Assessing the effectiveness of marine reserves on unsustainably harvested long-lived sessile invertebrates

Although the rapid recovery of fishes after establishment of a marine reserve is well known, much less is known about the response of long-lived, sessile, benthic organisms to establishment of such reserves. Since antiquity, Mediterranean red coral (Corallium rubrum) has been harvested intensively for use in jewelry, and its distribution is currently smaller than its historical size throughout the Mediterranean Sea. To assess whether establishment of marine reserves is associated with a change in the size and number of red coral colonies that historically were not harvested sustainably, we analyzed temporal changes in mean colony diameter and density from 1992 to 2005 within red coral populations at different study sites in the Medes Islands Marine Reserve (established in 1992) and in adjacent unprotected areas. Moreover, we compared colony size in the Medes Islands Marine Reserve, where recreational diving is allowed and poaching has been observed after reserve establishment, with colony size in three other marine protected areas (Banyuls, Carry-le-Rouet, and Scandola) with the enforced prohibition of fishing and diving. At the end of the study, the size of red coral colonies at all sampling sites in the Medes Islands was significantly smaller than predicted by growth models and smaller than those in marine protected areas without fishing and diving. The annual number of recreational dives and the percent change in the basal diameter of red coral colonies were negatively correlated, which suggests that abrasion by divers may increase the mortality rates of the largest red coral colonies within this reserve . Our study is the first quantitative assessment of a poaching event, which was detected during our monitoring in 2002, inside the marine reserve. Poaching was associated with a loss of approximately 60% of the biomass of red coral colonies.     

Fishing the line near marine reserves in single and multispecies fisheries.

Throughout the world "fishing the line" is a frequent harvesting tactic in communities where no-take marine reserves are designated. This practice of concentrating fishing effort at the boundary of a marine reserve is predicated upon the principle of spillover, the net export of stock from the marine reserve to the surrounding unprotected waters. We explore the consequences and optimality of fishing the line using a spatially explicit theoretical model. We show that fishing the line: (1) is part of the optimal effort distribution near no-take marine reserves with mobile species regardless of the cooperation level among harvesters; (2) has a significant impact on the spatial patterns of catch per unit effort (CPUE) and fish density both within and outside of the reserve; and (3) can enhance total population size and catch simultaneously under a limited set of conditions for overexploited populations. Additionally, we explore the consequences of basing the spatial distribution of fishing effort for a multispecies fishery upon the optimality of the most mobile species that exhibits the greatest spillover. Our results show that the intensity of effort allocated to fishing the line should instead be based upon more intermediate rates of mobility within the targeted community. We conclude with a comparison between model predictions and empirical findings from a density gradient study of two important game fish in the vicinity of a no-take marine-life refuge on Santa Catalina Island, California (USA). These results reveal the need for empirical studies to account for harvester behavior and suggest that the implications of spatial discontinuities such as fishing the line should be incorporated into marine-reserve design.     

Collaborative assessment of California spiny lobster population and fishery responses to a marine reserve network

Assessments of the conservation and fisheries effects of marine reserves typically focus on single reserves where sampling occurs over narrow spatiotemporal scales. A strategy for broadening the collection and interpretation of data is collaborative fisheries research (CFR). Here we report results of a CFR program formed in part to test whether reserves at the Santa Barbara Channel Islands, USA, influenced lobster size and trap yield, and whether abundance changes in reserves led to spillover that influenced trap yield and effort distribution near reserve borders. Industry training of scientists allowed us to sample reserves with fishery relevant metrics that we compared with pre-reserve fishing records, a concurrent port sampling program, fishery effort patterns, the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of fishermen, and fishery-independent visual surveys of lobster abundance. After six years of reserve protection, there was a four- to eightfold increase in trap yield, a 5-10% increase in the mean size (carapace length) of legal sized lobsters, and larger size structure of lobsters trapped inside vs. outside of three replicate reserves. Patterns in trap data were corroborated by visual scuba surveys that indicated a four- to sixfold increase in lobster density inside reserves. Population increases within reserves did not lead to increased trap yields or effort concentrations (fishing the line) immediately outside reserve borders. The absence of these catch and effort trends, which are indicative of spillover, may be due to moderate total mortality (Z = 0.59 for legal sized lobsters outside reserves), which was estimated from analysis of growth and length frequency data collected as part of our CFR program. Spillover at the Channel Islands reserves may be occurring but at levels that are insufficient to influence the fishery dynamics that we measured. Future increases in fishing effort (outside reserves) and lobster biomass (inside reserves) are likely and may lead to increased spillover, and CFR provides an ideal platform for continued assessment of fishery-reserve interactions.     

Temperate marine reserves enhance targeted but not untargeted fishes in multiple no-take MPAs.

Although many papers report the effects of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs or reserves), scientifically rigorous empirical studies are rare, particularly for temperate reef fishes. We evaluated the responses of fish populations to protection from fishing in reserves by comparing densities and sizes inside and outside of five no-take reserves in southern California, USA. Our results are robust because we compared responses across multiple rocky-reef reserves in two different years and controlled for possible site differences by (a) ensuring that habitat characteristics were the same inside and outside reserves, and (b) sampling species that are not targeted, which would not be expected to have a direct response to fishing. We compared fish density and size and calculated biomass and egg production across all five sites. Fishes targeted by recreational and/or commercial fisheries consistently exhibited increases in mean density (150%), size (30%), biomass (440%), and egg production (730%) inside reserves. Reserve effects were greatest for legal-sized targeted fishes: significantly greater densities were found exclusively inside reserves for targeted species (580%), the largest size classes existed only inside reserves, and mean biomass was 1000% higher. These responses were unlikely to have been caused by habitat differences because there were no significant differences in habitat characteristics between reserve and control locations. Densities of non-targeted species did not differ between reserve and non-reserve locations, further supporting the conclusions that differences in targeted species between reserve and control locations were due to harvesting rather than site-specific effects. Although MPAs cannot replace traditional fisheries management, the concentration of increased biomass and egg production is a unique MPA benefit that serves both reserves and fisheries. Scientifically rigorous studies that include multiple reserves, such as this study, are needed to inform management and policy decisions.     

A trophic cascade triggers collapse of a salt-marsh ecosystem with intensive recreational fishing

Overexploitation of predators has been linked to the collapse of a growing number of shallow-water marine ecosystems. However, salt-marsh ecosystems are often viewed and managed as systems controlled by physical processes, despite recent evidence for herbivore-driven die-off of marsh vegetation. Here we use field observations, experiments, and historical records at 14 sites to examine whether the recently reported die-off of northwestern Atlantic salt marshes is associated with the cascading effects of predator dynamics and intensive recreational fishing activity. We found that the localized depletion of top predators at sites accessible to recreational anglers has triggered the proliferation of herbivorous crabs, which in turn results in runaway consumption of marsh vegetation. This suggests that overfishing may be a general mechanism underlying the consumer-driven die-off of salt marshes spreading throughout the western Atlantic. Our findings support the emerging realization that consumers play a dominant role in regulating marine plant communities and can lead to ecosystem collapse when their impacts are amplified by human activities, including recreational fishing.     

Striking a Balance between Biodiversity Conservation and Socioeconomic Viability in the Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: The establishment of marine protected areas is often viewed as a conflict between conservation and fishing. We considered consumptive and nonconsumptive interests of multiple stakeholders (i.e., fishers, scuba divers, conservationists, managers, scientists) in the systematic design of a network of marine protected areas along California's central coast in the context of the Marine Life Protection Act Initiative. With advice from managers, administrators, and scientists, a representative group of stakeholders defined biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic goals that accommodated social needs and conserved marine ecosystems, consistent with legal requirements. To satisfy biodiversity goals, we targeted 11 marine habitats across 5 depth zones, areas of high species diversity, and areas containing species of special status. We minimized adverse socioeconomic impacts by minimizing negative effects on fishers. We included fine‐scale fishing data from the recreational and commercial fishing sectors across 24 fisheries. Protected areas designed with consideration of commercial and recreational fisheries reduced potential impact to the fisheries approximately 21% more than protected areas designed without consideration of fishing effort and resulted in a small increase in the total area protected (approximately 3.4%). We incorporated confidential fishing data without revealing the identity of specific fisheries or individual fishing grounds. We sited a portion of the protected areas near land parks, marine laboratories, and scientific monitoring sites to address nonconsumptive socioeconomic goals. Our results show that a stakeholder‐driven design process can use systematic conservation‐planning methods to successfully produce options for network design that satisfy multiple conservation and socioeconomic objectives. Marine protected areas that incorporate multiple stakeholder interests without compromising biodiversity conservation goals are more likely to protect marine ecosystems.     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

Incorporation of Recreational Fishing Effort into Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  Theoretical models of marine protected areas (MPAs) that explore benefits to fisheries or biodiversity conservation often assume a dynamic pool of fishing effort. For instance, effort is homogenously distributed over areas from which subsets of reserves are chosen. I tested this and other model assumptions with a case study of the multiple-use Jervis Bay Marine Park. Prior to zoning of the park I conducted 166 surveys of the park's recreational fisheries, plotting the location of 16,009 anglers. I converted these plots into diagrams of fishing effort and analyzed correlates between fishing and habitat and the effect of two reserve designs—the draft and final zoning plans of the park—on the 15 fisheries observed. Fisheries were strongly correlated with particular habitats and had negatively skewed and often bimodal spatial distribution. The second mode of intensely fished habitat could be 6 SD greater than the fishery's mean allocation of effort by area. In the draft-zoning plan, sanctuary zone (no-take) area and potential subduction of fishing effort were similar. In the final plan, which was altered in response to public comment, the area of sanctuary zone increased, and the impact on fishing effort decreased. In only one case was a fishery's most intensely targeted location closed to fishing. Because of the discriminating manner with which fishers target habitats, if simple percentage targets are used for planning, sanctuary location can be adjusted to avoid existing fishing effort. According to modeled outcomes, the implication of this may be diminished reserve effectiveness. To address this, reserve area should be implicitly linked to subducted fishing effort when promoting or modeling MPAs.     

Potential of Marine Reserves to Cause Community-Wide Changes beyond Their Boundaries

Abstract:  Fishing and other human activities can alter the abundances, size structure, and behavior of species playing key roles in shaping marine communities (e.g., keystone predators), which may in turn cause ecosystem shifts. Despite extensive evidence that cascading trophic interactions can underlie community-wide recovery inside no-take marine reserves by protecting high-level predators, the spatial extent of these effects into adjacent fished areas is unknown. I examined the potential for community-wide changes (i.e., the transition from overgrazed coralline barrens to macroalgal beds) in temperate rocky reefs within and around a no-take marine reserve. For this purpose I assessed distribution patterns of predatory fishes, sea urchins, and barrens across the reserve boundaries. Predatory fishes were significantly more abundant within the reserve than in adjacent locations, with moderate spillover across the reserve edges. In contrast, community-wide changes of benthic assemblages were apparent well beyond the reserve boundaries, which is consistent with temporary movements of predatory fishes (e.g., foraging migration) from the reserve to surrounding areas. My results suggest that no-take marine reserves can promote community-wide changes beyond their boundaries.     

Effects of sex change on the implications of marine reserves for fisheries

Marine reserves have become widely used in biodiversity conservation and are increasingly proposed as fisheries management tools. Previous modeling studies have found that reserves may increase or decrease yields, depending on local environmental conditions and on the specific life-history traits of the fishery species. Sex-changing (female-to-male) fish are targets of some of the most important commercial and recreational fisheries in the world. The potential for disproportionate removal of the larger, older sex of such species requires new theory to facilitate our understanding of how reserves will affect the yields of surrounding fisheries, relative to fishes with separate sexes. We investigated this question by modeling the effects of marine reserves on a non-sex-changing and a sex-changing population. We used demographic parameter estimates for the common coral trout as a baseline, and we conducted extensive sensitivity analyses to determine how sustainable yields of sex-changing species are likely to be affected by reserves across a broad range of life-history parameters. Our findings indicate that fisheries for sex-changing species are unlikely to receive the same yield-enhancing benefit that non-sex-changing fisheries enjoy from marine reserves, and that often reserves tend to reduce sustainable yields for a given overall population size. Specifically, the increased egg production and high fertilization success within reserves is more than offset by the reduced egg production and fertilization success in the fished areas, relative to a system in which fishing mortality is distributed more evenly over the entire system. A key reason for this appears to be that fertilization success is reduced, on average, when males are unevenly distributed among subpopulations, as is the case when reserves are present. These findings suggests that, for sex-changing populations, reserves are more suited to rebuilding overfished populations and sustaining fishery viability, rather than enhancing fishery yields. These results are robust over a range of sex-change regimes, stock-recruitment relationships, adult mortality rates, individual growth strategies, and fertilization-success functions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the different contributions of males and females to population growth and fishery yields when evaluating the efficacy of marine reserves for enhancement of fished species.     

When are no-take zones an economically optimal fishery management strategy?

Discussions on the use of marine reserves (no-take zones) and, more generally, spatial management of fisheries are, for the most part, devoid of analyses that consider the ecological and economic effects simultaneously. To fill this gap, we develop a two-patch ecological-economic model to investigate the effects of spatial management on fishery profits. Because the fishery effects of spatial management depend critically on the nature of the ecological connectivity, our model includes both juvenile and adult movement, with density dependence in settlement differentiating the two types of dispersal. Rather than imposing a reserve on our system and measuring its effect on profits, we ask: "When does setting catch levels to maximize system-wide profits imply that a reserve should be created?" Closing areas to fishing is an economically optimal solution when the value derived from spillover from the reserve outweighs the value of fishing in the patch. The condition, while simple to state in summary form, is complex to interpret because it depends on the settlement success of the dispersing organisms, the nature of the costs of the fishing, the economic and ecological heterogeneity of the system, the discount rate, and growth characteristics of the fish population. The condition is more likely to be satisfied when the closed area is a net exporter of biomass and has higher costs of fishing, and for fish populations with density-independent settlement ("adult movement") than with density-dependent settlement ("larval dispersal"). Rather surprisingly, there are circumstances whereby closing low biological productivity areas, and even sometimes low cost areas to fish, can result in greater fishing profits than when both areas are open to fishing.     

Sensitivity of Marine-Reserve Design to the Spatial Resolution of Socioeconomic Data

Abstract:  Socioeconomic considerations should have an important place in reserve design. Systematic reserve-selection tools allow simultaneous optimization for ecological objectives while minimizing costs but are seldom used to incorporate socioeconomic costs in the reserve-design process. The sensitivity of this process to biodiversity data resolution has been studied widely but the issue of socioeconomic data resolution has not previously been considered. We therefore designed marine reserves for biodiversity conservation with the constraint of minimizing commercial fishing revenue losses and investigated how economic data resolution affected the results. Incorporating coarse-resolution economic data from official statistics generated reserves that were only marginally less costly to the fishery than those designed with no attempt to minimize economic impacts. An intensive survey yielded fine-resolution data that, when incorporated in the design process, substantially reduced predicted fishery losses. Such an approach could help minimize fisher displacement because the least profitable grounds are selected for the reserve. Other work has shown that low-resolution biodiversity data can lead to underestimation of the conservation value of some sites, and a risk of overlooking the most valuable areas, and we have similarly shown that low-resolution economic data can cause underestimation of the profitability of some sites and a risk of inadvertently including these in the reserve. Detailed socioeconomic data are therefore an essential input for the design of cost-effective reserve networks.     

Catalyzing sustainable fisheries management through behavior change interventions

Small-scale fisheries are an important livelihood and primary protein source for coastal communities in many of the poorest regions in the world, yet many are overfished and thus require effective and scalable management solutions. Positive ecological and socioeconomic responses to management typically lag behind immediate costs borne by fishers from fishing pressure reductions necessary for fisheries recovery. These short-term costs challenge the long-term success of these interventions. However, social marketing may increase perceptions of management benefits before ecological and socioeconomic benefits are fully realized, driving new social norms and ultimately long-term sustainable behavior change. By conducting underwater visual surveys to quantify ecological conditions and by conducting household surveys with community members to quantify their perceptions of management support and socioeconomic conditions, we assessed the impact of a standardized small-scale fisheries management intervention that was implemented across 41 sites in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The intervention combines TURF reserves (community-based territorial use rights for fishing coupled with no-take marine reserves) with locally tailored social-marketing behavior change campaigns. Leveraging data across 22 indicators and 4 survey types, along with data from 3 control sites, we found that ecological and socioeconomic impacts varied and that communities supported the intervention and were already changing their fishing practices. These results suggest that communities were developing new social norms and fishing more sustainably before long-term ecological and socioeconomic benefits of fisheries management materialized.     

Poaching, enforcement, and the efficacy of marine reserves.

Marine reserves are promoted as an effective supplement to traditional fishery management techniques of harvest quotas and effort limitation. However, quantitative fishery models have ignored the impact of noncompliance (poaching). Here we link a model of a harvested fish population to a game-theoretic representation of fisherman behavior to quantify the effect of poaching on fishery yield and the enforcement effort required to maintain any desired level of reserve effectiveness. Although higher fish densities inside reserves will typically entice fishermen to poach, we show that the initial investment in enforcement efforts provides the greatest return on maintaining the benefits of the reserve to the fishery. Furthermore, we find that poaching eliminates the positive effect of fish dispersal on yield that is predicted by traditional models that ignore fisherman behavior. Our results broaden a fundamental insight from previous models of marine reserves, the effective equivalence of the harvest quota and reserve fraction, to the more realistic scenario in which fishermen attempt to maximize their economic payoffs.     

Marine reserves,fisheries ban,and 20 years of positive change in a coral reef ecosystem

By 2004, Belize was exhibiting classic fishing down of the food web. Groupers (Serranidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) were scarce and fisheries turned to parrotfishes (Scarinae), leading to a 41% decline in their biomass. Several policies were enacted in 2009–2010, including a moratorium on fishing parrotfish and a new marine park with no-take areas. Using a 20-year time series on reef fish and benthos, we evaluated the impact of these policies approximately 10 years after their implementation. Establishment of the Southwater Caye Marine Reserve led to a recovery of snapper at 2 out of 3 sites, but there was no evidence of recovery outside the reserve. Snapper populations in an older reserve continued to increase, implying that at least 9 years is required for their recovery. Despite concerns over the feasibility of banning parrotfish harvest once it has become a dominant fin fishery, parrotfishes returned and exceeded biomass levels prior to the fishery. The majority of these changes involved an increase in parrotfish density; species composition and adult body size generally exhibited little change. Recovery occurred equally well in reserves and areas open to other forms of fishing, implying strong compliance. Temporal trends in parrotfish grazing intensity were strongly negatively associated with the cover of macroalgae, which by 2018 had fallen to the lowest levels observed since measurements began in 1998. Coral populations remained resilient and continued to exhibit periods of net recovery after disturbance. We found that a moratorium on parrotfish harvesting is feasible and appears to help constrain macroalgae, which can otherwise impede coral resilience.     

Catastrophe management and inter-reserve distance for marine reserve networks

We consider the optimal spacing between marine reserves for maximising the viability of a species occupying a reserve network. The closer the networks are placed together, the higher the probability of colonisation of an empty reserve by an occupied reserve, thus increasing population viability. However, the closer the networks are placed together, the higher the probability that a catastrophe will cause extinction of the species in both reserves, thus decreasing population viability. Using a simple discrete-time Markov chain model for the presence or absence of the species in each reserve we determine the distance between the two reserves which provides the optimal trade-off between these processes, resulting in maximum viability of the species.     

Estimating the status of nearshore rockfish (Sebastes spp.) populations with length frequency data.

Ecologists often point to excessive truncation of a population's size-structure as a deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect of this truncation on population persistence is seldom quantified. While persistence of marine populations requires maintenance of a sufficient level of lifetime reproduction, fishing reduces lifetime reproduction by increasing the total mortality rate, preventing individuals from growing old, large, and highly fecund. We employ a new method of estimating changes in lifetime egg production (LEP) using two samples of the size structure, one in the past and one current, to assess persistence of five species of nearshore rockfish (Sebastes spp.) in California and Oregon, U.S.A. Using length frequency data from catch in the recreational fishery, we estimate that since 1980, four of the five rockfish species considered have experienced declines in LEP to levels that suggest that persistence is impaired. When changes in LEP were estimated for subsets of the data corresponding to neighboring geographical regions, differences in LEP levels were apparent in the neighboring regions, implying that the effects of fishing mortality are not evenly distributed over space. We conclude by discussing the use of this estimation approach to assess the status of other species in data-poor situations.     

Dynamic catch trends in the history of recreational spearfishing in Australia

The sustained decline in marine fisheries worldwide underscores the need to understand and monitor fisheries trends and fisher behavior. Recreational fisheries are unique in that they are not subject to the typical drivers that influence commercial and artisanal fisheries (e.g., markets or food security). Nevertheless, although exposed to a different set of drivers (i.e., interest or relaxation), recreational fisheries can contribute to fishery declines. Recreational fisheries are also difficult to assess due to an absence of past monitoring and traditional fisheries data. Therefore, we utilized a nontraditional data source (a chronology of spearfishing publications) to document historical trends in recreational spearfishing in Australia between 1952 and 2009. We extracted data on reported fish captures, advertising, and spearfisher commentary and used regression models and ordination analyses to assess historical change. The proportion of coastal fish captures reported declined approximately 80%, whereas the proportion of coral reef and pelagic fish reports increased 1750% and 560%, respectively. Catch composition shifted markedly from coastal temperate or subtropical fishes during the 1950s to 1970s to coral reef and pelagic species in the 1990s to 2000s. Advertising data and commentary by spearfishers indicated that pelagic fish species became desired targets. The mean weight of trophy coral reef fishes also declined significantly over the study period (from approximately 30–8 kg). Recreational fishing presents a highly dynamic social–ecological interface and a challenge for management. Our results emphasize the need for regulatory agencies to work closely with recreational fishing bodies to observe fisher behavior, detect shifts in target species or fishing intensity, and adapt regulatory measures. Tendencias Dinámicas de Captura en la Historia de la Pesca Recreativa con Arpón en Australia     

Effects of seascape connectivity on reserve performance along exposed coastlines

Seascape connectivity (landscape connectivity in the sea) can modify reserve performance in low-energy marine ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass), but it is not clear whether similar spatial linkages also shape reserve effectiveness on high-energy, exposed coastlines. We used the surf zones of ocean beaches in eastern Australia as a model system to test how seascape connectivity and reserve attributes combine to shape conservation outcomes. Spatial patterns in fish assemblages were measured using baited remote underwater video stations in 12 marine reserves and 15 fished beaches across 2000 km of exposed coastline. Reserve performance was shaped by both the characteristics of reserves and the spatial properties of the coastal seascapes in which reserves were embedded. Number of fish species and abundance of harvested fishes were highest in surf-zone reserves that encompassed >1.5 km of the surf zone; were located < 100 m to rocky headlands; and included pocket beaches in a heterogeneous seascape. Conservation outcomes for exposed coastlines may, therefore, be enhanced by prioritizing sufficiently large areas of seascapes that are strongly linked to abutting complementary habitats. Our findings have broader implications for coastal conservation planning. Empirical data to describe how the ecological features of high-energy shorelines influence conservation outcomes are lacking, and we suggest that seascape connectivity may have similar ecological effects on reserve performance on both sheltered and exposed coastlines.     

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact.