An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

Tiering strategic environmental assessment and project environmental impact assessment in highway planning in São Paulo, Brazil

Constructing highways in dense urban areas is always a challenge. In São Paulo Metropolitan Region, heavy truck traffic contributes to clog streets and expressways alike. As part of the traffic neither originates nor head to the region, a peripheral highway has been proposed to reduce traffic problems. This project, called Rodoanel, is an expressway approximately 175 km long. The fact that the projected south and north sections would cross catchments that supply most of the metropolis water demand was strongly disputed and made the environmental permitting process particularly difficult.The agency in charge commissioned a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of a revamped project, and called it the Rodoanel Programme. However, the SEA report failed to satisfactorily take account of significant strategic issues. Among these, the highway potential effect of inducing urban sprawl over water protection zones is the most critical issue, as it emerged later as a hurdle to project licensing.Conclusion is that, particularly where no agreed-upon framework for SEA exists, when vertical tiering with downstream project EIA is sought, then a careful scoping of strategic issues is more than necessary. If an agreement on ‘what is strategic’ is not reached and not recognized by influential stakeholders, then the unsettled conflicts will be transferred to project EIA. In such a context, SEA will have added another loop to the usually long road to project approval.     

Framework for integration of urban planning, strategic environmental assessment and ecological planning for urban sustainability within the context of China

Sustainable development or sustainability has been highlighted as an essential principle in urban master planning, with increasing recognition that uncontrollable urbanization may well give rise to various issues such as overexploitation of natural resources, ecosystem destruction, environmental pollution and large-scale climate change. Thus, it is deemed necessary to modify the existing urban and regional administrative system so as to cope with the challenges urban planning is being confronted with and realize the purpose of urban sustainability. This paper contributed to proposing a mechanism which helps to make urban planning with full consideration of issues with respect to sustainable development. We suggested that the integration of urban planning, SEA and ecological planning be a multi-win strategy to offset deficiency of each mentioned political tool being individually applied. We also proposed a framework where SEA and ecological planning are fully incorporated into urban planning, which forms a two-way constraint mechanism to ascertain environmental quality of urban planning, although in practice, planning and SEA processes may conditionally be unified. Moreover, as shown in the case study, the integration of the three political tools may be constrained due to slow changes in the contextual factors, in particular the political and cultural dimensions. Currently within the context of China, there may be three major elements which facilitate integration of the three political tools, which are (1) regulatory requirement of PEIA on urban planning, (2) the promotion or strong administrative support from government on eco-district building, and (3) the willingness of urban planners to collaborate with SEA experts or ecologists.     

The emperor's new clothes — Reflections on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) practice in South Africa

This paper presents the results of research which evaluated the performance of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) practice in South Africa in order to develop understanding of how SEA functions within a developing country with a voluntary SEA system. The research applied a combination of methods in a mixed research strategy, including a macro level survey of the SEA system together with case study reviews exploring micro level application. Three main ‘system features’ emerged, namely expansion of voluntary practice, diversity in practice and general ineffectiveness. The results also highlight a number of ‘application features’ such as a lack of focus due to an inability to deal with the concepts of ‘sustainability’ and ‘significance’, as well as poor understanding and integration with decision-making processes. Moreover, it emerged that none of the case studies seem to have conducted an ‘assessment’ per se, but rather provided a framework for strategic decision-making. The paper puts forward a number of interrelated explanations for these system and application features. In a parallel to the fable of the ‘emperor's new clothes’, SEA in South Africa appears to be regarded as the answer to all environmental problems, whilst being ineffective in practice.     

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner.     

A quantitative methodology for indexing environmental sensitivity and pollution potential

A methodology for rating the suitability of sites forthe location of industrial facilities is formulated and appliedto the case of a coal-fired power plant location. The methodologycomprises two major interlinked components: the environmentalplant location indexing component, which involves theidentification, scaling and weighting of environmentalsensitivity factors; and the impact analysis component, whichinvolves the superimposition of the pollution generation impactsof an industrial facility on spatially gridded zones of variousenvironmental sensitivities. For each rectangular areal unitdefined by a square grid, the Unit Pollution Potential Index isdetermined by the severity and distribution of key environmentalsensitivity factors and the coverage of superimposed pollutanteffects as determined by contaminant fate and transport models.For any alternative site of a planned facility, the summation ofthe unit indices over the area of influence of the facilityprovides the quantitative Pollution Index, which can be used as abasis for comparison of alternative sites for planned facilities.For this paper, this methodology is applied to the hypotheticalcase of the siting of a coal-fired power plant in thenortheastern region of the United States, in which threealternative sites are considered. The three sites: A, B and Cyielded indices of 47.83, 47.91 and 47.6, respectively, indicatingthat site C is the most suitable for siting the power plant.     

Site environmental assessment to an old paint factory in China

High ethyl-benzene and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs) were found in the soil samples and groundwater samples during a site environmental assessment for an old paint factory in the city Changchun, Jilin province of China. The target old paint plant had been in operation for near 30 years by manufacturing resin and house paint. Driving force for this study was to identify potential environmental contamination existing in this paint factory which is located next to a new resident area under construction. The assessment result would be used as baseline environmental data input for remediation plan when the factory site will be changed into potential resident area in near future. The analytical data from the soil samples from different area of the factory which had high exposure to operation showed that solid waster storage area was contaminated with high heavy metals (Cd, Pb, and Zn) and waster paint storage areas were contaminated with ethyl-benzene, xylene and C9-C30 aromatic hydrocarbon solvent. The analytical data from the groundwater samples from different area of the factory showed that resin plant area and waster paint storage areas were contaminated with high concentration of naphthalene, ethyl-benzene and xylene which exceed the reference standard. Remediation action is recommended.     

环境质量评价中关键因子识别的方法研究

应用投影寻踪聚类方法分析环境影响指标的数据资料 ,不但可以根据数据内在特性确定各评价指标的相对权重 ,避免权重人为给定的任意性 ,而且还可以通过逐次筛选找出影响环境质量的关键因子。本文将该方法成功地应用于南京市秦淮河水环境评价中 ,筛选出了影响秦淮河水质的关键因子 ,可供秦淮河水环境监测和治理作参考。另一方面 ,该方法还可以推广应用于其它类似问题的综合分析研究中。     

论中国环境监测的现代化建设

论述了在中国现阶段推进环境监测现代化的重要意义和历史机遇,指出了中国环境监测发展的现代化方向,阐述了中国环境监测现代化建设的内容,强调了科学监测的理念。     

An inquiry into the concept of SEA effectiveness: Towards criteria for Chinese practice

The importance of improving the effectiveness of Plan EIA and SEA-type evaluations in China cannot be overstated: at a time when the country's economy is being boosted by a stimulus package worth over RMB 400 trillion – largely for infrastructure – the pressure on China's already strained environment and resource base is bound to increase. The aim is to propose the criteria for plan EIA's effectiveness to raise the awareness of the need to strengthen the performance of the assessment and maximize its potential benefits. The authors first review critically the discourse on the effectiveness of the impact assessment, identifying three dimensions: substantive, procedural and incremental. The resulting conceptual framework allows them to interpret the weaknesses of the Chinese discourse on the effectiveness and of the practice of the Plan EIA to date. The result is the identification of a clear gap, both in terms of the breadth of the concept, and in terms of the quality of the existing criteria, which tend to be very generic to the point of inapplicability. The analysis also reveals a need for transitioning from formal models of the Plan EIA to more strategic approaches, in a gradual manner that is consistent with context-specificities. The proposal of a set of preliminary criteria for effectiveness is therefore structured on three levels. This framework is meant to input into the ongoing debate on how to improve the practice of PEIA and the SEA-type evaluations in China, and provide ideas for a government strategy aimed at maximizing the positive impact of PEIAs on planning, as well as on the context of application.     

An investigation of environmental and sustainability discourses associated with the substantive purposes of environmental assessment

This paper investigates the discursive construction of the substantive purposes of environmental assessment (EA). It addresses these purposes by exploring the complex and often multifaceted linkages between political factors and plural views of democracy, public participation, and the role of science that are embedded in environmental and sustainability discourses. The interaction between policy-making and public actors leads to the formulation of divergent and potentially competing rationales for public participation, and for social appraisal more generally. Participatory approaches have also given impetus to the development of several interpretations on the role of science in assessment procedures. Science is important in mediating public participation and the two are therefore reciprocally linked. This leads to discourses that become manifest in the construction of substantive purposes. Discourse analysis in EA is a relevant method for examining trends and patterns in sustainable development. It is argued that public participation is an important, if not decisive, variable in the articulation and civil legitimacy of certain purposes. A general proposition that results from this paper is that EA, although typically presented as an objective scientific tool, is an intrinsically normative process. Enhanced knowledge on the construction, and reconstruction over time, of substantive purposes is required if environmental and sustainability discourses are to be used and understood as meaningful analytical instruments to assess the socio-political implications of EA.     

Case studies: Application of SEA in provincial level expressway infrastructure network planning in China — Current existing problems

Since the Law of the People's Republic of China on Environmental Impact Assessment was enacted in 2003 and Huanfa 2004 No. 98 was released in 2004, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been officially being implemented in the expressway infrastructure planning field in China. Through scrutinizing two SEA application cases of China's provincial level expressway infrastructure (PLEI) network plans, it is found that current SEA practice in expressway infrastructure planning field has a number of problems including: SEA practitioners do not fully understand the objective of SEA; its potential contributions to strategic planning and decision-making is extremely limited; the employed application procedure and prediction and assessment techniques are too simple to bring objective, unbiased and scientific results; and no alternative options are considered. All these problems directly lead to poor quality SEA and consequently weaken SEA's effectiveness.     

Can health feasibly be considered as part of the planning process in Scotland?

The planning system is significant because of its capacity to determine the quality of the built environment as well as the health, well-being and quality of life of the individuals and communities therein. Development planning is especially important because of the long-term impact of the decisions. This paper was developed in response to increasing recognition amongst HIA practitioners in Scotland of the importance of planning for health. It focuses on the relationship between the planning system in Scotland, specifically the Development Planning element of it, and population health and considers how the health impact assessment (HIA) approach can facilitate and support joint working with planners. In particular, consideration is given to the potential impact of the introduction of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) on the linkages between health, HIA and planning.     

原子荧光度法测定城市污泥总砷的不确定度评定

根据《测量不确定度评定与表示》（JJF1059—1999）,建立了原子荧光度法测定污泥泥质中砷不确定度的数学模型,分析了测试过程中不确定度的来源,并对各不确定度分量进行评定及合成,并计算得出合成不确定度和扩展不确定度。本次测量的合成相对不确定度值为0．023,其中由消化样浓度引起的相对合成不确定度为0．021;最大的不确定度分量是样品消化重复测定的不确定度,分量值为O．0152。本次测定结果为19．97±0．92mg／kg,k=2（置信水平约为95％）。     

An assessment of cause and effect decision-making model for firm environmental knowledge management capacities in uncertainty

Environmental practices in knowledge management capability (EKMC) is a complex and uncertainty concept that is difficult to determine based on a firm’s real situation because measuring EKMC requires a set of qualitative and quantitative measurement. The objective of this study is to develop a cause and effect model in uncertainty using the fuzzy set theory and Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. A framework for evaluating EKMC is proposed. An approach of fuzzy linguistic is proposed to evaluate the firm EKMC. The evaluation results of EKMC obtained through the proposed approach are objective and unbiased due to two reasons. Firstly, the results are generated by a group of experts in the presence of motile attributes. Secondly, the fuzzy linguistic approach has more advantage to reduce distortion and losing of information. Through evaluating the result of EKMC, managers could judge the necessity to improve the EKMC and determine which criteria are the needed directions to improve. The managerial implication and conclusions are discussed.     

Framework for integration of urban planning,strategic environmental assessment and ecological planning for urban sustainability within the context of China

Sustainable development or sustainability has been highlighted as an essential principle in urban master planning, with increasing recognition that uncontrollable urbanization may well give rise to various issues such as overexploitation of natural resources, ecosystem destruction, environmental pollution and large-scale climate change. Thus, it is deemed necessary to modify the existing urban and regional administrative system so as to cope with the challenges urban planning is being confronted with and realize the purpose of urban sustainability. This paper contributed to proposing a mechanism which helps to make urban planning with full consideration of issues with respect to sustainable development. We suggested that the integration of urban planning, SEA and ecological planning be a multi-win strategy to offset deficiency of each mentioned political tool being individually applied. We also proposed a framework where SEA and ecological planning are fully incorporated into urban planning, which forms a two-way constraint mechanism to ascertain environmental quality of urban planning, although in practice, planning and SEA processes may conditionally be unified. Moreover, as shown in the case study, the integration of the three political tools may be constrained due to slow changes in the contextual factors, in particular the political and cultural dimensions. Currently within the context of China, there may be three major elements which facilitate integration of the three political tools, which are (1) regulatory requirement of PEIA on urban planning, (2) the promotion or strong administrative support from government on eco-district building, and (3) the willingness of urban planners to collaborate with SEA experts or ecologists.     

Integrating spatial support tools into strategic planning—SEA of the GMS North–South Economic Corridor Strategy and Action Plan

The GMS countries, supported by the Asian Development Bank, have adopted a holistic, multidimensional approach to strengthen infrastructural linkages and facilitate cross border trade through (i) the establishment of a trans-boundary road connecting two economic nodes across marginalised areas, followed by 2) facilitation of environmentally and socially sound investments in these newly connected areas as a means to develop livelihoods. The North–South Economic Corridor is currently in its second phase of development, with investment opportunities to be laid out in the NSEC Strategy and Action Plan (SAP). It targets the ecologically and culturally sensitive border area between PR China's Yunnan Province, Northern Lao PDR, and Thailand. A trans-boundary, cross-sectoral Strategic Environmental Assessment was conducted to support the respective governments in assessing potential environmental and social impacts, developing alternatives and mitigation options, and feeding the findings back into the SAP writing process. Given the spatial dimension of corridor development—both with regard to opportunities and risks—particular emphasis was put in the application of spatial modelling tools to help geographically locate and quantify impacts as a means to guide interventions and set priorities.     

间隔流动分析仪在环境监测应用中的评估报告

根据本站购置的SFA-2000型间隔流动分析仪的调试和应用情况,对该类仪器在环境监测工作中的应用状况和前景进行了比较评估,并提出了在购置该类仪器时所应注意的问题和配置方案。     

A study on experts' judgement on the future perspective of a country: a case study for China

The future of the environment in China until the year 2050 has been forecasted through a heuristic approach. A questionnaire survey was given to a group of Japanese experts concerning 47 selected indices, including past data and reference data about other countries. The indices were related to aspects of the economy, population, food, energy, transportation, and the environment. The experts were requested to plot a graph for each index up to 2050 based on their intuition. The lines drawn by 60 experts were compiled along with their comments, and the characteristics of each index were analyzed. Different values for the indices regarding transportation and per capita GDP were forecasted by the experts, while rather similar values were obtained for those referencing population and food consumption. The respective fields of the experts were found to affect their perspectives on the future. Economists tended to show rather optimistic views, expressing a business-as-usual scenario, while engineers predicted limited growth but technological innovation.     

Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost–benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost–benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to better evaluate the proposed methodology.