Overview and Forecast on Forestry Productions Worldwide

Our world is largely dependent upon the forestry productions. Through the exploitation of forest reserves, we manufacture various industrial products, furniture, and obtain fuel and energy. Forestry productions should be conducted without large-scale deforestation and environmental degradation. In present study we perform a review and forecast analysis on forestry productions worldwide, with the objectives of providing an insight into the trend for several types of forestry productions in the future, and providing referential data for sustainable forestry productions and environmental management. Polynomial functions are used to fit trajectories of forestry productions since 1961 and forecasts during the coming 20 years are given in detail. If the past pattern continues, world fibreboard production would dramatically grow and reach 224,300,000 ± 44,400,000 m³ by the year 2020, an increase up to 240.7 to 408.9% as compared to the present level. Roundwood production of the world would change by −55.5 to 70.4% and reach 3,526,600,000 ± 2,066,800,000 m³ by 2020. In 2020 world production of sawlogs and veneer logs would change by −100 to 164.6% and reach 1,212,900,000 ± 1,242,600,000 m³. Global wood fuel production would change by −68.9 to 1.4% and reach 1,130,900,000 ± 600,800,000 m³ by 2020. Forestry productions in developed countries would largely surpass productions in developing countries in the near future. World forestry production grew since 1961 excluding wood fuel. Roundwood and wood fuel account for the critical proportions in the forestry productions. Wood fuel production has being declined and rapid growing of roundwood production has slowed in recent years. Widespread use of regenerative wood substitutes and worldwide afforestation against deforestation will be among the most effective ways to reduce deforestation and environment degradation associated with forestry productions.     

Increasing food production at the expense of tropical forests

An attempt is made to estimate to what extent it is possible to increase food production by conversion of forest land to agricultural land. To accomplish this two different approaches have been explored. The first one represents the possibility of developing a comprehensive model capable of taking into account the various processes influencing the food production. It is judged that this approach cannot provide a realistic result due to insufficient knowledge of the processes involved, and lack of reliable data. Instead a simple, heuristic method has been applied. The main sources of information used include data representing the soil of the deforested land, the decline of the productivity of the land gained, and the length of time it can be used for agricultural production. Although this method also has its obvious limitations, there are reasons to believe it permits certain conclusions can be safely drawn: (a) even if each year the area of agricultural land is increased by a given amount through removal of forest, there will be no gain of the agricultural production after a few years; and (b) to achieve a constant annual increase of the food production will require that each year the area of forest removal is increased. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A forecast analysis on fertilizers consumption worldwide

This study aimed to make a review and forecast on fertilizers consumption worldwide in order to provide basal data for the decision-making of fertilizers production and for the environmental impact assessment of fertilizers application. It was found that fertilizers consumption was dependent on human population and the increase of fertilizers consumption was mainly resulted from expansion of human population. The univariate linear model, y=a+rx(t), where y is the fertilizers consumption, x(t) is the total human population at year t, r is the annual fertilizers consumption per capita, was used to fit historical data of fertilizers consumption, and the forecasts during 2010 to 2030 were given in detail. Model analysis showed that world’s per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers, were 34.6, 24.4, 6.6, and 3.7 kg, respectively. Per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers for Asia, Africa, Caribbean, Oceania, North & Central America, Europe, and South America were 38.8, 5.9, 6.8, 114.0, 62.9, −0.9, and 43.6 kg, respectively. Compared to the current level, the world’s total fertilizers consumption would reach 226,150,381 Mt by 2030, an increase of 32.1% against current level. Worldwide consumption of nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers would reach 141,800,601, 50,961,129, and 33,388,650 Mt by 2030, increasing 37.5, 25.8, and 21.2% based on current levels. Consumption of total, nitrogenous, phosphate, and potash fertilizers in Asia and Africa would increase 54 to 55% and 40 to 60% by 2030, respectively. Total fertilizers consumption in North & Central America would see an increase of 39.4% by 2030, and in South America and Oceania it would increase by 30.9 and 64.7%, respectively. By 2030, Caribbean’s consumption for total fertilizers would increase 2.8%. Europe’s total fertilizers consumption was forecast to continuously decline and would have a decrease of 2.4% by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for the world, Africa, Asia, and South America were forecast to decrease in the forecast period. For North & Central America, annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and nitrogenous fertilizers would decrease and the others would increase annually by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for Oceania were forecast to rise annually by 2030. Europe’s annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and potash fertilizers would decrease in the future.     

Mapping Economic Returns to Agriculture for Informing Environmental Policy in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

We integrate information from several disparate data sources including agricultural statistics and remote sensing to quantify and map the distribution and dynamics of agricultural returns to land and water resources from 1996/1997 to 2000/2001 in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. Total profit to agriculture was estimated at AUD3.86B in 1996/1997 and AUD3.73B in 2000/2001. The mapping reveals a high spatial concentration of economic returns to land and water resources from agriculture. Dryland agriculture covers over 82% of the study area. Irrigated agriculture covers 1.7% of the land area (2000/2001) but returns one third of the total profit to agriculture. We found that around 80% of the profit to agriculture comes from just over 5% of the land area. The results from this regional scale economic mapping can inform regulatory policy and public investments in natural resource management through targeting industries and regions that provide low marginal returns to the natural resource base.     

Meat,Dairy and Climate Change: Assessing the Long-Term Mitigation Potential of Alternative Agri-Food Consumption Patterns in Canada

We use a newly developed model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess the climate change mitigation potential of different agri-food consumption patterns in Canada. For this, our model has been extended by disaggregating the agricultural demand sector into individual agri-food demands to allow for a more in-depth analysis. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have constructed four different agri-food scenarios to assess the viability of reducing Canadian meat and dairy consumption in order to diminish Canada’s agricultural sector energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our policy scenarios progressively restrict the consumption of different meat and dairy agricultural products until the year 2030. Our results suggest that the implementation of a meat and dairy consumption reduction policy would lead to a 10 to 40 % reduction in agricultural GHG emissions, depending on the severity of the scenario. This translates to a 1 to 3 % decrease in total Canadian GHG emissions by the year 2030. Besides these environmental benefits, health benefits associated with a reduction in meat and dairy consumption (as inferred from other studies) are presented as an additional source of motivation for implementing such a policy in Canada.     

Monitoring land use/land cover changes using CORINE land cover data: a case study of Silivri coastal zone in Metropolitan Istanbul

The objective of the present study was to assess changes in land use/land cover patterns in the coastal town of Silivri, a part of greater Istanbul administratively. In the assessment, remotely sensed data, in the form of satellite images, and geographic information systems were used. Types of land use/land cover were designated as the percentage of the total area studied. Results calculated from the satellite data for land cover classification were compared successfully with the database Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE). This served as a reference to appraise the reliability of the study presented here. The CORINE Program was established by the European Commission to create a harmonized Geographical Information System on the state of the environment in the European Community. Unplanned urbanization is causing land use changes mainly in developing countries such as Turkey. This situation in Turkey is frequently observed in the city of Istanbul. There are only a few studies of land use–land cover changes which provide an integrated assessment of the biophysical and societal causes and consequences of environmental degradation in Istanbul. The research area comprised greater Silivri Town which is situated by the coast of Marmara Sea, and it is located approximately 60 km west of Istanbul. The city of Istanbul is one of the largest metropolises in Europe with ca. 15 million inhabitants. Additionally, greater Silivri is located near the terminal point of the state highway connecting Istanbul with Europe. Measuring of changes occurring in land use would help control future planning of settlements; hence, it is of importance for the Gretaer Silivri and Silivri Town. Following our evaluations, coastal zone of Silivri was classified into the land use groups of artificial surfaces agricultural areas and forests and seminatural areas with 47.1%, 12.66%, and 22.62%, respectively.     

Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources

It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m³ in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.     

Using landsat data to determine land use/land cover changes in Samsun, Turkey

The rapid industrialization and urbanization of an area require quick preparation of actual land use/land cover (LU/LC) maps in order to detect and avoid overuse and damage of the landscape beyond sustainable development limits. Remote sensing technology fits well for long-term monitoring and assessment of such effects. The aim of this study was to analyze LU/LC changes between 1980 and 1999 in Samsun, Turkey, using satellite images. Three Landsat images from 1980, 1987 and 1999 were used to determine changes. A post classification technique was used based on a hybrid classification approach (unsupervised and supervised). Images were classified into six LU/LC types; urban, agriculture, dense forest, open forest-hazelnut, barren land and water area. It is found that significant changes in land cover occurred over the study period. The results showed an increase in urban, open forest/hazelnut, barren land and water area and a decrease in agriculture and dense forest in between 1980 and 1999. In this period, urban land increased from 0.77% to 2.47% of the total area, primarily due to conversions from agricultural land and forest to a lesser degree. While the area of dense forest decreased from 41.09% to 29.64% of the total area, the area of open forest and hazelnut increased from 6.73% to 11.88%.     

Modeling land use/land cover change using remote sensing and geographic information systems: case study of the Seyhan Basin,Turkey

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes affect several natural environmental factors, including soil erosion, hydrological balance, biodiversity, and the climate, which ultimately impact societal well-being. Therefore, LULC changes are an important aspect of land management. One method used to analyze LULC changes is the mathematical modeling approach. In this study, Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA-MC) models were used to predict the LULC changes in the Seyhan Basin in Turkey that are likely to occur by 2036. Satellite multispectral imagery acquired in the years 1995, 2006, and 2016 were classified using the object-based classification method and used as the input data for the CA-MC model. Subsequently, the post-classification comparison technique was used to determine the parameters of the model to be simulated. The Markov Chain analyses and the multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) method were used to produce a transition probability matrix and land suitability maps, respectively. The model was validated using the Kappa index, which reached an overall level of 77%. Finally, the LULC changes were mapped for the year 2036 based on transition rules and a transition area matrix. The LULC prediction for the year 2036 showed a 50% increase in the built-up area class and a 7% decrease in the open spaces class compared to the LULC status of the reference year 2016. About an 8% increase in agricultural land is also likely to occur in 2036. About a 4% increase in shrub land and a 5% decrease in forest areas are also predicted.     

Analysing urban expansion and land use suitability for the city of Kahramanmaraş, Turkey, and its surrounding region

This study aimed at quantifying changes in urban area of the city of Kahramanmara? (K.Mara?) between 1948 and 2006, and analysing suitability of existing land use (LU) to the land potential. Urban change information was derived from two black-white monoscopic aerial photographs, and IKONOS and the QuickBird images acquired in 1948, 1985, 2000 and 2006, respectively. QuickBird image and soil map with 1:25,000 scale were used to analyze suitability of the current LU pattern to the land potential. The findings showed that the urban area of K.Mara? has expanded approximately 13 times during the past six decades. According to current LU and the soil map, productive and moderately productive soils were largely (73.2%) allocated for agricultural activities, which means that there was a strong consistency between the agricultural LU type and the land capability. However, widespread agriculture on the non-productive soils, and urbanization on the fertile agricultural lands were assessed as unsuitable from sustainable LU viewpoint. Considering this phenomenon, it is possible to say that rapid urban expansion has a growing pressure on the fertile agricultural soils. Monitoring LU changes, particularly urbanization, and developing effective LU plans based on the land capability were determined as the most important approaches to encourage sustainable use of land.     

A landscape-based reconnaissance survey of estrogenic activity in streams of the upper Potomac,upper James,and Shenandoah Rivers,USA

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) are becoming of increasing concern in waterways of the USA and worldwide. What remains poorly understood, however, is how prevalent these emerging contaminants are in the environment and what methods are best able to determine landscape sources of EDCs. We describe the development of a spatially structured sampling design and a reconnaissance survey of estrogenic activity along gradients of land use within sub-watersheds. We present this example as a useful approach for state and federal agencies with an interest in identifying locations potentially impacted by EDCs that warrant more intensive, focused research. Our study confirms the importance of agricultural activities on levels of a measured estrogenic equivalent (E2Eq) and also highlights the importance of other potential sources of E2Eq in areas where intensive agriculture is not the dominant land use. Through application of readily available geographic information system (GIS) data, coupled with spatial statistical analysis, we demonstrate the correlation of specific land use types to levels of estrogenic activity across a large area in a consistent and unbiased manner.     

Linking Land Cover and Water Quality in New York City’S Water Supply Watersheds

The Catskill/Delaware reservoirs supply 90% of New York City’s drinking water. The City has implemented a series of watershed protection measures, including land acquisition, aimed at preserving water quality in the Catskill/Delaware watersheds. The objective of this study was to examine how relationships between landscape and surface water measurements change between years. Thirty-two drainage areas delineated from surface water sample points (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria concentrations) were used in step-wise regression analyses to test landscape and surface-water quality relationships. Two measurements of land use, percent agriculture and percent urban development, were positively related to water quality and consistently present in all regression models. Together these two land uses explained 25 to 75% of the regression model variation. However, the contribution of agriculture to water quality condition showed a decreasing trend with time as overall agricultural land cover decreased. Results from this study demonstrate that relationships between land cover and surface water concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria counts over a large area can be evaluated using a relatively simple geographic information system method. Land managers may find this method useful for targeting resources in relation to a particular water quality concern, focusing best management efforts, and maximizing benefits to water quality with minimal costs.The United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development funded and managed the research described here. It has been subjected to Agency’s administrative review and approved for publication as an EPA document.     

Spatio-temporal pattern and rationality of land reclamation and cropland abandonment in mid-eastern Inner Mongolia of China in 1990�C2005

The Mid-eastern Inner Mongolia of China, a typical agro-pastoral transitional zone, has undergone rapid agricultural land use changes including land reclamation and cropland abandonment in past decades due to growing population and food demand, climatic variability, and land use policy such as the "Grain for Green" Project (GFG Project). It is significant to the regional ecology and sustainability to examine the pattern and its rationality of land use change. The processes of land reclamation and cropland abandonment were accessed by using land use change dataset for four periods of 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005, derived from the interpretation of Landsat TM images. And then the rationality of land reclamation and cropland abandonment was analyzed based on the habitat suitability for cultivation. The results indicated that: (1) land reclamation was the dominant form of agricultural land use change from 1990 to 2005, the total cropland area increased from 64,954.64 km(2) in 1990 to 76,258.51 km(2) in 2005; However, the speed of land reclamation decreased while cropland abandonment increased around 2000. The Land Reclamation Degree decreased from 1995-2000 to 2000-2005, meanwhile, Cropland Abandonment Degree increased. (2) As for the habitat suitability levels, moderately and marginally suitable levels had largest areas where cropland was widespread. Pattern of agricultural land use trended to become more rational due to the decrease of land reclamation area in low suitable levels and the increase of cropland abandonment in unsuitable area after 2000. (3) The habitat suitability-based rationality analysis of agricultural land use implicated that the GFG Project should take cultivation habitat suitability assessment into account.     

Global warming potential of food waste through the life cycle assessment: An analytical review

Food loss and waste represent an increasing concern under social, economic and environmental perspective, either in developed or developing realities. It is estimated that more than 1.3 billion tons of food waste are generated along the whole food supply chain, from agricultural to final consumption stages, with associated environmental impacts estimated in approximately 3.3 Gigatons of CO₂ equivalent per year (6% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions). Indeed, food waste issue has been accounted among the 17 Sustainable Development Goals in terms of responsible production and consumption, with the aim of halving per capita global food waste and reduce food losses by 2030. The present paper, through a systematic, analytical and configurative review on food waste global warming potential, focuses on the role of Life Cycle Assessment and its related opportunities and challenges along upstream, core and downstream stages, considering at the same time the challenges embedded within alternative disposal technologies. Through the choice of 16 different research string and the selection of 33 papers out of more than 2000 articles between 2011 and 2021, the authors highlight the environmental impacts associated to food waste with regards to: (a) entire food baskets; (b) specific food commodities; (c) food service and households' experiences; (d) diverse disposal alternatives (e.g., anaerobic digestion, incineration, landfill), addressing future research and suitable opportunities to reach national and international sustainable goals.     

Decomposition of energy consumption and its decoupling with economic growth in the global agricultural industry

The development of mechanization and technology has triggered the growing energy consumption in the agricultural industry. Energy saving in the agriculture industry becomes equally essential with that in the manufacturing, building, and transportation industries. The implementation of reducing energy consumption should be without costing the agricultural production, which is closely related to the food security of human beings. Strong decoupling between energy consumption and economic growth indicates the former decreases while the latter grows, which should be pursued by nations. Therefore, as the first research objective, this study analyzed the decoupling statuses between energy consumption and economic growth in the agricultural industry of 89 countries whose data exist across the period of 2000 to 2016. As a result, only 18 countries have reached strong decoupling. Secondly, this study decomposed agricultural energy consumption in the 89 countries to the effects of a driving factor (i.e., agricultural economic output) and three inhibiting factors (i.e., agricultural land, labor intensity, and energy intensity in descending order). With the identified decoupling statuses, this study provides a substantial understanding of the relationship between agricultural energy consumption and production from a global perspective. Meanwhile, the decomposed factors and corresponding policy implications provide evidence for decision makers of each nation to tailor energy-saving strategies in its agricultural industry.     

Groundwater stress and vulnerability in rural coastal aquifers under competing demands: a case study from Sri Lanka

Rural coastal aquifers are undergoing rapid changes due to increasing population, high water demand with expanding agricultural and domestic uses, and seawater intrusion due to unmanaged water pumping. The combined impact of these activities is the deterioration of groundwater quality, public health concerns, and unsustainable water demands. The Kalpitiya peninsula located northwest of Sri Lanka is one area undergoing such changes. This land area is limited and surrounded almost completely by sea and lagoon. This study consists of groundwater sampling and analysis, and vulnerability assessment using the DRASTIC method. The results reveal that the peninsula is experiencing multiple threats due to population growth, seawater intrusion, land use exploitation for intensive agriculture, groundwater vulnerability from agricultural and domestic uses, and potential public health impacts. Results show that nitrate is a prevalent and serious contaminant occurring in large concentrations (up to 128 mg/l NO₃?CN), while salinity from seawater intrusion produces high chloride content (up to 471 mg/l), affecting freshwater sources. High nitrate levels may have already affected public health based on limited sampling for methemoglobin. The two main sources of nitrogen loadings in the area are fertilizer and human excreta. The major source of nitrogen results from the use of fertilizers and poor management of intense agricultural systems where a maximum application rate of up to 11.21 metric tons N/km² per season is typical. These findings suggest that management of coastal aquifers requires an integrated approach to address both the prevalence of agriculture as an economic livelihood, and increasing population growth.     

Benthic communities of streams related to different land uses in a hydrographic basin in southern Brazil

Different land uses affect the characteristics of a hydrographic basin, reflected in the river water quality, and consequently affecting the aquatic biota. The benthic community closely reflects the alterations caused by different human activities. In this study, the effects of different land uses were evaluated by analysis of the benthic community structure in streams with urban, agricultural and pasturage influences, as well as areas in better-conserved regions. The abiotic parameters showed distinct seasonal variability, which did not occur with the benthic organisms. A degradation gradient was observed among the study sites, in the headwaters-agriculture-pasture-urban direction. By the CCA its possible to observe that the density of organisms tended to increase along this gradient, whereas richness, diversity, evenness, and EPT families decreased. The most intense effects of land use on the benthic community composition, richness, and diversity were observed in urban areas (F (1,4) = 16.0, p = 0.01; F (1,4) = 8.97, p = 0.04; respectively). In conclusion a trend in the benthic community is observed in to predict alterations caused for the different land uses, mainly, when the source point pollution, as the case of urban area.     

Basal soil monitoring scheme in the protected areas of the Czech Republic

The purpose and aims of environmental monitoring are discussed, particularly in the context of soils as part of the environment, and examples of such schemes currently in operation within Europe are outlined. These are compared with the Basal Soil Monitoring Scheme (BSMS) in the Czech Republic which is the product of collaboration between the Ministries of Agriculture and the Environment and five agricultural, forestry and environmental research institutes. The BSMS consists of over 250 monitoring plots covering three distinct land uses: agriculture, forestry and environmentally protected areas. Each land use class has its own subsystem of monitoring plots which together comprise the whole system. The main principles and methodologies employed in the environmentally protected areas of the Czech Republic are described in some detail.     

Early-season agricultural drought: detection, assessment and monitoring using Shortwave Angle and Slope Index (SASI) data

Early season or crop-planting-period (ES/CPP) drought conditions have become a recurrent phenomenon in tropical countries like India, due to fluctuations in the time of onset and progression of monsoon rains. ES/CPP agricultural drought assessment is a major challenge because of the difficulties in the generation of operational products on soil moisture at larger scales. The present study analyzed the Shortwave Angle Slope Index (SASI) derived from Near Infrared and Shortwave Infrared data of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, for tracking surface moisture changes and assessing the agricultural drought conditions during ES/CPP, over Andhra Pradesh state, India. It was found that in-season progression of SASI was well correlated with rainfall and crop planting patterns in different districts of the study area state in both drought and normal years. Rainfall occurrence, increase in crop planted area, and decrease in SASI were in chronological synchronization in the season. Change in SASI from positive to negative values is a unique indication of dryness to wetness shift in the season. Duration of positive SASI values indicated the persistence of agricultural drought in the crop planting period. Mean SASI values were able to discriminate an area which was planted in normal year and unplanted in drought year. SASI thresholds provide an approximate and rapid estimate of the crop planting favorable area in a region which is useful to assess the impact of drought. Thus, SASI is a potential index to strengthen the existing operational drought monitoring systems. Further work needs to be on the integration of multiple parameters—SASI, soil texture, soil depth, rainfall and cropping pattern, to evolve a geospatial product on crop planting favorable areas. Such products pave the way for quantification of drought impact on agriculture in the early part of the season, which is a major inadequacy in the current drought monitoring system.