九江市地下水易污性评价——基于DPASTIC指标的模糊综合评价模型

从污染物入渗土壤-包气带-含水层的过程出发，以地质、地貌、水文地质条件为主控因素，选取地下水埋深〖WTBX〗(D)、降雨入渗补给量(P)、含水层岩性(A)、土壤类型(S)、地形坡度(T)、非饱和带介质(I)及含水层渗透系数(C)〖WTBZ〗7个指标，建立了九江市地下水易污性评价DPASTIC指标体系。结合模糊数学理论和方法，建立了基于DPASTIC指标的模糊综合评价模型。该模型克服了指标参数级别划分定额差异和指标值不连续性变化的缺陷，寻求出最优的级别定额划分状态和指标值的连续性变化情况；在指标级别定额划分上，引用了指标标准特征值的概念，根据实测参数数据资料，建立了10个级别的指标标准特征值矩阵，确定指标参数的最优相对隶属度。结合MAPGIS软件得出最后的地下水易污性分区，评价结果与规划区的实测及预测的水环境质量相吻合。     

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 1: vulnerability assessment by multicriteria decision analysis

As highlighted in the EU Soil Communication, local contamination is one of the main soil threats and it is often related to present and past industrial activities which left a legacy of a high number of contaminated sites in Europe. These contaminated sites can be harmful to many different receptors according to their sensitivity/susceptibility to contamination, and specific vulnerability evaluations are needed in order to manage this widely spread environmental issue. In this paper a novel comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework to assess regional receptor susceptibility to contaminated site is presented. The developed methodology, which combines multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and spatial analysis, can be applied to different receptors recognized as relevant for regional assessment. In order to characterize each receptor, picked parameters significant for the estimation of the vulnerability to contaminated sites have been selected, normalized and aggregated by means of multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The developed MCDA methodology, based on the Choquet integral, allows to include expert judgments for the elicitation of synergic and conflicting effects between involved criteria and is applied to all the geographical objects representing the identified receptors. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a specific case study area in the upper Silesia region of Poland where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the environmental experts' expected results. The vulnerability assessment results indicate that groundwater is the most vulnerable receptor characterized by a wide area with vulnerability scores belonging to the highest vulnerability class. As far as the other receptors are concerned, human health and surface water are characterized by quite homogeneous vulnerability scores falling in the medium-high vulnerability classes, while protected areas resulted to be the less vulnerable receptor with only one protected area falling in the medium vulnerability class. The vulnerability assessment results will support the regional risk assessment for the ranking of potentially contaminated sites at regional scale.     

九江市地下水易污性评价——基于DPASTIC指标的模糊综合评价模型

从污染物入渗土壤-包气带-含水层的过程出发,以地质、地貌、水文地质条件为主控因素,选取地下水埋深(D)、降雨入渗补给量(P)、含水层岩性(A)、土壤类型(S)、地形坡度(T)、非饱和带介质(I)及含水层渗透系数(C)7个指标,建立了九江市地下水易污性评价DPASTIC指标体系.结合模糊数学理论和方法,建立了基于DPASTIC指标的模糊综合评价模型.该模型克服了指标参数级别划分定额差异和指标值不连续性变化的缺陷,寻求出最优的级别定额划分状态和指标值的连续性变化情况;在指标级别定额划分上,引用了指标标准特征值的概念,根据实测参数数据资料,建立了10个级别的指标标准特征值矩阵,确定指标参数的最优相对隶属度.结合MAPGIS软件得出最后的地下水易污性分区,评价结果与规划区的实测及预测的水环境质量相吻合.     

Depleted uranium residual radiological risk assessment for Kosovo sites

During the recent conflict in Yugoslavia, depleted uranium rounds were employed and were left in the battlefield. Health concern is related to the risk arising from contamination of areas in Kosovo with depleted uranium penetrators and dust. Although chemical toxicity is the most significant health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict. Uranium munitions are considered to be a source of radiological contamination of the environment. Based on measurements and estimates from the recent Balkan Task Force UNEP mission in Kosovo, we have estimated effective doses to resident populations using a well-established food-web mathematical model (RESRAD code). The UNEP mission did not find any evidence of widespread contamination in Kosovo. Rather than the actual measurements, we elected to use a desk assessment scenario (Reference Case) proposed by the UNEP group as the source term for computer simulations. Specific applications to two Kosovo sites (Planeja village and Vranovac hill) are described. Results of the simulations suggest that radiation doses from water-independent pathways are negligible (annual doses below 30 microSv). A small radiological risk is expected from contamination of the groundwater in conditions of effective leaching and low distribution coefficient of uranium metal. Under the assumptions of the Reference Case, significant radiological doses (>1 mSv/year) might be achieved after many years from the conflict through water-dependent pathways. Even in this worst-case scenario, DU radiological risk would be far overshadowed by its chemical toxicity.     

A new method for analysing socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability

This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a consequence of global environmental change. This method fills a gap in methodologies for vulnerability analysis by providing generalizations of the factors that shape vulnerability in specific socio-ecological systems and showing their spatial occurrence. The proposed method consists of four steps that include both quantitative and qualitative analyses. To start, the socio-ecological system exposed to global environmental changes that will be studied needs to be determined. This could, for example, be farmers in drylands, urban populations in coastal areas and forest-dependent people in the tropics. Next, the core dimensions that shape vulnerability in the socio-ecological system of interest need to be defined. Subsequently, a set of spatially explicit indicators that reflect these core dimensions is selected. Cluster analysis is used for grouping the indicator data. The clusters found, referred to as vulnerability profiles, describe different typical groupings of conditions and processes that create vulnerability in the socio-ecological system under study, and their spatial distribution is provided. Interpretation and verification of these profiles is the last step in the analysis. We illustrate the application of this method by analysing the patterns of vulnerability of (smallholder) farmers in drylands. We identify eight distinct vulnerability profiles in drylands that together provide a global overview of different processes taking place and sub-national detail of their distribution. By overlaying the spatial distribution of these profiles with specific outcome indicators such as conflict occurrence or migration, the method can also be used to understand these phenomena better. Analysis of vulnerability profiles will in a next step be used as a basis for identifying responses to reduce vulnerability, for example, to facilitate the transfer of best practices to reduce vulnerability between different places.     

Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in Samoa

Climate change severely impacts on the natural and socio-economic systems of the Pacific Islands. Samoa, a small insular state of the region, is characterized by widespread awareness of climate change reflected by its leading international role. This also makes Samoa a potentially exemplary reference for the Pacific Islands. Against this backdrop, the overall aim of this article is to investigate the notion of social vulnerability and measure its dimensions in Samoa through a specific index: the Samoa Social Vulnerability Index (SSVI). The SSVI may yield better understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of social vulnerability, as well as information for fostering adaptation strategies in Samoa and in the Pacific Islands. In particular, the article first outlines the major vulnerabilities to climate change in Samoa and then analyses the composite notion of social vulnerability. On this basis, the article methodologically specifies, designs and constructs the SSVI. Afterwards, it uses such index for measuring the dimensions of social vulnerability in Samoa’s districts. Finally, some considerations are made concerning the policy relevance of the SSVI and its potential regional role.     

Assessment of climate change vulnerability of tourism in Hungary

This paper applies vulnerability assessment methodology to assess the comparative vulnerability of different tourism supply types by region in Hungary. The steps of the methodology include (1) definition of tourism supply typology, (2) identifying exposure indicators, (3) identifying sensitivity indicators, (4) identification of adaptive capacity indicators and (5) developing a vulnerability map. It is clear that climate change has potential negative effects on tourism in Hungary, but the spatial distribution, as well as the sub-sectoral (by tourism supply types) differences of these impacts is almost unknown. Most research papers dealing with the vulnerability of tourism mainly focus on a specific tourism type, whereas this article aims to address all of them from a regional point of view. The key results presented in this paper include the vulnerability map of the country showing the relative vulnerability of different tourism supply types and detailed analysis investigating the possible causes and driving factors. We have categorized tourism regions based on the five most vulnerable tourism supply types. The most significant of them all turned out to be outdoor event-based tourism, being the most vulnerable in the two southern regions, since the expected impacts of climate change are foreseen to be the most significant in these areas.     

Derivation of a household-level vulnerability index for empirically testing measures of adaptive capacity and vulnerability

Recent studies have projected significant climate change impacts in Africa. In order to understand what this means in terms of human well-being at local level, we need to understand how households can cope and adapt. This need has led many authors to argue for approaches to adaptation that are based on vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability is one of the key terms in the climate change literature, but little progress has been made in the field of its quantification. Typically, indicators are combined according to a weighing scheme, with the identification of indicators and the weighing schemes based on expert judgment rather than empirical evidence. In addition, most quantitative assessments are applied to countries or other administrative units, whereas managing climate risk has traditionally been the responsibility of households. We therefore focus on the adaptive capacity of households. We analyze the coping strategies and vulnerability to climatic stresses of agro-pastoralists in Mozambique and test the validity of a number of commonly used vulnerability indicators. We derive a household-level vulnerability index based on survey data. We find that only 9 out of 26 indicators tested exhibit a statistically significant relationship with households’ vulnerability. In total, they explain about one-third of the variation in vulnerability between households, confirming the need for more research on underlying determinants and processes of vulnerability. With inclusion of local knowledge, our study findings can be used for local targeting, priority setting and resource allocation. Complemented with studies analyzing climate change impacts and findings from country-level adaptive capacity studies, governmental policy can be informed.     

Places and People: Rhetorical Constructions of “Community” in a Canadian Environmental Risk Assessment

This paper addresses the issue of public engagement in environmental risk contexts through a rhetorical analysis of the key term “community” in a risk assessment of mining-caused soil contamination. Drawing on Burke's concept of terministic screens and method of cluster criticism, the analysis shows the divergent constitutions of “community” in the Sudbury Soils Study's official discourse and the citizen-activist rhetoric of the Community Committee on the Sudbury Soils Study. Tracing the verbal and visual clusters within each organization's articulation of “community” as place and people reveals how the official Study's technical-regulatory ideology of environmental risk and citizen participation is countered by the Community Committee's contestatory environmental justice ideology. These competing views of “community” are mutually constitutive in that the official Study's mainstream risk discourse establishes the terms for the Community Committee's reactive counter-discourse, thus limiting citizen participation mainly to questions of “downstream” impacts. Our rhetorical analysis of “community” suggests a generative method for understanding the complex power relations animating specific risk communication contexts as well as for potentially reinventing “community” in terms more conducive to meaningful citizen engagement.     

后寨河流域岩溶含水层脆弱性及其对土地利用方式的响应

由于强烈的溶蚀作用,岩溶地区溶蚀裂隙、管道等高度发育,并相互贯通,形成岩溶区特有的地下、地表“双层空间”结构体系,地下空间成为地下水存储和运移的重要场所。岩溶地区由于土层浅薄或缺失,并且溶蚀裂隙、管道、落水洞、竖井等高度发育,使含水层更易受地表状况的影响,土地利用/覆被变化在很大程度上影响着地下水的水质、水量,岩溶水质的变化能集中反映人类活动胁迫下岩溶含水层脆弱性程度的增加。以典型岩溶单元--贵州普定后寨河流域为例,分析了流域水文地质背景下的岩溶含水层本质脆弱性,结合流域地下河水近20年的水化学资料,分析了含水层脆弱性对土地利用变化的响应。结果显示：土地利用/覆被变化、农业活动、城镇建设及居民活动都对地下水质变化有明显影响。因此,调整土地利用结构,恢复岩溶植被,改善生态环境是保护和改善岩溶水资源的重要途径。     

Evaluation of a model for leaf to fruit transfer of radionuclides in processing tomato plants using an independent set of data

Because of their varied possibilities of consumption, tomatoes are an important component of the human diet. This paper presents results of the evaluation of a dynamic model (Ventomod) for the short-term behaviour of radionuclides deposited on tomato plants following a direct contamination event. To check its forecasting capability in assessing the risk of radionuclide contamination of the human diet, it has been tested with an independent dataset on the leaf to fruit transfer of 134Cs in a typical Hungarian tomato variety, "Dwarf of Kecskemet". Data obtained from this pot experiment were used to evaluate model behaviour. Model constants were varied according to the differences between the Hungarian dataset and the one used to calibrate it. Results show that the model output well reproduces the observed activity of fruits for various levels of contamination and at different contamination dates. The main part of this report summarises the experimental protocol, compares the experimental results with model predictions generated by Ventomod and makes recommendations for both updating model parameters and undertaking further experimental work.     

Speciation of radionuclides - analytical challenges within environmental impact and risk assessments

The mobility, biological uptake and accumulation of radionuclides are essentially dependent on the physico-chemical form of the nuclides. As a major fraction of refractory radionuclides released during historical nuclear events is associated with particles, a key analytical challenge within environmental impact and risk assessments is to characterise radioactive particles with respect to properties influencing particle weathering, remobilisation and the subsequent ecosystem transfer of associated radionuclides. Preanalysis techniques are needed to fractionate, identify and localize individual particles in contaminated samples. To obtain information on particle characteristics such as particle size distributions, structures, elemental and radionuclide particle composition as well as oxidation state of matrix elements, solid-state speciation techniques are needed. Electron microscopy as well as X-ray microscopic techniques utilising synchrotron X-ray radiation have proved most useful in providing such information. The present paper summarises the present status on advanced techniques and presents historical sources that have contributed to radioactive particle contamination.     

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

Pollutant loads from the drainage basin to the Venice Lagoon (Italy)

In order to assess the actual pollutant loads from the drainage basin, the twelve major tributaries of the Venice Lagoon were monitored and studied in the period 1998-2000 in the framework of the DRAIN project. A specific sampling scheme was designed to investigate the effects of the different regimes, including floods, in the transport of total and dissolved metals, nitrogen and phosphorous species as well as organic micropollutants. The loads were calculated from data collected during the year of 1999, since this year displayed a value close to the mean in terms of the distribution of total rainfall on the drainage basin. The annual values for the different pollutants are reported and discussed. A comparison with the estimates of previous investigations highlights the significant advancement provided by the DRAIN project results in the understanding of the drainage basin contribution to the pollution of the lagoon. Finally, the importance of flood events on the overall balance of materials and pollutants delivered to the lagoon is emphasized.     

Vulnerability assessment within climate change and natural hazard contexts: revealing gaps and synergies through coastal applications

The climate change and natural hazard communities have developed the notion of vulnerability and associated methods for its assessment in parallel, with only limited interaction. What are the underlying reasons for this diversity; is there advantage in greater synergy? If yes, what are the pathways through which greater integration could be fostered? This paper discusses these issues using vulnerability studies in coastal areas to describe gaps between climate change and natural hazard approaches, and investigates scope for mutual learning and collaboration in the development of methodologies for vulnerability assessment. An overview of methods highlights the separation between climate change and natural hazard approaches. The main differences identified, beyond formal divergences in terminology, are linked to: process (stress vs shock), scale (temporal, functional and spatial), assessment approach (statistical vs prospective) and levels of uncertainty. We argue that the underlying source of divergence is the initial difference of purpose, one being identification of climate change adaptation pathways, the other being disaster risk reduction. In this context, the notion of vulnerability and its expression through assessment studies is the focal point connecting both domains. Indeed, the ongoing and active development of vulnerability concepts and methods have already produced some tools to help overcome common issues, such as acting in a context of high uncertainties, taking into account the dynamics and spatial scale of a social-ecological system, or gathering viewpoints from different sciences to combine human and impact-based approaches. Based on this assessment, this paper proposes concrete perspectives and possibilities to benefit from existing commonalities in the construction and application of assessment tools.     

Endocrine disrupting pesticides: implications for risk assessment

Endocrine disrupting (ED) chemicals are compounds that alter the normal functioning of the endocrine system, potentially causing disease or deformity in organisms and their offspring. Pesticides are used widely to kill unwanted organisms in crops, public areas, homes and gardens and medicinally to kill parasites. Many are proven or suspected to be EDs. Ancient physiological similarities between different vertebrate groups suggest that disorders observed in wildlife may indicate risks to humans. This makes accurate risk assessment and effective legislation difficult. In this paper, the hazardous properties of pesticides which are known to have ED properties are reviewed in order to assess the implications for risk assessment. As well as data on sources of exposure in the United Kingdom (UK) an assessment of the evidence on the health effects of ED pesticides is also included. In total, 127 have been identified from the literature and their effects and modes of action are listed in this paper. Using the UK as a case study, the types and quantities of pesticides used, and their methods of application are assessed, along with their potential pathways to humans. In the UK reliable data are available only for agricultural use, so non-agricultural routes of pesticide exposure have been poorly quantified. The exposure of people resident in or visiting rural areas could also have been grossly under-estimated. Material links between ED pesticide use and specific illnesses or deformities are complicated by the multifactorial nature of disease, which can be affected by factors such as diet. Despite these difficulties, a large body of evidence has accumulated linking specific conditions to ED pesticides in wildlife and humans. A more precautionary approach to the use of ED pesticides, especially for non-essential purposes is proposed.     

Development,local livelihoods,and vulnerabilities to global environmental change in the South American Dry Andes

Climate change will increasingly impact large areas of South America, affecting important natural resources and people’s livelihoods. These impacts will make rural people disproportionately more vulnerable, given their dependency on ecosystem services and their exposure to other stressors, such as new rules imposed by agribusiness and trends toward the commodification of natural resources. This paper focuses on the vulnerability of rural communities in Andean drylands of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, showing how different economic and political pathways lead to different levels of vulnerability. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the methodological and theoretical concept of vulnerability, which framed the research. Starting from the premise that global environmental change impacts are strongly linked to styles of development, the discussion explores the diverse institutional capital and governance schemes as well as different development styles in the case studies and their role in increasing or reducing local vulnerability to climate and water scarcity. Using a comparative perspective, the exposures and adaptive capacities of rural actors in three river basins are discussed, emphasizing situations that speak for the ways in which development styles counteract or magnify conditions of vulnerability. The analysis considers irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, water property interests, different productive structures (viticulture, horticulture, etc.), producer typologies (large/small, export, etc.), and geographical location. Finally, the paper offers some insights about development style and adaptive capacities of rural people to overcome those vulnerabilities.     

Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability X consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key question for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed.     

Fuel poverty increases risk of mould contamination,regardless of adult risk perception & ventilation in social housing properties

IntroductionFuel poverty affects 2.4 million UK homes leading to poor hygrothermal conditions and risk of mould and house dust mite contaminations, which in turn increases risk of asthma exacerbation. For the first time we assess how fuel poverty, occupants' risk perception and use of mechanical ventilation mediate the risk of mould contamination in social housing.MethodsPostal questionnaires were sent to 3867 social housing properties to collect adult risk perception, and demographic and environmental information on occupants. Participant details were linked to data pertaining to the individual properties. Multiple logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and confidence intervals while allowing for clustering of individuals coming from the same housing estate. We used Structured Equation Modelling and Goodness of Fit analysis in mediation analyses to examine the role of fuel poverty, risk perception, use of ventilation and energy efficiency.ResultsEighteen percent of our target social housing populations (671 households) were included into our study. High risk perception (score of 8–10) was associated with reduced risk of mould contamination in the bedrooms of children (OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.9) and adults (OR 0.4 95% CI; 0.3–0.7). High risk perception of living with inadequate heating and ventilation reduced the risk of mould contamination (OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.8 and OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.7, respectively). Participants living with inadequate heating and not heating due to the cost of fuel had an increased risk of mould contamination (OR 3.4 95% CI; 2.0–5.8 and OR 2.2 95% CI; 1.5–3.2, respectively). Increased risk perception and use of extractor fans did not mediate the association between fuel poverty behaviours and increased risk of mould contamination.DiscussionFuel poverty behaviours increased the risk of mould contamination, which corresponds with existing literature. For the first time we used mediation analysis to assess how this association maybe modified by occupant behaviours. Increased risk perception and use of extractor fans did not modify the association between fuel poverty and mould contamination. This suggests that fuel poor populations may not benefit from energy efficiency interventions due to ineffective heating and ventilation practices of those occupants residing participating households. Our findings may be modified by a complex interaction between occupant behaviours and the built environment. We found that participant age, occupancy, SES, pets, drying washing indoors, geographic location, architectural design/age of the property, levels of insulation and type of heating regulated risk of mould contamination.ConclusionFuel poverty behaviours affected around a third of participating households and represent a risk factor for increased exposures to damp and mouldy conditions, regardless of adult risk perception, heating and ventilation practices. This requires multidisciplinary approach to assess the complex interaction between occupant behaviours, risk perception, the built environment and the effective use of heating and ventilation practices.Study implicationsOur findings have implications for housing policies and future housing interventions. Effective communication strategies focusing on awareness and perception of risk may help address indoor air quality issues. This must be supported by improved household energy efficiency with the provision of more effective heating and ventilation strategies, specifically to help alleviate those suffering from fuel poverty.     

Understanding vulnerability in southern Africa: comparative findings using a multiple-stressor approach in South Africa and Malawi

Within southern Africa, many households are facing increasing pressures as they deal with multiple challenges such as low employment, high levels of disease, environmental resources under pressure and changing political landscapes. To respond to the needs of different individuals and households, it is important to define the nature of their vulnerability. An increasing amount of theoretical and empirical work on the concept of ‘vulnerability’ has led to a range of definitions, indicators and measurement tools, which have come to characterise this field of study. As a result, there is no one general consensus. This paper presents the results from the latest in a series of applied studies conducted since 2004 by a network of scientists working in southern Africa, aimed at refining the definition and application of the concept of vulnerability. The study employed a recently developed multiple-stressor model to guide the collection and analysis of data from three sites in South Africa and Malawi. In this paper, we identify and explore five key ‘symptoms’ of vulnerability emerging from our multi-country data and reflect on the usefulness of the model employed.