Climate Impact Response Functions for Terrestrial Ecosystems

We introduce climate impact response functions as a means for summarizing and visualizing the responses of climate-sensitive sectors to changes in fundamental drivers of global climate change. In an inverse application, they allow the translation of thresholds for climate change impacts (‘impact guard-rails’) into constraints for climate and atmospheric composition parameters (‘climate windows’). It thus becomes feasible to specify long-term objectives for climate protection with respect to the impacts of climate change instead of crude proxy variables, like the change in global mean temperature. We apply the method to assess impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, using the threat to protected areas as the central impact indicator. Future climate states are characterized by geographically and seasonally explicit climate change patterns for temperature, precipitation and cloud cover, and by their atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The patterns are based on the results of coupled general circulation models. We study the sensitivity of the impact indicators and the corresponding climate windows to the spatial coverage of the analysis and to different climate change projections. This enables us to identify the most sensitive biomes and regions, and to determine those factors which significantly influence the results of the impact assessment. Based on the analysis, we conclude that climate impact response functions are a valuable means for the representation of climate change impacts across a wide range of plausible futures. They are particularly useful in integrated assessment models of climate change based on optimizing or inverse approaches where the on-line simulation of climate impacts by sophisticated impact models is infeasible due to their high computational demand. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate Change Impacts and Human Settlements in Africa: Prospects for Adaptation

Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments.Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations.Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy.Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation.The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities.Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared.Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.     

Land quality,sustainable development and environmental degradation in agricultural districts: A computational approach based on entropy indexes

Land Degradation (LD) in socio-environmental systems negatively impacts sustainable development paths. This study proposes a framework to LD evaluation based on indicators of diversification in the spatial distribution of sensitive land. We hypothesize that conditions for spatial heterogeneity in a composite index of land sensitivity are more frequently associated to areas prone to LD than spatial homogeneity. Spatial heterogeneity is supposed to be associated with degraded areas that act as hotspots for future degradation processes. A diachronic analysis (1960–2010) was performed at the Italian agricultural district scale to identify environmental factors associated with spatial heterogeneity in the degree of land sensitivity to degradation based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI). In 1960, diversification in the level of land sensitivity measured using two common indexes of entropy (Shannon's diversity and Pielou's evenness) increased significantly with the ESAI, indicating a high level of land sensitivity to degradation. In 2010, surface area classified as “critical” to LD was the highest in districts with diversification in the spatial distribution of ESAI values, confirming the hypothesis formulated above. Entropy indexes, based on observed alignment with the concept of LD, constitute a valuable base to inform mitigation strategies against desertification.     

Hiking Trails and Tourism Impact Assessment In Protected Area: Jiuzhaigou Biosphere Reserve,China

More and more visitors are attracted to protected areas nowadays, which not only bring about economic increase but also seriously adverse impacts on the ecological environment. In protected areas, trails are linkage between visitors and natural ecosystem, so they concentrate most of the adverse impacts caused by visitors. The trampling problems on the trails have been received attentions in the tremendous researches. However, few of them have correlated the environmental impacts to trail spatial patterns. In this project, the trails were selected as assessment objective, the trampling problems trail widening, multiple trail, and root exposure were taken as assessment indicators to assess ecological impacts in the case study area Jiuzhaigou Biosphere Reserve, and two spatial index, connectivity and circularity, were taken to indicate the trail network spatial patterns. The research results showed that the appearing frequency of the trampling problems had inverse correlation with the circularity and connectivity of the trail network, while the problem extent had no correlation with the spatial pattern. Comparing with the pristine trails, the artificial maintenance for the trails such as wooden trails and flagstone trails could prohibit vegetation root from exposure effectively. The research finds will be useful for the future trail design and tourism management.     

Proximity analysis of air pollution exposure and its potential risk

Proximity analysis and spatial variability of the ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentration in Rayong province, Thailand, were analyzed using geostatistics and spatial modeling techniques. Annual concentrations of nitrogen dioxide were predicted and spatially interpolated using various interpolation techniques (i.e. kriging, IDW and spline). Sensitivity analysis was carried out to assure the accuracy of the predicted results. The GIS-based exposure map was simulated and was assisted to identify high exposure areas. A health risk warning system was set for "action" (exceeds 100% of the annual average NO(2) guideline), for "alert" (between 66-100% of the annual average NO(2) guideline) and for "some concern" (between 33-66% of the annual average NO(2) guideline). Although no areas were exposed to an action level, many locations in the study area could have levels of "some concern". Potential risk to the population was analyzed by spatial interpolation of the nitrogen dioxide concentration with population data. The result indicated the number of people exposed to air pollution, as well as the areas which have a high risk to air pollution. About 88.3% of the total population in the study area live in areas where levels of air pollution are designated as being in the "some concern" zone. About 6.7% of the registered population have their residence in an area where action should be taken for air quality management. The study demonstrates the application of GIS-based prediction for the evaluation of exposure mapping, in order to determine the spatial extent and frequency of areas where pollution levels exceed target values, and their potential health impacts.     

Heavy metals fractionation in surface sediments of Gowatr bay-Iran

Establishing the effectiveness of habitat features to act as surrogate measures of diversity and abundance of juvenile reef fish provides information that is critical to coral reef management. When accurately set on a broader spatial context, microhabitat information becomes more meaningful and its management application becomes more explicit. The goal of the study is to identify coral reef areas potentially important to juvenile fishes in Ngederrak Reef, Republic of Palau, across different spatial scales. To achieve this, the study requires the accomplishment of the following tasks: (1) structurally differentiate the general microhabitat types using acoustics; (2) quantify microhabitat association with juvenile reef fish community structure; and (3) conduct spatial analysis of the reef-wide data and locate areas optimal for juvenile reef fish settlement. The results strongly suggest the importance of branching structures in determining species count and abundance of juvenile reef fish at the outer reef slope of Ngederrak Reef. In the acoustic map, the accurate delineation of these features allowed us to identify reef areas with the highest potential to harbor a rich aggregation of juvenile reef fish. Using a developed spatial analysis tool that ranks pixel groups based on user-defined parameters, the reef area near the Western channel of Ngederrak is predicted to have the most robust aggregation of juvenile reef fish. The results have important implications not only in management, but also in modeling the impacts of habitat loss on reef fish community. At least for Ngederrak Reef, the results advanced the utility of acoustic systems in predicting spatial distribution of juvenile fish.     

Sampling Benthic Macroinvertebrates in a Large Flood-Plain River: Considerations of Study Design, Sample Size, and Cost

Estimation of benthic macroinvertebrate populations over large spatial scales is difficult due to the high variability in abundance and the cost of sample processing and taxonomic analysis. To determine a cost-effective, statistically powerful sample design, we conducted an exploratory study of the spatial variation of benthic macroinvertebrates in a 37 km reach of the Upper Mississippi River. We sampled benthos at 36 sites within each of two strata, contiguous backwater and channel border. Three standard ponar (525 cm²) grab samples were obtained at each site ('Original Design'). Analysis of variance and sampling cost of strata-wide estimates for abundance of Oligochaeta, Chironomidae, and total invertebrates showed that only one ponar sample per site ('Reduced Design') yielded essentially the same abundance estimates as the Original Design, while reducing the overall cost by 63%. A posteriori statistical power analysis ( = 0.05, = 0.20) on the Reduced Design estimated that at least 18 sites per stratum were needed to detect differences in mean abundance between contiguous backwater and channel border areas for Oligochaeta, Chironomidae, and total invertebrates. Statistical power was nearly identical for the three taxonomic groups. The abundances of several taxa of concern (e.g., Hexagenia mayflies and Musculium fingernail clams) were too spatially variable to estimate power with our method. Resampling simulations indicated that to achieve adequate sampling precision for Oligochaeta, at least 36 sample sites per stratum would be required, whereas a sampling precision of 0.2 would not be attained with any sample size for Hexagenia in channel border areas, or Chironomidae and Musculium in both strata given the variance structure of the original samples. Community-wide diversity indices (Brillouin and 1-Simpsons) increased as sample area per site increased. The backwater area had higher diversity than the channel border area. The number of sampling sites required to sample benthic macroinvertebrates during our sampling period depended on the study objective and ranged from 18 to more than 40 sites per stratum. No single sampling regime would efficiently and adequately sample all components of the macroinvertebrate community.     

Moving from reactive to proactive development planning to conserve Indigenous community and biodiversity values

There is increased awareness of the need to balance multiple societal values in land use and development planning. Best practice has promoted the use of landscape-level conservation planning and application of the ‘mitigation hierarchy’, which focuses on avoiding, minimizing or compensating for impacts of development projects. However, environmental impact assessments (EIA) typically focus in a reactive way on single project footprints with an emphasis on environmental values and specifically biodiversity. This separation may miss opportunities to jointly plan for and manage impacts to both environmental and social values. Integrated approaches may have particular benefit in northern Australia, where Indigenous people have native title to as much as 60% of the land area and cultural values are closely linked with natural values. Here, we present a novel framework for integrating biodiversity and cultural values to facilitate use in EIA processes, using the Nyikina Mangala Native Title Determination Area in the Kimberley, Western Australia, as a case study. We demonstrate 1) how social and cultural values can be organized and analyzed spatially to support mitigation planning, 2) how social, cultural, and biodiversity values may reinforce each other to deliver better conservation outcomes and minimize conflict, and 3) how this information, in the hands of Indigenous communities, provides capacity to proactively assess development proposals and negotiate mitigation measures to conserve social, cultural, and biodiversity values following the mitigation hierarchy. Based on values defined through a Healthy Country Planning process, we developed spatial datasets to represent cultural/heritage sites, freshwater features, common native animals and plants represented by biophysical habitat types, and legally-protected threatened and migratory species represented by potential habitat models. Both cultural/heritage sites and threatened species habitat show a strong thematic and spatial link with freshwater features, particularly the Fitzroy River wetlands. We outline some of the challenges and opportunities of this process and its implications for the Northern Australia development agenda.     

Characteristics of particulate matter pollution in the Pearl River Delta region, China: an observational-based analysis of two monitoring sites

Two-year monitoring data (2006 and 2009), collected at the sub-urban site (WQS) and the background site (TH), were used to study the characteristics of Particulate Matter (PM) pollution in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Similar levels of PM(2.5) concentration measured at both sites seem to confirm that the fine particles have emerged as a major regional pollution issue. The seasonal variation of PM(2.5) concentration is associated with the regional monsoon circulations while the diurnal variation is related to land-sea breeze, traffic emissions and boundary layer development. Negative correlation was found in PM(2.5)-wind speed and PM(2.5)-humidity. Analysis of radiation, temperature and ozone suggests the existence of secondary aerosol formation. Transport effect may be another contributing factor to high PM pollution in the region, such as occasional long-distance dust intrusion and trans-boundary effects from upwind areas.     

Assessing dam implementation impact on threatened carnivores: the case of Alqueva in SE Portugal

Large dam construction in water deficient areas is a management decision often controversial. Besides providing water storage, economical benefits, and a source of renewable energy, the construction and flooding caused by large dams cause disruptions in natural systems. We monitored the pre- and post-Alqueva dam impacts on the threatened carnivore species (polecat, otter, wildcat and Iberian lynx) populations in SE Portugal, and assessed which factors mostly contribute to post-dam distribution. Major short term impacts of large dams are: (1) increase in accessibility and human presence; (2) movement of heavy machinery and dam-workers; (3) deforestation with habitat loss and fragmentation; (4) change from lotic to lentic system; (5) lower prey availability and harsher capture; and (6) changes in land use adjacent to the reservoir. Thus, the response to those impacts can be predicted as a decline of polecat, wildcat and lynx distribution ranges, and a recovery of the otter from the severe short term impacts. Our results corroborate this hypothesis for all the species, especially during deforestation/early flooding. Otter's distribution range increased in the phase of greater impact, with a subsequent decrease with flooding. Our results suggest carnivores used "escape" areas with favourable habitat and prey conditions, however, the areas with higher probability of species presence decreased by two fold showing a drastic range reduction. To ensure populations' survival of these charismatic threatened carnivore populations of Mediterranean landscapes of south-east Portugal, we propose continuing the monitoring program and the development of a conservation program for the subsisting areas of optimal and suboptimal habitats.     

Use of a non-planning driving background change methodology to assess the land-use planning impact on the environment

The implementation of land-use planning (LUP) impacts on the environment and may degrade regional environmental quality due to the changes in land-use patterns. To minimize the environmental impact of non-LUP driven (NPD) land-use background changes (LUBC), we propose an NPD land-use background change (NPD-LUBC) methodology to improve the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA) process. With the application of the state-impact-state (SIS) framework and spatial information technologies including remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS), the methodology was tested on the eastern Chinese city of Lianyungang. The results indicate that (1) our proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing the environmental impact in implementing a target LUP, i.e. a LUP scheme to be assessed, from those driven by NPD-LUBC; (2) the prediction of NPD Land-use pattern simulated through the discrimination of NPD forces provides the basic data to support the LUPEA using our proposed methodology; (3) SO₂, PM₁₀, and COD emitted into the atmosphere and water are the major pollutants considered in the LUPEA of the city; and (4) despite the positive impacts of the comprehensive land-use change under the direction of target LUP, the implementation of LUP would have negative impacts on the regional environment in the entire study area and in individual counties/districts respectively in 2020. Our proposed methodology provides a new and operable way for the areas with data to simulate NPD land-use pattern and predict the individual indicator values for the assessment.     

Decadal time-scale monitoring of forest fires in Similipal Biosphere Reserve,India using remote sensing and GIS

Analyzing the spatial extent and distribution of forest fires is essential for sustainable forest resource management. There is no comprehensive data existing on forest fires on a regular basis in Biosphere Reserves of India. The present work have been carried out to locate and estimate the spatial extent of forest burnt areas using Resourcesat-1 data and fire frequency covering decadal fire events (2004–2013) in Similipal Biosphere Reserve. The anomalous quantity of forest burnt area was recorded during 2009 as 1,014.7 km². There was inconsistency in the fire susceptibility across the different vegetation types. The spatial analysis of burnt area shows that an area of 34.2 % of dry deciduous forests, followed by tree savannah, shrub savannah, and grasslands affected by fires in 2013. The analysis based on decadal time scale satellite data reveals that an area of 2,175.9 km² (59.6 % of total vegetation cover) has been affected by varied rate of frequency of forest fires. Fire density pattern indicates low count of burnt area patches in 2013 estimated at 1,017 and high count at 1,916 in 2004. An estimate of fire risk area over a decade identifies 12.2 km² is experiencing an annual fire damage. Summing the fire frequency data across the grids (each 1 km²) indicates 1,211 (26 %) grids are having very high disturbance regimes due to repeated fires in all the 10 years, followed by 711 grids in 9 years and 418 in 8 years and 382 in 7 years. The spatial database offers excellent opportunities to understand the ecological impact of fires on biodiversity and is helpful in formulating conservation action plans.     

Uncertainty assessment of mapping mercury contaminated soils of a rapidly industrializing city in the Yangtze River Delta of China using sequential indicator co-simulation

Accurate characterization of heavy-metal contaminated areas and quantification of the uncertainties inherent in spatial prediction are crucial for risk assessment, soil remediation, and effective management recommendations. Topsoil samples (0–15 cm) (n = 547) were collected from the Zhangjiagang suburbs of China. The sequential indicator co-simulation (SIcS) method was applied for incorporating the soft data derived from soil organic matter (SOM) to simulate Hg concentrations, map Hg contaminated areas, and evaluate the associated uncertainties. High variability of Hg concentrations was observed in the study area. Total Hg concentrations varied from 0.004 to 1.510 mg kg⁻¹ and the coefficient of variation (CV) accounts for 70%. Distribution patterns of Hg were identified as higher Hg concentrations occurred mainly at the southern part of the study area and relatively lower concentrations were found in north. The Hg contaminated areas, identified using the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soils critical values through SIcS, were limited and distributed in the south where the SOM concentration is high, soil pH is low, and paddy soils are the dominant soil types. The spatial correlations between Hg and SOM can be preserved by co-simulation and the realizations generated by SIcS represent the possible spatial patterns of Hg concentrations without a smoothing effect. Once the Hg concentration critical limit is given, SIcS can be used to map Hg contaminated areas and quantitatively assess the uncertainties inherent in the spatial prediction by setting a given critical probability and calculating the joint probability of the obtained areas.     

Urban gray vs. urban green vs. soil protection — Development of a systemic solution to soil sealing management on the example of Germany

Managing urban soil sealing is a difficult venture due to its spatial heterogeneity and embedding in a socio-ecological system. A systemic solution is needed to tackle its spatial, ecological and social sub-systems. This study develops a guideline for urban actors to find a systemic solution to soil sealing management based on two case studies in Germany: Munich and Leipzig. Legal-planning, informal-planning, economic-fiscal, co-operative and informational responses were evaluated by indicators to proof which strategy considers the spatial complexity of urban soil sealing (systemic spatial efficiency) and, while considering spatial complexity, to assess what the key management areas for action are to reduce the ecological impacts by urban soil sealing (ecological impact efficiency) and to support an efficient implementation by urban actors (social implementation efficiency). Results suggest framing the systemic solution to soil sealing management through a cross-scale, legal-planning development strategy embedded in higher European policies. Within the socio-ecological system, the key management area for action should focus on the protection of green infrastructure being of high value for actors from the European to local scales. Further efforts are necessary to establish a systemic monitoring concept to optimize socio-ecological benefits and avoid trade-offs such as between urban infill development and urban green protection. This place-based study can be regarded as a stepping stone on how to develop systemic strategies by considering different spatial sub-targets and socio-ecological systems.     

Metal concentrations in American oyster <Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassotrea virginica</Emphasis> and adjacent sediments from harvestable and non-harvestable sites in the Southeastern USA

Human population growth in coastal areas continues to threaten estuarine ecosystems and resources. Populations of Crassostrea virginica have declined across the USA due to water quality degradation, disease pressure, alteration of habitat, and other changes related to anthropogenic impacts. Metals that may be present in estuarine habitats can bioaccumulate in oysters, with potential consequences to the health of oysters and humans consumers. This study (1) evaluated the occurrence and relationships of metal concentrations in oyster tissue versus estuarine sediments, (2) examined oyster tissue concentrations in relation to state water quality designations, and (3) evaluated the potential risk for humans from oyster consumption related to metal concentrations from harvestable waters. Results indicated metal concentrations in sediments and oysters along coastal South Carolina remain low compared to other areas and that concentrations in oyster tissue and adjacent sediments were not highly correlated with each other. However, high concentrations of some metals occurred in oysters sampled from areas designated as Approved for Harvesting. This is important because most harvest area designation systems rely on regular bacterial monitoring when evaluating the safety of consumption. Others safety measurements may be necessary as part of routine monitoring.     

Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers.     

环境监测项目监测边界和参数设计方法

针对环境监测项目的一般性要求,系统地提出环境监测边界和监测参数的设计方法。将环境监测边界划分为空间地理边界、空间生态边界、动力空间边界、项目空间边界和时间期限,并阐述了这5种划分的具体内容。同时,介绍了监测参数设计的一般流程、环境质量监测参数选择原则及选择方法。     

The application of Geographical Information Systems to determine environmental impact significance

This paper presents a new methodology for impact assessment—SIAM (Spatial Impact Assessment Methodology)—which is based on the assumption that the importance of environmental impacts is dependent, among other things, on the spatial distribution of the effects and of the affected environment. The information generated by the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in impact identification and prediction stages of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is used in the assessment of impact significance by the computation of a set of impact indices. For each environmental component (e.g., air pollution, water resources, biological resources), impact indices are calculated based on the spatial distribution of impacts. A case study of impact evaluation of a proposed highway in Central Portugal illustrates the application of the methodology and shows its capabilities to be adapted to the particular characteristics of a given EIA problem.     

Evaluating the utility and seasonality of NDVI values for assessing post-disturbance recovery in a subalpine forest

Forest disturbances around the world have the potential to alter forest type and cover, with impacts on diversity, carbon storage, and landscape composition. These disturbances, especially fire, are common and often large, making ground investigation of forest recovery difficult. Remote sensing offers a means to monitor forest recovery in real time, over the entire landscape. Typically, recovery monitoring via remote sensing consists of measuring vegetation indices (e.g., NDVI) or index-derived metrics, with the assumption that recovery in NDVI (for example) is a meaningful measure of ecosystem recovery. This study tests that assumption using MODIS 16-day imagery from 2000 to 2010 in the area of the Colorado’s Routt National Forest Hinman burn (2002) and seedling density counts taken in the same area. Results indicate that NDVI is rarely correlated with forest recovery, and is dominated by annual and perennial forb cover, although topography complicates analysis. Utility of NDVI as a means to delineate areas of recovery or non-recovery are in doubt, as bootstrapped analysis indicates distinguishing power only slightly better than random. NDVI in revegetation analyses should carefully consider the ecology and seasonal patterns of the system in question.     

基于多时相遥感数据的典型区生态格局变化分析

利用1985、2000、2013年遥感影像提取的土地覆盖数据,通过景观格局指数、动态度计算、转移矩阵等,分析1985—2013年我国典型地区各类型生态系统景观格局及其动态变化特征、生态系统相互转化时空变化特征等,揭示1985—2013年生态环境格局变化的特点和规律:一级分类生态系统综合变化率,赣江、闽江、白龙江和岷江上游流域分别为4.7%、3.9%、3.3%和1.7%,生态系统变化强度1985—2000年较缓,2000—2013年更剧烈。1985—2013年典型区生态系统的主要转化方向具有持续性和双向性特征,岷江、白龙江和赣江上游流域退耕还林还草政策效果明显,出现较高比例的耕地转为森林和草地;面积占67.4%生态系统类型变化与耕地生态系统和人工表面生态系统变化有关;生态系统变化具有明显的区域差异,生态变化主要表现为沿主要河流谷地的线状延伸,主要城镇居民点附近生态系统类型变化较为突出,人类活动是典型地区生态系统类型格局变化的主要驱动力;典型区尤其是敏感区应加大退耕还林还草政策,减少人类经济活动,降低洪水泥石流灾害发生的概率和程度。