China's Minerals Future: 1985–2005

China has embarked on major economic and social changes to revitalize the Chinese economy, increase labor productivity, and improve the material standard of living of the Chinese people. This paper assumes that China will achieve its goal of a per capita income of US$800 in 2000, open-door policies will be maintained, and nonfuel mineral commodity consumption will increase as GDP per capita increases. Projections are made of production, trade and consumption of 14 nonfuel minerals for the period 1985–2005. China is projected to increase its net imports to these 14 minerals from about US$5000 million in 1985 to about US$12000 million in constant dollars in 2005. China's investment climate will become more favorable for those multinational companies that bring with them clear comparative advantages in minerals exploration, mining and processing technologies and marketing, and are prepared to develop in-depth Chinese expertise.     

The outlook for oil

Between now and 2000, the demand for oil is expected to be moderate and the supply abundant. Economic growth is almost twice as slow as in 1973 and requires 25–30% less energy per unit of GNP. The demand for oil is therefore growing at a rate of two to three times slower. Meeting the demand for oil between now and 2000 is within the capability of the oil-producing countries, in many cases with modest additional investment. Gas and coal will be very cost competitive in relation to oil and will serve as a break on future explosive price increases.     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.     

Price prospects in Western Europe for internationally traded fossil fuels until 2000

A methodology for the long-term assessment of prices is designed and applied to the international markets for coal, oil and natural gas and likely price developments between 1990 and 2000 are explored. The coal market will remain competitive, and the long-term price will be determined by the total cost of marginal supply. The oil price will be set, even in the long term, substantially above the competitive level, by those who control the exceptional Middle East resource base. The traditional link between gas and oil prices will erode in the 1990s, and gas will be independently and competively priced by the turn of the century. Resource constraints are not expected to push prices upwards within the time horizon of the study. The relative price of gas will fall over the forecast period, and its market share will increase as a consequence.     

Effects of increased wood energy consumption on carbon storage in forests of the United States

Large but feasible increases that have been projected for the production of wood energy in the United States can be expected to significantly alter the current carbon storage patterns in US forest vegetation. The 1976 net wood increment left after forest cutting equals about 136 × 10⁶ tons of carbon/year, with about 60% of the increment found in merchantable trees, and the remainder in nonmerchantable components.Achieving 5–10 quads of wood energy beyond 1976 levels by the year 2010 can significantly change current carbon storage patterns with the magnitude of change dependent on the extent of residue harvest to meet energy goals, and the rate of future forest growth. Complete loss of the apparent net wood increment is a possible outcome.Although the future growth and harvest situation cannot be known now, a range of possible scenarios suggests that US forests in the year 2010 will store much less carbon than today, thus significantly changing their role in the global carbon cycle.     

Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production1

Elcock, Deborah, 2010. Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):447-460. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00413.x Abstract: This study investigates how meeting domestic energy production targets for both fossil and renewable fuels may affect future water demand. It combines projections of energy production developed by the U.S. Department of Energy with estimates of water consumption on a per-unit basis (water-consumption coefficients) for coal, oil, gas, and biofuels production, to estimate and compare the domestic freshwater consumed. Although total domestic freshwater consumption is expected to increase by nearly 7% between 2005 and 2030, water consumed for energy production is expected to increase by nearly 70%, and water consumed for biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol) production is expected to increase by almost 250%. By 2030, water consumed in the production of biofuels is projected to account for nearly half of the total amount of water consumed in the production of all energy fuels. Most of this is for irrigation, and the West North Central Region is projected to consume most of this water in 2030. These findings identify an important potential future conflict between renewable energy production and water availability that warrants further investigation and action to ensure that future domestic energy demand can be met in an economically efficient and environmentally sustainable manner.     

Global Trade in GM Food and the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety: Consequences for China

The UN Cartagena Protocol onBiosafety adopted in Montreal, 29 January, 2000and opened for signature in Nairobi, 15–26 May,2000 will exert a profound effect oninternational trade in genetically modifiedorganisms (GMOs) and their products. In thispaper, the potential effects of variousarticles of the Protocol on international tradein GMOs are analyzed. Based on the presentstatus of imports of GMOs and domestic researchand development of biotechnology in China,likely trends in imports of foreign GM food andrelated products after China accedes to WTO isexplored. Also, China's potentialcountermeasures to control and regulate importsof GMOs in line with implementation of theProtocol are discussed. China, in recent times,has increased its food and agricultural importssubstantially from USA and Canada. Chinaimported soybean 10.42 mill. tons in 2000 andabout 15 mill tons in 2001, of which majorityare from USA where GM soybean accounts for60%. The plantation of US Monsanto'stransgenic Bt cotton was increased to more than1 million ha in China in 2001. Though China haspaid great attention to develop biotechnology,it appears to have little scope to export GMOsand GM products. So China may consider a rangeof administrative measures to implement theCartagena Protocol and to regulate its importof GMOs and GM agricultural products.Consequently, the Regulation on Safety ofAgri-GMOs was issued on June, 2001 and followedthree detailed rules issued in Jan. of 2002,with a priority to limit foreign GMOs importingby safety certification and labeling system.These were outlined taking into accountpolicies adopted in Western countries such asgreen barriers to international trade.     

Oil and gas reserves of the Middle East and North Africa

A quantitative estimate of the petroleum reserves of the Middle East and North Africa is presented and analysed in terms of the region's ability to meet current market demand for a sweet light crude. Costs of Middle East production are compared with those of other oil-producing regions. With an average costs of US$4/bbl, the Middle East has both the largest oil reserves and the lowest cost oil in the world. While new and improved technology of exploration and production may lessen this price advantage in the future, it will not eliminate it. Because of these two factors, the Middle East will continue to play an important role on the world energy stage well into the next century.     

Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960

Between 1960 and 2000, Japan's real GDP grew 620%. However, its consumption of copper increased only 345%, thanks to a 38% decline in the country's intensity of copper use. In light of concerns today over the possible impact of future economic development in China, India, and other developing countries on the long-run availability of mineral resources, this study proposes to explore the causes for this dramatic decline in the Japanese intensity of copper use.For some time, we have known that the intensity of metal use within a country depends on its level of economic development, usually measured by per capita income, as well as on technological change, long-run price trends, and other factors whose influence varies, more or less, with time. This study finds that rising per capita income has increased the intensity of copper use in Japan over the entire period examined. Moreover, this positive effect is expected to continue until per capita income—$44,830 in 2000—reaches $53,000. Thereafter, further advances will tend to reduce the intensity of copper use. Conversely, new copper-saving technologies and other time-related variables have on average reduced the intensity of copper use by 2.9% a year, an amount sufficient not only to offset the positive effects of growing per capita income but also to reduce intensity of use by 38%.     

The Evolution and Role of Non-OPEC Production in the International Oil Market

In 1982, for the first time since OPEC was founded in 1961, its production was surpassed by the non-OPEC countries in the world excluding the centrally planned economies. In that year, for the world as a whole, OPEC provided 35% of the oil consumed. The decline was brought about by a decrease in consumption and by a marked increase in production from non-OPEC sources. It is expected that non-OPEC producers will have the capacity to meet more than half of the world's oil requirements until the early 1990s, at which time OPEC producers will again assume the role of providing over 50% of the world's oil.     

The world energy situation

The oil crisis has ended on a worldwide scale. Risks of excessive price rises have disappeared. Between now and the year 2000, oil resources costing less than $15/bbl (1988 dollars) will be abundant. Twenty to 25% of the oil consumed in 2000 for thermal uses will be replaced by less costly natural gas and coal. Consumption of these last two energy sources will increase if the cost of oil rises above $20/bbl (1988 dollars). The cost of oil will rise sharply when it becomes reserved for the uses for which it is irreplaceable, ie transport, petrochemicals, the Third World and non-energy uses — probably after 2010.     

Bulgaria Country Study to address climate change mitigation

Future developments of the Bulgarian economy, energy demand, energy supply, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected and evaluated for baseline and mitigation scenarios. Different methods and approaches are used at different stages of the study with a tendency to incorporate them in a single integrated resource planning tool such as the MARKAL-MACRO model. The results obtained indicate that the aim of Framework Convention of Climate Change to have year 2000 GHG emissions below the base year 1988 emissions will be achieved without further mitigation steps. Reducing the expected increase of GHG emissions in the decade 2000 to 2010 requires a package of mitigation measures to be implemented in the next few years.

     

RESOURCE DEMANDS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the development of a mathematical model for forecasting energy development in the Yellowstone study area for the years 1985 and 2000, and determining the associated economic demands for water, land, labor, capital, and mineral resources. The study was prepared for use by the Missouri River Basin Commission in conducting a comprehensive, “Level B” planning study of the water and related land resources in the Yellowstone River Basin. The study results indicate that the amount of coal development in the Yellowstone study area will depend primarily upon state and federal energy policies and regulations. Policies related to slurry pipeline transportation of coal will be particularly important in determining the level and pattern of future energy development in the area. Coal production under the “most probable” scenario is expected to increase from about 40 million tons in 1976 to 163 million tons per year by 1985, and 513 million tons in the year 2000. Consumptive water use for energy development in the study area could be as much as 556,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2000 (under the high scenario). A parametric analysis was conducted on the 1985 most probably scenario to determine the influence on the study results of variations in the delivered price of water. Water requirements were reduced by nearly one-fourth as water costs increased from zero to over $750 per acre-foot.     

WOODFUEL - A TIME FOR RE-ASSESSMENT

Official statistics and surveys show that woodfuel is the dominant end-use of forest products especially in developing countries. This paper examines the end-use pattern and per capita consumption figures for selected developing countries. In terms of total energy requirements woodfuel, a renewable resource, is the third most important fuel after oil and coal, but may be the primary fuel in terms of number of actual consumers. The future consumption pattern is estimated for the developing and developed countries and it is anticipated that total woodfuel consumption may increase by about 2 per cent per year at least until the year 2000. The supply position shows that while present consumption of all forest products is more or less in balance with the increment of the growing stock, in certain areas the forest capital is being depleted to meet demand. Total demand is likely to double by the turn of the century. Therefore, plantations, especially of fuelwood, will have to be established if the growing stock is not to be depleted and if an energy crisis in developing countries is to be averted.     

Developments and prospects of world lead and zinc mining

World developments in lead and zinc are examined for 1970-90 and projections presented for 1995. Although lead consumption has Increased during the period under review, lead mine production has been on a decline, the differences being made up from secondary lead sources. Lead mine production is projected to be steady to 1995, with increased consumption continuing to be met from secondary sources. Zinc mine production increased at a trend rate of about 1% per year between 1970 and 1990, but for 1991-95, production is expected to grow at a lower rate. For 1990-95 zinc consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 2.3%. This modest mine production increase to 1995 is unlikely to be adequate to meet growth in MEC zinc consumption.     

An assessment of Spain's Programa AGUA and its implications for sustainable water management in the province of Almería, southeast Spain

Spain's Programa AGUA was proposed in 2004 as a replacement for the Spanish National Hydrological Plan and represented a fundamental policy shift in national water management from large inter-basin water transfers to a commitment to desalination. Twenty-one desalination facilities are planned for six provinces on the Spanish Mediterranean coast to supplement their water needs. These include the province of Almería that for the last 30 years has endured a net water abstraction overdraft leading to serious reservoir depletion and groundwater imbalances. Rising water use is a result of increasing demand to support irrigated agriculture (e.g. greenhouse horticulture) and for domestic needs (e.g. rapid urban growth and tourism development), which has led observers to question Almería's long-term water sustainability. Desalinated water alone is unlikely to be sufficient to make up these water deficits and water-users will have to accept a move to full-price water recovery by 2010 under the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive of which Spain is a signatory. Anticipated water efficiencies resulting from higher water tariffs, increasing water reuse and water infrastructure improvements (including inter-basin transfers), in conjunction with increasing use of desalinated water, are expected to address the province's current water overdraft. However, Almería will need to balance its planned initiatives against long-term estimates of projected agricultural and domestic development and the environmental consequences of adopting a desalination-supported water future.     

Conflicting energy and environmental policies: The portsmouth oil refinery

This case study presents the series of decision-making processes surrounding a current environmental issue—the Portsmouth oil refinery in Virginia. Crude oil must be refined before it can be used as fuel. Additionally, some oil must be desulfurized for use other than as gasoline. In 1977, the nation imported about one million barrels of oil a day. Although the US Department of Energy has emphasized the critical need for greater east coast refinery capability, the east coast is to supply only 25% of its refined oil needs. In the same year, the east coast met its demands for petroleum products from three sources: (a) refinery production, 22.7%, (b) product imports, 28.0%, and (c) products from the Gulf Coast, 49.3%.¹ The energy program after the Arab oil embargo has an objective of encouraging the construction of oil refineries and petrochemical plants in the United States rather than abroad. The tariff is higher on imports of refined oil products than of crude oil, and new refineries are allowed to import a large proportion of their requirements tarifffree.The US federal government does not directly regulate the locations for oil refineries or methods of desulfurization. The oil import program, however, does influence decisions concerning location of desulfurization facilities and refineries, and air and water pollution standards affect methods of refining, besides making desulfurization necessary.The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Department of Defense.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Future carbon balance of China's forests under climate change and increasing CO2

The possible response of the carbon (C) balance of China's forests to an increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration and climate change was investigated through a series of simulations using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model, which explicitly represents the effects of climate, CO(2) concentration, and nitrogen deposition on future C sequestration by forests. Two climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2 and -B2) were used to drive the model. Simulations showed that China's forests were a C sink in the 1990 s, averaging 189 Tg C yr(-1) (about 13% of the global total). This sink peaks around 2020 and then gradually declines to 33.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100 without climate and CO(2) changes. Effects of pure climate change of CGCM2-A2 and -B2 without allowing CO(2) effects on C assimilation in plants might reduce the average net primary productivity (NPP) of China's forests by 29% and 18% during 2091-2100, respectively. Total soil C stocks might decrease by 16% and 11% during this period. China's forests might broadly act as C sources during 2091-2100, with values of about 50 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the moderate warming of CGCM2-B2 and 50-200 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the warmer scenario of CGCM2-A2. An increase in CO(2) might broadly increase future C sequestration of China's forests. However, this CO(2) fertilization effect might decline with time. The CO(2) fertilization effects on NPP by the end of this century are 349.6 and 241.7 Tg C yr(-1) under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. These effects increase by 199.1 and 126.6 Tg C yr(-1) in the first 50 years, and thereafter, by 150.5 and 115.1 Tg C yr(-1) in the second 50 years under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. Under a CO(2) increase without climate change, the majority of China's forests would be C sinks during 2091-2100, ranging from 0 to 100 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). The positive effect of CO(2) fertilization on NPP and net ecosystem productivity would be exceeded by the negative effect of climate change after 2050. Under the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests may be a small C source of 7.6 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100. Most forests act as C sources of 0-40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Under the CGCM2-B2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests might be a small C sink of 10.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100, with C sequestration of most forests ranging from 0 to 40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Stand age structure plays a more dominant role in determining future C sequestration than CO(2) and climate change. The prediction of future C sequestration of China's forests is very sensitive to the Q(10) value used to estimate maintenance respiration and to soil water availability and less sensitive to N deposition scenario. The results are not yet comprehensive, as no forest disturbance data were available or predicted after 2001. However, the results indicate a range of possible responses of the C balance of China's forests to various scenarios of increase in CO(2) and climate change. These results could be useful for assessing measures to mitigate climate change through reforestation.     

Energy Conservation in Rapid-Growth Economies of Asia

Energy demand, including demand for petroleum, is expected to increase at a faster rate in the rapidly-developing nations of East and Southeast Asia than elsewhere in the world through the turn of the century. In the aggregate, the countries of this region are heavily dependent on imported oil, coal and natural gas. Rapid industrialization, electrification and increased consumer demand for energy-consuming durable goods and housing underlie the expected strong growth in energy consumption. Substantial scope for greater economy in energy-use exists in the industrial and transport sectors but effects in these areas will require effective management and institutional support in addition to getting prices right. In the context of balance of payments and external debt considerations, and the continued growth of energy consumption in East and Southeast Asia, improving energy conservation will be of great importance in lessening the likelihood that future economic development will be constrained by energy problems.