Assessing Suitability for Conservation Action: Prioritizing Interpond Linkages for the California Tiger Salamander

Abstract:  Conservation organizations and public agencies are interested in identifying and prioritizing areas for conservation action, often acquisition or easements. Typically, this requires the use of uncertain data and vaguely defined decision criteria. I developed a decision support system to address these uncertainty issues and assist in evaluating conservation opportunities for the endangered California tiger salamander ( Ambystoma californiense ) in Santa Barbara, California. Functionally defined planning units were used to aggregate data on land suitability, land cover change, salamander presence, and movement risk along potential linkages between breeding ponds. I used a fuzzy-logic-based inference engine to evaluate the planning units and rank the relative suitability of interpond linkages for conservation action. The sensitivity of the rankings was considered with respect to uncertainty in salamander occurrence data and the relationship between land-cover-change threats and site suitability. All linkages were substantially degraded, but five areas were consistently identified with high relative suitability for conservation action despite differences in assumptions and uncertainty in biological data. The combination of functionally defined planning units and a fuzzy-logic-based decision support system provides a general framework for considering the suitability of sites for conservation action.     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).