Regional Representativeness of Swedish Reference Lakes

/ Recent focus has been placed on ecoregion delineations for providing an appropriate framework for monitoring and assessment of region-specific attainable water/habitat quality. Using an ecoregion approach to stratify variance, this study was conducted to determine whether earlier (subjectively) selected Swedish reference lakes may be considered as regionally representative reference sites when compared with a randomly selected lake population. Predictive modeling by discriminant function analysis with lakes classified by ecoregion and lake surface area and six physicochemical variables showed that the greater majority of reference lakes may be considered as regionally representative. The highest proportion of lake "misclassifications" occurred in the boreonemoral ecoregion, a relatively diverse ecoregion of southern Sweden. This apparent bias may be in part be due to the criteria used in selecting regional reference lakes. In the earlier selection of reference lakes emphasis was placed on lakes not being adversely affected by land usage or pollutant discharges, consequently forest lakes were often overrepresented and sites in agricultural areas underrepresented in the selected reference sites. As a complement to predictive modeling, PCA ordination showed the placement of reference lakes within the random lake population and indicated where reference sites might be missing along potentially important ecological gradients. KEY WORDS: Regionalization; Ecoregion; Representativeness; Reference; Ordination; Modeling; Temperate lakes     

Defining the Reference Condition for Wadeable Streams in the Sand Hills Subdivision of the Southeastern Plains Ecoregion,USA

The Sand Hills subdivision of the Southeastern Plains ecoregion has been impacted by historical land uses over the past two centuries and, with the additive effects of contemporary land use, determining reference condition for streams in this region is a challenge. We identified reference condition based on the combined use of 3 independent selection methods. Method 1 involved use of a multivariate disturbance gradient derived from several stressors, method 2 was based on variation in channel morphology, and method 3 was based on passing 6 of 7 environmental criteria. Sites selected as reference from all 3 methods were considered primary reference, whereas those selected by 2 or 1 methods were considered secondary or tertiary reference, respectively. Sites not selected by any of the methods were considered non-reference. In addition, best professional judgment (BPJ) was used to exclude some sites from any reference class, and comparisons were made to examine the utility of BPJ. Non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that use of BPJ may help designate non-reference sites when unidentified stressors are present. The macroinvertebrate community measures Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera richness and North Carolina Biotic Index showed no differences between primary and secondary reference sites when BPJ was ignored. However, there was no significant difference among primary, secondary, and tertiary reference sites when BPJ was used. We underscore the importance of classifying reference conditions, especially in regions that have endured significant anthropogenic activity. We suggest that the use of secondary reference sites may enable construction of models that target a broader set of management interests.     

Applications of Numerical Sediment Quality Targets for Assessing Sediment Quality Conditions in a US Great Lakes Area of Concern

Contaminated sediments are receiving increasing recognition around the world, leading to the development of various sediment quality indicators for assessment, management, remediation, and restoration efforts. Sediment chemistry represents an important indicator of ecosystem health, with the concentrations of contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) providing measurable characteristics for this indicator. The St. Louis River Area of Concern (AOC), located in the western arm of Lake Superior, provides a case study for how numerical sediment quality targets (SQTs) for the protection of sediment-dwelling organisms can be used to support the interpretation of sediment chemistry data. Two types of SQTs have been established for 33 COPCs in the St. Louis River AOC. The Level I SQTs define the concentrations of contaminants below which sediment toxicity is unlikely to occur, whereas the Level II SQTs represent the concentrations that, if exceeded, are likely to be associated with sediment toxicity. The numerical SQTs provide useful tools for making sediment management decisions, especially when considered as part of a weight-of-evidence approach that includes other sediment quality indicators, such as sediment contaminant chemistry and geochemical characteristics, sediment toxicity, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure. The recommended applications of using the numerical SQTs in the St. Louis River AOC include: designing monitoring programs, interpreting sediment chemistry data, conducting ecological risk assessments, and developing site-specific sediment quality remediation targets for small, simple sites where adverse biological effects are likely. Other jurisdictions may benefit from using these recommended applications in their own sediment quality programs.     

Defining acceptable conditions in wilderness

The limits of acceptable change (LAC) planning framework recognizes that forest managers must decide what indicators of wilderness conditions best represent resource naturalness and high-quality visitor experiences and how much change from the pristine is acceptable for each indicator. Visitor opinions on the aspects of the wilderness that have great impact on their experience can provide valuable input to selection of indicators. Cohutta, Georgia; Caney Creek, Arkansas; Upland Island, Texas; and Rattlesnake, Montana, wilderness visitors have high shared agreement that littering and damage to trees in campsites, noise, and seeing wildlife are very important influences on wilderness experiences. Camping within sight or sound of other people influences experience quality more than do encounters on the trails. Visitors’ standards of acceptable conditions within wilderness vary considerably, suggesting a potential need to manage different zones within wilderness for different clientele groups and experiences. Standards across wildernesses, however, are remarkably similar.     

Identifying Reference Conditions and Quantifying Biological Variability Within Benthic Macroinvertebrate Communities in Perennial and Non-perennial Northern California Streams

Identification of minimally disturbed reference sites is a critical step in developing precise and informative ecological indicators. We tested procedures to select reference sites, and quantified natural variation (inter-site and -annual variability) among reference conditions using a macroinvertebrate data set collected from 429 mediterranean-climate stream reaches in the San Francisco Bay Area, California (USA). We determined that a landscape GIS-based stressor screen followed by a local field-based stressor screen effectively identified least-disturbed reference sites that, based on NMS ordination results, supported different biological communities than sites identified with only landscape (GIS) or local (field) stressors. An examination of least-disturbed reference sites indicated that inter-site variability was strongly associated with stream hydrology (i.e., perennial vs. non-perennial flow) and annual precipitation, which highlights the need to control for such variation when developing biological indicators through natural gradient modeling or using unique biological indicators for both non-perennial and perennial streams. Metrics were more variable among non-perennial streams, indicating that additional modeling may be needed to develop precise biological indicators for non-perennial streams. Among 192 sites sampled two to six times over the 8-year study period, the biological community showed moderate inter-annual variability, with the 100 point index of biotic integrity scores varying from 0 to 51 points (mean = 11.5). Variance components analysis indicated that inter-annual variability explained only a fraction (5–18 %) of the total variation when compared against site-level variation; thus efforts to understand causes of natural variation between sites will produce more precise and accurate biological indicators.     

Human Influences on Water Quality in Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands

A better understanding of relationships between human activities and water chemistry is needed to identify and manage sources of anthropogenic stress in Great Lakes coastal wetlands. The objective of the study described in this article was to characterize relationships between water chemistry and multiple classes of human activity (agriculture, population and development, point source pollution, and atmospheric deposition). We also evaluated the influence of geomorphology and biogeographic factors on stressor-water quality relationships. We collected water chemistry data from 98 coastal wetlands distributed along the United States shoreline of the Laurentian Great Lakes and GIS-based stressor data from the associated drainage basin to examine stressor-water quality relationships. The sampling captured broad ranges (1.5–2 orders of magnitude) in total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), total suspended solids (TSS), chlorophyll a (Chl a), and chloride; concentrations were strongly correlated with stressor metrics. Hierarchical partitioning and all-subsets regression analyses were used to evaluate the independent influence of different stressor classes on water quality and to identify best predictive models. Results showed that all categories of stress influenced water quality and that the relative influence of different classes of disturbance varied among water quality parameters. Chloride exhibited the strongest relationships with stressors followed in order by TN, Chl a, TP, TSS, and DIN. In general, coarse scale classification of wetlands by morphology (three wetland classes: riverine, protected, open coastal) and biogeography (two ecoprovinces: Eastern Broadleaf Forest [EBF] and Laurentian Mixed Forest [LMF]) did not improve predictive models. This study provides strong evidence of the link between water chemistry and human stress in Great Lakes coastal wetlands and can be used to inform management efforts to improve water quality in Great Lakes coastal ecosystems.     

遥感技术在城市湖泊演变研究中的应用

以武汉市东湖和沙湖为例,以多时相TM影像为数据源,利用ERDAS软件提取东湖和沙湖1991年、2001年和2006年的水域面积信息从时空两方面对湖泊水域面积的演化特征进行了系统分析。结果表明,1991—2006年湖泊水域面积出现急剧下降,减少了1040.43hm2。分析认为,随着城市经济的发展,对土地的需求会更为迫切,城市湖泊的保护也将面临巨大挑战。遥感技术具有宏观性、动态性与实时性的优势,能够快速、准确地获取大范围地区水域面积变化信息,定量地分析城市湖泊演化规律,为城市湖泊的合理开发、利用和保护提供重要依据。     

Defining and analyzing health system resilience in rural jurisdictions

Environment Systems and Decisions - Rural areas face well known and distinctive health care challenges that can limit their resilience in the face of health emergencies such as the COVID-19...     

Development of plans to restore degraded areas in the Great Lakes

The International Joint Commission's Water Quality Board has identified 42 Areas of Concern in the Great Lakes ecosystem where Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement objectives or jurisdictional standards, criteria or guidelines, established to protect uses, have been exceeded and remedial actions are necessary to restore beneficial uses. As a result of the 1985 report of the Water Quality Board, the eight Great Lakes states and the Province of Ontario committed themselves to developing a remedial action plan (RAP) to restore all uses in each Area of Concern within their political boundaries. Each RAP must identify the specific measures necessary to control existing sources of pollution, abate existing contamination (e.g., contaminated sediments), and restore all beneficial uses. Points which must be explicitly addressed in each RAP include: geographic extent of problem, beneficial uses impaired, causes of problems, remedial measures and a schedule for implementation, responsible agencies, and surveillance and monitoring activities that will be used to track effectiveness of remedial actions. The jurisdictions are responsible for developing RAPs, and the International Joint Commission is responsible for evaluating the adequacy of each RAP and tracking progress in restoring beneficial uses.     

Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making     

A Comparison of Alternative Strategies for Cost-Effective Water Quality Management in Lakes

Roughly 45% of the assessed lakes in the United States are impaired for one or more reasons. Eutrophication due to excess phosphorus loading is common in many impaired lakes. Various strategies are available to lake residents for addressing declining lake water quality, including septic system upgrades and establishing riparian buffers. This study examines 25 lakes to determine whether septic upgrades or riparian buffers are a more cost-effective strategy to meet a phosphorus reduction target. We find that riparian buffers are the more cost-effective strategy in every case but one. Large transaction costs associated with the negotiation and monitoring of riparian buffers, however, may be prohibiting lake residents from implementing the most cost-effective strategy. An erratum to this article is available at .     

湖泊蓝藻水华数字化预警系统构建探讨

构造湖泊蓝藻水华数字化预警系统是我国湖泊水环境管理的一个重要方向。本文探讨了构建湖泊蓝藻水华数字化预警系统的若干技术问题,包括：（1）数字化预警数学模式。提出需重视流域尺度的氮磷营养物和沉积动态输入以及营养物、沉积物对水生态结构动力过程的影响,建立非点源模型和湖泊生态结构动力学模型相耦合的预警数学模型模式;在此基础上提出了各种数学模型的可借鉴模式。（2）湖泊蓝藻水华预警监测技术。总结了常规水质监测的数据筛选方法,探讨了遥感技术和实时传输监测技术在水质监测中的应用模式,提出了实时监测和遥感监测需解决的技术难题和实现方法。（3）湖泊蓝藻数字化预警系统的设计。提出了数学模型系统、水质监控系统的网络化集成设计模式,提出了基于网络化地理信息系统的计算机应用软件实现模式。     

Crisis Water Management and Ibis Breeding at Narran Lakes in Arid Australia

Narran Lakes is a Ramsar site recognised for its importance for colonial waterbird breeding, which only occurs after large highly variable flooding events. In 2008, 74,095 pairs of ibis bred for the first time in seven years, establishing two contiguous colonies, a month apart. Most (97%) of the colony consisted of the straw-necked ibis (Threskiornis spinicollis) with the remainder consisting of glossy ibis (2%, Plegadis falcinellus) and Australian white ibis (1%, T. molucca). Following cessation of river flows, water levels fell rapidly in the colony site, resulting in a crisis management decision by governments to purchase and deliver water (10,423 Ml) to avert mass desertion of the colonies. There were significant differences in the reproductive success of each colony. In colony 1 60% of eggs hatched and 94% of chicks fledged, while in colony 2 40% of eggs hatched with only 17% of chicks fledging. Statistical analyses found that water depth was a significant variable in determining reproductive success. Rapid falls in water level during the chick stage in colony 2 resulted in decreased chick and overall offspring success. The results of this study identify the impact of upstream water resource development on colonial waterbird breeding and have implications for water management policies.     

Projected Climate Change Effects on Winterkill in Shallow Lakes in the Northern United States

2 was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. To illustrate the effect of projected climate change on lake DO characteristics, we present herein DO information simulated, respectively, with inputs of past climate conditions (1961–1979) and with a projected 2 × CO₂ climate scenario, as well as differences of those values. Specific parameters obtained were minimum under-ice and lake bottom DO concentration in winter, duration of under-ice anoxic conditions (<0.1 mg/liter) and low DO conditions (<3 mg/liter), and percentage of anoxic and low DO lake volumes during the ice cover period. Under current climate conditions winterkill occurs typically in shallow eutrophic lakes of the northern contiguous United States. Climate warming is projected to eliminate winterkill in these lakes. This would be a positive effect of climate warming. Fish species under ice may still experience periods of stress and zero growth due to low DO (<3 mg/liter) conditions under projected climate warming.     

A Tool for Modeling the Winter Oxygen Depletion Rate in Arctic Lakes1

Abstract: Many arctic lakes freeze completely in winter. The few that retain unfrozen water for the entire winter period serve as overwintering fish habitat. In addition to serving as fish habitat, water in arctic lakes is needed for industrial and domestic use. Permits for water extraction seek to maximize water use without impacting dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and endangering fish habitat. The relationship between lake volume, winter DO budget, and extraction of water through pumping has historically not been well understood. A management model that could estimate end‐of‐winter DO would improve our understanding of the potential impacts of different management strategies. Using under‐ice DO measurements (November to April) taken from two natural lakes and one flooded gravel mine on the North Slope of Alaska, a physically based model was developed to predict end‐of‐winter DO concentration, water‐column DO profiles, and winter oxygen depletion rate in arctic lakes during periods of ice cover. Comparisons between the measured and model‐predicted oxygen profiles in the three study lakes suggest that the depth‐based DO modeling tool presented herein can be used to adequately predict the amount of DO available in arctic lakes throughout winter.     

Assessing Naturalness in Northern Great Lakes Forests Based on Historical Land-Cover and Vegetation Changes

The concept of naturalness was developed to assess to what degree landscapes represent a natural state. Protected areas are often regarded as the remnants of untouched landscapes although many landscapes commonly perceived as pristine have a long history of human impact. Here, we introduced a historical perspective into the concept of naturalness and the analysis of the effectiveness of protected areas by analyzing historical trajectories in land-cover and forest communities for the Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore on Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (USA). Distribution of land-cover and forest community types was reconstructed for pre-settlement time (around 1850), the height of agricultural expansion (1928), and modern conditions (2000). Naturalness of the landscape was assessed by analyzing similarity between pre-settlement and current conditions and by assessing landscape continuity (1850–1928–2000). We compared changes in the strictly protected park core zone with those in the inland buffer zone with ongoing sustainable logging, and a not protected area adjacent to the park. Forest was the dominant land-cover type over the entire study period. We detected a gradient in land-cover continuity from the core zone (81 % continuity) to the inland buffer zone (74 %) and the area outside the park (66 %). Northern hardwood was the dominating forest type in all time points with high continuity (76 %). In contrast, pine forests show a more dynamic pattern with more than 50 % of the initial forests switching to non-forest or early succession forest types by 1928. More than half of the study area was considered as “natural virgin” (no changes in land-cover and forest community type) with a higher portion within the park than in the adjacent area. In contrast, areas with low naturalness are more abundant outside the park. Our study demonstrates the value of integrating historical information into naturalness assessments and the results provide useful information for future park management. More broadly speaking, our study advances research on the effectiveness of protected areas, by going beyond simple measures of averted deforestation, and introducing approaches to directly measure naturalness.     

Integrated Measures of Anthropogenic Stress in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin

Integrated, quantitative expressions of anthropogenic stress over large geographic regions can be valuable tools in environmental research and management. Despite the fundamental appeal of a regional approach, development of regional stress measures remains one of the most important current challenges in environmental science. Using publicly available, pre-existing spatial datasets, we developed a geographic information system database of 86 variables related to five classes of anthropogenic stress in the U.S. Great Lakes basin: agriculture, atmospheric deposition, human population, land cover, and point source pollution. The original variables were quantified by a variety of data types over a broad range of spatial and classification resolutions. We summarized the original data for 762 watershed-based units that comprise the U.S. portion of the basin and then used principal components analysis to develop overall stress measures within each stress category. We developed a cumulative stress index by combining the first principal component from each of the five stress categories. Maps of the stress measures illustrate strong spatial patterns across the basin, with the greatest amount of stress occurring on the western shore of Lake Michigan, southwest Lake Erie, and southeastern Lake Ontario. We found strong relationships between the stress measures and characteristics of bird communities, fish communities, and water chemistry measurements from the coastal region. The stress measures are taken to represent the major threats to coastal ecosystems in the U.S. Great Lakes. Such regional-scale efforts are critical for understanding relationships between human disturbance and ecosystem response, and can be used to guide environmental decision-making at both regional and local scales.