“十三五”推进可再生能源发展的战略思考

作为能源绿色化发展的主体,可再生能源持续健康发展是实现能源生产革命和能源供应转型不可或缺的重要途径。当前我国可再生能源已进入到大范围增量替代、区域性存量替代的发展阶段,但在未来发展空间、能源系统融入、技术进步创新、政策机制保障等方面面临愈加严峻的挑战。"十三五"是我国可再生能源发展承上启下的关键时期,需要结合电力体制改革进程,以促进可再生能源电力发展机制为先导,在法律法规、能源市场、基础设施、技术推进、价格财税、监督管理等诸多方面创新机制,解决制约发展的瓶颈问题,推进可再生能源成为主力能源之一的进程。     

寻找能源和气候危机出路——可再生能源：欢洲能源政策及对华合作的主题

欧洲能源政策的调整 上个世纪90年代末之前,由于石油和能源价格低廉。加之并没有对二氧化碳排放进行限制,欧洲的能源主要来源还是化石燃料。同时,这些情况也阻碍了对新能源技术的创新和投资。90年代末后,由于人们对环境感到担忧．同时。欧洲对石油依赖日益严重．这一情况开始发生改变。可再生能源在最终能源消费结构中的比例也从2000年的7．6％上升到了2005年的8．5％。尤其是在电力方面,由于欧盟开始执行“各国可再生能源发展目标体系”,     

Towards sustainable development in Austria: renewable energy contributions

Besides energy conservation, theexploration of renewable energy sources, inparticular biomass and solar energy, arecentral aspects of the Austrian energypolicy, regarded as an optimal option forachieving CO₂-emission reductionobjectives.The market penetration of RenewableEnergy Technologies in the last twentyyears was supported by the AustrianEnergy Research Programme. The result ofsuccessful developments of biomass heating,solar thermal, solar electrical and windenergy technologies is the key for themarket development of these renewableenergy technologies.With the market penetration of renewableenergy technologies new business areas wereestablished and employment created.Today, some renewable energy technologiesin Austria have reached economiccompetitiveness. Some technologies notreached commercialisation, and need moredevelopment to improve efficiency,reliability and cost to become commercial.This would include material and systemdevelopment, pilot plants or fieldexperiments to clarify technical problems,and demonstration plants to illustrateperformance capabilities and to clarifyproblems for commercialisation.     

基于可再生能源配额制的东部沿海地区能源结构优化问题探讨

通过借鉴国外发展可再生能源的经验,分析了我国能源供需分布格局及其区际能源平衡的特点,论证了实施可再生能源配额制在东部沿海地区能源结构优化过程中的意义及其途径。研究表明:①2010年,全国狭义可再生能源配额目标为5.1%,广义可再生能源配额目标为18.4%;②在东部沿海各省份均实现了广义配额目标的前提下,东部沿海地区可再生能源发电占其电力需求总量和能源消费总量的比重分别上升到18.4%和3.05%,能源结构得到优化;③为此,西部水电开发可达到全国总量的63.8%,小水电发电量可占全国总量的90.6%,实现西部优势再生能源的优先开发。     

碳税对我国宏观经济及可再生能源发电技术的影响——基于电力部门细分的CGE模型

本文基于电力行业上市公司年报数据将传统CGE模型中的电力部门细分为7个发电部门,其中包含水电、风电、光伏和生物质电4个可再生能源发电部门.首先基于传统CGE模型和电力部门细分的CGE模型比较了我国引入可再生能源发电技术前后征收碳税对宏观经济的影响,然后分析了单一碳税政策、碳税与可再生能源发电补贴复合政策对可再生能源发电技术发展的影响.研究发现：引入可再生能源发电技术后,征收碳税对宏观经济的负面影响相比没有引入而言将有所降低;征收碳税将促进可再生能源发电技术的发展;在征收碳税的同时如果对特定可再生能源发电技术给予补贴,可能会对未受到补贴且不具备成本比较优势的可再生能源发电技术产生“挤出效应”.     

碳中和——中国发展转型的机遇与挑战

碳中和是《巴黎协定》提出的到21世纪末在全球范围内实现人为活动排放的温室气体排放总量与大自然吸收总量相平衡,这是《联合国气候变化框架公约》应对气候变化问题的终极目标。本文从碳中和的目的、本质和进展分析入手,提出了在实现碳中和问题上中国的机遇与挑战。     

能源流视角下村落尺度能源消费结构比较及环境效应研究：基于河南省邑西里村、杨家村及山东省东桥头村的调查分析

加强村落尺度能源消费活动及其环境效应研究是实现农村能源可持续转型及绿色发展精细化治理的前提。但目前该领域存在明显知识空白,其原因在于缺乏基础数据和系统化数据采集体系及集成分析方法。基于对河南省邑西里村、杨家村以及山东省东桥头村的实地调研和半结构式访谈,采用定性和定量结合的方法开展能源消费活动及环境效应比较研究。结果表明：（1）村落尺度能源消费具有显著空间分异特征。邑西里村、杨家村和东桥头村人均能源消费量分别为505 kgce、889 kgce和1139 kgce;由能源消费产生的温室气体与污染物的种类分别为CO₂、CH₄、SO₂、N₂O、NO_x和TSP,单个家庭CO₂的产生量在2000—4000 kg;CH₄、SO₂、TSP和NO_x的排放量基本在1—5 kg;N₂O的排放量均在100 g以下。（2）居民生活环境和炊事供暖是影响村域能源消费的主要因素。其在邑西里村、杨家村和东桥头村的总用能占比分别为50.10%、79.08%和77.61%。（3）能源来源及消费结构具有明显的区位属性特征。杨家村距离市区较近,天然气成为当地居民的主要来源;邑西里村和东桥头村离市区较远,则以电力和煤炭为主。未来乡村地区的发展应该与当地的地域特征相结合,构建具有地方化特征的发展策略,实现农村能源的低碳健康发展。     

A nexus perspective on competing land demands: Wider lessons from a UK policy case study

As nations develop policies for low-carbon transitions, conflicts with existing policies and planning tools are leading to competing demands for land and other resources. This raises fundamental questions over how multiple demands can best be managed. Taking the UK as an empirical example, this paper critiques current policies and practices to explore the interdependencies at the water-energy-food nexus. It considers how current land uses and related policies affect the UK’s resilience to climate change, setting out an agenda for research and practice relevant to stakeholders in land-use management, policy and modelling. Despite recent progress in recognising such nexus challenges, most UK land-related policies and associated science continue to be compartmentalised by both scale and sector and seldom acknowledge nexus interconnections. On a temporal level, the absence of an over-arching strategy leaves inter-generational trade-offs poorly considered. Given the system lock-in and the lengthy policy-making process, it is essential to develop alternative ways of providing dynamic, flexible, practical and scientifically robust decision support for policy-makers. A range of ecosystem services need to be valued and integrated into a resilient land-use strategy, including the introduction of non-monetary, physical-unit constraints on the use of particular services.     

Measuring the Incremental Costs of Global Environment Protection: The Case of Grid-Connected Wind Turbines in Morocco

An application is presented of the methodology used bythe Global Environment Facility (GEF) to measureincremental costs. Incremental cost estimates are usedby the GEF to determine its financial contribution toprojects that protect the global environment, such asinvestments in renewable energy. The importance ofadopting a system-wide view in certain types ofprojects (such as investments in grid-connected power)is illustrated using the case of wind power inMorocco. A narrow plant-by-plant comparison wouldneglect the adjustments in the system expansion planthat may be warranted when one type of plant (e.g., acoal fired thermal plant) is replaced by another (e.g.,a wind farm).     

Biomass energy experiments in rural India: Insights from learning-based development approaches and lessons for Strategic Niche Management

This paper investigates the suitability and limitations of the Strategic Niche Management framework in the context of emerging economies of South and East Asia. We explore several learning-based approaches to development projects that are part of the academic and practitioner field of development studies. The approaches show similarities with SNM but they reflect the developing-country context within which they were framed, and are also more geared towards local community development and capacity building. We apply these approaches to four biomass energy projects in rural India to identify determinants of success and failure. We then discuss how these findings compare with the insights that an SNM analysis would have offered. We arrive at the following conclusions. First, the great strengths of SNM are its explicit conceptualisation of environmental sustainability and its endogenous treatment of the larger context. Second, the learning-based development approaches hone in on the complexities of local management and stakeholder organisation. Third, they also bring out the great importance of local institutions such as traditional status and power differences. Fourth, we conclude that SNM holds considerable promise for application in a developing Asian context, but that its usefulness and relevance in that setting could be enhanced by incorporating these additional issues.     

2050年中国能源消费结构的系统动力学模拟——基于重点行业的转型情景

面向2050年世界能源发展形势与中国发展实际,推进能源转型与保障油气供给是关乎国家发展和能源安全的重大前瞻性问题。考虑能源转型这一关键前提,基于重点行业部门的政策情景模拟了中国能源消费的总量与结构变化情况,并分析了中国油气消费需求及其对外依存情况。结果显示:(1)若实行积极的部门能源转型政策,中国的一次能源消费总量将在较大幅度上低于参照情景,并有望在2040年达到峰值,其峰值在5755～7000 mtce之间。具体来看,煤炭消费可在2030年前达峰,石油消费在两种转型情景下均将在2040年达到峰值,而天然气仅在加速转型情景下可于2035年实现消费达峰。(2)从推进能源结构转型角度看,在转型情景下中国2050年煤炭消费量占能源消费总量的比例为21%,在加速转型情景下到2050年煤炭占能源消费总量的比例将不足10%;无论是在转型情景下还是加速转型情景下,到2050年油气消费占中国能源消费总量的30%;若推行更加积极的转型政策,在加速转型情景下中国到2050年非化石能源消费占比将超越化石能源。(3)高需求低产出将导致中国油气对外依存度在中长期内处于较高水平,因而,在2050年前保障国家能源安...