基于GM-SVR的小样本条件下化工设备可靠性预测

为了准确预测化工设备可靠性趋势，针对化工设备失效寿命数据为小样本的情形，基于灰色估计法与支持向量回归机在小样本数据处理中的优势，建立了失效寿命时间服从三参数威布尔分布的化工设备可靠性模型；结合GM（1，1）和SVR对模型进行参数估计，在压缩机可靠性分析中进行了实例应用，对比分析了最小二乘法、灰色估计法和GM-SVR的估计效果。研究结果表明:GM-SVR对威布尔分布参数的估计精度明显优于最小二乘法和灰色估计法，可以有效地应用于化工设备失效数据为小样本时的可靠性预测。     

基于蒙特卡罗的石化设备寿命均值估计优化与应用

为提高小样本或高度截尾样本设备寿命均值(MTTF)估计的准确性,须对极大似然估计(MLE)方法进行优化。采用蒙特卡罗方法对MLE公式进行数值模拟。根据均方误差(MSE)最小原则,修正MLE值,比较分析线性估计(LE)、MLE和修正后的极大似然估计(RMLE)的MSE。经大量统计分析得到临界统计量C,使用皮尔逊卡方拟合优度检验方法对临界统计量进行假设检验。利用线性估计、MLE和RMLE,计算某企业12台压缩机的MTTF。结果表明:临界统计量C服从均值为0.722,方差为0.023的正态分布,故将正态均值0.722作为不同截尾情况下估计方法的选取标准。     

PBXN-5传爆药安全可靠性试验方法研究

为满足引信传爆序列对高可靠性、高安全性火工药剂的需求,通过小隔板试验及升降法试验对PBXN-5传爆药的输出能力和冲击波感度作了分析和研究,小样本试验发现:当施主药柱装药相同,随施主与受主间隔板厚度增加,可靠起爆概率明显降低;但随受主药柱的装药尺寸的减小,传爆概率却增大。总之,受主药柱直径越小,隔板越薄,使用可靠性越高,结合安全使用性,计算得到合适的可靠度数据,为微型火工品装药提供参数依据。     

炸药及火工品可靠性与安全性评定方法

可靠性的评定结果是否可信,直接关系到炸药及火工品的使用安全性和作用可靠性。但是,现有炸药及火工品可靠性评定方法却存在着达不到置信度要求、评价结果偏于危险的缺点。为此,提出了一种确定炸药及火工品安全度和可靠度的高精度方法,并给出了应用实例。该方法不仅可信程度高,而且适用于小样本情况,尤其是在利用了以往试验数据后,既可提高安全性和可靠性评定的精度,又可大大节省试验的费用及时间     

面向驾驶员心电数据的交叉口驾驶风险评估方法

为更精准地评估交叉口范围内的驾驶风险,首先,引入驾驶员心电(EGG)数据,提出基于余弦相似性距离的逼近理想解排序(TOPSIS)模型;其次,建立滚动时间窗法,并改进传统的短期频域指标计算方法,计算模型中低频(LF)变化率指标和低频与高频之比(LF/HF)等心率变异性(HRV)指标,模型时域指标有心脏搏动周期(R-R间期)变化率和其标准差(SDNN);然后,根据心电频域和时域指标与静息状态下对应指标的接近程度进行综合排序,按照越接近驾驶风险越小的原则,评估交叉口区域的驾驶风险;最后,选择30名驾驶员,在西安市23个交叉口开展实车试验,采集试验数据并验证模型方法。结果表明：驾驶员在相同交叉口环境下的驾驶风险评估结果相似性超90.1%,所提方法可应用稀疏样本评估交叉口的整体驾驶风险;高驾驶风险的交叉口评估方差较中、低驾驶风险路口分别高38.8%和67.9%,表明低风险交叉口区域驾驶风险的评估更精准。     

设备加速试验可靠寿命的小样本评估方法

针对高可靠长寿命设备加速寿命试验,在试验样本量很少的情况下,用传统评估方法对其可靠寿命的评估存在精度不足问题。笔者在分析比较单侧容限系数和二维单侧容限系数方法后,提出设备寿命基于正态分布的加速试验可靠寿命小样本评估方法。该方法可以把设备研制过程中以往积累的试验数据和同类型的实验数据综合利用起来,以增大评估设备可靠寿命的数据量。工程应用表明,该方法与传统大样本评估方法相比,在试验设备数量一定的情况下,可靠寿命的评估精度提高至少一倍。     

基于FA-Logistic的煤矿瓦斯突出事故安全预警研究

我国煤矿瓦斯突出事故时有发生,造成的损失巨大。基于此,对新常态下的瓦斯突出事故进行预警具有重要意义。通过研究近年来瓦斯突出事故发生状况,选取煤层瓦斯含量、埋藏深度、厚度等十个关键影响因素作为评价指标体系,以获取的18组数据作为研究样本,借助SPSS软件,运用因子分析——Logistic回归方法进行综合预警,另外18组数据作为检验样本,结果都表明该方法有很好的预警效果,总体预警准确率达到80%以上。因此,该综合预警方法可以较早预测煤矿瓦斯突出事故的发生。     

基于人工神经网络的气体泄爆最大超压预测研究

为解决传统经验公式在预测气体泄爆中最大超压出现时的较大偏差或过于保守的问题,提出使用人工神经网络预测气体泄爆最大超压。基于124组实验数据,采用BP与RBF神经网络,通过优化算法计算与迭代循环对泄爆样本中的影响因素进行降维与选择,并确定2类神经网络本身在学习与计算气体泄爆样本时的相关参数。结果表明:PCA（主成分分析法）在当前样本条件下的降维效果较差,而通过迭代对比确认气体泄爆样本中的5类特征全部保留时神经网络的训练模拟效果最好;通过对124组实验数据进行随机挑选训练集与测试集的训练模拟结果发现,神经网络对气体泄爆中最大超压的预测效果较好;通过对比Molkov提出的和经Fakandu等改进的NFPA 68经验公式以及2类神经网络的预测结果表明,神经网络相比于传统气体泄爆经验公式具有明显优势。     

EOC方法在煤矿安全生产事故中的应用研究

基于目前各种针对煤矿事故分析方法仍停留在对事故的预测估计、管理理念、法律上,提出EOC法,EOC方法是专门用于煤矿事故分析处理及控制的方法,通过采用一种改进的层次分析法进行分析,然后对结果进行目标控制,从而达到控制事故发生次数的目的.结合煤矿冒顶事故进行案例分析,结果表明:EOC相关性分析与ANP法相结合省去了层次分析前期的复杂因素分层,更加方便简单;导人事故发生的原因数据,可以动态地观测事故致因与时间的关系,方便管理者具体问题具体分析;可以控制事故发生尽量在一个目标水平之下,而且方便安全管理的绩效考评,对煤矿安全生产事故的预防控制具有一定的指导与推广意义.     

加卸荷条件下岩石力学特性与声发射特征

为了探究真三轴复杂应力变化条件下岩石强度及破坏模式,通过真三轴卸荷扰动测试系统对砂岩试件进行不同第二主应力加卸荷试验,讨论在加卸荷过程中岩石的力学特性及声发射特征。试验结果表明:第二主应力的增加对试件的承载能力起到先增强后弱化的效果;不同第二主应力加卸荷声发射能量及累计振铃计数变化趋势大体一致,耗散能量比在载荷达到岩石损伤强度时突增;声发射能量峰值提前于试件轴向应力跌落,声发射能量和累计振铃计数大幅突增可作为岩石破坏的前兆;在低载荷下岩石中活动主要是裂隙压密与发育,在达到岩石损伤强度后岩石中的活动主要是裂纹贯通形成破裂面,砂岩试件声发射定位点集中区域与试件主要破裂面基本吻合。     

Investigation of the use of a closed pressure vessel test for estimating condensed phase explosive properties of organic compounds

Following the indications of earlier work, the use of a closed pressure vessel test (a mini-autoclave system) to estimate the explosive properties of organic compounds has been investigated. The dependent variable was an explosivity ranking derived from the results of a propagation of detonation test, a heating under confinement test and a deflagration test. Tentative criteria have been derived to allow the following conclusions:• Not detonable• Not Class 1• No explosive properties with respect to transport classificationThe criteria are based upon the maximum rate of pressure rise observed in the mini-autoclave and the temperature at which this occurs. They offer a more efficient screen than the decomposition energy criteria which are currently used for initial assessment of explosive properties. The importance of event temperature suggests that existing classification tests may be underestimating heating under confinement and deflagration hazards. In this case, maximum rates of pressure rise from a closed pressure vessel test might be a better basis of classification, at least for supply if not transport. Further work is necessary to test the proposed screening criteria and to assess the use of a closed pressure vessel test as a means of classification.     

室内天然气泄漏扩散数值模拟及试验验证

为研究厨房内泄漏天然气的浓度分布及其变化规律进而分析评价其危险性,通过Gambit软件建立一个典型的住宅厨房几何模型,采用Fluent软件模拟灶具软管脱落导致天然气泄漏时,在厨房门不同开度状态下厨房内天然气浓度场及可燃区域分布。模拟结果表明:门开度越大,室内可燃区域体积越小,天然气浓度分布趋于稳定的时间越短,稳定时天然气浓度越低,厨房内出现较大可燃体积所需的泄漏时间越长;当门全开时,厨房内不会出现可爆空间。搭建一个小尺寸的厨房实物进行泄漏试验,同时进行天然气浓度的实测和Fluent模拟,模拟结果与实测结果基本吻合,从而验证Fluent模拟的有效性。     

某装药弹振动特性的安全分析

为分析某装药弹的振动特性,并为该弹提供必要的力学数据,建立某装药弹模态方程。采用ANSYS软件对该弹振动特性进行了数值模拟,利用Block Lanczos法求解,得到前10阶振动固有频率和振型。分析结果表明:低阶频率主要以摆动和转动为主,高阶频率主要以弯曲扭动为主,低阶频率对该弹的影响比较小,高阶频率对该弹的影响比较大,尤其是7～10阶频率,该弹的主振频率为1053.8 Hz,为该弹的优化设计提供科学依据,在加工、储存、运输和使用条件下应低于该频率;为验证该方法可信度,采用某小型装药弹进行了实验验证,实验结果和仿真结果偏差小于1%;同时证明该有限元数值分析的方法是经济可靠的。     

裂纹宽度对分步压装装药撞击安全性的影响

针对装药裂纹与装药密度不均匀两个因素耦合作用下分步压装装药撞击安全性缺乏系统研究的问题,利用大型落锤加载装置对具有不同裂纹宽度的分步压装药柱进行了撞击加载试验,并分析了试验前、后药柱内部应力和密度分布状态的变化规律,讨论了裂纹宽度对分步压装装药撞击安全性的影响机制。结果表明:当裂纹宽度小于1.0 mm时,带裂纹分步压装药柱的撞击安全性均优于无裂纹药柱;但当裂纹宽度达到1.5 mm时,其撞击安全性明显降低。这主要是因为在撞击加载条件下,当裂纹未扩展时,裂纹区域的闭合过程能够吸收部分落锤撞击能量,减弱炸药颗粒径向流动趋势,进而降低"热点"形成的几率;而当裂纹发生扩展时,在裂纹扩展区域极易引发"热点"形成,使分步压装药柱的撞击安全性降低。可见,随裂纹宽增大,分步压装装药中裂纹所起的主要作用发生变化,从而导致装药的响应结果不同。     

Minimum ignition energy (MIE) — a basic ignition sensitivity parameter in design of intrinsically safe electrical apparatus for explosive dust clouds

In general terms, the purpose of any safety standard is to define borderlines between safe and unsafe conditions, with reasonable safety margins. The electrical spark ignition sensitivity of dust clouds (MIE) varies over at least eight orders of magnitude. Therefore, in the case of intrinsically safe electrical apparatus to be used in the presence of explosive dust clouds, substantial differentiation of the minimum requirements to prevent ignition by electrical sparks is needed. The present paper proposes a method by which adequate differentiation of required maximum permissible currents and/or voltages in intrinsically safe electrical circuits to be used in explosive dust clouds can be achieved. In essence, the concept is to use conservative first-order ignition curves, calculated or estimated from the experimental MIE value of clouds in air of the actual dust. Charts to be used for design purposes are given in the paper. Internationally standardised test methods allow MIE for clouds of any dust to be determined, at least down to the range of a few mJ. There is, however, a need for a supplementary method covering the range of lower energies, down to 0.01 mJ.     

Can post encroachment time substitute intersection characteristics in crash prediction models?

IntroductionTransportation safety analyses have traditionally relied on crash data. The limitations of these crash data in terms of timeliness and efficiency are well understood and many studies have explored the feasibility of using alternative surrogate measures for evaluation of road safety. Surrogate safety measures have the potential to estimate crash frequency, while requiring reduced data collection efforts relative to crash data based measures. Traditional crash prediction models use factors such as traffic volume, sight distance, and grade to make risk and exposure estimates that are combined with observed crashes, generally using an Empirical Bayes method, to obtain a final crash estimate. Many surrogate measures have the notable advantage of not directly requiring historical crash data from a site to estimate safety. Post Encroachment Time (PET) is one such measure and represents the time difference between a vehicle leaving the area of encroachment and a conflicting vehicle entering the same area. The exact relationship between surrogate measures, such as PET, and crashes in an ongoing research area.MethodThis paper studies the use of PET to estimate crashes between left-turning vehicles and opposing through vehicles for its ability to predict opposing left-turn crashes. By definition, a PET value of 0 implies the occurrence of a crash and the closer the value of PET is to 0, the higher the conflict risk.ResultsThis study shows that a model combining PET and traffic volume characteristic (AADT or conflicting volume) has better predictive power than PET alone. Further, it was found that PET may be capturing the impact of certain other intersection characteristics on safety as inclusion of other intersection characteristics such as sight distance, grade, and other parameters result in only marginal impacts on predictive capacity that do not justify the increased model complexity.     

Prediction of the self-ignition temperature in lagging fires by means of isothermal calorimetry

Under certain circumstances, contamination of a porous insulation material by a combustible liquid may result in a lagging/insulation fire. In the current study, a method based on isothermal calorimetry and modelling to estimate the risk of a lagging fire, or a maximum insulation thickness for a certain system temperature, is presented. The studied system was a combination of mineral wool and rapeseed oil. Full-scale tests were performed to determine suitable ignition criteria and to validate the results from the isothermal calorimetry tests and modelling. We contaminated the lagging using two methods – a direct method and a solvent method. These methods were evaluated in the full-scale tests. The solvent method resulted in more repeatable results than the direct method, where the contaminant was poured on the insulation. Using the calorimetric measurements, we estimated the parameters for the kinetic equation. This result was used to estimate the self-ignition temperature of contaminated lagging installed on a pipe. We found that a temperature increase of 40 °C was a reasonable ignition criterion when modelling.     

石化企业伤亡事故率的系统动力学仿真

针对石化企业伤亡事故率的复杂性和与企业运行的系统相关性,为了科学地预测伤亡事故率,提出了利用系统动力学对石化企业伤亡事故率进行仿真试验的方法.在对石化企业伤亡事故率进行了系统动力学分析之后,建立了石化企业伤亡事故率系统动力学仿真模型,对某石化企业进行了仿真试验,并分析了仿真试验的结果.试验应用表明,利用系统动力学对石化企业伤亡事故率进行仿真是科学有效的.     

复合乳化剂对乳化炸药热安全性影响研究

为了探究复合乳化剂对乳化炸药热分解特性的影响,使用C80微量热仪通过MC法研究了乳化剂A(SP80)和乳化剂B(T152)作为单一乳化剂和复合乳化剂(加入比例为1:1、1:2、2:1)制备的乳化炸药。以升温速率为0.5K/min时的C80热流速曲线为基础来求解5种炸药热分解反应的表观活化能(Ea)、指前因子(lnA)等热安全参数。结果表明,使用复合乳化剂制备的乳化炸药稳定性均高于使用单一乳化剂的乳化炸药。采用复合乳化剂可导致乳化剂分子间排斥作用降低,使分子排列更紧密,增加了界面膜的致密性。当加入的乳化剂比例为m(SP80):m(T152)=1:2时,由于两种乳化剂相互作用形成致密的复合界面膜,其稳定性最高。