COMPUTING THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH WASTELOAD) ALLOCATION MODELING1

ABSTRACT: The risks associated with a traditional wasteload allocation (WLA) analysis were quantified with data from a recent study of the Upper Trinity River (Texas). Risk is define here as the probability of failing to meet an established in-stream water quality standard. The QUAL-TX dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality model was modified to a Monte Carlo framework. Flow augmentation coding was also modified to allow an exact match to be computed between the predicted and an established DO concentration standard, thereby providing an avenue for linking input parameter uncertainty to the assignment of a wasteload permit (allowable mass loading rate). Monte Carlo simulation techniques were employed to propagate input parameter uncertainties, typically encountered during WLA analysis, to the computed effluent five-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand requirements for a single major wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The risk of failing to meet an established in-stream DO criterion may be as high as 96 percent. The uncertainty associated with estimation of the future total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentration for a single tributary was found to have the greatest impact on the determination of allowable WWTP loadings.     

APPLICATION OF CRITICAL PATH METHOD TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT. The task of resource management, in this case water resources, is rapidly becoming more complex, particularly because decision making is often contingent upon various prior activities and sets of data. Comprehensive planning is required in order to prevent misallocation of resources or mismanagement in resource development. Such planning involves five general phases which are applicable to any problem faced by society: (1) problem identification; (2) formulation of alternatives; (3) evaluation of alternatives; (4) implementation; (5) review. There have been many attempts to simplify the planning process and effectively carry out these five phases. The experience of the Alberta Water Resources Division has been that the Critical Path Method is one of the most useful tools available today for planning. It involves two basic steps: (1) preparation of a network diagram which (a) identifies all the activities necessary for the completion of a project, (b) correctly sequences these activities, (c) allocates resources; and (2) mathematical computations for scheduling the activities. In other words, this approach breaks a task down into smaller units or activities for easier organization, scheduling, and performance for eventual completion of the project. This paper will illustrate the effectiveness of the Critical Path Method by discussing its application to actual water resources projects.     

EFFECT OF SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE ON SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODELING IN SELECTED BASINS1

ABSTRACT: The projected increase in the concentration of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to result in a global temperature increase. This paper reports on the probable effects of a temperature increase and changes in transpiration on basin discharge in two different mountain snowmelt regions of the western United States. The hydrological effects of the climate changes are modeled with a relatively simple conceptual, semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. Based on the model results, it may be concluded that increased air temperatures will result in a shift of snowmelt runoff to earlier in the snowmelt season. Furthermore, it is shown that it is very important to include the expected change in climate-related basin conditions resulting from the modeled temperature increase in the runoff simulation. The effect of adapting the model parameters to reflect the changed basin conditions resulted in a further shift of streamflow to April and an even more significant decrease of snowmelt runoff in June and July. If the air temperatures increase by approximately 5°C and precipitation and accumulated snow amounts remain about the same, runoff in April and May, averaged for the two basins, is expected to increase by 185 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The runoff in June and July will decrease by about 60 percent each month. Overall, the total seasonal runoff decreases by about 6 percent. If increased CO₂ concentrations further change basin conditions by reducing transpiration by the maximum amounts reported in the literature, then, combined with the 5°C temperature increase, the April, May, June, and July changes would average +230 percent, +40 percent, ?55 percent, and ?45 percent, respectively. The total seasonal runoff change would be +11 percent.     

OPEN CHANNEL INTERPOLATION OF CROSS SECTIONAL PROPERTIES1

ABSTRACT: This paper confirms the use of interpolated data to refine water surface profiles. Sources of error within these computations are due to truncation error, inaccuracies in geometric data, and improper modeling. Confirmation includes the development of an equation that models the effect of data measurement error on the computed water surface profile. A review of interpolation procedures includes a proposed method based upon geometric properties.     

INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN OPTIMIZATION: MODELING ECONOMIC AND HYDROLOGIC INTERDEPENDENCE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an integrated optimal control model that optimizes economic performance of reservoir management in watersheds in which there are significant economic and hydrologic interdependencies. The model is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Results show that application of this model to New Mexico's Rio Chama basin can increase total system benefits over historical benefits by exploiting complementarities between hydroelectricity production, instream recreation, and downstream lake recreation.     

USE OF FIRST-ORDER UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TO OPTIMIZE SUCCESSFUL STREAM WATER QUALITY SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: A first-order uncertainty technique is developed to quantify the relationship between field data collection and a modeling exercise involving both calibration and subsequent verification. A simple statistic (LTOTAL) is used to quantify the total likelihood (probability) of successfully calibrating and verifying the model. Results from the first-order technique are compared with those from a traditional Monte Carlo simulation approach using a simple Streeter-Phelps dissolved oxygen model. The largest single difference is caused by the filtering or removal of unrealistic outcomes within the Monte Carlo framework. The amount of bias inherent in the first-order approach is also a function of the magnitude of input variability and sampling location. The minimum bias of the first-order technique is approximately 20 percent for a case involving relatively large uncertainties. However the bias is well behaved (consistent) so as to allow for correct decision making regarding the relative efficacy of various sampling strategies. The utility of the first-order technique is demonstrated by linking data collection costs with modeling performance. For a simple and inexpensive project, a wise and informed selection resulted in an LTOTAL value of 86 percent, while an uninformed selection could result in an LTOTAL value of only 55 percent.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT MODELING IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed to determine phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee from watersheds located north of the lake. This framework consists of the land-based model CREAMS-WT, the in-stream transport model QUAL2E, and an interface procedure to format the land-based model output for use by the in-stream model. QUAL2E hydraulics and water quality routines were modified to account for flow routing and phosphorus retention in both wetlands and stream channels. Phosphorus loadings obtained from previous applications of CREAMS-WT were used by QUAL2E, and calibration and verification showed that QUAL2E accurately simulated seasonal and annual phosphorus loadings from a watershed. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated that the accuracy of monthly loadings can be improved by using better estimates of in-stream phosphorus decay rates, ground water phosphorus concentrations, and runoff phosphorus concentrations as input to QUAL2E.     

CENTRIFUGE MODELING OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL SUBSURFACE CONTAMINATION1

ABSTRACT: One-dimensional contaminant transport through a saturated soil is modeled using a 1.2-m radius geotechnical centrifuge. Small-scale physical modeling in the centrifuge is achieved in relatively short time, at stress distributions that are similar to those experienced in the prototype (actual site). A 0.05 mol/l of sodium chloride solution is used as a contaminant and conductivity cells measure the concentration of the contaminant throughout the porous medium. Scaling analysis for centrifuge modeling and 1-g modeling are briefly discussed and it is concluded that centrifuge modeling simulates the effect of molecular diffusion; however, scaling of the effect of mechanical dispersion may be violated in the centrifuge if the interstitial fluid velocity is high. Centrifuge test results show good agreement with the predicted relationship between the coefficient of hydrodynamic dispersion and the Peclet number using column tests. Centrifuge modeling can be used as a complement of numerical modeling although the effect of mechanical dispersion may be overestimated in the former.     

MODELING MULTIPLE-USE IN NATURAL AREAS: PART II - THE SANTEE SWAMP STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The previous paper in this two-part series presented the basic information of a newly developed mathematical model of multiple-use in natural areas. The model is a unified system for the assessment of cases where development is proposed for relatively natural areas. This paper presents the results of an application of the model to a study of the proposed timber harvest in the Great Santec Swamp in South Carolina. This was done in an effort to demonstrate the utility of the model as a planning and assessment tool. Four potential uses of the Swamp were investigated: logging of hardwood saw timber, hunting, fishing, and nature observation. The model system proved to be extremely useful in the evaluation of potential management schemes and in the selection of the most promising or optimal management plan.     

OPTIMIZATION MODELING OF A NEW FACILITY FOR THE CALIFORNIA STATE WATER PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: A non-linear optimization model is applied to the California State Water Project (SWP) and portions of the Central Valley Project (CVP). The model accounts for the major hydrologic, regulatory, and operational features of both projects. The model maximizes long-term SWP yields over a 70-year period, using a quarterly time step. The potential for increased yield associated with a proposed facility improvement is evaluated with the model. The proposed facility is an extension of the Folsom-South Canal, which would allow water to be conveyed from the American River below Folsom Reservoir into New Melones Reservoir on the Stanislaus River or into the California Aqueduct. Model results indicate that extension of the Folsom-South Canal has the potential to increase SWP yields by 13 percent.     

WATER QUALITY SIMULATION AND PUBLIC LAW 92–500 Case Study: Southwestern Illinois1

ABSTRACT: Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 has provided the Southwestern Illinois Metropolitan and Regional Planning Commission (SIMAPC) with a unique opportunity for comprehensive planning of the region's water quality. SIMAPC initiated the 208 study by researching available technology for the analysis of point and nonpoint sources of pollution and establishing criteria by which to judge the various technniques. This led to SIMAPC'S choice of continuous simulation of stream and reservoir water quality as the most appropriate analytical tool for their needs. A continuous simulation model was calibrated and verified on three basins in the SIMPAC region. It was then used to produce load source analysis, pollution event frequency analysis, and pollution event duration analysis for ten pollutants under existing stream conditions and then under alternative future conditions. These results enabled the weighting of pollutant sources, analysis of the effectiveness of control measures, and quantitative analysis of the marginal benefit of each alternative.     

MODELING STUDIES FOR PLANNING: THE GREEN BAY PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: A major contaminant monitoring and modeling study is underway for Green Bay, Lake Michigan. Monitoring programs in support of contaminant modeling of large waterbodies, such as for Green Bay, are expensive and their extent is often limited by budget limitations, laboratory capacity, and logistic constraints. Therefore, it is imperative that available resources be used in the most efficient manner possible. This use, or allocation of resources, may be aided through the application of readily available models in the planning stages of projects. To aid in the planning effort for the Green Bay project, a workshop was held and studies designed to aid in the allocation of resources for a year-long intensive field study. Physical/chemical and food chain models were applied using historical data to aid in project planning by identifying processes having the greatest impact on the predictive capability of mass balance models. Studies were also conducted to estimate errors in computed tributary loadings and in-Bay concentrations and contaminant mass associated with different sampling strategies. The studies contributed to the overall project design, which was a collaborative effort with many participants involved in budgeting, field data collection, analysis, processing of data, quality assurance, data management and modeling activities.     

MODELING THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF A NAVIGATION CHANNEL IN A TIDAL BAY1

ABSTRACT: A circulation and salinity model was used to predict the effects of wind, fresh water inflow, and the construction of a navigation channel on Vermilion Bay, Louisiana. The model numerically solved continuity and motion equations and provided a time history and spatial distribution of tidal depths, flows, velocities, and salinity in two lateral dimensions. The model predicted that high south winds or high fresh water inflow would reduce average bay salinities, as would the construction of a channel through Vermilion Bay. The results suggested the main reason for this behavior is the presence of two bay outlets to the Gulf of Mexico.     

USE OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL IN A BASIN-WIDE WATER ALLOCATION PROCEEDING1

ABSTRACT: The Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation developed a hydrologic model to help analyze the effects of allocating water for consumptive and instream uses in the upper Missouri River basin of Montana. The model, a PC-based FORTRAN program, uses a mass-balance approach to compute monthly streamflows, reservoir operations, hydropower production, and irrigation and municipal water uses throughout the 54,000 square mile basin for a 59-year base period. Simulation results are presented as monthly mean and percentile-exceedence values. The model was run for baseline conditions and six hypothetical water-allocation alternatives. Results were used by staff resource area specialists to assess potential impacts to water quantity and distribution, water rights, water quality, stream channel form, fisheries, wildlife, recreation, hydropower production, and economics. These analyses were presented to the public and the decision-making board in an environmental impact statement (EIS). Though, in many instances, the model did not allow for detailed, site-specific analyses, the model was an important tool and its simulation results formed the hydrologic basis for the EIS.     

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF GULF COAST ESTUARIES1

The environmental pollution problems prevalent in gulf coast estuaries are a cause of great concern to those in water quality management. This paper outlines the dominant characteristics which affect the properties of these estuaries including geography, tide and current effects, wind effects, salinity and density regime, nature and level of waste discharge, low inflow levels, dredging effects and present quality levels. Two basic levels of analytical modeling which are useful in water quality management are presented. The first is a relatively crude completely mixed estuarine model which permits economical evaluation of varying parameters. The second is a very general steady state model which permits analysis of stratified systems. The ESTPOL computer language designed to simplify the use of the steady state model is described. The practical use of the analytical models as management tools for the solution of Texas Estuarine quality problems is demonstrated.     

USING A GIS FOR ESTIMATING INPUT PARAMETERS IN URBAN STORMWATER QUALITY MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are being used increasingly as a method of preparing, analyzing, and displaying data for watershed analysis and modeling. Although GIS technology is a powerful tool for integrating and analyzing watershed characteristics, the initial preparation of the necessary database is often a time consuming and costly endeavor. This demonstration project assesses the viability of creating a cost-effective spatial database for urban stormwater modeling from existing digital and hard-copy data sources. The GIS was used to provide input parameters to the Source Loading and Management Model (SLANM), an empirical urban stormwater quality model. Land use characteristics, drainage boundaries, and soils information were geocoded and referenced to a base data layer consisting of transportation features. GIS overlay and data manipulation capabilities were utilized to preprocess the input data for the model. Model output was analyzed through postprocessing by GIS, and results were compared to a similar recent modeling study of the same watershed. The project, undertaken for a small urban watershed located in Plymouth, Minnesota, successfully demonstrates that the use of GIS in stormwater management can allow even small communities to reap the benefits of stormwater quality modeling.     

MODELING FLOW IN THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA IRRIGATION/DRAINAGE CANAL NETWORK1

ABSTRACT: The south Florida ecosystem and Lake Okeechobee are important water resource areas that have degraded due to changes in hydroperiod, water supply, and water quality. Approximately 56 percent of the total phosphorus in water discharged from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is in particulate form. Currently, farm-level best management practices are being implemented in the effort to reduce total phosphorus and sediment in off-farm discharges. The objective of this work was to develop and calibrate a model describing water movement in primary EAA canals as a first step to development of a water quality (i.e., nutrient, sediment) model. The Netherlands-developed mechanistic flow and water quality model (DUFLOW) was adapted for the EAA. Flow, stage, geometry, canal network, and meteorological data, October 13, 1993, to February 13, 1994, were used to adapt and calibrate the DUFLOW model for EAA water level and flow in primary canals. Direct runoff discharge into the primary canals from farm-pump stations was used as runoff input for the model. The model results are comparable to an independently-calculated water balance for the EAA. The calibrated flow model will be the basis for the calibration of sediment and chemical transport in the future.     

CONTINUOUS SIMULATION FOR WATER QUALITY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a methodology for the evaluation of water quality plans analogous to procedures used in flood control planning, where flood damage frequency curves provide the basis for determining flood control benefits. The proposed method uses continuous water quality simulation to develop long term information from which water quality frequency curves can be obtained. This frequency information allows the evaluation of the impact of proposed water quality control plans taking into consideration the variable nature of the water resource. Using treatment costs and other economic indicators of water quality, the frequency information can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness and economic efficiency of alternative plans. The method is demonstrated in a semi-hypothetical environment; real hydrologic and climatic characteristics are assigned to a hypothetical watershed configuration. Alternative management plans are simulated and analyzed for both physical and economic impacts. The advantages of continuous simulation and its use in water quality planning are explored.