Public Investment and Environrnental Sustainability of Agricultural Production in China

The excessive application of fertilizer and pesticides in grain production in China has posed a threat to the environrnental sustainability of agricultural production. One of the major reasons of the increasing usage of chemical inputs by farmers is their trying to reach higher yields, especially in absence of adequate public inputs, such as development and extension of appropriate technology and necessary production infrastructure, etc. Based on the cropspecific data of the past 20 years, this paper examines how the public investments in agricultural researches could impact on the reduction of farmers' private material inputs of major grain crops in China. It manifests that the increased investments in public sector, especially in agricultural researches, is a favorable and effective way to reduce farmers' private material inputs and should be given a priority consideration in the policy emendation to increase yields and improve production sustainability.     

Public Investment and Environmental Sustainability of Agricultural Production in China

Abstract

The excessive application of fertilizer and pesticides in grain production in China has posed a threat to the environmental sustainability of agricultural production. One of the major reasons of the increasing usage of chemical inputs by farmers is their trying to reach higher yields, especially In absence of adequate public inputs, such as development and extension of appropriate technology and necessary production infrastructure, etc. Based on the crop-specific data of the past 20 years, this paper examines how the public Investments in agricultural researches could impact on the reduction of farmers' private material inputs of major grain crops in China. It manifests that the increased investments in public sector, especially in agricultural researches, is a favorable and effective way to reduce farmers' private material inputs and should be given a priority consideration in the policy emendation to increase yields and improve production sustainability.     

农地流转背景下地块规模对农户种粮投入影响分析

近年来粮食安全受到国家和社会的广泛关注,农地投入作为粮食生产的重要要素,是保障粮食稳定产出的前提。学者就农地规模对农户种粮投入的影响已进行了较多研究,但受农地流转的影响,土地要素更具多样化,土地规模与农户种粮投入的关系发生变化。随着农地流转在我国的快速发展,探析农地流转影响下土地规模对农户种粮投入影响的变化成为一个亟待研究的问题,对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。考虑到地块的异质性,本文基于山东、河南、安徽三个粮食主产省622户农户1 284个地块的粮食生产数据从村庄和农户两个层次控制了生产要素市场价格、地块要素等非主观因素,进行多层模型回归分析。结果表明,农地流转特征及地块特征对农户粮食生产单位面积投入有显著影响。地块规模和转入地占比对农地投入影响为负,转入地占比越大,地权稳定性越低,农户投入积极性受到挫伤越明显,在转入地上的投入减少。随着转入土地面积的增加,农户从事粮食生产的机会成本增大,使其有更强的动力增加种粮投入,地块规模的负向影响程度降低。基于分析结果,本文得出以下3点结论:(1)规模化经营有利于降低单位面积种粮成本;(2)农地流转发生时,地块规模对种粮投入的影响发生改变,成片规模化经营将成为我国粮食生产的必然趋势;(3)提高土地综合条件可以降低投入成本,并提高农户投入积极性。要保障国家粮食安全,需从降低种粮成本、提高农户收益着手,建议鼓励农村土地流转,推动粮食规模化生产,同时也要注重增加财政拨款,建设高标准粮田,强化高标准粮田的农业基础设施建设,完善田间配套工程。     

Recent patterns of production for the main cereal grains: implications for food security in China

China’s large population and deteriorating environment have created great concern related to the sustainability of food production, especially since details related to this topic remain poorly studied. Thus, an integrated analysis of both crop yield and cultivated area is essential for gaining a better understanding of cereal grain production in China and for making corresponding policies designed to achieve food security. In this study, we adopt trend analysis of both provincial yield and cultivated area to assess the subsequent provincial-level cereal production sustainability between 1980 and 2011 with the goal of providing a better understanding of regional agricultural development. The results indicate that while maize shows the most promise for yield improvement, rice and wheat production is experiencing substantial yield stagnation among most provinces across mainland China. In addition, the trends in spatial patterns are prominently different from those of yields. The sizes of the main rice- and wheat-growing areas in China have declined greatly, suggesting that the related production of these cereals should attract more attention from land management planners and farmers. Specifically, the south-eastern coastal provinces have largely failed to sustain both crop yield and area, while the north-eastern provinces have witnessed thriving agricultural production during the last three decades. Moreover, we find that cereal production in China is significantly affected by governmental policies related to the agricultural sector. Thus, this analysis of food production in China will help policymakers to better understand how the potential implications of food security in China may be applicable to countries worldwide.     

中国种植业产品贸易自由化对环境影响的计量经济分析

入世后．中国将根据WTO的要求对农业贸易相关政策进行调整和改革，这将改变国内农业生产，进而影响到农村生态环境。在此背景下．本文首先界定了种檀业产品贸易自由化的涵义．并对其环境影响途径进行分析．然后利用计量经济方法着重分析了贸易自由化对国内种植业生产中化肥、农药使用的影响。研究结果表明，在种植业产品的贸易自由化中，进口渗透作用对缓解国内化肥、农药污染影响显着．而出口导向作用影响不明显。文章最后给出了减缓农产品贸易自由化的不利影响，发挥其有利影响的政策建议。     

我国营养体产业发展及种植业结构调整

本文根据我国气候的基本特征,提出了发展营养体产业是高效利用我国土地资源和气候资源的有效途径的观点,比较了营养体产业和传统农业在光能利用和产量等方面的差别,指出了营养体产业和技术关键是科学利用Ｓ－型生长曲线。     

我国粮食安全保障中改善农业环境的途径

本文分析了我国粮食安全及粮食持续生产所依托的农业环境状况。从我国粮食生产状况与经济发展水平看,全国粮食生产处于结构性过剩与低水平安全中,区域性粮食安全与不安全并存;耕地资源、水资源以及农民的经济收入状况等均不容乐观,加之自然灾害加重,粮食生产的环境成本将随之增加,这将影响我国未来粮食安全。为此,本文提出了走农业集约化道路是解决我国粮食安全与改善环境的基本途径。     

退耕还林(草)的生态补偿机制完善研究——以西部黄土高原地区为例

生态补偿措施是退耕还林（草）工程顺利进行的重要保障。以退耕还林（草）在黄土高原地区的实施情况为例，通过问卷调查，应用生态经济学的相关理论进行分析，认为应从以下几个方面完善退耕还林（草）工程的生态补偿机制：首先，建立退耕还林（草）的补偿组织体系；其次。以退耕还林（草）所造成的农民机会成本的损失来确定补偿标准。根据工程的进程和资金的投入情况．可将生态补偿划分为基本补偿、产业结构调整补偿和生态效益外溢补偿三个阶段；第三，根据产业结构调整取得显著成效所需的时间来确定补偿年限；最后提出退耕还林（草）的补偿方式及可能的资金渠道来源。生态补偿计量方法的研究将是今后研究的重点和难点。     

Soil Fertility Quality and Agricultural Sustainable Development in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China

The black soil in northeast China is considered one of the most fertile soils in China. Consequently, the black soil region has become one of the most important regions for cereal grain production in China. Agriculture has developed rapidly since the early part of the nineteenth century. To date, approximately 70 percent of total land in the area is cultivated. Even though the agricultural production in this region is increasing continuously, some soil fertility quality problems have become serious. This is hampering agricultural development and sustainability in the region. A brief history of population growth and agricultural development in the region is presented. Major soil quality problems, particularly soil degradation and soil erosion, are analyzed. Based on studies, suggestions for improving soil quality and for promoting sustainable agricultural development in the region are presented. These suggestions include improving agricultural landscape patterns, developing conservation cultivation, promoting combinations of crop production with combinations of forestry and animal husbandry, and implementing integrated management for soil and water conservation.     

A Multi-Criteria Analysis of Sustainability Effects of Increasing Concentrate Intensity in Swedish Milk Production 1989–1999

The concept of sustainable development is forcing standard economic analysis to acknowledge and address the existence of dimensions of performance, which are not reducible to monetary accounting. In particular, the implementation of this concept in practice requires: (a) the simultaneous handling of indicators developed in different disciplinary fields; and (b) an approach more related to the procedures adopted by consultants (Participatory Integrated Analysis), rather than theoretical academic analysis looking for ‘the’ optimal solution. The case study considered in this paper is a multi-criteria analysis of changes, which occurred in the Swedish milk production sector for the period 1989–1999. Multi-criteria impact matrices and multi-criteria representations are used to provide a transparent method of integrated analysis. Changes are characterized and quantified in a way that makes it possible to relate the impact of existing trends in relation to different sub-objectives (variation in performance in relation to social, economic and ecological indicators). The results of this analysis confirm a few well known predicaments of sustainability associated with agriculture. The growth of Sweden economy is driving a major increase in material throughputs within its agricultural sector. The need of increasing agricultural throughput (especially labour productivity) has moved the Swedish dairy sector in a clear situation of decreasing marginal return ( = large increases in inputs are not reflected in a proportional increase in output). Therefore, sound policies of development of this sector aimed at increasing the goal of sustainability have to be developed by considering several indicators of performance, and not only economic variables.     

甘肃省农民负担现状调查与减负对策研究

为全面调查甘肃省农民负担的真实情况，从根本上解决农民负担问题，本研究通过抽样调查、半结构访谈（SSI）、问卷调查及跟踪访谈等方法，于2002年1月-2004年12月对甘肃省10个县400户农民进行了跟踪调查，获得了甘肃省2002年有关农户收入、支出和农业税费方面的20多万条数据和信息。并以此数据和信息为依据，对甘肃不同地域、不同生产条件下农户的总收入、总支出、生产生活状况。特别是农民负担状况进行了全面分析。研究结论表明，只有从政策体制方面解决农民负担问题，并及时解决税费改革中的旧有矛盾（财政收支、教育投入）和新出现的矛盾（村级收支、财政转移支付），由中央财政支付县、乡、村三级干部的工资待遇，加大对中西部地区农村义务教育的财政支持力度，减缓中西部地区因为农村义务教育的经费不足造成农民负担进一步加剧的问题，保证财政转移支付到位。加强转移支付过程的监管力度，保证资金有效应用。同时明确以法律规定消除农村中小学的合理性收费以外的任何其他收费。只有政府颁布、实施切实可行的政策或法律，才能从根本上解决农民的负担问题。     

农地整理项目农户耕地损失补偿额度的实证研究——基于耕地资源价值与农户受偿意愿

从耕地资源价值出发,测算农地整理项目农户耕地损失补偿额度,并基于湖北省孝感市和潜江市的农户调查数据分析农户的受偿意愿及其影响因素。研究表明:基于耕地资源价值体系,测算得到孝感市和潜江市农地整理项目农户耕地损失补偿额度分别为1 449 695.76、1 784 296.17元/hm~2;农户所期望得到的耕地损失补偿标准远低于耕地资源价值体系测算出来的理论值,两市农户对耕地损失的平均受偿意愿额度为336 197.95元/hm~2,可以农户受偿意愿为主、耕地农业生产价值和社会保障价值为辅,制定农地整理项目农户耕地损失补偿标准;受教育程度对补偿标准有显著负向影响,农户文化程度的提高有助于提高其对农地整理事业的认知程度,进而促进我国农地整理事业的发展;土地权属调整是解决农户耕地损失的一项重要措施,做好农地整理项目土地权属调整工作需充分尊重农户的意愿,并以农业现代化作为土地权属调整的目标。     

安徽省粮食生产的主成分分析及其趋势预测

采用安徽省1978～2010年的相关社会经济统计资料为基础数据,在对33 a来粮食动态变化的定量定性分析基础上,利用主成分分析方法探讨了区域粮食生产的影响因子。然后根据安徽33 a粮食总产量的历史数据,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对安徽省未来20 a（2011～2030年）的粮食产量进行中长期的模拟预测,以期为相关部门粮食生产决策提供科学依据。研究表明：(1)1978～2010年,安徽省粮食生产在波动中增长,粮食总产量和人均粮食产量曲线的动态变化基本吻合。（2）影响粮食生产的3个主要成分分别是社会经济发展水平、农业生产成本和粮食作物播种面积。（3）粮食生产在2011～2030年将保持平稳增长的良性发展态势,2030年粮食预测产量达到4 119万t,比2010年增长了1 039万t,年均增长15%。〖HJ1〗〖HJ〗     

基于计划行为理论的耕地面源污染治理农户参与意愿研究 ——以湘阴县为例

耕地面源污染治理是新时代建设美丽中国、建设美丽乡村的重要举措，更是提高耕地质量，保障地区农业生产可持续发展和实现生态健康的必要环节。首先，基于计划行为理论从理论上分析农户参与耕地面源污染治理的意愿及行为机理，进而利用洞庭湖南岸粮食主产县湘阴县农户入户调查数据，运用二元Logistic模型、主成分分析法进行实证检验。研究结果显示：调查区域仅有61.29%的受访农户愿意参与耕地面源污染治理；参与面源污染治理收益增加度、参与面源污染治理改善周边环境、农技人员影响力、参与面源污染治理的精力能力、当过村干部等因素对耕地面源污染治理农户参与意愿均呈显著正向影响；而农户年龄对耕地面源污染治理农户参与意愿为显著负向影响。据此，在耕地面源污染治理过程中，地方政府应加强耕地面源污染治理政策宣传及农技人员技术指导，充分发挥村干部的模范作用，增强农户治理耕地面源污染的主体意识，提升农户治理效能感及社会责任感，切实保障农户利益，引导农户主动积极参与耕地面源污染治理，建设美丽生态洞庭。     

小尺度上蜜蜂传粉服务与耕地利用集约水平之间权衡关系研究

传粉作为重要的生态系统服务之一,对维持野生植物群落和粮食生产至关重要。近年来随着全球农业投入迅速增加,耕地利用集约化程度大幅提高,昆虫传粉能力受到严重影响。由于全世界约2/3的主要粮食作物依赖传粉服务,因此传粉服务的下降将威胁着全球粮食安全。然而,传粉服务与耕地利用集约水平的相互关系有待在全球各地区进行进一步验证,尤其在中国这种农业大国。以鄱阳湖滨湖区典型村落为研究对象,基于高精度土地利用数据、传粉蜜蜂生物物理数据、区域社会经济以及实地调研数据,采用InVEST模型、GIS分析工具、数理统计和回归分析方法。定量揭示小尺度上耕地集约利用与蜜蜂传粉服务之间的权衡关系。结果显示:(1)研究村落2000年和2013年蜜蜂传粉服务丰度平均值分别为0. 127和0. 108,期间下降幅度为15. 50%。总体上,研究村落蜜蜂传粉服务有较明显的削弱。(2)受退耕还林、退田还湖以及耕地撂荒等因素的综合影响,研究村落耕地利用区域减少了37. 66 hm~2,约占村落土地总面积的13. 55%。但由于农药、化肥、机械以及劳动力等投入的增加,该村各耕地利用类型的集约度分值均有大幅度提高,增幅均高达2倍以上。(3)耕地利用集约度变化与蜜蜂传粉服务变化回归系数为-0. 164,两者呈负相关关系,也即两者之间存在此消彼长的权衡关系。研究村落耕地利用集约度的提高削弱了蜜蜂传粉服务功能。     

湖北省粮食生产的时空特征演变研究——基于耕地因素分解的视角

"藏粮于地"是新时期保障我国粮食安全的重要战略。分析湖北省粮食生产的时空演变特征,运用LMDI方法对影响粮食产量的耕地利用因素进行分解。结果表明:湖北粮食生产正处于稳定增长时期,但其周期性波动特征并未改变,粮食产量大幅波动的可能性仍然存在;湖北省粮食生产具有明显的中间高,两边低的区位特征;单产提高与复种指数上升是粮食增产的主要因素,种植业结构调整与耕地资源减少导致了粮食减产;由于自然环境与社会经济发展差异,不同区域种植业结构调整的程度与方向、耕地资源的利用方式都不相同。加强耕地资源保护,确保耕地数量不减少,质量不降低;调整耕地利用方式,合理安排耕作制度,优化种植业结构和区域布局;推进农业科技创新,培养新型职业农民,建立稳定的粮食生产队伍是实施"藏粮于地,藏粮于技"战略的有效途径。     

粮食安全：我国农业现代化的任务与标志

解决10多亿人吃饭问题是我国农业第一主题,是农业现代化的首要任务,而粮食安全水平是我国农业现代化的重要标志,因此,在我国农业现代化进程中,必须强化商品粮基地建设;不断提高种粮科学技术的经济效益、粮食转化效益,保护和改善粮食生产者和主产区经济利益和经济状况,建立健全国家粮食安全保障体系,提高我国粮食安全水平。     

责任意识能激发稻农亲环境生产行为吗？——基于情境约束的调节效应

积极鼓励与推广农业亲环境生产行为，是实现我国农业绿色、可持续发展的必然选择。基于湖北省765份实地调研数据，运用有序Probit模型探讨了责任意识对稻农亲环境生产行为的影响，并进一步检验了情境约束的调节效应，以期厘清与掌握不同情境下责任意识的作用机理。结果显示：（1）稻农亲环境生产行为采纳程度较低，集中于采纳1~2项的样本为主，平均采纳数量为1.91项。（2）责任意识维度中，责任归属、责任认知对稻农亲环境生产行为均起到显著正向影响，而行为担当却起到显著负向影响。（3）村规民约能减轻行为担当对稻农亲环境生产行为的负向影响，但也会一定程度上削弱责任认知的积极作用；面对农业生态环境压力，责任归属对稻农亲环境生产行为的正向作用同样有所降低。     

粮食补贴政策与农户非农就业行为研究

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