A world in balance

The objectives of this paper are to define the scope of global population growth within the uncompromising everyday realities of technology, economies, and politics and to demonstrate the intimate between the human population problem and the increasing problem of Nature's destruction. It is hoped that the human species will come to its sense in time to create an adequate standard of living of all of its members in peace and environmental balance. The number of people the world can support is considered in terms of 1) the provision for a standard of living adequate for everyone's health and wellbeing, 2) consideration for wildlife and nature, and 3) reliance on existing levels of technology and politics. Standards of living are suggested for the affluent and the austere. The focus on the discussion is on standards of living, global carrying capacity, the imperatives of population control and respect for nature, humans versus wildlife, and the need for a universal declaration of respect for nature. Carrying capacity is determined by total land area, cultivated land area, forest land area, cereals (grain), and wood. Use per capita of each of the 5 essentials is determined for the affluent or austere standard of living. An affluent standard means that world population would be limited to 2 billion, which is 50% of the current population. An austere standard of living means a limit of 3 billion, or 33% less than the existing population. The unfortunate reality is that today's total population of 4.5 billion is increasing at an annual rate of 1.9% and is not expected to level off until it has increased 3 times. This population growth occurs at the expense of wildlife. Of the total terrestrial animal biomass, humans constitute 4% and domestic livestock 15%, which, in 40 years, will reach a combined 40% and lead to more species extinction. One species of bird or mammal will become extinct for each increase of 220 million people, which happens every 3 years. The solution is a radical stop, reversal, and stabilization of population to achieve one which is lower than today's 4.5 billion.     

The world energy situation

The oil crisis has ended on a worldwide scale. Risks of excessive price rises have disappeared. Between now and the year 2000, oil resources costing less than $15/bbl (1988 dollars) will be abundant. Twenty to 25% of the oil consumed in 2000 for thermal uses will be replaced by less costly natural gas and coal. Consumption of these last two energy sources will increase if the cost of oil rises above $20/bbl (1988 dollars). The cost of oil will rise sharply when it becomes reserved for the uses for which it is irreplaceable, ie transport, petrochemicals, the Third World and non-energy uses — probably after 2010.     

Third world debt must grow

Summary Approximately 60 percent of the debt owed by the World's Developing Countries is to the international banks. The author gives an economic analysis of the situation and concludes that real growth for the less developed countries (LDCs) will justify further increased borrowing.Malcolm Crawford is Senior Economist (Finance) with Business International UK Limited. This paper is based on an article which first appeared inLloyds Bank Review, January, 1985. The updating preceded the Baker Initiative in October 1985, in which the US Treasury Secretary announced proposals for increased lending by banks and international organisations to 15 selected debtor countries.     

The eighth world conservation lecture

The World Conservation Lecture is an annual event organised by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), United Kingdom, to draw attention to the World Conservation Strategy. This lecture was presented at the Commonwealth Institute in London on 20 April 1989. Full copies of the lecture, in booklet form, are available from the Public Relations Department, WWF - UK, Panda House, Weyside Park, Godalming, Surrey, GU7 1XR.     

The first world conservation lecture

Summary This, The First World Conservation Lecture, was presented at the Royal Institution, London, UK, on 12 March 1981. The Lecture celebrated the 20th anniversary of the World Wildlife Fund, and the first anniversary of the World Conservation Strategy. The Lecture was organized by the World Wildlife Fund, UK.Published with the kind permission of the World Wildlife Fund, UK.Edward Max Nicholson, CB, CVO, Commandeur (Netherlands), Order of the Golden Ark, holds honorary doctorates from the University of Aberdeen, and The Royal College of Art London. He was educated at the University of Oxford, and was a member of the University's expeditions to Greenland (1928) and to British Guiana (1929). He was General Secretary (until 1940), later Chairman of PEP (Political and Economic Planning): now Vice-President of its successor body, the Policy Studies Institute. From 1945 to 1952 he was Secretary of the Office of the Lord President of the Council, then Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He was member of the Advisory Council on Scientific Policy from 1948–1964. In 1952 he was leader of the joint UN/FAO Development Team in Baluchistan. Charter Member from 1949, and Director-General (1952–1966) of the Nature Conservancy, London, UK. From 1963 to 1974 he was Convenor of the Conservation Section of the International Council of Scientific Unions' International Biological Programme. President of the IUCN Technical Meeting in Edinburgh in 1956, concerned with rehabilitation of areas biologically devastated by human disturbance, and relation of ecology to landscape planning. Member, Panel on Landscape Action Program, The White House Conference (USA) on Natural Beauty (1965). Secretary, HRH The Duke of Edinburgh's Study Conference on The Countryside in 1970 (1963 and 1965). Council and Board Member of IIED. Godman-Salvin Medallist British Ornithologist Unions. Phillips Medallist and Member of Honour IUCN, Geoffroy St. Hilaire Gold Medal, Société Nationale de Protection de Nature de France, Premio Europeo Cortina-Ulisse (1971), Europa Preis für Landespflege (1972), Hon Member of World Wildlife Fund, Chairman Ecological Parks Trust, President RSPB, 1980. Principal Consultant and Chairman of Land Use Consultants Ltd (London) since 1966. Author of many books,Birds and Men (1951);Britain's Nature Reserves (1958),The System (1967);The Environmental Revolution (1970).     

Overview of hypoxia around the world

No other environmental variable of such ecological importance to estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems around the world has changed so drastically, in such a short period of time, as dissolved oxygen. While hypoxic and anoxic environments have existed through geological time, their occurrence in shallow coastal and estuarine areas appears to be increasing, most likely accelerated by human activities. Several large systems, with historical data, that never reported hypoxia at the turn of the 19th century (e.g., Kattegat, the sea between Sweden and Denmark) now experience severe seasonal hypoxia. Synthesis of literature pertaining to benthic hypoxia and anoxia revealed that the oxygen budgets of many major coastal ecosystems have been adversely affected mainly through the process of eutrophication (the production of excess organic matter). It appears that many ecosystems that are now severely stressed by hypoxia may be near or at a threshold of change or collapse (loss of fisheries, loss of biodiversity, alteration of food webs).     

Review of world sulphur demand and supply

Data on the sulphur market and sulphur production are presented for the period 1975–88 and projections are given for both to 2000. The largest consumer of sulphur during the period under review was the fertilizer industry. In general a surplus of sulphur is expected by 1995, but that should disappear by 2000. The validity of the prediction depends on no new environmental constraints and on the development of large sulphur deposits in Eastern Europe and the USSR.     

The geographic concentration of world mineral supplies

Mineral reserves are unevenly and erratically distributed throughout the world; those countries which were intensively explored in the past — the USA, Canada, the USSR, Australia, South Africa, and a limited number of Asian, African, and Latin American countries — control a large share of many of the industrially important metallic minerals. Current attitudes towards exploration and the mining industry in both the developed and the less developed countries should clearly encourage rather than discourage new exploration. Given an increase in exploration, new reserves may well be found in previously unexplored areas, but any major increase in world mineral supplies will probably come from mining very low- grade deposits and developing new methods of mining and processing non-conventional ores. While it is vital to increase research and development in exploration techniques and mining and processing technology, it is also critical to maintain current levels of consumption and trade by reversing the trend towards trade restriction on the part of some of the less developed countries who are important mineral exporters.