入世前后中国农业贸易引致的就业“创造与替代”

我国加入世贸组织后,除了粮食安全、比较优势、竞争力等方面的影响研究外,农产品贸易开放对我国农业生产部门就业的影响一直令人关注,是具有比较优势的劳动密集型农产品出口带来更多就业创造,还是土地密集型农产品进口引致更多就业替代?本文运用1994-2009年数据,对入世前后农产品贸易开放引致的农业就业效应进行全面系统的实证分析,并对在不同情形下我国未来贸易引致的农业就业替代效应的程度和方式进行了模拟分析。研究结果表明:入世后我国农产品贸易引致的农业就业效应呈现出更明显的就业净替代变化;同时,在技术水平不变的情况下,我国未来劳动密集型农产品的实际出口增速与平抑就业替代压力的"理想增速"相距甚远,未来土地密集型净进口所产生的农业就业替代量将在较大程度上超过劳动密集型净出口创造的就业机会,我国农业就业整体"净替代"的趋势可能将长期持续。     

退耕还林工程对农户生产生活影响研究

研究退耕还林工程与农户的关系对于退耕还林后续问题解决,完善工程具有重要意义.该研究在准格尔旗多年农户调查的基础上,对该旗退耕还林工程初期(2002年)和后期(2010年)农户生产生活情况进行了对比研究,主要探讨了退耕还林工程对农户家庭结构、收入水平和结构的影响,以及农户对退耕还林态度、禁牧圈养态度变化和对退耕还林工程评价,最后分析了农户返耕决策.研究结果表明:受访农户平均年龄由2002年的35.02岁上升为2010年的45.32岁,年轻农户比重明显下降;户均人口从2002年的3.75人下降到2010年的2.8人.农户人均毛收入由2002年的1 332.03元增长为2010年的5447.77元;收入结构也由牧业为主转为外出务工为主;养羊农户比重明显减小,但户均规模有增大的趋势.农户依然高度支持退耕还林,但对退耕补贴的满意度下降,大部分依然赞成禁牧和圈养,但支持力度有不同程度的下降.农户将退耕地返耕可能性较小,且大部分受访农户还支持进一步退耕.     

区位与家庭农场发展路径:理论与实证

调查数据显示,位于都市郊区的家庭农场具有复合经营程度高、高附加值农产品生产偏向、种植类家庭农场经营规模较小的显著特征;而位于一般农业区的家庭农场则相反,即复合经营程度低、低附加值农产品生产偏向、种植类家庭农场经营规模较大。这种差异表明,都市郊区和一般农业区的家庭农场发展路径出现了分化。为此,对这一现象产生的机制进行理论分析,并利用1 162份家庭农场问卷调查数据构建Logit或多项Logit模型实证检验,结果表明:区位条件的差异促使都市郊区和一般农业区的家庭农场经营范围出现差异,都市郊区的家庭农场可依托毗邻消费中心的区位优势经营附加值更高的蔬菜瓜果和水产品等,从而获取更高收益,而一般农业区的家庭农场则由于距离城市消费中心较远、运输成本高,更多经营粮油作物、经济作物等。都市郊区和一般农业区的家庭农场经营范围差异与不同农产品的风险差异结合,导致两种区位条件地区的家庭农场复合经营程度不同;都市郊区和一般农业区的家庭农场经营范围差异与不同农产品的劳动投入力度差异结合,导致两种区位条件地区的种植类家庭农场经营规模不同。各地政府应当充分考虑当地的区位条件,都市郊区应当着重发展面向都市农业的家庭农场和农业社会化服务体系,一般农业区则应侧重于大田农业的家庭农场和农业社会化服务体系,促进家庭农场发展方向和社会化服务体系匹配,提高政策实施的精准性。     

蔬菜出口产地农户对食品安全规制的认知及其农药决策行为研究

食品安全与农药残留一直是备受关注的焦点问题。基于此,本文应用山东省蔬菜出口产地安丘市392个农户的调查数据,对农户食品安全规制的认知及其农药使用行为的影响因素进行了分析。研究结果表明,农户的学历层次、农产品国内销售和出口日本的比例、农户对国内外农产品市场的评价及是否接受农药残留检测显著影响其对食品安全规制的认知;而农户的平均生产支出、是否接受农药残留检测、检测标准的严格程度及是否作生产记录影响其农药使用行为。此外,本文发现该制度的实施导致一些农户产生逆向选择,且农户的农药使用因种植结构而不同。针对当前农业生产的特点和食品安全现状,为了促进当地农业生产方式的转变和保护生态环境,政府应加强对农业主体的培训和技术指导,引导当地农户加强与产业组织的联系,有效开展农药残留检测、优化种植结构,提高农产品的质量和国际竞争力。     

不同类型功能区农户参与农田生态补偿政策的意愿及差异性——以武汉、荆门和麻城为实证

以湖北省武汉、荆门和黄冈为实证,分析重点开发区、农产品主产区和重点生态功能区等不同类型主体功能区农户参与农田生态补偿政策的偏好及差异性,应用Logistic回归模型分析其影响因素。研究表明:1大部分农户比较重视农田生态环境数量、质量保护,但对基本农田保护政策和农田生态补偿政策的认知较匮乏;2多数农户愿意将自家耕地划入基本农田保护区,但有经济补偿时其参与意愿会提高;3影响农户参与意愿的因素有年龄、教育程度、月收入情况、农业收入比、了解农田生态补偿政策和是否知道国家实行基本农田保护制度。     

城市居民低碳购买行为模型研究——基于五个城市的调研数据

随着全球气候的变暖,低碳生活、低碳消费成为人们关注的热点。本文通过构建模型,从消费者的个人层面和文化层面研究了中国城市居民低碳购买行为的影响因素,结果表明,城市居民的个人因素(低碳认知、低碳情感)和文化因素(集体主义、天人合一)以低碳购买态度为中介,进而正向影响其低碳购买意向,但它们的影响程度存在差异,个人因素对低碳购买态度的影响要大于文化因素,在个人因素中,低碳情感的影响要大于低碳认知,在文化因素中,天人合一的影响要略高于集体主义;而在低碳购买态度到购买意向之间会受到居民对低碳产品信任程度的调节作用。     

社会人口特征与环境关心:基于农村的数据

环境问题是一个可以跨越群体界分从而被全社会普遍关注的问题,还是一个只被具有某些特征的群体关注的问题?背后的机制是什么?这是环境研究领域一个广泛研究的主题.我国学者己就城市居民环境关心及其社会基础开展了一些研究,但仍缺乏基于农村的调查研究.本文利用农村环境的调查数据,就农村居民的社会人口特征对其环境关心的影响进行了回归分析.研究表明,与城市研究发现一致,在中国农村,教育对环境关心也有着积极影响.但与城市发现不同的是,在农村年龄对环境关心起着消极影响,而且尽管男性在环境知识和感知上高于女性,两性在环境态度上并无显著差异.另外,研究还发现主观社会地位对环境关心有积极影响,外出打工经历有消极影响,而主观经济地位和党员身份对环境关心都无显著影响.最后也是本研究最令人兴奋的发现是,政治价值观对环境关心各个因子都有非常显著的影响.     

中国开发式扶贫基金流向问题研究

中国"开发式"扶贫制度在广大的农村地区显示出显著性的成效,其取得的济贫效果为世界各国所认可,但随着开发式扶贫制度的深入,其资金的流向不明及瞄偏性等问题日益突出。本文在目前"硬政绩"与"软政绩"双重评价体系下,从地方政府的扶贫基金对不同类型企业的补贴力度的视角来分析利益转移问题,采用赫克曼选择模型分析了扶贫基金流向的状况。虽然经验分析结果显示,扶贫基金的流向渠道很大程度上具有利益瞄准贫困群体的功能。但赫克曼模型的一阶段估计结果显示扶贫基金流向对象在很大程度上显示出"利益转移"的特征。贫困地区的扶贫基金却能够做到更好的瞄准性,而东部省市出现了扶贫基金的"利益转移"问题。鉴于此,笔者认为应该给予"软政绩"这个评价体制更多的指标和更大的权重,约束地方政府干预的重心倾向于劳动密集型企业和以中低收入群体为主的扶贫龙头企业,从而能够真正的发挥"开发式"扶贫基金的初始功能。     

电商参与促进农户绿色生产吗?——基于3省4县812户果农的实证研究北大核心CSCDCSSCI

农业绿色生产是保障中国农产品质量安全、缓解生态环境恶化问题的根本路径。虽然学术界对影响农户绿色生产行为的因素进行了较为丰富的研究,但人们对农产品电商与果农绿色生产之间的关系知之甚少。因此,文章深入探讨了电商参与和果农绿色生产行为的关系及其影响机制,并基于三省四县812份实地调研的农户数据,运用RBP模型进行实证检验,然后对结果的稳健性与异质性展开探讨。研究发现:(1)电商参与能够提高果农绿色生产的实施概率,处理组平均处理效应为24.7%,通过更换模型和替换解释变量等一系列方法进行稳健性讨论后,上述基准结论稳健可靠。(2)电商参与对不同绿色生产行为的处理效应存在差异,按照ATT数值由大到小依次为:严格按照标准施药、物理防控措施、生物防控措施。(3)电商参与能够通过提升绿色生产认知、提高农产品价格预期和追求消费者正向口碑影响果农实施绿色生产行为。因此,应加大农产品电商宣传与推广力度,提高果农电商参与程度;与此同时,应确保农产品电商在通过实施绿色生产提升农产品质量并获得质量溢价方面的有效性,进而促进电商参与率与绿色生产实施率协同提高。此外,应强化政府在果农绿色生产上的引导作用。     

不同政策对农户农药施用行为的影响

农户不规范的施药行为是引发农产品质量安全风险最直接的原因,为规范农户的施药行为,政府颁布并实施了多种政策,但大多收效甚微。农户不规范的施药行为主要表现在过量使用高毒农药、施用过程中不按规定操作以及农药残留物的处理问题上,如何针对农户不同的施药行为制定相应的政策,以达到有效规范农户施药行为的效果,这是本文研究的主要目的。文章基于全国986个农户的调查数据,运用有序logistic模型,分别回归了不同政策对农户过量施用农药的行为、不遵守施药间隔期的行为以及在施药过程中不阅读标签说明的行为的影响程度,结果表明:强令禁止高毒农药、对违反农产品安全生产进行处罚以及对收购的农产品进行检测等命令控制政策对农户是否过量施用农药的行为具有较强的规范效应,但对农户在施药过程中是否阅读标签说明的规范效果不佳;农药施用技术培训、农产品安全生产宣传教育等宣传培训的政策能有效规范农户在施药前阅读标签说明,但对农户是否过量施用农药的影响不大;以市场为基础的激励政策对农户过量施用农药、阅读标签说明以及遵守间隔期均有显著的规范效果。由此提出,政府在实施命令控制政策的同时,应加强农产品安全知识的宣传力度,定期为农户提供农药施用技术培训;由于以市场为基础的激励政策能有效弥补命令控制政策的监管漏洞,从而更有效的规范农户的施药行为,因此要建立激励惩罚机制,对使用生物农药、施用有机肥等具有正外部性的投入行为进行补贴,对使用高污染、高毒农药的行为进行征税,充分发挥市场为基础的监管政策的有效性。     

Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs

Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment.     

Examining the Impact of Expert Voices: Communicating the Scientific Consensus on Genetically-modified Organisms

Scholars are divided over whether communicating to the public the existence of scientific consensus on an issue influences public acceptance of the conclusions represented by that consensus. Here, we examine the influence of four messages on perception and acceptance of the scientific consensus on the safety of genetically modified organisms (GMOs): two messages supporting the idea that there is a consensus that GMOs are safe for human consumption and two questioning that such a consensus exists. We found that although participants concluded that the pro-consensus messages made stronger arguments and were likely to be more representative of the scientific community’s attitudes, those messages did not abate participants’ concern about GMOs. In fact, people’s pre-manipulation attitudes toward GMOs were the strongest predictor of of our outcome variables (i.e. perceived argument strength, post-message GMO concern, perception of what percent of scientists agree). Thus, the results of this study do not support the hypothesis that consensus messaging changes the public’s hearts and minds, and provide more support, instead, for the strong role of motivated reasoning.     

A comparative evaluation of the regulation of GM crops or products containing dsRNA and suggested improvements to risk assessments

Changing the nature, kind and quantity of particular regulatory-RNA molecules through genetic engineering can create biosafety risks. While some genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are intended to produce new regulatory-RNA molecules, these may also arise in other GMOs not intended to express them. To characterise, assess and then mitigate the potential adverse effects arising from changes to RNA requires changing current approaches to food or environmental risk assessments of GMOs. We document risk assessment advice offered to government regulators in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil during official risk evaluations of GM plants for use as human food or for release into the environment (whether for field trials or commercial release), how the regulator considered those risks, and what that experience teaches us about the GMO risk assessment framework. We also suggest improvements to the process.     

Using the WTO/TBT enquiry point to monitor tendencies in the regulation of environment, health, and safety issues affecting the chemical industry

The growing importance of technical regulation affecting the use and sale of chemical products is a topic of interest not only for the chemical industry, but also for governments, nongovernmental organizations, consumers, and interested communities. The results of such regulation on behalf of the environment, health and safety of individuals, as well as its economic effects on industrial activity, are well understood in the United States and recently in the European Union. In less developed countries, however, the general level of public understanding of these issues is still minimal. It is common knowledge that the so-called "regulatory asymmetry" between countries at different levels of development contributes to the establishment of technical barriers to trade. Such asymmetries, however, also have other impacts: the displacement of polluting industrial sectors to countries which have less demanding regulations, the concentration of unsafe and harmful environmental conditions in certain parts of the globe, and the competitive disadvantage for industries located in countries where control is more rigid. This study analyses information on a wide range of technical regulations issued by World Trade Organization (WTO) members, and focuses on those regulations that affect the chemical industry. This information is available through the WTO Enquiry Points, organizations created in each country to administrate the Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement (TBT). This article consists of an analysis of 4,301 notifications of technical regulations by WTO member states in the 7-year period following the establishment of the WTO in 1995. Starting from this mass of information, 585 notifications that affect the circulation or use of chemical products were isolated. Of this group, 71% refer to only 15 countries. This group of notifications was further classified according to their motivation (the environment, health, safety), by the type of product affected (medications, fuels, hazardous products, etc.), by the type of country where it was established (developed, emerging or developing) and the existing conformity assessment mechanism (prohibition, licenses, certification, labeling, etc.). Beyond identifying tendencies in specific industrial sectors, the notifications studied here reach more than 100 chemical products, substances, preparations and other materials, which are subject to various levels of restrictions in different parts of the globe because of their composition or adverse reactions during their life cycles.     

Determination of 2-butoxyethanol emissions from selected consumer products and its application in assessment of inhalation exposure associated with cleaning tasks

Consumer products are important sources of human exposure to certain chemicals. Recent regulatory requirements for assessing human exposure to three glycol ethers, namely 2-methoxyethanol (ME), 2-ethoxyethanol (EE) and 2-butoxyethanol (BE), have prompted the investigation of these chemicals in consumer products and their emission characteristics. Thirteen products were selected for investigation based on their potential of containing the chemicals. Headspace results indicated that ME and EE were not present in any of the 13 selected products, while BE was detected in the headspace samples of seven products, of which five were household cleaning agents. Other related compounds such as 2-hexyloxyethanol (HE) and 2-(2-butoxyethoxy)ethanol (BEE) were also detected in the headspace samples of some products. BE emissions from five cleaning related products were measured using a field and laboratory emission cell (FLEC) with its subunit to provide emission data for inhalation exposure assessment purposes. These products had initial emission factors ranging from 145 to 938 mg m(-2) h(-1) under the experimental conditions. It was found that the emission factor of BE was inversely proportional to the dilution factor of the products. A good relationship was established between the emission factor of BE and its concentrations in water-based products. Based on product use scenarios developed by US EPA and an assumed "standard room," average daily inhalation exposure levels of a resident as a result of performing cleaning tasks were estimated to be 0.075 and 0.186 mg (kg b.w.)(-1) day(-1) for two all-purpose spray cleaners, and 0.004 and 0.006 mg (kg b.w.)(-1) day(-1) for two-spray glass cleaners, respectively.     

论徽州软体文化旅游资源的元价值与生存困境

首先界定了软体文化旅游资源的概念：即以“非物化”的形式承载并惠及子孙。具有潜在的巨大经济含量,以适当的方式可以开发成旅游产品的文化存在。接着．探讨了软体文化旅游资源在徽州文化旅游开发中的元价值地位。指出软体文化资源是徽州文化旅游产品的灵魂．因而也是其生命周期之长短的决定性因素。在此认识的基础上．文章基于徽州文化旅游资源开发的现状．论述了徽州当前原生性软体文化资源存续的四大困境：生存环境逼仄、文化认同危机、研究与发掘滞后、制度制定不足等问题;最后．提出软体文化资源开发的有关对策：梯度开发、建章立制、去商业化、培养社区情感等。     

An assessment of the toxicity of pyridinium chlorides and their biodegradation intermediates

Toxicity investigations were conducted for four pyridinium chlorides belonging to cationic surface-active substances (CSAS), which differed from each other in the numbers of methyl groups (CH(3)) in pyridinium ring.The crustacean Daphnia magna, the fish Lebistes reticulatus and the alga Scenedesmus quadricauda were chosen as biotests. Toxicity of examined preparations appeared to be very high but did not depend on their chemical structure. S. quadricauda was the most sensitive organism. Toxicity of intermediate products obtained in biological oxidation process was also examined. Biodegradation was conducted according to the "river water test". It was found that only partial degradation took place while pyridinium chlorides constituted main energy and carbon source. Presence of biodegradation intermediate products was shown on the basis of 1H NMR analysis. Intermediates were not toxic to any biotests.     

碳关税对中国出口贸易的影响及应对策略

碳关税是美国提出的针对国际贸易中高能耗进口产品征税的一种新型绿色贸易壁垒。从表面上看,碳关税的提出是为了缓解全球气候变暖的现实,促进全球贸易的公平竞争。实质上,碳关税的提出是美国国内政治经济博弈的结果,其目的是为了夺取世界经济新的话语权,同时也是为了制衡中国在内的发展中国家。碳关税对我国出口的影响机制有二:第一,碳关税产生的价格效应促使出口商品成本上升,出口量下降,造成出口国净福利损失。第二,长期来看,碳关税的环境规制效应会促使出口企业实施创新、改进效率,企业竞争力增强。但是,就短期来说,由于我国尚不具备"波特假说"成立的前提条件,碳关税会促使成本上升,出口产品竞争力下降。本文系统分析了我国出口商品结构和地理方向,指出碳关税的推出将对我国当前出口贸易形成严峻的挑战,长期看将有利于我国市场结构、产业结构和出口结构的改善。基于以上的分析,文章提出了政府"环境外交"、逐步开征国内碳税、构建绿色制造体系等政策建议。     

我国农产品贸易中的虚拟耕地交易分析

虚拟耕地是指隐含在农产品贸易中,生产这些农产品过程中所必需占用的土地资源,有意识的在国际农产品贸易中实施虚拟耕地战略,对于平衡国内耕地赤字、保障粮食安全,发挥我国农产品在国际市场上的竞争优势具有重要的理论指导意义。首先介绍了虚拟耕地的定义及其量化方法,接着分析计算了我国谷物、油籽、棉花等几类主要农产品单位重量的虚拟耕地含量,在此基础上,对当前农产品进出口贸易中虚拟耕地的交易现状及未来发展趋势作了分析和预测。结果显示：近10 a来虚拟耕地净进口量出现持续增长,2006年,通过农产品国际贸易净进口虚拟耕地16602903.1 hm²,约占当年全国耕地总面积的12.77%。同时,虚拟耕地净进口量在今后若干年仍将保持增长态势。     

Analysis of China''s Water Security and Virtual Water Trade

Producing goods and services all needs water consumption. The water used in the process of an agricultural or industrial product is called the "Virtual Water" contained in this product.Through international trade, water-scarce countries and regions could purchase water-intensive products--especially foods, from water-rich countries to balance their water deficits and achieve water safety. China is one of the 13 most water-deficit countries whose water safety have been severely challenged. This paper generalized the recent global research development and made a brief introduction about the methods calculating virtual water content in specific products. As a case study, we qualified China's annual virtual water flows from year 2000 to 2002 with trade in crops, and ended with some policy advice for application and practice of virtual water strategy.