Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Managing the Koala Problem: Interdisciplinary Perspectives

Abstract: There is a complex scientific, ethical, and cultural debate in Australia about how best to conserve koalas and their habitat. Despite the diverse array of management and research options promoted by scientists, wildlife agency staff, and koala advocates, there remains a gap in our acknowledgment of the social factors influencing decision making about koala conservation. Koala management research has generated valuable scientific knowledge about koala biology and ecology but has been weak about organizational and policy processes and about the cultures within which we produce, disseminate, and legitimize this kind of knowledge. We suggest that more effective koala conservation will result from making the political and cultural influences on decision making regarding the koala more explicit in research, management, and policy-making forums. Research must be conducted in the context of the cultural significance of the koala. The koala's survival depends on preserving the valuable lands that these creatures (and many others) inhabit. Ultimately, the koala symbolizes conflicting land-use values and illustrates the need for greater collaboration, cooperation, and trust among social and natural scientists in the conduct of koala conservation research, management, and policy.     

Evaluating Causes of Population Change in North American Insectivorous Songbirds

Although the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is a principal source of information regarding populations of most North American bird species, many features of the survey complicate analysis of population change. Correlation studies based on BBS data cannot be used to define cause and effect relationships unambiguously. Recently, Böhning-Gaese et al. (1993) presented an analysis of population trends in insectivorous songbirds using data from the BBS. They concluded that predation has played an important role in influencing population trends. We review aspects of the analysis methods for estimating population trends (e.g., observer effects, data subset) and for associating mean trends with species attributes (e.g., confounding of attributes). Using alternative analyses of the same BBS data, we demonstrate that the evidence that predation is associated with population declines is weaker than they suggested. Based on our analyses the only factor among those tested that was consistently associated with population trends was migration status (short-distance migrant/resident versus long-distance migrant) during the period 1978–1987. Also, we present evidence that the harsh winters of the mid-1970s severely depressed populations of short-distance migrant species and may have been responsible for the observed associations between migration status and population trends.     

Science or Slaughter: Need for Lethal Sampling of Sharks

Abstract: General consensus among scientists, commercial interests, and the public regarding the status of shark populations is leading to an increasing need for the scientific community to provide information to help guide effective management and conservation actions. Experience from other marine vertebrate taxa suggests that public, political, and media pressures will play an increasingly important part in setting research, management, and conservation priorities. We examined the potential implications of nonscientific influences on shark research. In particular, we considered whether lethal research sampling of sharks is justified. Although lethal sampling comes at a cost to a population, especially for threatened species, the conservation benefits from well‐designed studies provide essential data that cannot be collected currently in any other way. Methods that enable nonlethal collection of life‐history data on sharks are being developed (e.g., use of blood samples to detect maturity), but in the near future they will not provide widespread or significant benefits. Development of these techniques needs to continue, as does the way in which scientists coordinate their use of material collected during lethal sampling. For almost half of the known shark species there are insufficient data to determine their population status; thus, there is an ongoing need for further collection of scientific data to ensure all shark populations have a future. Shark populations will benefit most when decisions about the use of lethal sampling are made on the basis of scientific evidence that is free from individual, political, public, and media pressures.     

Exploring the conservation status of an endangered coastal plant over the last nine years: a case study in Andalusia,Spain

Human pressure has been exponentially growing during recent decades in coastal areas, which have led to drastic losses of biodiversity in coastal ecosystems. The current conservation status of many coastal plant species is directly related to a lack of environmental criteria in the urban planning of coastal areas over recent decades. This study aimed to evaluate the evolution, over the last 9 years, of the conservation status of various populations of the endangered plant Glaucium flavum, exploring the extent to which human pressure and different management strategies practiced in the coastal areas where the populations are established have affected the conservation status of the species. The populations analysed have evolved in a different manner over the last 9 years, as have their threat factors, and a relationship was evident between their conservation status and the evolution of these different threat factors. Our results indicate that an appropriate planning of local management actions, such as the installation of walkways or the successful eradication of invasive species, may be determinant factors for successful conservation of the coastal vegetation. The presence of species that are sensitive to slight changes in the ecosystem, and the main factors that govern the plant performance of these species, must be given full consideration in decision-making processes of coastal planning and management.     

Hidden demographic impacts of fishing and environmental drivers of fecundity in a sea turtle population

Fisheries bycatch is a critical threat to sea turtle populations worldwide, particularly because turtles are vulnerable to multiple gear types. The Canary Current is an intensely fished region, yet there has been no demographic assessment integrating bycatch and population management information of the globally significant Cabo Verde loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) population. Using Boa Vista island (Eastern Cabo Verde) subpopulation data from capture–recapture and nest monitoring (2013–2019), we evaluated population viability and estimated regional bycatch rates (2016–2020) in longline, trawl, purse-seine, and artisanal fisheries. We further evaluated current nesting trends in the context of bycatch estimates, existing hatchery conservation measures, and environmental (net primary productivity) variability in turtle foraging grounds. We projected that current bycatch mortality rates would lead to the near extinction of the Boa Vista subpopulation. Bycatch reduction in longline fisheries and all fisheries combined would increase finite population growth rate by 1.76% and 1.95%, respectively. Hatchery conservation increased hatchling production and reduced extinction risk, but alone it could not achieve population growth. Short-term increases in nest counts (2013–2021), putatively driven by temporary increases in net primary productivity, may be masking ongoing long-term population declines. When fecundity was linked to net primary productivity, our hindcast models simultaneously predicted these opposing long-term and short-term trends. Consequently, our results showed conservation management must diversify from land-based management. The masking effect we found has broad-reaching implications for monitoring sea turtle populations worldwide, demonstrating the importance of directly estimating adult survival and that nest counts might inadequately reflect underlying population trends.     

Application of multiple-population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful conservation tool, but it remains impractical for many species, particularly species with multiple, broadly distributed populations for which collecting suitable data can be challenging. A recently developed method of multiple-population viability analysis (MPVA), however, addresses many limitations of traditional PVA. We built on previous development of MPVA for Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT) (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi), a species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, that is distributed broadly across habitat fragments in the Great Basin (U.S.A.). We simulated potential management scenarios and assessed their effects on population sizes and extinction risks in 211 streams, where LCT exist or may be reintroduced. Conservation populations (those managed for recovery) tended to have lower extinction risks than nonconservation populations (mean = 19.8% vs. 52.7%), but not always. Active management or reprioritization may be warranted in some cases. Eliminating non-native trout had a strong positive effect on overall carrying capacities for LCT populations but often did not translate into lower extinction risks unless simulations also reduced associated stochasticity (to the mean for populations without non-native trout). Sixty fish or 5–10 fish/km was the minimum reintroduction number and density, respectively, that provided near-maximum reintroduction success. This modeling framework provided crucial insights and empirical justification for conservation planning and specific adaptive management actions for this threatened species. More broadly, MPVA is applicable to a wide range of species exhibiting geographic rarity and limited availability of abundance data and greatly extends the potential use of empirical PVA for conservation assessment and planning.     

The contribution of community wisdom to conservation ecology

Scientists have traditionally collected data on whether a population is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same, but such studies are often limited by geographic scale and time frame. This means that for many species, understanding of trends comes from only part of their ranges at particular periods. Working with citizen scientists has the potential to overcome these limits. Citizen science has the added benefit of exposing citizens to the scientific process and engaging them in management outcomes. We examined a different way of using citizen scientists (instead of data collection). We asked community members to answer a question directly and thus examined whether community wisdom can inform conservation. We reviewed the results of 3 mail‐in surveys that asked community members to say whether they thought koala populations were increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. We then compared the survey results with population trends derived from more traditional research. Population trends identified through community wisdom were similar to the trends identified by traditional research. The community wisdom surveys, however, allowed the question to be addressed at much broader geographical scales and time frames. Studies that apply community wisdom have the benefit of engaging a broad section of the community in conservation research and education and therefore in the political process of conserving species.     

Building a better baseline to estimate 160 years of avian population change and create historically informed conservation targets

Globally, anthropogenic land-cover change has been dramatic over the last few centuries and is frequently invoked as a major cause of wildlife population declines. Baseline data currently used to assess population trends, however, began well after major changes to the landscape. In the United States and Canada, breeding bird population trends are assessed by the North American Breeding Bird Survey, which began in the 1960s. Estimates of distribution and abundance prior to major habitat alteration would add historical perspective to contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets. We used a hindcasting framework to estimate change in distribution and abundance of 7 bird species in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (United States). After reconciling classification schemes of current and 1850s reconstructed land cover, we used multiscale species distribution models and hierarchical distance sampling models to predict spatially explicit densities in the modern and historical landscapes. We estimated that since the 1850s, White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis) and Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta) populations, 2 species sensitive to fragmentation of oak woodlands and grasslands, declined by 93% and 97%, respectively. Five other species we estimated nearly stable or increasing populations, despite steep regional declines since the 1960s. Based on these estimates, we developed historically based conservation targets for amount of habitat, population, and density for each species. Hindcasted reconstructions provide historical perspective for assessing contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets that can inform current management.     

A roadmap for ladybird conservation and recovery

Ladybirds (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) provide services that are critical to food production, and they fulfill an ecological role as a food source for predators. The richness, abundance, and distribution of ladybirds, however, are compromised by many anthropogenic threats. Meanwhile, a lack of knowledge of the conservation status of most species and the factors driving their population dynamics hinders the development and implementation of conservation strategies for ladybirds. We conducted a review of the literature on the ecology, diversity, and conservation of ladybirds to identify their key ecological threats. Ladybird populations are most affected by climate factors, landscape composition, and biological invasions. We suggest mitigating actions for ladybird conservation and recovery. Short-term actions include citizen science programs and education, protective measures for habitat recovery and threatened species, prevention of the introduction of non-native species, and the maintenance and restoration of natural areas and landscape heterogeneity. Mid-term actions involve the analysis of data from monitoring programs and insect collections to disentangle the effect of different threats to ladybird populations, understand habitat use by taxa on which there is limited knowledge, and quantify temporal trends of abundance, diversity, and biomass along a management-intensity gradient. Long-term actions include the development of a worldwide monitoring program based on standardized sampling to fill data gaps, increase explanatory power, streamline analyses, and facilitate global collaborations.     

Combining Power Analysis and Population Viability Analysis to Compare Traditional and Precautionary Approaches to Conservation of Coastal Cetaceans

Abstract: Traditionally, marine resources have been managed such that controls on new developments are implemented only when harmful effects on other environmental or economic interests can be demonstrated. This approach poses particular problems for the conservation of coastal cetaceans because potential threats to their populations are diverse and likely to interact, individual threats may result from multiple sources, and the problems inherent in studying cetaceans result in considerable scientific uncertainty and low statistical power to detect any effects. Consequently, many countries are adopting integrated coastal management programs and precautionary management principles. In practice, however, issues continue to be dealt with within traditional frameworks that require demonstration of harm. Because cetaceans are long-lived, they demand long-term studies, and populations could decline to dangerously low levels before management action is taken. We illustrate these problems using a case study from the Moray Firth, Scotland. This inshore area will soon be designated and managed as a "special area of conservation" to protect bottlenose dolphins (   Tursiops truncatus ) under the European Community's Habitats Directive. The population is small and isolated, and it faces a wide range of potential threats, but there remains considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of each threat. We combined power analysis and population viability analysis to explore the relative consequences of adopting either traditional or precautionary approaches to management. In this case, our results reaffirm the need for precautionary management. More generally, we illustrate how this approach can be used to provide a more scientific basis for determining the level of precaution required to address particular management issues in this and other marine systems.     

The Effectiveness of Removing Predators to Protect Bird Populations

The control of predators for nature conservation purposes is becoming an increasingly important issue. The growing populations of predator species in some areas and the introduction of predators in other areas have led to concerns about their impact on vulnerable bird species and to the implementation of predator control in some cases. This is set against a background of increasingly fragmented semi-natural habitats and declining populations for many species. To assess the efficiency of predator removal as a conservation measure, the results of 20 published studies of predator removal programs were meta-analyzed. Removing predators had a large, positive effect on hatching success of the target bird species, with removal areas showing higher hatching success, on average, than 75% of the control areas. Similarly, predator removal increased significantly post-breeding population sizes (i.e. autumn densities) of the target bird species. The effect of predator removal on breeding population sizes was not significant, however, with studies differing widely in their reported effects. We conclude that predator removal often fulfills the goal of game management, which is to enhance harvestable post-breeding populations, but that it is much less consistent in achieving the usual aim of conservation managers, which is to maintain and, where appropriate, increase bird breeding population sizes. This may be due to inherent characteristics of avian population regulation, but also to ineffective predator removal and inadequate subsequent monitoring of the prey populations.     

Effects of protected areas on survival of threatened gibbons in China

Establishing protected areas (PAs) is an essential strategy to reduce biodiversity loss. However, many PAs do not provide adequate protection due to poor funding, inadequate staffing and equipment, and ineffective management. As part of China's recent economic growth, the Chinese government has significantly increased investment in nature reserves over the past 20 years, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate whether PAs can protect threatened species effectively. We compiled data from published literature on populations of gibbons (Hylobatidae), a threatened taxon with cultural significance, that occurred in Chinese reserves after 1980. We evaluated the ability of these PAs to maintain gibbon habitat and populations by comparing forest cover and human disturbance between reserves and their surrounding areas and modeling the impact of reserve characteristics on gibbon population trends. We also assessed the perspective of reserve staff concerning PA management effectiveness through an online survey. Reserves effectively protected gibbon habitat by reducing forest loss and human disturbance; however, half the reserves lost their gibbon populations since being established. Gibbons were more likely to survive in reserves established more recently, at higher elevation, with less forest loss and lower human impact, and that have been relatively well studied. A larger initial population size in the 1980s was positively associated with gibbon persistence. Although staff of all reserves reported increased investment and improved management over the past 20–30 years, no relationship was found between management effectiveness and gibbon population trends. We suggest early and emphatic intervention is critical to stop population decline and prevent extinction.     

A Decision Framework for the Adaptive Management of an Exploited Species with Implications for Marine Reserves

Abstract:  Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate ( λ ) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate λ based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the λ declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive λ value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of λ increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.     

Role of Genetic Refuges in the Restoration of Native Gene Pools of Brown Trout

Abstract:  Captive-bred animals derived from native, alien, or hybrid stocks are often released in large numbers in natural settings with the intention of augmenting harvests. In brown trout ( Salmo trutta ), stocking with hatchery-reared non-native fish has been the main management strategy used to maintain or improve depleted wild brown trout populations in Iberian and other Mediterranean regions. This measure has become a serious threat to the conservation of native genetic diversity, mainly due to introgressive hybridization. Aware of this risk, the agency responsible for management of brown trout in the eastern Pyrenees (Spain) created "brown trout genetic refuges" to preserve the integrity of brown trout gene pools in this region. Within refuge areas, the prerefuge status with respect to fishing activities has been maintained, but hatchery releases have been banned completely. We evaluated this management strategy through a comparison of the stocking impact on native populations that accounted for stocking histories before and after refuge designations and fishing activities. In particular we examined the relevant scientific, cultural, and political challenges encountered. Despite agency willingness to change fishery policies to balance exploitation and conservation, acceptance of these new policies by anglers and genetic monitoring of refuge populations should also be considered. To improve management supported by genetic refuges, we suggest focusing on areas where the public is more receptive, considering the situation of local native diversity, and monitoring of adjacent introgressed populations. We recommend the use of directional supportive breeding only when a population really needs to be enhanced. In any case, management strategies should be developed to allow for protection within the context of human use.     

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact.     

From Red Lists to Species of Conservation Concern

Abstract:  National red lists of threatened animal and plant species prepared according to the criteria of the World Conservation Union (IUCN) adequately reflect the extinction risk of species within a country but cannot be used directly to set conservation priorities. In particular, the significance of national populations for the conservation of the species as a whole is not taken into account. We present a procedure that can be used to assess national responsibility based on the national red-list status of a species, the international importance of the national population, and the species' "historical rarity" status. We distinguished five responsibility classes for breeding birds: B1, threatened species with internationally important populations in Switzerland; B2, threatened species with internationally less important populations; B3, nonthreatened species with internationally important populations; B4, nonthreatened species with internationally less important populations; and B5, species that have never been common in Switzerland. Two responsibility classes were distinguished for birds occurring in Switzerland as visitors: G1, species with large concentrations in Switzerland and an unfavorable conservation status in Europe, and G2, species with large concentrations in Switzerland and a favorable conservation status in Europe. Two additional classes (G3 and G4) for visiting species occurring in internationally less important numbers are possible but were not analyzed in detail. Responsibility classes B1, B2, B3, G1, and G2 were defined as species of national conservation concern. We developed the method for birds in Switzerland, but it can be used in other countries and for other taxonomic groups as well. It is particularly suitable where national red lists are established according to IUCN guidelines.     

A Retrospective Evaluation of the Global Decline of Carnivores and Ungulates

Assessing temporal changes in species extinction risk is necessary for measuring conservation success or failure and for directing conservation resources toward species or regions that would benefit most. Yet, there is no long‐term picture of genuine change that allows one to associate species extinction risk trends with drivers of change or conservation actions. Through a review of 40 years of IUCN‐related literature sources on species conservation status (e.g., action plans, red‐data books), we assigned retrospective red‐list categories to the world's carnivores and ungulates (2 groups with relatively long generation times) to examine how their extinction risk has changed since the 1970s. We then aggregated species’ categories to calculate a global trend in their extinction risk over time. A decline in the conservation status of carnivores and ungulates was underway 40 years ago and has since accelerated. One quarter of all species (n = 498) moved one or more categories closer to extinction globally, while almost half of the species moved closer to extinction in Southeast Asia. The conservation status of some species improved (toward less threatened categories), but for each species that improved in status 8 deteriorated. The status of large‐bodied species, particularly those above 100 kg (including many iconic taxa), deteriorated significantly more than small‐bodied species (below 10 kg). The trends we found are likely related to geopolitical events (such as the collapse of Soviet Union), international regulations (such as CITES), shifting cultural values, and natural resource exploitation (e.g., in Southeast Asia). Retrospective assessments of global species extinction risk reduce the risk of a shifting baseline syndrome, which can affect decisions on the desirable conservation status of species. Such assessments can help conservationists identify which conservation policies and strategies are or are not helping safeguard biodiversity and thus can improve future strategies. Una Evaluación Retrospectiva de la Declinación Global de Carnívoros y Ungulados     

Implications from Mitochondrial DNA for Management to Conserve the Eastern Barred Bandicoot (Perameles gunnii)

On mainland Australia, the eastern barred bandicoot, Perameles gunnii , is confined to a relic wild population numbering less than 100 individuals in the city of Hamilton. Animals derived from this population are being bred in captivity in order to promote their recovery. The species also exists in Tasmania, where tittle is known of its conservation and taxonomic status. Mitochondrial DNA variability was compared within and between populations of P. gunnii using restriction fragment length polymorphisms. Genetic variability was found to be high among P. gunnii in Hamilton compared to those in Tasmania (higher diversity index, nucleotide sequence divergence, and greater number of haplotypes), despite the known decline and subdivision of the Hamilton population. Restriction fragment length polymorphisms distinguished animals from the east and the west of Hamilton and from the north and south of Tasmania. Nucleotide sequence divergence was substantial (2.2–2.5%) between Hamilton and Tasmania. Implications are that captive breeding and reintroduction should be designed to genetically represent the structure within Hamilton in order to minimize inbreeding and that the introduction of Tasmanian P. gunnii would not benefit the Hamilton population. It is concluded that mitochondrial DNA markers clearly can provide useful information about the history and current status of endangered marsupial populations, to the benefit of conservation management.