Development and Comparison of Multiple Regression Models to Predict Bankfull Channel Dimensions for Use in Hydrologic Models

Channel dimensions are important input variables for many hydrologic models. As measurements of channel geometry are not available in most watersheds, they are often predicted using bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships. This study aims at improving existing equations that relate bankfull width, depth, and cross‐sectional area to drainage area (DA) without limiting their use to well‐gauged watersheds. We included seven additional variables in the equations that can be derived from data that are generally required by hydrologic models anyway and conducted several multiple regression analyses to identify the ideal combination of additional variables for nationwide and regional models for each Physiographic Division of the United States (U.S.). Results indicate that including the additional variables in the regression equations generally improves predictions considerably. The selection of relevant variables varies by Physiographic Division, but average annual precipitation (PCP) and temperature (TMP) were generally found to improve the models the most. Therefore, we recommend using regression equations with three independent variables (DA, PCP, and TMP) to predict bankfull channel dimensions for hydrologic models. Furthermore, we recommend using the regional equations for watersheds within regions from which data were used for model development, whereas in all other parts of the U.S. and the rest of the world, the nationwide equations should be given preference.     

A PARAMETRIC MODEL CALIBRATED WITH A PHYSICALLY BASED MODEL FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION FROM UNGAGED STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in the numerical solution of the governing partial differential equations for overland and channel flow should make possible physically based models which predict runoff from ungaged streams. However, these models, which represent the watershed by sets of intersecting planes, are complex and require much computer time. Parametric models exist that have the advantage of being relatively simple, and once calibrated are inexpensive to use and require limited data input. In this study, a procedure was developed for calibrating a parametric model against a physically based model, utilizing base areas of one acre and one square mile, with the expectation that base areas can be combined to model real watersheds. Simulation experiments with the physically based model showed that, for the one-acre base area, the dominant parameter (cell storage ratio, K) related to the slope and friction of the planes, whereas for one square-mile areas, the dominant parameters (K plus a lag factor, L) relate to channel properties. These parameters decreased exponentially as rainfall intensity increased.     

ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF NRCS MODELS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: In the last 30 years, the National Resource Conservation Service's TR‐55 and TR‐20 models have seen a dramatic increase in use for stormwater management purposes. This paper reviews some of the data that were originally used to develop these models and tests how well the models estimate annual series peak runoff rates for the same watersheds using longer historical data record lengths. The paper also explores differences between TR‐55 and TR‐20 peak runoff rate estimates and time of concentration methods. It was found that of the 37 watersheds tested, 25 were either over‐ or under‐predicting the actual historical watershed runoff rates by more than 30 percent. The results of this study indicate that these NRCS models should not be used to model small wooded watersheds less than 20 acres. This would be especially true if the watershed consisted of an area without a clearly defined outlet channel. This study also supports the need for regulators to allow educated hydrologists to alter pre‐packaged model parameters or results more easily than is currently permitted.     

HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY RELATIONSHIPS FOR URBAN STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: Hydraulic geometry relationships, or regional curves, relate bankfull stream channel dimensions to watershed drainage area. Hydraulic geometry relationships for streams throughout North Carolina vary with hydrology, soils, and extent of development within a watershed. An urban curve that is the focus of this study shows the bankfull features of streams in urban and suburban watersheds throughout the North Carolina Piedmont. Seventeen streams were surveyed in watersheds that had greater than 10 percent impervious cover. The watersheds had been developed long enough for the streams to redevelop bankfull features, and they had no major impoundments. The drainage areas for the streams ranged from 0.4 to 110.3 square kilometers. Cross‐sectional and longitudinal surveys were conducted to determine the channel dimension, pattern, and profile of each stream and power functions were fitted to the data. Comparisons were made with regional curves developed previously for the rural Piedmont, and enlargement ratios were produced. These enlargement ratios indicated a substantial increase in the hydraulic geometry for the urban streams in comparison to the rural streams. A comparison of flood frequency indicates a slight decrease in the bankfull discharge return interval for the gaged urban streams as compared to the gaged rural streams. The study data were collected by North Carolina State University (NCSU), the University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNC), and Charlotte Storm Water Services. Urban regional curves are useful tools for applying natural channel design in developed watersheds. They do not, however, replace the need for field calibration and verification of bankfull stream channel dimensions.     

CHANGING NEAR‐STREAM LAND USE AND RWER CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY IN THE VENEZUELAN ANDES1

ABSTRACT: The shape of a river channel is linked to surrounding land use through interacting hydrologic and geologic processes. This study analyzes the relationship between the change in near‐stream land use and the shape of the adjacent river channel over time. Three watersheds in the foothills of the Venezuelan Andes that have experienced differing degrees of development were studied to determine river channel width, sinuosity, and position relative to surrounding land use. Change in land use over time was obtained from multiple‐date aerial photographs (1946 and 1980) referenced to 1996 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery, and verified by field inspection. Measurements of land‐use type and amount and river channel morphology from the two dates were made using geographic information system (GIS) methods. The three watersheds differed in the extent of deforestation, the location of remaining forested land, and how much land‐use change had already occurred by 1946. Change in river channel morphology was greatest at the most deforested sites. Valley shape and channel constraint also had a discernible effect on change in channel morphology. This study introduces a method for analyzing change in coupled terrestrial‐aquatic systems based on multiple‐date, remotely sensed data and GIS analysis of spatial properties. The results document human impacts on river channels through a comparison of multiple watersheds over a 35‐year time interval.     

ADAPTATION OF FLOOD PEAKS AND DESIGN HYDROGRAPHS FROM GAGED TO NEARBY UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Equations were developed to transform peak flows and to adapt design hydrographs and unit hydrographs from gaged watersheds to ungaged watersheds with similar hydrologic characteristics. Dimensional analysis was used to develop adjustment equations for peak flow and time base, and these equations were reinforced with results from regional flood frequency research. The authors believe that the use of these transformation equations should yield more reliable flood peak values and hydrogrphs than the common use of empirical flood estimating curves or equations.     

BEDROCK CONTROLS ON STREAM CHANNEL ENLARGEMENT WITH URBANIZATION,NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS1

Loss due to channel erosion in the Dallas, Texas, area is estimated to approach one-half million dollars in the last several years. Hydrogeomorphic analysis of natural and urban chalk and shale watersheds was performed in the central Texas area on watersheds ranging in size from 0.5 to 10 square miles in an effort to more adequately predict channel enlargement due to urbanization. Chalk watersheds were found to have greater drainage density, greater channel slope, lower sinuosity, and greater discharge per unit area than similar sized shale watersheds under natural conditions. With subsequent urbanization of the watersheds, chalk channel enlargement was from 12 to 67 percent greater than shale channel enlargement for similar sized watersheds. Greater enlargement in chalk channels is attributed to greater channel velocities and unit tractive force. Vegetation seems to play a significant role in influencing channel adjustments to the new flow regimes brought on by urbanization. Channel response to urbanization is documented and specific nonstructural guidelines are proposed which could reduce structural loss along urban stream channels.     

Influences on Wood Load in Mountain Streams of the Bighorn National Forest,Wyoming, USA

We documented valley and channel characteristics and wood loads in 19 reaches of forested headwater mountain streams in the Bighorn National Forest of northern Wyoming. Ten of these reaches were in the Upper Tongue River watershed, which has a history of management including timber harvest, tie floating, and road construction. Nine reaches were in the North Rock Creek watershed, which has little history of management activities. We used these data to test hypotheses that (i) valley geometry correlates with wood load, (ii) stream gradient correlates with wood load, and (iii) wood loads are significantly lower in managed watersheds than in otherwise similar unmanaged watersheds. Statistical analyses of the data support the first and third hypotheses. Stream reaches with steeper valley side slopes tend to have higher wood loads, and reaches in managed watersheds tend to have lower wood loads than reaches in unmanaged watersheds. Results do not support the second hypothesis. Shear stress correlated more strongly with wood load than did stream gradient, but statistical models with valley-scale variables had greater explanatory power than statistical models with channel-scale variables. Wood loads in stream reaches within managed watersheds in the Bighorn National Forest tend to be two to three times lower than wood loads in unmanaged watersheds.     

Measuring the Impact of Urbanization on Channel Widths Using Historic Aerial Photographs and Modern Surveys1

Abstract: Land use in a watershed is commonly held to exert a strong influence on trunk channel form and process. Land use changes act over human time‐scales, which are short enough to measure effects on channels directly using historic aerial photographs. We show that high‐resolution topographic surveys for the channels of paired watersheds in the Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, are comparable, but have channel widths that have changed dramatically in the past five decades. The two watersheds, Little Lehigh Creek and Sacony Creek, are similar in most aspects except in their respective amount of urban land use. Aerial photographs of the urbanized Little Lehigh Creek show that a majority of the measured widths (67 of 85) were statistically wider in 1999 than in 1947. In contrast, the measured widths from the agricultural Sacony Creek are more evenly distributed among those that widened (18), narrowed (28), and those that were statistically unchanged (6) from 1946 to 1999. From 1946 to 1999 the only section of Sacony Creek that widened was that reach downstream of the only sizable urban area in the watershed. The current land use in Sacony Creek watershed resembles that of 1946, while the Little Lehigh Creek watershed has more than tripled its urban area. These data, in concert with other recent hydrologic data from the watersheds suggest that the increase in urban area‐generated peak discharges is the mechanism behind the widening that occurred in the Little Lehigh Creek. These wider channels can affect water quality, aquatic habitat, suspended sediment loads, and river esthetics.     

DETERMINING CRITICAL WATER QUALITY CONDITIONS FOR INORGANIC NITROGEN IN DRY,SEMI‐URBANIZED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Traditional approaches to establishing critical water quality conditions, based on statistical analysis of low flow conditions and expressed as a recurrence interval for low flow conditions (e.g., 7Q10), may be inappropriate for drier watersheds. The use of 7Q10 as a standard design flow assumes year‐round flow, but in these watersheds, 7Q10 is zero or very small. In addition, the increasing use of multiple year dynamic water quality models at daily time steps can supercede the use of steady state approaches. Many of these watersheds are also under increasing urbanization pressure, which accentuates the flashiness of runoff and the episodic nature of critical water quality conditions. To illustrate, the conditions in the Santa Clara River, California, are considered. A statistical analysis indicates that higher inorganic nitrogen concentrations correlate strongly with low flow. However, peaks in concentrations can occur during the first storms, particularly where nonpoint source contribution is significant. Critical conditions can thus occur at different flow regimes depending on the relative magnitude of flow and pollutant contributions from various sources. The use of steady state models for these dry semi‐urbanized watersheds based on 7Q10 flows is thus unlikely to accurately simulate the potential for exceeding water quality objectives. Dynamic simulation of water quality is necessary, and as the recent intense storm event sampling data indicate, the models should be formulated to consider even smaller time steps. This places increasing demand on computational resources and datasets to accurately calibrate the models at this temporal resolution.     

POLLUTANT LOADS IN URBAN STORMWATER: REVIEW OF METHODS FOR PLANNING-LEVEL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: A review of methods for planning-level estimates of pollutant loads in urban stormwater focuses on transfer of charac. teristic runoff quality data to unmonitored sites, runoff monitoring, and simulation models. Load estimation by transfer of runoff quality data is the least expensive, but the accuracy of estimates is unknown. Runoff monitoring methods provide best estimates of existing loads, but cannot be used to predict load changes resulting from runoff controls, or other changes of the urban system. Simulation models require extensive calibration for reliable application. Models with optional formulations of pollutant build up, washoff, and transport can be better calibrated and the selection of options should be based on a statistical analysis of calibration data. Calibrated simulation models can be used for evaluation of control alternatives.     

Do Polynomials Adequately Describe the Hypsometry of Monadnock Phase Watersheds?

Hypsometry has been shown to be a useful tool in geomorphic analysis of watersheds with the use of third‐degree polynomial equations to express the hypsometric curve. Despite its usefulness with watersheds in the equilibrium stage, the third‐degree polynomial has been found to be inadequate to describe the hypsometry of Monadnock phase watersheds. Three other equations — a modified third‐degree polynomial with a rational term, a sigmoidal model, and a double exponential — were used to determine hypsometric attributes of 32 Monadnock phase watersheds and compared to the third‐degree polynomial form. The three other equations were found to be better fits for Monadnock phase watersheds than the third‐degree polynomial equation, regardless of which ratio — area or elevation — was plotted as the independent variable. Due to the occasional failure of each functional form to give logical values for hypsometric attributes, the importance of using more than one form equation is discussed. After determining the best‐fit equation for each watershed, the usefulness of hypsometric attributes is discussed in relation to erosion processes within Monadnock phase watersheds.     

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANCE AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS FOR RUNOFF FROM SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Significant parameters for predicting thunderstorm runoff from small semiarid watersheds are determined using data from the Walnut Gulch watershed in southern Arizona. Based on these data, thunderstorm rainfall is dominant over watershed parameters for predicting runoff from multiple linear regression equations. In some cases antecedent moisture added significantly to the models. A technique is developed for estimating precision of predicted values from multiple linear regression equations. The technique involves matrix methods in estimating the variance of mean predicted values from a regression equation. The estimated variance of the mean predicted value is then used to estimate the variance of an individual predicted value. A computer program is developed to implement these matrix methods and to form confidence limits on predicted values based on both a normality assumption and the Chebyshev inequality.     

VERIFICATION AND APPLICATION OF REGIONAL EQUATIONS FOR THE STORAGE FUNCTION RUNOFF MODEL1

The storage function model is a nonlinear rainfall-runoff model that has been developed for and applied to flood runoff analysis in Japan. This paper extends the model applicability by developing practical equations for estimating model parameters which are appropriate on a regional basis, i.e., so-called regional equations. Previously, the parameters were computed from historical data for a specific basin or from relationships that do not account for land use and topography. To develop the regionalized equations, model parameters were identified for 91 flood events from 22 watersheds in Japan by applying a mathematical optimization technique. Results from 39 of these events were statistically compared and regional relationships were determined as a function of land use, basin area and rainfall intensity. The utility of the estimated equations were tested by computing runoff hydrographs for lumped basins. The estimated parameters were also applied in a distributed watershed model formulation. Both applications showed acceptable results that validate the use of the regionalized relationships.     

Effect of the Spatial Variability of Land Use,Soil Type,and Precipitation on Streamflows in Small Watersheds1

Abstract: The spatial variability of the data used in models includes the spatial discretization of the system into subsystems, the data resolution, and the spatial distribution of hydrologic features and parameters. In this study, we investigate the effect of the spatial distribution of land use, soil type, and precipitation on the simulated flows at the outlet of “small watersheds” (i.e., watersheds with times of concentration shorter than the model computational time step). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used to estimate runoff and hydrographs. Different representations of the spatial data resulted in comparable model performances and even the use of uniform land use and soil type maps, instead of spatially distributed, was not noticeable. It was found that, although spatially distributed data help understand the characteristics of the watershed and provide valuable information to distributed hydrologic models, when the watershed is small, realistic representations of the spatial data do not necessarily improve the model performance. The results obtained from this study provide insights on the relevance of taking into account the spatial distribution of land use, soil type, and precipitation when modeling small watersheds.     

FOREST HYDROLOGY ISSUES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: A CONSULTANT'S VIEWPOINT1

ABSTRACT: Forest hydrology should be a mature science with routine use of hydrological procedures to evaluate the effect of past, current and proposed harvesting practices on water resources. It is not. However, water users are pressuring forest managers to exercise their role in managing forested watersheds for water supply. Most forest managers are poorly equipped to carry out this role. Forestry schools need to ensure that their graduates, whether employed in forest management positions or as specialists in watershed management, understand that all forestry operations may affect instream or downstream water users. Specialists in forest hydrology should be fully aware of the following: (1) climate and watershed characteristics influence streamflow in separate ways; (2) forestry practices produce changes in water yield and quality, and that only these changes need to be evaluated to estimate their effects; (3) watershed storage is a critical factor in evaluating the effects of harvesting on streamflow; and (4) the effect of harvest on one watershed cannot be extrapolated to another without consideration of the processes affected. Research is needed to assist watershed managers in applying models to watersheds for which climate and streamflow data are insufficient. Research is also needed to incorporate climate, streamflow and other data for hydrological models into geographic information systems. Joint research projects are needed to develop physical relationships between stream channel characteristics of importance to fisheries biologists and streamflow characteristics affected by forest harvest.     

STATISTICAL LOW FLOW ESTIMATION USING GIS ANALYSIS IN HUMID MONTANE REGIONS IN PUERTO RICO1

ABSTRACT: Statistical analysis of watershed parameters derived using a Geographical Information system (GIS) was done to develop equations for estimating the 7d–10yr, 30d–10yr, and 7d–2yr low flow for watersheds in humid montane regions of Puerto Rico. Digital elevation models and land use, geology, soils, and stream network coverages were used to evaluate 21 geomorphic, 10 stream channel, 9 relief, 7 geology, 4 climate, and 2 soil parameters for each watershed. To assess which parameters should be used for further investigation, a correlation analysis was used to determine the independence and collinearity among these parameters and their relationship with low flows. Multiple regression analyses using the selected parameters were then performed to develop the statistical models of low flows. The final models were selected in the basis of the Mallow Cp statistic, the adjusted R², the Press statistic, the degree of collinearity, and an analysis of the residuals. In the final models, drainage density, the ratio of length of tributaries to the length of the main channel, the percent of drainage area with northeast aspect, and the average weighted slope of the drainage were the most significant parameters. The final models had adjusted standard errors of 58.7 percent, 59.2 percent, and 48.6 percent for the 7d–10yr, 30d–10yr, and 7d–2yr low flows respectively. For comparison, the best model based on watershed parameters that can be easily measured without a GIS had an adjusted standard error of 82.8 percent.     

Effects of stream channelization on exports of nitrogen and phosphorus from north Carolina coastal plain watersheds

Nitrogen and phosphorus exports from channelizedstream watersheds were elevated over those from nearby natural swamp-stream watersheds. Nitrate exports were significantly greater from channelized-stream watersheds, and higher exports were attributed to faster groundwater drawdown, continual streamflow, and transformation of former floodplain to croplands following channelization. Exports of total organic nitrogen and total nitrogen were also significantly greater from channelized-stream watersheds. Differences in the exports of ammonium, filterable reactive phosphorus, and filterable unreactive phosphorus between the two watershed types were not detectable. Particulate phosphorus exports were significantly higher from channelized-stream watersheds, presumably because of greater erosion potential of nearby croplands and steep channel banks in the altered watersheds. The presence of nonpoint sources of pollution increased watershed exports of nutrients regardless of stream morphology. Examination of nutrient budgets for a portion of swamp floodplain at the base of one natural-stream watershed revealed that changes in local groundwater hydrology and stream morphology associated with channelization appeared to have greater effect on nutrient exports than simply the loss of bordering forested floodplain.     

Sound Survey Designs Can Facilitate Integrating Stream Monitoring Data Across Multiple Programs1

Abstract: Multiple agencies in the Pacific Northwest monitor the condition of stream networks or their watersheds. Some agencies use a stream “network” perspective to report on the fraction or length of the network that either meets or violates particular criteria. Other agencies use a “watershed” perspective to report on the health or condition of watersheds. The agencies often use the same indicators and measurement protocols for data collection and often conduct monitoring in overlapping geographic regions. In these situations, agencies would like to combine data across different monitoring studies in a statistically sound manner to make regional estimates of condition. Three statistical survey design principles will facilitate combining such studies: (1) a clearly specified statistical target population of interest, including elements that comprise the population, (2) a consistent representation of that target population (such as a digital map of the stream network and watersheds), and (3) rules that incorporate randomization to guide the selection of the sample of sites on which measurements will be made. A case study illustrates the application of these design principles using two agency monitoring programs interested in combining stream channel data for different purposes: one for making network summaries and the other for evaluating watershed condition.     

WATER QUALITY IN AGRICULTURAL,URBAN, AND MIXED LAND USE WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Water quality and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution are important issues in many areas of the world, including the Inner Bluegrass Region of Kentucky where urban development is changing formerly rural watersheds into urban and mixed use watersheds. In watersheds where land use is mixed, the relative contributions of NPS pollution from rural and urban land uses can be difficult to separate. To better understand NPS pollution sources in mixed use watersheds, surface water samples were taken at three sites that varied in land use to examine the effect of land use on water quality. Within the group of three watersheds, one was predominately agriculture (Agricultural), one was predominately urban (Urban), and a third had relatively equal representation of both types of land uses (Mixed). Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity, pH, temperature, and streamflow were measured for one year. Comparisons are made among watersheds for concentration and fluxes of water quality parameters. Nitrate and orthophosphate concentrations were found to be significantly higher in the Agricultural watershed. Total suspended solids, turbidity, temperature, and pH, were found to be generally higher in the Urban and Mixed watersheds. No differences were found for streamflow (per unit area), total phosphorus, and ammonium concentrations among watersheds. Fluxes of orthophosphate were greater in the Agricultural watershed that in the Urban watershed while fluxes of TSS were greater in the Mixed watershed when compared to the Agricultural watershed. Fluxes of nitrate, ammonium, and total phosphorus did not vary among watersheds. It is apparent from the data that Agricultural land uses are generally a greater source of nutrients than the Urban land uses while Urban land uses are generally a greater source of suspended sediment.