Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity

Strategies to conserve biodiversity need to include the monitoring, modelling, adaptation and regulation of the composition of the atmosphere. Atmospheric issues include climate variability and extremes; climate change; stratospheric ozone depletion; acid deposition; photochemical pollution; suspended particulate matter; and hazardous air pollutants. Coarse filter and fine filter approaches have been used to understand the complexity of the interactions between the atmosphere and biodiversity. In the first approach, climate-based models, using GIS technology, helped create future biodiversity scenarios under a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere. In the second approach, the SI/MAB forest biodiversity monitoring protocols helped calibrate the climate-forest biodiversity baseline and, as global diagnostics, helped identify where the biodiversity was in equilibrium with the present climate. Forest climate monitoring, an enhancing protocol, was used in a co-location approach to define the thermal buffering capacity of forest ecosystems and their ability to reduce and ameliorate global climate variability, extremes and change.     

Biodiversity and Saving the Earth

The challenges for reversing course in our stewardship of the earth's ecosystems has never been greater. Biodiversity is in decline on an unprecedented scale and it is tempting to use this as an indicator of the health of the earth's ecosystems. In fact it is one of a number of indicators that collectively provides information on trends in the condition of ecosystems. But the larger problem is the lack of integration between the social and natural sciences. Mainstream scientists continue to reject the notion that solving environmental problems requires an integration of values and processes. A conceptual model shows how these facets may be brought together. A holistic vision requires the integration of natural, social and health sciences. From this perspective the linkage between biodiversity, ecosystem resilience and management options is more clearly articulated.     

Quantification of the Impact of Land-Use Changes on Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in Pingbian County, China

Pingbian Miao Autonomous County is one of the poorest rural areas in China. Land-use changes, mainly driven by agricultural expansion and deforestation, may significantly impact ecosystem services and functions, but such effects are difficult to quantify. In the present study, Landsat image data were combined with the published coefficients about the world and China ecosystem to quantify land-use and ecosystem service changes in the mountainous area. A sensitivity analysis was employed to determine the effect of manipulating these coefficients on the estimated values. Our results show that during the past decades (from 1973 to 2004) forests and grasslands were converted into shrubland and cropland, respectively, resulting in a continuous decrease in ecosystem service (from 124.5 US$ × 10⁶ in 1973 to 100.4 US$ × 10⁶ in 2004). We found that the decrease of mixed forest in the study area was the largest contributor (i.e., 25.4 US$ × 10⁶) to the decline of the ecosystem service. Therefore we propose that future land-use policy should pay more attention to the crucial ecosystem functions of these forests (including tropical forest), and that it is necessary to balance the relationship between the livelihood of local farmers and environmental protection in order to maintain a healthy and stable ecosystem.     

Atmospheric Change, Forests and Biodiversity

Predicted atmospheric change, mainly climate change, will have profound effects on the biodiversity of Canadian forests. Predictions derived from forest models, responses of species and ecosystems related to modern ecological characteristics and paleoecological studies suggest large-scale, wide-ranging changes from the biome to physiological levels. Paleoecological analogues in B.C. and other parts of Canada reveal that major changes must be expected in forest composition, range, structure and ecological processes. In B.C., past warmer and drier climates supported a different forest pattern, including forest types with no modern analogue. This produced dramatically different disturbance regimes, specifically more fires, and affected tree growth rates. The relationship of forests with non-forest habitats, especially wetlands and grasslands was different suggesting implications for wildlife biodiversity. British Columbia's Forest Practices Code prescribes guidelines for biodiversity objectives but ignores the issue of atmospheric change. This omission may result from a lack of understanding of the profound potential effects of atmospheric change on forest biodiversity in the next harvest cycle and lack of mechanisms to assess impacts and develop management strategies for specific sites. An example of a simple paleoecological assessment method involving pollen ratios is proposed.     

Changes in Near-Surface Temperature and Sea Level for the Post-SRES CO2-Stabilization Scenarios

Changes in global near-surface temperature and sea level are calculated from 2000 to 2100 for the Post-SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios that stabilize the CO₂ concentration early in the 22nd century. Seven stabilization scenarios are examined together with their corresponding SRES marker scenarios – A1, A1/S450, A1/S550, A1/S650, A2, A2/S550, A2/S750, B1, B1/S450, B2, and B2/S550 – where the number following the S indicates the stabilized CO₂ concentration in parts per million by volume (ppmv). The calculations are performed using an energy-balance-climate/upwelling-diffusion-ocean model for three values of the climate sensitivity, ΔT _2x =1.5, 2.5 and 4.5°C. The resulting reductions in global warming and sea-level rise for the stabilization scenarios relative to their corresponding marker scenario increases with ΔT _2x and are greater the lower the stabilized CO₂ concentration. For the S550 stabilization scenarios, the reductions in global warming and sea-level rise in 2100 range from 0.29°C and 3.31 cm for B2/S550 with ΔT _2x =1.5°C, to 1.23°C and 11.81 cm for A2/S550 with ΔT _2x =4.5°C. The percent reductions for the global warming and sea-level rise for each stabilization scenario are almost independent of ΔT _2x and range respectively from about 16% and 12% for the A1/S650 scenario to about 39% and 30% for the A1/S450 scenario. The geographical distributions of near-surface temperature change are constructed using a method to superpose the patterns simulated by our atmospheric general-circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model, individually for doubled CO₂ concentration and decupled SO₄ burden. Results are illustrated for the B2 and B2/S550 scenarios for ΔT _2x =2.5°C. The near-surface temperature changes of the B2/S550 scenario in 2100 are everywhere smaller than those for the B2 scenario, with values ranging from about 0.3°C in the tropics to 0.5°C over Antarctica and 0.7°C in the Arctic. The global results of this study are available on the web at: http://crga.atmos.uiuc.edu/research/post-sres.html. We would be pleased to collaborate with other researchers in using these results in impact and integrated-assessment studies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Implications of Atmospheric Change for Biodiversity of Aquatic Ecosystems in Canada

Overall, the greatest threats to Canadian and global biodiversity are associated with conversions of natural ecosystems to anthropogenic ones, and over-exploitation of biological resources. This circumstance does not, however, trivialize the importance of atmospheric influences. Although scientific understanding of the risks is incomplete, it is nevertheless clear that anthropogenic changes in atmospheric stressors are potentially damaging to biodiversity and other ecological values over medium- and longer-term scales. It is important that greater investments be made in support of longer-term monitoring and research designed to understand the effects of atmospheric and other environmental stressors on the biodiversity and structure and function of Canadian ecosystems.     

伊犁地区生物多样性保护及利用

伊犁地区是新疆多种多样动植物的分布中心,堪称自然宝库、天生的博物园。由于人类活动的不断加剧、物种资源过度开发利用、森林的破坏与片段化、水域污染等原因,使生物多样性受到威胁。本文通过对伊犁地区生物多样性保护现状和存在问题的分析,提出相应的保护对策及建议。     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity in the Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is characterized by a high variation in landform types and there are complex interactions between land, water and the atmosphere which dramatically affect the distribution of biota. Biodiversity depends upon the intensity, predictability and scale of these interactions. Observations, as well as predictions of large-scale climate models which include ocean circulation, reveal an anomalous cooling of northeastern Canada in recent decades, in contrast to the overall significant increase in average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from models are necessary to forecast the change in the treeline in the 21st century which may lead to a major loss of tundra. The rate of change in vegetation in response to climate change is poorly understood. The treeline in central Canada, for example, is showing infilling with trees, and in some locations, northerly movement of the boundary. The presence of sea ice in Hudson Bay and other coastal areas is a major factor affecting interactions between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Loss of ice and therefore hunting of seals by polar bears will reduce bear and arctic fox populations within the region. In turn, this is likely to have significant effects on their herbivorous prey populations and forage plants. Further, the undersurface of sea ice is a major site for the growth of algae and marine invertebrates which in turn act as food for the marine food web. A rise in sea-level may flood coastal saltmarsh communities leading to changes in plant assemblages and a decline in foraging by geese and other consumers. The anomalous cooling in the eastern Arctic, primarily in late winter and early spring, has interrupted northern migration of breeding populations of geese and ducks and led to increased damage to vegetation in southern arctic saltmarshes as a result of foraging. It is likely that there has been a significant loss of invertebrates in those areas where the vegetation has been destroyed. Warming will have major effects on permafrost distribution and on ground-ice resulting in a major destabilization of slopes and slumping of soil, and disruption of tundra plant communities. Disruption of peat and moss surfaces lead to loss of insulation, an increase in active-layer depth and changes in drainage and plant assemblages. Increases of UV-B radiation will strongly affect vulnerable populations of both plants and animals. The indigenous peoples will face major changes in life style, edibility of food and health standards, if there is a significant warming trend. The great need is for information which is sensitive to the changes and will assist in developing an understanding of the complex interactions of the arctic biota, human populations and the physical environment.     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity: Co-Networks and Networking

Canada responded to the Global Biodiversity Convention by completing the Canadian Biodiversity Strategy in 1995. At the same time, Environment Canada also completed a national Science Assessment on Biodiversity. During this period, the Smithsonian Institution, in partnership with Parks and Environment Canada, initiated the implementation of a global biodiversity monitoring program in Canada. Under the auspices of the United Nations Man and the Biosphere Program, the SI/MAB monitoring protocols and plots have spread across Canada at an unprecedented rate. National champions in the science and educational sectors, working within an inter-disciplinary ecological framework, have guided the development, education, quality control and sharing of atmosphere-biodiversity observations electronically.Atmospheric-Biodiversity Networks and Networking have traditionally operated within separate mandates with little degree of integration. Air-Bio Networks were designed within an integrated framework to better understand the atmospheric stress on biodiversity and the adaptation actions, nationally and regionally. Detailed examples of the cumulative effects of climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acid deposition, ground-level ozone, suspended particulate matter and hazardous air pollutants on biodiversity will be discussed using a Southern Ontario case study. In addition, recommendations will be presented for future paired SI/MAB plots, linked networks and networking for adaptation within the context of climate, chemical and ecological gradients.     

Towards a Simple Indicator of Biodiversity

Policy makers in Canada have suggested that the scientific community should develop an indicator of biodiversity change that can be implemented quite quickly without a major new investment in monitoring systems. We propose that such an indicator can be developed from the theory of species gradients in community ecology. The term 'species gradients' refers to the increasing diversity of species through time under stable conditions, and the increasing diversity of species with the increased use of available resources. This theory is reviewed under four different headings: evolutionary ecology, the energy theory, the resource productivity theory and the thermodynamic mechanism. The theoretical arguments provide a basis to propose detection of the 'leaky ecosystem' as an indicator of biodiversity. We propose that it is possible to detect the leaky energetics of ecosystems by means of routinely available observations of outgoing longwave radiation.     

A Simulation Framework for Assessing Physical and Wildlife Impacts of Oil and Gas Development Scenarios in Southwestern Wyoming

Foreseeable natural gas development in southwestern Wyoming has the potential to increase sagebrush fragmentation and risks to resident wildlife species. The ability to balance future development with conservation goals, however, is enhanced by advances in directional-drilling technologies that use multiple wells per pad and produce less surface disturbance than conventional drilling methods. To evaluate the conservation potential of this technology, I developed an energy footprint model that simulates well, pad, and road patterns for oil and gas recovery options that vary in well types (vertical and directional) and number of wells per pad and use simulation results to quantify physical and wildlife-habitat impacts. I applied the model to assess tradeoffs among 10 conventional and directional-drilling scenarios in a natural gas field in southwestern Wyoming. Scenarios spanned a gradient in the number of vertical and directional wells, and in number of pads (2000 to 250), but all extracted the same amount of gas over a 15-year period. Reducing pad numbers with directional-drilling technology reduced surface disturbance area and impacts on spatially extensive habitats (48–96% of study area) such as sagebrush-obligate songbird habitat, elk winter range, and sagebrush core area. Impacts declined for spatially restricted mule deer migration corridors (24% of study area) and greater sage-grouse leks until energy infrastructure densities within corridors and near leks were similar to the initial landscape. Scenario simulations and tradeoff assessments such as illustrated in this study are intended to help decision-makers identify development designs that best achieve both energy and conservation goals.     

Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.     

Risk of Hunger Under Climate Change, Social Disparity, and Agroproductivity Scenarios

Considering the projected population growth in the twenty-first century, some studies have indicated that global warming may have negative impacts on the risk of hunger. These conclusions were derived based on assumptions related to social and technological scenarios that involve substantial and influential uncertainties. In this paper, focusing on agrotechnology and food access disparity, we analyzed food availability and risk of hunger under the combined scenarios of food demands and agroproductivity with and without climate change by 2100 for the B2 scenario in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The results of this study suggest that (1) future food demand can be satisfied globally under all assumed combined scenarios, and (2) a reduction of food access disparity and increased progress in productivity are just as important as climate change mitigation for reducing the risk of hunger.     

滨州沿海湿地生物多样性保护探讨

重点研究了该区域海洋生物多样性、淡水生物多样性、陆生和海岛等高等植物多样性、陆栖动物多样性与特点。分析了其破坏现状及原因，提出了生物多样性保护对策和可持续利用途径。     

Policy Characterization of Ecosystem management

This paper provides a comparison of ecosystem management (EM) to the traditional regulatory management approach and outlines the characteristics of EM from a policy perspective, defining the conditions under which this management tool can be successfully implemented. Ecosystem management is a collaborative and integrative tool focused on balancing societal needs, economic growth, and environmental protection to ensure the long-term ecological integrity of a particular ecosystem. The characteristics of this particular tool include: (1) its holistic approach to environmental problems; (2) its integration of values (economic, social, and environmental) through a collaborative, multi-partner, decision making structure; (3) its reliance on science to guide decisions and set boundaries; and (4) its ability to learn from the implementation of decisions (adaptive management). Examples are draw from Environment Canada's various regional ecosystem initiatives.     

Monitoring of Biodiversity Indicators in Boreal Forests: a Need for Improved Focus

The general principles of scale and coarse and fine filters have been widely accepted, but management agencies and industry are still grappling with the question of what to monitor to detect changes in forest biodiversity following forest management. Part of this problem can be attributed to the lack of focused questions for monitoring including absence of null models and predicted effects, a certain level of disconnect between research and management, and recognition that monitoring can be designed as a research question. Considerable research from the past decade has not been adequately synthesized to answer important questions, such as which species or forest attributes might be the best indicators of change. A disproportionate research emphasis has been placed on community ecology, and mostly on a few groups of organisms including arthropods, amphibians, migratory songbirds, and small mammals, while other species, including soil organisms, lichens, bats, raptors, some carnivores, and larger mammals remain less well-known. In most studies of community ecology, the question of what is the importance, if any, of the regularly observed subtle changes in community structures, and causes of observed changes is usually not answered. Hence, our ability to deal with questions of persistence is limited, and demographic research on regionally--defined key species (such as species linked to processes, species whose persistence may be affected, species with large home ranges, species already selected as indicators, and rare and threatened species) is urgently needed. Monitoring programs need to be designed to enable managers to respond to unexpected changes caused by forest management. To do this, management agencies need to articulate null models for monitoring that predict effects, focus fine--scale monitoring on key species (defined by local and regional research) in key habitats (rare, declining, important) across landscapes, and have a protocol in place to adapt management strategies to changes observed. Finally, agencies must have some way to determine and define when a significant change has occurred and to predict the persistence of species; this too should flow from a well--designed null model.     

Simulation of Urban-Scale Air Pollution Patterns in Luxembourg: Contributing Sources and Emission Scenarios

The aim of this study is to investigate the air pollution situation in an urban area in southwestern Luxembourg and to simulate annual NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations in response to changes in meteorological conditions and emissions using a Gaussian dispersion model. Simulations are carried out for the years 1998–2006. Emission scenarios related to road transport and nonindustrial combustion are performed in order to predict changes of air pollution levels. Road transport is by far the most important local emission source in the study area. Scenarios with more stringent emission standards for vehicles, less traffic, and fewer heavy-duty vehicles lead to reductions of NO_x and primary PM₁₀ emissions. As a result, the annual NO₂ concentrations are decreasing in most parts of the study area and are below the European annual limit value of 40 μg?m^?3. In contrast, a scenario with increased use of wood pellets for domestic heating shows an increase in urban PM₁₀ concentration. The year-to-year variability of meteorological conditions accounts for the same magnitude of absolute NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentration changes as the emission scenarios. The comparison with measurements located in the study area shows that the model is able to predict urban-scale annual average air pollution. The proposed application results show that the model can be appropriate for policy-driven air quality management and planning queries.     

Using Geographically Isolated Loading Scenarios to Analyze Nitrogen and Phosphorus Exchanges and Explore Tailored Nutrient Control Strategies for Efficient Management

A set of geographically isolated differential nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) load model scenarios from major Chesapeake basins provides information on the relative impact of nutrient loads on primary production and dissolved oxygen in the Chesapeake Bay. Model results show the relationships of deep water dissolved oxygen with nutrient limitation-related algal blooms, organic carbon loads from the watershed, estuarine circulation, nutrient cycling, and nutrient diagenesis. The combined effect of changes in load from multiple basins is additive for changes in both chlorophyll-a and deep water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Management of both N and P are required in the Chesapeake watershed and tidal waters to achieve water quality standards, but overall efficiencies could be gained with strategies that place greater emphasis on P control in the upper Bay and greater emphasis on N control in the lower Bay. The areas of the Bay with the highest degree of dissolved oxygen degradation that generally drive management decisions are mostly P-limited and are significantly influenced by the load from the upper Bay’s basins. Reducing P from the upper Bay’s basins will intensify P limitation and would allow an increase in N of about six times the weight of P reduction. Combining the relative nutrient reduction effectiveness with the relative control cost information could improve management efficiency and provide benefits at a lower cost. This article describes initial steps that can be taken to examine the benefits from N-P exchanges.     

Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.