极端天气损失：保险业创高纪录

受飓风、台风和其他与天气相关的自然灾害的影响，2004年是全球保险业历史上最昂贵的一年．在12月6日到17日在布宜诺斯艾利斯气候变化公约COP-10公布的数字显示，在2004年的前十个月中，保险业在自然灾害方面的支出超过了350亿美元，而2003年为160亿美元．这还是圣诞节后印度洋海底地震和海啸发生之前的数字．     

保险业对气候变化威胁的反应

保险业正在迅速认识温室效应人为增强对其未来市场安全造成的威胁．这在很大程度上是由于近年来由风暴和与旱灾有关的大火灾造成的损失的可疑升级．联想到最坏情况分析对全球变暖未来的恐惧，伦敦、苏黎世、慕尼黑、东京和纽约的工业界高级人物已经谈到了保险业全面崩溃的可能性．这样一种突发事变会对很多经济活动领域产生不良后果．在迄今为止的气候变化论战中很少探讨或评价这些后果．同时，在一些发展中国家中，灾害保险业务的撤消已经在威胁着发展．     

论现阶段我国城市化的道路选择及政策取向

通过我国城市化现状的分析，结合我国具体国情，具体提出相当一段时期内我国城市化道路的选择：大、中、小不同城市协调发展、整体推进；东、中、西不同经济发展地带区别对待，体现层次．同时，还要求相应的政策、制度、法规等及时跟上，加快城市化步伐．     

中小企业财务管理存在的问题与战略对策

中小企业是国民经济中一支重要的经济力量，在我国发展社会主义市场经济中发挥着重要的作用．财务问题是所有企业成败的关键，对中小企业尤其如此．本文从简述我国现阶段中小企业财务管理现状人手，揭示当前中小企业财务管理存在的问题．结合实际，分析其发生、存在的原因，并为解决这些问题，提出了相应的战略对策．     

论高等职业教育及其自身体系的完善--本科层次教育的思考

长期以来，我国专科层次的高等职业教育适应地方经济发展的需要，无论在规模，还是结构、质量方面都获得了长足发展．但随着社会主义市场经济的确立，科学技术的迅猛发展，社会对人才的素质、能力、层次的要求越来越高．相应，对教育层次的需求也随之提升．因此，发展四年制本科层次高职教育已成为一种必然和迫切需要．文章就实现本科层次高职教育的客观趋势及其选择模式提出了初步设想．     

土壤可蚀性（K）值图编制方法的初步研究

利用土壤普查图件和剖面理化分析的成果资料编制了土壤可蚀性（Ｋ）值图，介绍了求取剖面点Ｋ值的查图表法、图斑分并与图斑Ｋ值的确定原则和编制程序等，应用上述方法，完成了我国第一张地区级Ｋ值图，经分析，与公式算法比，查图表法的Ｋ值精度为８５．４％，与径流小区实测值比，用Ｋ值图上相应Ｋ值监测的土壤年流失量的精度为８６．０％。     

高校计算机专业教育教学中存在的问题及教育对策

个别高校计算机教育和教学中存在极少数学生厌学混学、基本技能较差、文凭含金量不足等问题．其深层次的原因涉及生源质量、课程设置、设备投入、师资水平、考试制度等方面．高校应完善相应制度，增大执行力度，辅之以高科技手段加以解决．     

公民社会的兴起与德育的发展

随着改革开放的深入和市场经济的发展，公民社会正在我国逐渐兴起．与此相应，传统的泛政治化的德育也须进行相应的转变，从单纯的政治教育向多样化的公民教育发展，从单向灌输向多渠道的疏导发展，从封闭教育向开放教育发展，从过高的理想目标向注重现实道德的践履发展，从强调绝对服从向培养公民的独立自主人格和平等自由观念发展．     

牛蛙入侵新案例与管理对策分析

牛蛙是ISSG／SSC公布的100种最危险的入侵种之一，也是进入我国最早、分布最广和危害最大的外来两栖动物．1980年以后，由于野外放养和人工驯养地区的迅速扩大，野化种群的数量增加很快，对土著蛙类和农田生态系统的稳定形成了严重威胁．本文依据近年来发现的3个新案例，初步分析了牛蛙在我国的分布状况和牛蛙成功入侵我国的主要原因，以及牛蛙在生物链中的位置和危害，并提出了3条相应的管理对策．图1表2参18     

土壤可蚀性（K）值图编制方法的初步研究

利用土壤普查图件和剖面理化分析的成果资料编制了土壤可蚀性（Ｋ）值图，介绍了求取剖面点Ｋ值的查图表法，图斑分并与图斑Ｋ值的确定原则和编制程序等。应用上述方法，完成了我国第一张地区级Ｋ值图。经分析，与公式算法比，查图表法的Ｋ值精度为８５．４％，与径流小区实测值比，用Ｋ值图上相应Ｋ值监测的土壤年流失量的精度为８６．０％。     

An empirical evaluation of the insurance hypothesis in diversity-stability models

An important stabilizing mechanism in most diversity stability models is the insurance hypothesis, which involves correlation/covariance relationships among species. These models require that species do not fluctuate synchronously over time: that is, the correlation between pairs of species does not equal 1.0. However, the strength of this stabilizing mechanism increases as correlations decline away from 1.0, especially as they become more negative and also as the summed covariance across all species pairs becomes more negative. We evaluated the importance of the insurance hypothesis as a stabilizing mechanism by examining a variety of terrestrial assemblages using long-term data from the Global Population Dynamics Database, the Breeding Bird Survey, and a long-term site in southeastern Arizona, USA. We identified co-occurring assemblages of species and calculated the Spearman rank correlations of all pairs of species and the summed covariance of the entire assemblage. We found that, in most assemblages, positive correlations were two to three times more common than negative and that the magnitude of the positive correlations tended to be stronger than the negative correlations. For all but three assemblages, the summed covariance was positive. Data from larger spatial scales tended to exhibit more positive correlations, but even at the smallest spatial scales, positive correlations outnumbered negative. We suggest that species often covary positively because coexisting species respond similarly to fluctuations in their resource base driven by climatic fluctuations. As such, our review suggests that the insurance hypothesis may not be a strong mechanism stabilizing fluctuations in natural terrestrial communities.     

A GIS-Based Comparison of the Mexican National and IUCN Methods for Determining Extinction Risk

Abstract:  The national systems used in the evaluation of extinction risk are often touted as more readily applied and somehow more regionally appropriate than the system of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). We compared risk assessments of the Mexican national system (method for evaluation of risk of extinction of wild species [MER]) with the IUCN system for the 16 Polianthes taxa (Agavaceae), a genus of plants with marked variation in distribution sizes. We used a novel combination of herbarium data, geographic information systems (GIS), and species distribution models to provide rapid, repeatable estimates of extinction risk. Our GIS method showed that the MER and the IUCN system use similar data. Our comparison illustrates how the IUCN method can be applied even when all desirable data are not available, and that the MER offers no special regional advantage with respect to the IUCN regional system. Instead, our results coincided, with both systems identifying 14 taxa of conservation concern and the remaining two taxa of low risk, largely because both systems use similar information. An obstacle for the application of the MER is that there are no standards for quantifying the criteria of habitat condition and intrinsic biological vulnerability. If these impossible-to-quantify criteria are left out, what are left are geographical distribution and the impact of human activity, essentially the considerations we were able to assess for the IUCN method. Our method has the advantage of making the IUCN criteria easy to apply, and because each step can be standardized between studies, it ensures greater comparability of extinction risk estimates among taxa.     

Sequential polyandry affords post-mating sexual selection in the mouths of cichlid females

Females mating with multiple males may obtain direct benefits such as nuptial gifts or paternal care or indirect (i.e. genetic) benefits resulting in higher-quality offspring. While direct benefits are easily identified, it is difficult to determine indirect benefits, and it is hence largely unclear how they are obtained. This is particularly true in species with external fertilisation, where females seem to have little control over fertilisation. In cichlids, most maternal mouthbrooders show sequential multiple mating, where females visit several males for egg deposition. Genetic data revealed that multiple paternity of eggs and young in the mouth of females is common, but behavioural data of female spawning decisions are missing. Here, we test four hypotheses to explain female multiple mating in the maternally mouthbrooding cichlid, Ophthalmotilapia ventralis: (1) fertilisation insurance, (2) genetic bet-hedging, (3) female choice and (4) ‘sperm shopping’ (i.e. induction of sperm competition resulting in sexually selected sperm). Detailed observations of spawning behaviour in the field combined with histological analyses of the male reproductive organs suggest that fertilisation insurance, genetic bet-hedging and pre-mating female choice are unlikely to explain the sequential female multiple mating in O. ventralis. Instead, cryptic female choice by sperm shopping, i.e. post-mating sexual selection, is most compatible with our data and might be the major ultimate cause of multiple mating in females of this species and of mouthbrooding cichlids with maternal care in general. Our study provides new insight into ultimate causes of sequential polyandry in species with external fertilisation, as hitherto post-mating sexual selection by cryptic female choice has been assumed to be incompatible with external fertilisation mechanisms except by components of the ovarian fluid.     

刍议医院资产管理的现状及其对策

医院的固定资产和流动资产是医院赖以生存和发展的基础,是一项非经营性国有资产．目前公立医院固定资产、流动资产管理现状不容乐观,针对这种状况,首先分析问题形成的原因,然后提出管理的措施或建议,从而使资产管理工作规范化、制度化、科学化,使有限的卫生资源发挥出最大的社会效益和经济效益．参3．     

Building on IUCN Regional Red Lists to Produce Lists of Species of Conservation Priority: a Model with Irish Bees

Abstract:  A World Conservation Union (IUCN) regional red list is an objective assessment of regional extinction risk and is not the same as a list of conservation priority species. Recent research reveals the widespread, but incorrect, assumption that IUCN Red List categories represent a hierarchical list of priorities for conservation action. We developed a simple eight-step priority-setting process and applied it to the conservation of bees in Ireland. Our model is based on the national red list but also considers the global significance of the national population; the conservation status at global, continental, and regional levels; key biological, economic, and societal factors; and is compatible with existing conservation agreements and legislation. Throughout Ireland, almost one-third of the bee fauna is threatened (30 of 100 species), but our methodology resulted in a reduced list of only 17 priority species. We did not use the priority species list to broadly categorize species to the conservation action required; instead, we indicated the individual action required for all threatened, near-threatened, and data-deficient species on the national red list based on the IUCN's conservation-actions template file. Priority species lists will strongly influence prioritization of conservation actions at national levels, but action should not be exclusive to listed species. In addition, all species on this list will not necessarily require immediate action. Our method is transparent, reproducible, and readily applicable to other taxa and regions.     

Ex situ management as insurance against extinction of mammalian megafauna in an uncertain world

The persistence of endangered species may depend on the fate of a very small number of individual animals. In situ conservation alone may sometimes be insufficient. In these instances, the International Union for Conservation of Nature provides guidelines for ex situ conservation and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) indicates how ex situ management can support the CBD's objectives by providing insurance policies for species. The circumstances that justify its use are uncertain. To evaluate the current in situ extinction risk and ex situ management of 43 critically endangered species of mammalian megafauna, we used nonmetric multidimensional scaling and geopolitical variables related to governance, economics, and national policy within their extant ranges. We then fitted generalized additive models to assess the contribution of each variable to the ordination. Fifteen (almost one-third) of the world's terrestrial mammalian megafauna are not the subject of any ex situ management. Seventy-three percent of these taxa occur in areas characterized by political uncertainty, such as border zones or areas affected by armed conflicts, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. A further 23% of taxa in ex situ programs do not meet sustainability criteria for inbreeding avoidance. Strategic conservation planning, such as the One Plan approach, may improve ex situ management for these taxa. Given the escalating trend in threats afflicting megafauna, ex situ management should be considered more rigorously, particularly in politically unstable regions, to achieve CBD Target 12 (prevent extinction of threatened species).     

Aligning the logics of inquiry and action to address the biodiversity crisis

Despite an abundance of research reaffirming biodiversity's importance to the health of the planet and society, species continue to go extinct at an alarming rate. Why has continued research on the value of biodiversity not had the intended effect and what can be done about it? We considered biodiversity loss as a public value failure and the result of a misalignment between the logic of inquiry (which guides scientists) and the logic of action (which guides practitioners). We drew lessons from our own research to propose the creation of a national biodiversity strategy designed to link the logic of inquiry with the logic of action and coordinate the production of actionable conservation science and informed conservation action.     

Technical efficiency analysis of the conversion of cropland to forestland program in Jiangxi,Shaanxi, and Sichuan

Conversion of Cropland to Forestland Program (CCFP) has greatly impacted China’s agricultural sector, and more specifically rural farmers. While changes in living standards as a result of the implementation of the CCFP have been analyzed, little research has been conducted regarding the impacts of such policies on farming operations. As agriculture contributes nearly 10% of national GDP, it is important to analyze the implications of policies on a national industry. An input-oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was used to examine the technical efficiency of farming operations following implementation of the CCFP, using survey data from farmers in Jiangxi, Shaanxi, and Sichuan provinces. Additionally, the impact of factors such as urbanization, age and education, and land fragmentation was examined with respect to farming operational efficiency. Scale inefficiency was found to have the greatest effect on overall inefficiency in farming operations in comparison to pure technical inefficiency, which was largely influenced by the presence and degree of land fragmentation of land holdings. Findings can be used to inform national land-use policies facilitating land fragmentation in China and address gaps in existing broader level studies that utilize non-parametric approaches to examine the technical efficiency of Chinese farmers affected by the CCFP.     

中国城市绿化评价系统比较分析

城市绿化在城市环境建设中起着至关重要的作用。为衡量城市绿化建设的水平和指导城市规划,有必要建立科学的绿化评价体系。分析和比较了中国现有的4种国家级城市绿化评价体系：国家园林城市标准、全国绿化模范城市标准、国家森林城市标准和国家生态园林城市标准,并从易得性、可比性、简易性、客观性等4个方面对具体的指标进行了分析。4种绿化...