Estuarine management strategies and the predictability of ecosystem changes

The Dutch Delta Region (S-W Netherlands) originally consisted of interconnected estuaries, interfacing the rivers Rhine, Meuse and Schelde with the North Sea. The ecosystems were immature, with physical rather than biological control of population dynamics. Main functions were shipping and shellfisheries. An emergent function of the interconnected estuaries was the buffering and upgrading of riverborne substances before they entered the sea. Execution of the Delta Project in the period 1960–1986 resulted in isolation of several water systems disconnected from rivers and sea, and loss of gradients within these systems. Population dynamics were now controlled by chemical and biological rather than physical factors. Vulnerability to external perturbation increased. These changes also affected the buffering capacity, i.e. reduced the utility of the area as stabiliser of the geosystem. Recreational use and appreciation of natural values increased, potentially conflicting with shipping and shellfisheries. Retrospective analysis of the environmental policy and management revealed three consecutive strategies in the Delta Project. 1. Reactive one-issue management, focusing on safety against flooding only. This strategy aimed at complete closure of the estuaries thus transforming them into fresh water lakes. It has destroyed feed-backs and buffering between coastal and inland waters. This strategy has not promoted sustainable development and has increased the vulnerability of the area to future catastrophes. 2. Protective bio-ecological management focused on the preservation of existing values of landscape and environment, and resulted in the maintenance of saline conditions and preservation of marshes by shore protection measures. The drawback of this passive orientation to existing values Ôwhere they are nowÕ is the necessity of continuous intensive care because the natural adaptive ability is not being restored. 3. Constructive geo-ecological management is based on understanding functional properties within and between ecosystems as integrated elements of the landscape structure. This strategy aims at environmental protection, restoration and development of values Ôwhere they must beÕ. Re-establishment of gradients by e.g. re-introducing tidal influence and by restoring salt marshes should contribute to sustainable development.     

滨海盐沼及其植物群落的分布与多样性

滨海盐沼是广泛存在于世界中、高纬度地区的一种湿地生态系统,具有抵御风暴潮灾害、净化污染物和为珍稀濒危生物提供适宜生境等重要的生态和经济价值。滨海盐沼因随高程变化而急剧变化的环境梯度和植物带状分布现象而为生态学者阐释自然界物种的分布机制提供了理想系统。主要概述了滨海盐沼的定义、特点、类型、全球分布以及潮汐作用、土壤盐度等环境因子特征;阐述了不同尺度下滨海盐沼的植物群落分布和多样性特征。在滨海盐沼植物群落的分布特征上,重点阐述了中尺度下的植物带状分布,即植物群落往往在白海向陆渐高的不同高程梯度上表现出显著的分带分布,不同植物各自占据该梯度上的一定区域。通常认为,带状分布是植物竞争和物理性胁迫共同调控的结果,但其在不同地理区域的普适性仍存争议。滨海植物群落多样性往往较低,在中、小尺度上盐沼植物多样性受控于盐度、潮汐等物理性胁迫、植物间相互作用等因子的作用;在大尺度上盐沼植物多样性可能随纬度增大而增加。系统深入地认识滨海盐沼植物群落生态格局和过程,将为气候变化、生物入侵等人类影响下的滨海盐沼生态系统的管理和恢复提供有益经验。     

Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea‐level rise

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present‐day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low‐lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies.     

Ecological responses to reductions in freshwater supply and quality in South Africa’s estuaries: lessons for management and conservation

Fresh water, a fundamental element of all estuarine ecosystems, is South Africa’s most limited natural resource. Recent projections indicate that by the year 2020 the country will be utilizing all its exploitable freshwater sources. Steeply increasing demands by a rapidly growing population on this limited commodity have already resulted in a severe reduction of water supplies to natural users such as estuaries — this trend is predicted to increase in the future. Concurrent with excessive water abstraction, poor land husbandry (e.g. soil erosion) in many catchment basins and pollution (e.g. salinization) in return flows have led to a serious deterioration in water quality. In contrast, a review of estuarine responses to varying flow regimes stresses the strong dependence of local systems on riverine fresh water inputs of adequate quantity and quality. Freshwater dependence is i.a. expressed in: flooding events that scour accumulated sediments, riverine nutrient input to drive estuarine phyto- and zooplankton production, axial salinity gradients that increase habitat and species diversity, and maintenance of open tidal inlets that prevent salinity and temperature extremes and facilitate larval exchange, fish migrations and tidal flushing of salt marshes. Thus, estuarine conservation will have to encompass management of rivers and watersheds and play an increasingly political role in decision processes concerning water allocations among ‘human’ and ‘natural’ users.     

Consumer Control of Salt Marshes Driven by Human Disturbance

Abstract:  Salt marsh ecosystems are widely considered to be controlled exclusively by bottom–up forces, but there is mounting evidence that human disturbances are triggering consumer control in western Atlantic salt marshes, often with catastrophic consequences. In other marine ecosystems, human disturbances routinely dampen (e.g., coral reefs, sea grass beds) and strengthen (e.g., kelps) consumer control, but current marsh theory predicts little potential interaction between humans and marsh consumers. Thus, human modification of top–down control in salt marshes was not anticipated and was even discounted in current marsh theory, despite loud warnings about the potential for cascading human impacts from work in other marine ecosystems. In spite of recent experiments that have challenged established marsh dogma and demonstrated consumer-driven die-off of salt marsh ecosystems, government agencies and nongovernmental organizations continue to manage marsh die-offs under the old theoretical framework and only consider bottom–up forces as causal agents. This intellectual dependency of many coastal ecologists and managers on system-specific theory (i.e., marsh bottom–up theory) has the potential to have grave repercussions for coastal ecosystem management and conservation in the face of increasing human threats. We stress that marine vascular plant communities (salt marshes, sea grass beds, mangroves) are likely more vulnerable to runaway grazing and consumer-driven collapse than is currently recognized by theory, particularly in low-diversity ecosystems like Atlantic salt marshes.     

Ecological Sustainability as a Conservation Concept

Neither the classic resource management concept of maximum sustainable yield nor the concept of sustainable development are useful to contemporary, nonanthropocentric, ecologically informed conservation biology. As an alternative, we advance an ecological definition of sustainability that is in better accord with biological conservation: meeting human needs without compromising the health of ecosystems. In addition to familiar benefit-cost constraints on human economic activity, we urge adding ecologic constraints. Projects are not choice-worthy if they compromise the health of the ecosystems in which human economic systems are embedded. Sustainability, so defined, is proffered as an approach to conservation that would complement wildlands preservation for ecological integrity, not substitute for wildlands preservation.     

Coastal lagoons: “transitional ecosystems” between transitional and coastal waters

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) establishes a well differentiated typology of water bodies on the basis of scientific and biological criteria. For coastal waters, such criteria have long been established, while for transitional waters they are still under discussion. One of the difficulties when applying the WFD to coastal lagoons is to include them in only one of these categories, and while there is no doubt about the nature of estuaries as transitional waters, there is some controversy concerning lagoons. To what extent, reference conditions may be similar for estuaries and lagoons, or whether features common to all coastal lagoons are more important for differentiating them from other water bodies than the fact that there is (or is not) any fresh water influence, is something that remains unclear and is discussed in this work. Coastal lagoons and estuaries form part of a continuum between continental and marine aquatic ecosystems. Shelter, strong boundaries or gradients with adjacent ecosystems, anomalies in salinity regarding freshwater or marine ecosystems, shallowness, etc. all contribute to the high biological productivity of estuaries and lagoons and determine common ecological guilds in the species inhabiting them. On the other hand, fresh water influence, the spatial organization of gradients and environmental variability (longitudinal one-dimensional gradients in estuaries versus complex patterns and three-dimensional heterogeneity in lagoons) constitute the main differences, since these factors affect both the species composition and the dominance of certain ecological guilds and, probably, the system’s complexity and homeostatic capability. In the context of the WFD, coastal lagoons and estuaries are closer to each other than they are to continental or marine waters, and, on the basis of the shared features, they could be intercalibrated and managed together. However, coastal lagoons cannot be considered transitional waters according to the present definition. To assume that fresh water influence is an inherent characteristic to these ecosystems could lead to important changes in the ecological organization and functioning of coastal lagoons where natural fresh water input is low or null. In our opinion, the present day definition of transitional waters should be changed substituting the criterion of fresh water influence by another based on common features, such as relative isolation and anomalies in salinity in water bodies with marine influence. Otherwise, coastal lagoons should be considered a particularly characteristic type of water mass for establishing reference conditions of ecological status.     

Coastal dynamics and adaptation to uncertain sea level rise: Optimal portfolios for salt marsh migration

The sustainability of dynamic natural systems often depends on their capacity to adapt to uncertain climate-related changes, where different management options may be combined to facilitate this adaptation. Salt marshes exemplify such a system. Marsh sustainability under rapid sea level rise requires the preservation of transgression zones - undeveloped uplands onto which marshes migrate. Whether these uplands eventually become marsh depends on uncertain sea level rise and natural dynamics that determine migration onto different land types. Under conditions such as these, systematically diversified management actions generally outperform ad hoc or non-diversified alternatives. This paper develops the first adaptation portfolio model designed to optimize the benefits of a migrating coastal system. Results are illustrated using a case study of marsh conservation in Virginia, USA. Results suggest that models of this type can enhance adaptation benefits beyond those available through current approaches.     

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea‐level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18‐year marsh‐bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea‐level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (?2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from ?4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea‐level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.     

Salt Marsh Harvest Mice, Urban Development, and Rising Sea Levels

Abstract: The salt marsh harvest mouse, Reithrodontomys raviventris , is endemic to the marshes of San Francisco Bay. Ultimate factors such as rising sea level and tectonic changes will play important roles in the future management of the mouse, causing a shift from tidal marshes threatened by submergence to diked marshes threatened by development Land values and government regulations force the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and other agencies into proximate management strategies to recover the species. Whether large enough areas of diked marsh can be acquired in the near future to adequately protect the mouse in perpetuity is questioned.     

Spread of the native grass <Emphasis Type="Italic">Elymus athericus</Emphasis> in salt marshes of Mont-Saint-Michel bay as an unusual case of coastal eutrophication

Contrary to many estuaries where the increase in inputs of nitrogenous nutrients results in a macro-algal or phytoplanktonic bloom, no proliferation of this kind has ever been observed in the waters of Mont-Saint-Michel bay (north-western France) owing to a very high turbidity which greatly limits light penetration. On the other hand, it is well known that the factor that usually limits the growth of vascular plants in salt marshes is not the light resource but nitrogen availability; these plant species are therefore able to benefit fully from the enrichment of water by nitrogenous compounds. This seems to be the case of the sea couch grass Elymus athericus that has spread very rapidly on the salt marshes of this site since the mid-1980s. Firstly, the present study (i) accurately documents, from a compilation of data from administrative archives, the changes in agricultural land use in the major watersheds during the period 1970–2010, together with related changes in the nitrate contents of the rivers flowing into the bay; (ii) quantifies the spatial spread of sea couch grass between 1984 and 2013 from the five maps made during this period. In the second part, using in-depth analysis based on the findings of previous studies, it shows that the expansion of this native grass corresponds to a biological invasion phenomenon, for which nitrogen enrichment of the bay seems to be the only plausible explanation.     

Evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions from wetland and agriculture ecosystems in Sanjiang Plain

Carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) are important greenhouse gases (GHGs). The objective of this study is to quantify the aggregate GHG (CH₄, N₂O and CO₂) emissions and estimate economic losses of three ecosystems (marsh, paddy field and upland) in the Sanjiang Plain, excluding the Muling-Xiangkai Plain, south of Wanda Mountain. The results indicate the economic losses from GHG emissions of marshes were from 6.40 to 7.75?×?10⁹ CNY (Chinese Yuan), those of paddy fields were from 1.41 to 3.20?×?10⁹ CNY; and from uplands were from 0.26 to 0.49?×?10⁹ CNY. Using linear trend analysis, the economic losses through GHG emissions of marshes fell between 1982 and 2005, but those from paddy fields and uplands increased. In our study, the sequence in magnitude of the economic losses from GHG emissions was: marshes > paddy fields > uplands. In fact, the economic value of GHG emissions was negative because of these adverse impacts on the environment. This article could provide a reference for calculation of GHG exchange. The results suggest that improvement of fertiliser use efficiency for more precise agricultural management and returning straw to cropland could mitigate GHG emissions and would help to achieve sustainable development.     

Nachhaltigkeit in der Pflanzenproduktion

The purpose of part II is to develop and to discuss a methodological approach for the practical implementation of sustainable crop production. In part I the term “sustainable crop production” has been defined and explained. Based on this definition the approach presented here entails several steps starting with the identification of the whole range of crop management measures and the emissions and other releases associated with them. Through an impact pathway assessment these releases are traced from their point of origin, the farm or production level, to their end points, namely agroecosystems and adjacent ecosystems. At the ecosystem level condition-indicators, which describe the condition of the ecosystems affected by agricultural crop production measures, need to be selected. For these condition-indicators threshold values (i.e. maximally tolerable values) have to be determined. These should not be exceeded if irreversible changes in the respective ecosystems and ecosystem compartments are to be avoided. By tracing the maximally tolerable values back along their impact pathway, they are transposed to the level of crop production. At the farm level they prescribe a framework within which agricultural crop production must remain to prevent irreversible changes in the affected ecosystems. The framework consists of production indicators and their respective threshold values (i.e. critical uses of farm inputs), which have to be adhered to in order to ensure sustainable crop production.     

The meaning of mainland Portugal beaches and dunes’ psammophilic plant communities: a contribution to tourism management and nature conservation

Due to their position of interface between the sea and land, the flora and vegetation of coastal beaches and dunes, occupy ecologically extreme, sensitive, unique and valuable habitats. The occurrence of a large number of endemic taxa and specific plant associations endowed with key ecological services and adapted to a stressful and harsh environmental gradient, gives them a high interest for nature conservation and an important role in sustainable territorial planning. However, such ecosystems are vulnerable to the disruption caused by several anthropogenic sources. Among other global threat factors, the inevitable sea rise caused by climate change and, at a local scale, the non-negligible implications of trampling caused by disorderly coastal touristic exploitation, growing construction pressure in the littoral, and a seasonal population boom in late spring and in summer, plus all derivate forms of pollution, are threat factors to their integrity. Therefore, a correct planning of the touristic economic activities requires the understanding of the vegetation composition and spatial distribution patterns, intrinsically determined by their biogeographic context in the Euro-Siberian or Mediterranean Regions. This comprehensive work, based on a broad phytogeographic study, brings together disperse information on plant communities of the Portuguese sandy coasts (beaches and dunes), by analysing floristic compositions, chorology and ecological characteristics, and matching them with the “Nature 2000” network habitats. Resilience and vulnerability are also studied. In a nature conservation perspective, a positive balance (and a sustainable co-existence) between the preservation of natural values and human development in the Portuguese coast, will benefit with the integration of this knowledge in coastal planning and management activities.     

Coastline management in The Netherlands: human use versus natural dynamics

The boundary between land and sea in The Netherlands changes continuously. Every kilometre of the present position of the Dutch sandy coastline is the result of the interface between natural dynamics initiated by the sea and man-made action on land. Before 1990, each year ca. 20 ha of dunes disappeared through coastal retreat. In 1990 the Dutch government decided to stop any further long-term coastal recession and chose for ‘dynamic preservation’, which primarily aims, at ensuring safety against flooding and sustainable preservation of the values and interests attached to the dunes and beaches. Five years later, a first review of the benefits and bottlenecks of the new coastal defence policy could be presented. The overall conclusion is that the 1990-choice for dynamic preservation was right. The considerable losses of dunes and beaches do not occur any longer. Sand nourishment is an effective method of coastline maintenance, which also serves the functions of the beach and dune area for human society. However, serious erosion of the deeper part of the shoreface threatens the coastline of the 21st century. Nearly a doubling of the nourishment volume is necessary to prevent a renewed landward shift of the coastline. An anticipated accelerated sea level rise (ca. 60 cm/century) will increase the sand losses by another 25%. Plans are being finalized for large-scale land reclamation in front of the coastline as an answer to growing spatial problems on land. In other plans polders, now safely protected by sea dikes, will be returned to the sea in order to restore ecologically valuable salt marshes and mud flats. The position of the coastline will continue to change in the coming decades. Besides natural dynamics, human use of the coastal zone will certainly affect this process: measures to maintain the coastline at its 1990 position need to be seen in perspective: the coastline as a part of the coastalzone.     

Denitrification across landscapes and waterscapes: a synthesis.

Denitrification is a critical process regulating the removal of bioavailable nitrogen (N) from natural and human-altered systems. While it has been extensively studied in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, there has been limited communication among denitrification scientists working in these individual systems. Here, we compare rates of denitrification and controlling factors across a range of ecosystem types. We suggest that terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems in which denitrification occurs can be organized along a continuum ranging from (1) those in which nitrification and denitrification are tightly coupled in space and time to (2) those in which nitrate production and denitrification are relatively decoupled. In aquatic ecosystems, N inputs influence denitrification rates whereas hydrology and geomorphology influence the proportion of N inputs that are denitrified. Relationships between denitrification and water residence time and N load are remarkably similar across lakes, river reaches, estuaries, and continental shelves. Spatially distributed global models of denitrification suggest that continental shelf sediments account for the largest portion (44%) of total global denitrification, followed by terrestrial soils (22%) and oceanic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs; 14%). Freshwater systems (groundwater, lakes, rivers) account for about 20% and estuaries 1% of total global denitrification. Denitrification of land-based N sources is distributed somewhat differently. Within watersheds, the amount of land-based N denitrified is generally highest in terrestrial soils, with progressively smaller amounts denitrified in groundwater, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and estuaries. A number of regional exceptions to this general trend of decreasing denitrification in a downstream direction exist, including significant denitrification in continental shelves of N from terrestrial sources. Though terrestrial soils and groundwater are responsible for much denitrification at the watershed scale, per-area denitrification rates in soils and groundwater (kg N x km(-2) x yr(-1)) are, on average, approximately one-tenth the per-area rates of denitrification in lakes, rivers, estuaries, continental shelves, or OMZs. A number of potential approaches to increase denitrification on the landscape, and thus decrease N export to sensitive coastal systems exist. However, these have not generally been widely tested for their effectiveness at scales required to significantly reduce N export at the whole watershed scale.     

盐沼植物群落研究进展：分布、演替及影响因子

盐沼是全球温带及亚热带地区的主要滨海湿地类型之一,在我国分布广泛。盐沼湿地生态系统敏感、脆弱且具有重要的生态系统服务功能。理解盐沼植物群落时空分布动态的一般规律与生态学机制,是开展盐沼生态系统研究的基础与关键。海陆交界的特殊环境特征是影响盐沼湿地植物群落的空间分布及演替过程的主要因素。在海洋潮汐作用下,盐沼湿地中的盐度、水淹强度、氧化还原电位等非生物因子往往呈梯度分布,这也导致了生物群落中种内、种间关系的变化。在非生物及生物因子的共同作用下,盐沼植物群落也往往沿高程梯度呈带状分布。环境变化是盐沼植物群落演替的驱动因素,在海岸线相对较为稳定的盐沼,植物群落的演替多属自发演替,而在靠近的大型河口的一些持续淤涨的盐沼,植物群落演替通常属于异发演替。沿海地区的水产业、流域上游及沿海地区的工程、污染及生物入侵等直接或间接的人类活动已对盐沼湿地植物群落的产生了深刻影响。经过数十年发展,国际上盐沼植物群落学研究的热点领域主要包括盐沼植物群落与其他生物群落的相互关系、植物群落在盐沼生态系统过程中的作用等。在全球变化背景下,盐沼植物群落对气候变化与海平面升高也日益成为盐沼植物群落学相关的热点。     

维护景观河道水质实现环境保护与经济有序发展双赢

景观河道自改造后正逐步形成区别于其它河流的独特景观河道水系特征。根据各项污染物的分析，综合评价水质现状，分析了污染源的分布及气候、降水、径流等因素对我市景观河道生态系统的影响，针对性的提出改善天津景观河道污染防治对策，以实现经济和环境的可持续发展。     

Science and management in four U.S. coastal ecossytems dominated by land-ocean interactions

The influence of science in the recognition of the effects of landscape changes on coastal ecosystems and in the development of effective policy for managing and restoring these ecosystems is examined through four case studies: Chesapeake Bay, San Francisco Bay, the Mississippi Delta, and Florida Bay. These ecosystems have undergone major alterations as a result of changes in the delivery of water, sediments and nutrients from their watersheds. Both science and management have been challenged by the spatial, functional and temporal scale mismatches inherent in the watershed-coastal ecosystem relationship. Key factors affecting the influence of science on management include (1) sustained scientific investigation, responsive to but not totally defined by managers; (2) clear evidence of change, the scale of the change and the causes of the change; (3) consensus among the scientific communities associated with various interests; (4) the development of models to guide management actions; (5) identification of effective and feasible solutions to the problems.     

Science and management in four U.S. coastal ecosystems dominated by land-ocean interactions

The influence of science in the recognition of the effects of landscape changes on coastal ecosystems and in the development of effective policy for managing and restoring these ecosystems is examined through four case studies: Chesapeake Bay, San Francisco Bay, the Mississippi Delta, and Florida Bay. These ecosystems have undergone major alterations as a result of changes in the delivery of water, sediments and nutrients from their watersheds. Both science and management have been challenged by the spatial, functional and temporal scale mismatches inherent in the watershed-coastal ecosystem relationship. Key factors affecting the influence of science on management include (1) sustained scientific investigation, responsive to but not totally defined by managers; (2) clear evidence of change, the scale of the change and the causes of the change; (3) consensus among the scientific communities associated with various interests; (4) the development of models to guide management actions; (5) identification of effective and feasible solutions to the problems.