Potential and Cost of Carbon Sequestration in the Tanzanian Forest Sector

The forest sector in Tanzania offers ample opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and sequester carbon (C) in terrestrial ecosystems. More than 90% of the country's demand for primary energy is obtained from biomass mostly procured unsustainably from natural forests. This study examines the potential to sequester C through expansion of forest plantations aimed at reducing the dependence on natural forest for wood fuel production, as well as increase the country's output of industrial wood from plantations. These were compared ton conservationoptions in the tropical and miombo ecosystems. Three sequestrationoptions were analyzed, involving the establishment of short rotation and long rotation plantations on about 1.7 × 10⁶ hectares. The short rotation community forestry option has a potential to sequester an equilibrium amount of 197.4 × 10⁶ Mg C by 2024 at a net benefit of 79.5 × 10⁶, while yielding a NPV of 0.46 Mg^-1 C. The long rotation options for softwood and hardwood plantations will reach an equilibrium sequestration of 5.6 and 11.8 × 10⁶ Mg C at a negative NPV of 0.60 Mg^-1 C and 0.32 Mg^-1 C. The three options provide cost competitive opportunities for sequestering about 7.5 × 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1 while providing desired forest products and easing the pressure on the natural forests in Tanzania. The endowment costs of the sequestration options were all found to be cheaper than the emission avoidance cost for conservation options which had an average cost of 1.27 Mg^-1 C, rising to 7.5 Mg^-1 C under some assumptions on vulnerability to encroachment. The estimates shown here may represent the upper bound, because the actual potential will be influenced by market prices for inputs and forest products, land use policy constraints and the structure of global C transactions.     

Global Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Forest Management — The Challenge of Monitoring and Verification

In this paper, sustainable forest management is discussed within the historical and theoretical framework of the sustainable development debate. The various criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management put forth by different, institutions are critically explored. Specific types of climate change mitigation policies/projects in the forest sector are identified and examined in the light of the general, criteria for sustainable forest management. Areas of compatibility and contradiction between the climate mitigation objectives and the minimum criteria for sustainable forest management are identified and discussed. Emphasis is put on the problems of monitoring and verifying carbon benefits associated with such projects given their impacts on pre-existing policy objectives on sustainable forest, management. The implications of such policy interactions on assignment of carbon credits from forest projects under Joint Implementation/Activities Implemented Jointly initiatives are discussed. The paper concludes that a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime must include an impact assessment on the criteria covered under other agreements such as the Biodiversity and/or Desertification Conventions. The actual carbon credit assigned to a specific project should at least take into account the negative impacts on the criteria for sustainable forest management. The value of the impacts and/or the procedure to evaluate them need to be established by interested parties such as the Councils of the respective Conventions.     

Monitoring Needs to Transform Amazonian Forest Maintenance Into a Global Warming-Mitigation Option

Two approaches are frequently mentioned in proposals to use tropical forest maintenance as a carbon offset. One is to set up, specific reserves, funding the establishment, demarcation, and guarding of these units. Monitoring, in this case, consists of the relatively straightforward process of confirming that the forest stands in question continue to exist. In Amazonia, where large expanses of tropical forest still exist, the reserve approach has the logical weakness of being completely open to “leakage”: with the implantation of any given reserve, the people who would have been deforesting in the reserve area will probably continue to clear the same amount of forest somewhere else in the region. The second approach is through policy changes aimed at reducing the rate of clearing, but not limited to specific reserves or areas of forest. This second approach addresses more fundamental aspects of the tropical deforestation problem, but has the disadvantages of not assuring the permance of forest and of not resulting in a visible product that can be convincingly credited, to the existence of the project. In order for credit to be assigned to policy change projects, functioning models of the deforestation process must be developed that are capable of producing seenarios with and without different policy changes. This requires understanding the process of deforestation, which depends on monitoring in order to have information as a time series. Information is needed both from satellite imagery and from on-the-ground observations on who occupies the land and why the observed changes occur. Monitoring must be done by individual property if causal factors are to be identified reliably; this is best achieved using a database in a Geographical, Information System (GIS) that includes property boundaries. Once policy changes are made in practice, not only deforestation but also the policies themselves must be monitored. Deerees and laws are not the same as changes in practice; the initiation and continued application of changes must therefore be confirmed regularly. The value of carbon benefits from Amazonia depends directly on the credibility and transparency of monitoring. The great potential value of carbon maintenance in Amazonia should provide ample reason for Amazonian countries to strengthen and increase the transparency of their monitoring efforts.     

中国自然灾害和减灾的对策

2006年5月9日防灾科技学院揭牌暨建校30周年庆典之际,马宗晋院士应邀为我校师生作了题为“中国自然灾害和减灾的对策”的学术报告,受到全校师生的热烈欢迎和一致好评。马宗晋院士是我国著名的地质学家,曾担任中国地震局地质研究所所长（现为中国地震局地质研究所名誉所长）,长期从事地质构造、地震预报、地球动力学方面的研究工作,完成了多项国家级重大研究课题。1972年,他率领地震小组,首创渐进式预报模式,提出长中短临渐近蕴震模式,成为中国预报强震的主要思想和工作程序,该模式的预报思想一直影响至今。其间,对海城、松潘等大地震的预测,乃至对唐山大地震的中期估计和短期预报分析都有重要影响,该模式在国际上被誉为“中国式地震预报”;他还提出了地球动力学的模式构想,建立了三个全球的构造系统,论证了地球变动的韵律性和非对称性,从而提出以壳、幔、核细分层角差运动为基础的地球自转与热、重、流联合的动力模式构想,对全球构造动力模式进行了新的分析与综合,为灾害和矿产研究提供了部分基础;提出了综合减灾系统工程设计。马宗晋院士1995年兼任国务院三部委中国重大自然灾害综合研究组组长;2005年任国家减灾委专家委员会主任。 马宗晋院士的报告以大量的研究数据系统地论述了中国的自然灾害和减灾的对策。我国是一个灾害频发、灾种繁多、灾情严重、经济损失巨大的国家,很好的学习和掌握马宗晋院士报告的观点和精神,对于推进我国的防灾减灾事业和从事防灾减灾教育事业均具有十分重要的意义。 我学报编辑部在认真学习和整理马宗晋院士报告的基础上,决定在学报的“院士专家论谈”专题栏目,陆续刊载以“中国自然灾害和减灾的对策”为题的系列文章,并经马院士同意和审核,马智同志编辑整理。我们认为,这对于全国各地从事防灾减灾事业的部门和工作人员,是十分有帮助的。希望各地从事防灾减灾事业和其他工作的读者能够关注这个栏目。[编者按]     

Influence of Methodology and Assumptions on Reported National Carbon Flux Inventories: An Illustration from the Canadian Forest Sector

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed guidelines to standardize the international reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by signatory nations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. With regard to forest sector carbon fluxes, the IPCC guidelines require only that those fluxes directly associated with human activities (i.e., harvesting and land-use change) be reported. In Canada, the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) has been used to assess carbon fluxes from the entire forest sector. This model accounts for carbon fluxes associated with both anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as wild fires and insects. We combined model results for the period 1985 to 1989 with additional data to compile seven different national carbon flux inventories for the forest sector. These inventories incorporate different system components under a variety of seemingly plausible assumptions, some of which are encouraged refinements to the default flux inventory described in the IPCC guidelines. The resulting estimated net carbon fluxes varied from a net removal of 185,000 kt carbon per year of the inventory period to a netemission of 89,000 kt carbon per year. Following the default procedures in the IPCC guidelines, while using the best available national data, produced an inventory with a net removal of atmospheric carbon. Adding the effect of natural disturbances to that inventory reversed the sign of the net flux resulting in a substantial emission. Including the carbon fluxes associated with root biomass in the first inventory increased the magnitude of the estimated net removal. The variability of these results emphasizes the need for a systems approach in constructing a flux inventory. We argue that the choice of which fluxes to include in the inventory should be based on the importance of these fluxes to the overall carbon budget and not on the perceived ease with which flux estimates can be obtained. The results of this analysis also illustrate two specific points. Even those Canadian forests which are most free from direct human interactions—forests in which no commercial harvesting occurs—are not in equilibrium, and their contribution to national carbon fluxes should be included in the reported flux inventory. Moreover, those forest areas that are subject to direct management are still substantially impacted by natural disturbances. The critical effect of inventory methodology and assumptions on inventory results has important ramifications for efforts to “monitor” and “verify” programs aimed at mitigating global carbon emissions.     

Developing Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System to Meet the Reporting Requirements of the Kyoto Protocol

The rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere can be reduced by decreasing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and by increasing the net uptake (or reducing the net loss) of carbon in terrestrial (and aquatic) ecosystems. The Kyoto Protocol addresses both the release and uptake of carbon. Canada is developing a National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System in support of its international obligations to report greenhouse gas sources and sinks. This system employs forest-inventory data, growth and yield information, and statistics on natural disturbances, management actions and land-use change to estimate forest carbon stocks, changes in carbon stocks, and emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases. A key component of the system is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS). The model is undergoing extensive revisions to enable analyses at four spatial scales (national, provincial, forest management unit and stand) and in annual time steps. The model and the supporting databases can be used to assess carbon-stock changes between 1990 and the present, and to predict future carbon-stock changes based on scenarios of future disturbance rates and management actions.     

Forest Management for Mitigation of CO2 Emissions: How Much Mitigation and Who Gets the Credits?

Forestry projects can mitigate the net flux of carbon (C) to the atmosphere in four ways: (1) C is stored in forest biomass—trees, litter and soil, (2) C is stored in durable wood products, (3) biomass fuels displace consumption of fossil fuels, and (4) wood products often require less fossil-fuel energy for their production and use than do alternate products that provide the same service. We use a mathematical model of C stocks and flows (GORCAM) to illustrate the inter-relationships among these impacts on the C cycle and the changing C balance over time. The model suggests that sustainable management for the harvest of forest products will yield more net C offset than will forest protection when forest productivity is high, forest products are produced and used efficiently, and longer time periods are considered. Yet it is very difficult to attribute all of the C offsets to the forestry projects. It is, at least in concept, straightforward to measure, verify, and attribute the C stored in the forests and in wood products. It is more challenging to measure the amount of fossil fuel saved directly because of the use of biomass fuels and to give proper attribution to a mitigation project. The amount of fossil fuel saved indirectly because biomass provides materials and services that are used in place of other materials and services may be very difficult to estimate and impossible to allocate to any project. Nonetheless, over the long run, these two aspects of fossil fuel saved may be the largest impacts of forestry projects on the global C cycle.     

A Framework for Monitoring and Evaluating Carbon Mitigation by Farm Forestry Projects: Example of a Demonstration Project in Chiapas,Mexico

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - In Mexico an estimated 4.5 × 106ha are available for farm forestry, while up to 6.1 × 106 ha could be saved from deforestation by...     

浅谈我国铁合金行业产业政策及环保标准

铁合金行业由于能耗高、污染严重，一直是国家限制发展的产业，国家的产业政策和环保标准是国家宏观调控铁合金行业的重要措施。本文集中地阐述和分析了我国现阶段铁合金行业的各项产业政策和环保标准，明确了铁合金行业发展及改进的方向。     

城市热岛缓解措施定量比较研究

城市热岛是城市气象及全球变化研究热点。本文对城市热岛形成机理进行了分析,并且在此基础上提出了缓解城市热岛的三种措施,即:减少人为热排放、增加反照率和城市绿化。本文采用城市陆面模式(Integrated urban land surface model,简称IUM)对不同措施下城市地表温度进行模拟。敏感性分析表明,三种措施都能够不同程度的缓解城市热岛尤其是白天城市热岛。     

中国自然灾害和减灾对策(之二)

我国人口众多，国土面积广阔，地质结构、地理环境、气候条件复杂多样，加之以，住很孝年堕三弹牛态环磊的保护和人为的因素，致使多种自然灾害频发，给人民生命财产造成惨重损失，也严重阻碍了社会经济的健康发展。     

中国自然灾害和减灾对策(之三)——我国的地震灾害及其应对

地震是指地壳的天然震动,同台风、暴雨、洪水、雷电等一样,是一种自然现象.在所有的自然灾害中,地震最为危险.它在短短几秒钟内突然降临,令人难有机会逃生.     

中国自然灾害和减灾对策(之四)——开拓"综合减灾"新理念

中华几千年的文明史中积累着以众多灾民的生命和财富为代价的灾害史记,特别是近两千年自然灾害所呈现巨灾事件时空分布的规律性,以及与灾害伴生的一些"异常现象"和思考都正在为我们现代人得以发掘、引用和研究,这是十分宝贵的灾情史料.新中国成立以后,伴随一次次巨大自然灾害的发生,党和政府逐步建立了专业性的和兼业性的减灾机构.几十年来,这样一些专科性灾事的研究单位和工程单位,对各类灾害的形成机理和预测的能力已取得了重要的进展,对各类巨灾对社会的影响也取得了一些基本认识.就目前国内外对单灾种的预测能力来看,单灾种的研究仍然是基础性的,不可或缺,但对全社会的减灾来说,则必须开拓减灾多要素的综合发展,编制全社会"减灾系统工程".     

中国自然灾害和减灾对策(之六)——提高减灾效益,用科学观念指导各领域的减灾工作

环境恶化和突发灾害是威胁人类生存的两大挑战性问题.由人类活动导致的自然环境破坏和恶化是一个长期累积的过程,类似于人体所患的慢性疾病,对其的认识和解决不仅依靠多种条件,还要很长时间的持久努力;自然灾害的发生则一般是短时间内的突然事件,类似人体的急性疾病.     

中国自然灾害和减灾对策(之五)——开拓"综合减灾"新理念

近年世界上自然灾害损失增长日益严重,联合国副秘书长杨·埃格兰向联合国第61次大会报告了《国际减灾战略的执行情况》,近年内115个国家因自然灾害有93 000人丧生,经济损失比前十年平均值高出2.6倍、水灾次数大约高出50%.     

河北省农村地区防震减灾意识调查及对策研究

通过问卷调查和深度访谈,发现河北省农村地区防震减灾意识现状不客乐观,突出表现为:对地震预报存在认识误区、震害防御意识淡薄、应急救援能力欠缺、防震减灾宣传有待深化、地震灾害中信息获取能力不足.究其原因:农村地区经济发展水平、农村社会人员结构和基层地震部门软硬件条件制约了防震减灾意识的提升.因此,相关部门应该因时、因地制宜...     

Climate Change Mitigation Activities in the Philippine Forestry Sector: Application of the COMAP Model

The forest sector in the Philippines has the potential to be amajor sink for carbon (C). The present study was conducted to evaluatepotential forestry mitigation options in the Philippines using the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP)model. The baseline scenario (BAU) assumes that current trends continue upto the year 2030 (`business-as-usual'). Two mitigation scenarios wereevaluated: high scenario (HS) and low scenario (LS). The former ispatterned largely from the government's forest master plan while thelatter assumes a 50% lower success rate of the master plan.The results of the analyses show that by 2030, the total C stock of thePhilippine forest sector in the baseline scenario decreases to 814× 10⁶ Mg C,down by 37% compared to the 1990 level. The C stocks of the HS andLS mitigation scenarios were 22% and 18% higher than the BAU,respectively. Of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantationsand forest protection activities produce the greatest C gain (199 and 104× 10⁶ Mg, respectively under HS). The not present value (NPV)of benefits is highest in the bioenergyoption with $24.48 per Mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a realdiscount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life cycle costs arealso highest using bioenergy.The study also estimated potential investments needed under the mitigationscenarios. The investment requirement for the LS amounts to $263× 10⁶ while for the HS it is $748 × 10⁶. Finally, policy issues anddecisions that may be useful for the Philippines to evaluate LULUCFmitigation options under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, are identified anddiscussed.     

铁路振动的监测、评价及防治措施

对昆明南站附近住宅小区铁路振动进行环境监测、结果分析、评价和讨论,分析了存在的主要问题,提出相应的防治措施.     

浅谈环境监测部门实验室仪器设备管理

仪器设备是实验室固定资产的重要组成部分,是保证环境监测、科研顺利进行的物质条件.随着社会和科学技术的发展.仪器的种类、数量越来越多,功能和自动化程度越来越高,对实验室来说,仪器设备所占资金的比重相当大.合理使用仪器设备是保证监测数据的科学性、准确性和可靠性的重要举措.根据目前实验室仪器设备管理制度存在的问题.提出一些探讨和整改建议.     

大气二氧化碳与未来森林

大气二氧化碳含量正在以每年０．４％的速度增加，对森林产生越来越明显的影响，对未来林业提出七个方面的挑战：温度变化、水的变化、气候变化、虫害和火灾变化、新基因的需要、造林与经营、加速研究进程，对此应尽快作出估价。