基于OPAQ的城市空气质量预报系统研究

空气质量预测在国内的关注度日益提高,传统的空气质量预测系统通常运用数值化学传输模型,利用物理方程来计算污染物的扩散、沉降和化学反应。而化学传输模型的预测准确性很大程度上需要依赖详细的污染源排放信息和气象模型的输出结果。基于统计模型的OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统,采用人工神经网络算法,可预测各污染物的日均值或日最大值。并对北京空气质量预报的结果进行了评价,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统对空气质量预测的准确性较高,能够利用较低的计算资源得到较为准确的预测结果。与数值预报相比,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统不需要大量的基础数据作为输入,可弥补数值预报的不足,并成为数值预报的有力补充。     

臭氧数值预报模型综述

光化学大气质量模型在研究臭氧(O_3)污染以及O_3预报方面具有核心作用,是O_3污染防治决策者的有力工具。文章结合目前中国及国际区域尺度光化学大气质量预报模型的研究与应用,重点论述与O_3有关的大气化学过程在数值预报模型中的数学表达和计算方法,阐述大气物理与大气化学过程在主流大气质量数值预报模型中的实现方法及其优势和缺陷,介绍用于数值预报模型的大气物理过程和湍流参数化方案的最新进展。就当前O_3数值模拟的主要输入资料进行讨论,强调那些易被忽视但又显著影响模型预报能力和效果的诸多因素以及模型效果评估的重要性。结合O_3与复合型大气污染的关系,强调区域大气质量数值预报模型的发展趋势与方向以及在大气环境管理方面的意义和作用。     

Simulation of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentration patterns for a 2010 traffic scenario in Bologna,Italy

Three state of the art traffic–emission–dispersion models dealing with particulate matter have been tested and validated over the Bologna metropolitan area with 2001 data and a future scenario has been developed in order to estimate expected PM concentrations in 2010. The modelling system is composed by a traffic model (VISUM) evaluating vehicle fluxes as a function of mobility demand and road network in the area, an emission model (Trefic) estimating pollutants emitted in atmosphere as a function of vehicle fluxes amount and composition and of environmental conditions and a dispersion model (ADMS) evaluating PM concentrations on the area, given the meteorological variables. The three models compose a cascade sequence and results of the previous one feed the next one. PM concentrations computed by the model suite for the town of Bologna, in northern Italy, for the reference period (January 2001) have been compared with air quality stations measurements suggesting the modelling system being especially suitable for evaluating traffic induced PM. Qualitative and quantitative changes in the circulating vehicle fleet have been supposed in order to obtain a realistic scenario for year 2010. Forecasted concentrations have been then compared with limits fixed by current EU legislation for particulate matter.     

Forecasting Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations in the Athens Basin

In the work ozone data from the Liossion monitoring station of the Athens/PERPA network are analysed. Data cover the months May to September for the period 1987–93. Four statistical models, three multiple regression and one ARIMA (0,1,2), for the prediction of the daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentrations are developed. All models together, with a persistence forecast, are evaluated and compared with the 1993's data, not used in the models development. Validation statistics were used to assess the relative accuracy of models. Analysis, concerning the models' ability to forecast real ozone episodes, was also carried out. Two of the three regression models provide the most accurate forecasts. The ARIMA model had the worst performance, even lower than the persistence one. The forecast skill of a bivariate wind speed and persistence based regression model for ozone episode days was found to be quite satisfactory, with a detection rate of 73% and 60% for O3 >180 g m-3 and O3 >200 g m-3, respectively.     

An Experimental Methodology for Monitoring Contaminant Transport Through Geotechnical Centrifuge Models

In this paper, an attempt has been made to highlight an experimental methodology for monitoring contaminant transport through locally available silty soil and commercially available clay in geotechnical centrifuge models, for different compaction states. Use of multiple depth sensors to determine depth distribution of sodium chloride in the soil column has been detailed. The obtained results have been compared with argentometric method. To validate the centrifuge modelling, modelling of models has been used. The test setup developed can simulate contaminant transport mechanisms through the soil mass, which is approximately 10 m deep, over a period of 600 days. R _e and P _e are found to be N times higher in the centrifuge models. These numbers are found to be several orders less than unity. This indicates that laminar flow prevails and the dominating Cl⁻ transport mechanism in centrifuge is diffusion. The study also highlights the fact that the geotechnical centrifuge modelling can be used as a viable alternative to field scale experimentation.     

Numerical integration of chemical ODE problems arising in air pollution models

The numerical treatment of a regional air pollution model (such models are, as a rule, described mathematically by systems of partial differential equations) leads to the solution of very large computational problems. The chemical submodel of an air pollution model is normally the most timeconsuming part of the computational work. The application of appropriate discretization and splitting procedures reduces the chemical submodel to a large number of relatively small ODE systems (one such system per gridpoint). In the process of searching for efficient numerical algorithms for the chemical submodels one can carry out experiments by using only one such ODE system in order to facilitate the work. This approach has been used in connection with a particular chemical scheme, the condensed CBM IV scheme, which is used in several large air pollution models. Six integration algorithms have been tested on a set of typical scenarios (consisting of different starting concentrations and/or of different values of the emissions). The advantages and the disadvantages of the algorithms tested are discussed. The final decision about the most efficient algorithm, among the algorithms tested, should be made after a second series of experiments. The coupling of the chemical process with the transport of air pollution (on, at least, a twodimensional domain) together with the application of highspeed computers has to be studied in the second series of experiments, which will be performed in a subsequent paper.     

Improving Efficiency Of Uncertainty Analysis In Complex Integrated Assessment Models: The Case Of The Rains Emission Module

Abstact Ever since the Regional Acidification Information and Simulation Model (RAINS) has been constructed, the treatment of uncertainty has remained an issue of major interest. In a recent review of the model performed for the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme of the European Commission, a more systematic and structured uncertainty analysis has been recommended. This paper aims at contributing to the scientific debate how this can be achieved. Because of its complex structure on the one hand and limited research resources (time, computational capacities) on the other hand a full-blown uncertainty analysis in RAINS is hardly feasible. Therefore, all types of uncertainty require more efficient ways for uncertainty analysis. With respect to parameter uncertainty, we propose to focus research efforts for uncertainty analysis on key parameters. Among different approaches to select key parameters that have been discussed in the literature screening methods seem to be particularly appropriate for complex, deterministic Integrated Assessment models such as RAINS. Surprisingly, in Integrated Assessment modelling for air pollution problems of screening design have not been taken up so far. As a case study we consider the emission module of RAINS. We show that its structure allows for a straightforward and effective screening procedure     

MOSESS: A New Emission Model for the Compilation of Model-Ready Emission Inventories—Application in a Coal Mining Area in Northern Greece

Over the last years, the capabilities of chemical transport models have been greatly improved and the need for more accurate emission data has increased as well. In the past, a number of emission models have been developed and present different functionalities and applications. The majority of these though cover very specific needs. This paper describes the development of a new emission model namely computer model for the construction of model-ready emission inventories (MOSESS) which is used to compile high-resolution emission inventories or improve existing ones, utilizing complex GIS techniques. The model aims in helping chemical modelers to obtain a better overview of their modeling application by having a comprehensive understanding of the emission input. MOSESS incorporates more than 70 different emission calculation methodologies, and it is capable of handling external emission databases (such as EMEP and EPER) from which emissions can be extracted. The temporal variation (annual/daily and diurnal processing), chemical speciation of NMVOCs and particles, vertical distribution and point source treatment, as well as the spatial disaggregation of emissions (utilizing numerous spatial proxies including high-resolution landuses) can help create model-ready emission inventories which can be used for contemporary modeling applications.     

Grey Box and Component Models to Forecast Ozone Episodes: A Comparison Study

For the purpose of short-term forecasting of high ozone concentration episodes stochastic models have been suggested and developed in the literature. The present paper compares the quality of forecasts produced by a grey box and a component time-series model. The summer ozone patterns for three European urban areas (two continental and one mediterranean) are processed. By means of forecast performance indices according to EC and WHO guidelines, the following features of the models could be found: The grey box model is highly adaptive and produces forecasts with low error variance that increases with the time horizon of forecast. The component model is more 'stiff' that results in a higher forecast-error variance and poorer adaption in detail. The forecast horizon, however, could be enlarged with this model. The accuracy of predicting threshold exceedance is similar for both models. This can be understood from the assumption of a cyclical time development of ozone that was made for both models.     

Comparison of Numerical Street Dispersion Models with Results from Wind Tunnel and Field Measurements

Numerical dispersion models developed and validated in different European countries were applied to data sets from wind tunnel and field measurements. The comparison includes the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the microscale flow and dispersion model MISKAM. The latter is recommended for application in built-up areas in the draft of the new German guideline VDI 3782/8. In a first step the models were applied to simplified street configurations. Different parameters as length and height of adjacent buildings and the angle of the incoming flow were varied. The results were compared to recent wind tunnel measurements. In a second step the models were applied to two extensively investigated field data sets from Jagtvej, Copenhagen and G ttinger Straße, Hannover. Intensified and more transparent and accessible validation procedures would be helpful for the thorough user.     

The simultaneous modelling of metal ion and humic substance transport in column experiments

Pulsed column experiments using Co, fulvic acid and porous sediment packing, along with up/down-flooding experiments using Eu, humic acid and intact sandstone blocks have been performed. The elution of metal and humic and their distribution along the sandstone columns have been measured. A mixed equilibrium and kinetic coupled chemical transport model has been used to simulate the results. In both cases, one exchangeable and one non-exchangeable component have been used to simulate the interaction of metal and humic substance. For the pulsed experiments, a simple equilibrium approach was used to model humic sorption, while a two component, kinetic model was required for the sandstone columns.     

A new model for climate system analysis: Outline of the model and application to palaeoclimate simulations

We present a new reduced-form model for climate system analysis. This model, called CLIMBER-2 (for CLIMate and BiosphERe, level 2), fills the current gap between simple, highly parameterized climate models and computationally expensive coupled models of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We outline the basic assumptions implicit in CLIMBER-2 and we present examples of climate system analysis including a study of atmosphere–ocean interaction during the last glacial maximum, an analysis of synergism between various components of the climate system during the mid-Holocene around 6000 years ago, and a transient simulation of climate change during the last 8000 years. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of a computationally efficient analysis of climate system dynamics which is a prerequisite for future climate impact research and, more generally, Earth system analysis, i.e., the analysis of feedbacks between our environment and human activities.     

Assessment of a General Finite Line Source Model and CALINE4 for Vehicular Pollution Prediction in Ireland

A comparative evaluation of two Gaussian-based line source models namely, California line source dispersion model version 4 and the general finite line source model, is presented. The concentrations predicted by these models are compared with background-corrected ambient concentrations measured at three different distances from a motorway and performance of both models assessed in the context of integrated transport–environment modelling for regulatory purposes.     

Colloid-Associated Groundwater Contaminant Transport in Homogeneous Saturated Porous Media: Mathematical and Numerical Modeling

During the past two decades, significant efforts have been made to study contaminant transport in the presence of colloids. Several researchers reported that colloidal particles could enhance the migration of contaminants in groundwater by reducing retardation factor. When the colloidal particles are present in the aquifer, the subsurface system can be considered as a three-phase system with two solid phases and an aqueous phase. The interaction between contaminants, colloids, and solid matrix should be considered in assessing the fate and transport of the contaminant in the groundwater flow system. In this study, a one-dimensional numerical model is developed by employing a fully implicit finite difference method. This model is based on mass balance equations and mass partition mechanisms between the carriers and solid matrix, as well as between the carriers and contaminants in a saturated homogeneous porous medium. This phenomenon is presented by two approaches: equilibrium approach and fully kinetic first-order approach. The formulation of the model can be simplified by employing equilibrium partitioning of particles. However, contaminant transport can be predicted more accurately in realistic situations by kinetic modeling. To test the sensitivity of the model, the effect of the various chemical and physical coefficients on the migration of contaminant was investigated. The results of numerical modeling matched favorably with experimental data reported in the literature.     

Two-dimensional finite elements model for selenium transport in saturated and unsaturated zones

A two-dimensional finite element model was developed to simulate species of selenium transport in two dimensions in both saturated and unsaturated soil zones. The model considers water, selenate, selenite, and selenomethionine uptake by plants. It also considers adsorption and desorption, oxidation and reduction, volatilization, and chemical and biological transformations of selenate, selenite, and selenomethionine. In addition to simulating water flow, selenate, selenite, and selenomethionine transport, the model also simulates organic and gaseous selenium transport. The developed model was applied to simulate two different observed field data. The simulation of the observed data was satisfactory, with mean absolute error of 48.5 μg/l and mean relative error of 8.9%.     

Temporal moments analysis of preferential solute transport in soils

Temporal moments analysis of solute breakthrough curves is used to investigate the preferential leaching of chloride, nitrate and phosphate through an Australian soil. Recent studies have shown that current models and methods do not adequately describe the leaching of nutrients through soil, often underestimating the risk of groundwater contamination by surface-applied chemicals, and overestimating the concentration of resident solutes. This inaccuracy results primarily from ignoring soil structure and non-equilibrium between soil constituents, water and solutes. Therefore simple models are required to accurately characterise solute transport in natural and agricultural soils under non-equilibrium conditions. A multiple sample percolation system, consisting of 25 individual collection wells was constructed to study the effects of localised soil heterogeneities on the transport of nutrients (NO₃ ^–, Cl^–, PO₄ ^{3 –}) in the vadose zone of an agricultural soil predominantly dominated by clay. Using data collected from the multiple sample percolation experiments, this paper compares and contrasts the performance of temporal moments analysis with two mathematical models for predicting solute transport, the advective-dispersion model with a reaction term (ADR) and a two-region preferential flow model (TRM) suitable for modelling preferential transport. The values for solute transport parameters predicted by temporal moments analysis were in excellent agreement with experimental data and results from ADR and TRM. It is concluded that temporal moments analysis when applied with other physical models such as the ADR and TRM, provide an excellent means of obtaining values for important solute transport parameters and gaining insight of preferential flow. These results have significant ramifications for modelling solute transport and predicting nutrient loadings.     

Propanil in a Manitoba soil: an interactive spreadsheet model based on conventional chemical kinetics

An interactive spreadsheet model has been created for quantitative predictions of propanil sorption and reaction in a slurried Manitoba clay soil. Based on experimental values for the numbers of empty and filled sorption sites as reactants and products, the reaction mechanism has been described with conventional chemical kinetics. The on line HPLC μ extraction method revealed labile sorption, intraparticle diffusion, and a chemical reaction. Laidler's integral rate law for second order kinetics describes the labile sorption. Desorption, intraparticle diffusion, and the chemical reaction are all described by first order kinetics. The time dependent effects of initial concentration and amount of slurried soil can be predicted for sorption, intraparticle diffusion, and the amount of reaction product. Suggested applications include storm runoff and inputs for fate and transport hydrology models.     

除湿机冷凝水中亚硝酸盐的浓度与大气环境质量的关系探讨

探讨了家用除湿机作为空气水溶性物质采集器的可行性。通过离子色谱仪对冷凝水离子成分的分析,并与空气总悬浮微粒(TSP)可溶性化学成分的对比,发现水汽中大部分阴阳离子的含量只比TSP低1个数量级。但TSP中一般检测不出亚硝酸根,而在水汽中则可检测出亚硝酸根离子,且水汽中亚硝酸根离子的浓度与取样位置的大气环境质量有关。     

On the Use of MRF/AVN Global Information to Improve the Operational Air Quality Model OPANA

Operational air quality models have become an important tool to assist the decision makers in European Environmental Offices at different levels: cities, regional and state. Because of the important advance on computing capabilities during the last few years the possibility of incorporating the complex research and academic mesoscale air quality models under routine operational basis has become a reality. OPANA model is the operational version of the research model ANA (Atmospheric mesoscale Numerical pollution model for regional and urban Areas). This model is a limited area model (mesoscale beta) and the capability to extend the prediction horizon is limited unless proper boundary conditions are provided during long simulations. In this contribution we show how AVN/MRF (NOAA) vertical numerical meteorological soundings are incorporated to the OPANA system by using JAVA technology. This new feature helps to keep the air quality model into medium power workstations and the performance is improved accordingly. This technology avoids running mesoscale models over larger areas (continental scale) to accordingly increase the forecasting temporal horizon.