我国稀土进出口量与价格关联度状况分析

稀土是我国五大优势矿产资源之一,在我国国民经济建设中具有重要的战略意义.近年来,我国稀土矿产品进出口贸易逐年增长,而进出口价格却呈现较大幅度的波动趋势.从对我国稀土进出口总量、进出口价格走势的分析入手,利用灰色关联度模型评估稀土出口总量分别对出口价格、进口价格、进口总量的相关程度,提出了我国稀土贸易的相关建议.     

Assessing Health Benefits of Controlling Air Pollution from Power Generation: The Case of a Lignite-Fired Power Plant in Thailand

The impact pathway approach (IPA) is used to estimate quantitatively the level of health effects caused by particulate matter (PM₁₀) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission from a lignite-fired power plant located in the Mae Moh area in northern region of Thailand. Health benefits are then assessed by comparing the levels of estimated health impacts without and with the installation of the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) equipment. The US EPA industrial source complex model is used to model air pollution dispersion at the local scale, and the sector average limited mixing meso-scale model is used to model air pollution transport at the regional scale. The quantification of the health end points in physical terms is carried out using the dose–response functions established recently for the population in Bangkok, Thailand. Monetarization of these effects is based on the benefit transfer method with appropriate adjustment. Finally, it has been found that the installation of the FGD to control SO₂ emission at Mae Moh significantly reduces adverse health effects not only on the population living near the power plant but also all over the country. A FGD unit installed at the 300-MW power unit can result, on average, in 16 fewer cases of acute mortality, 12 fewer cases of respiratory and cardiac hospital admissions, and almost 354,000 fewer days with acute respiratory symptoms annually. In monetary terms this benefit is equivalent to US $18.2 million (1995 prices) per annum. This benefit is much higher than the annualized investment and operation costs of FGD (US $7.4 million/yr).     

The non-fuel mineral position of the USA

In 1978 the USA used non-fuel processed mineral materials valued at over $200 billion (10⁹). Non-fuel mineral imports caused a trade imbalance of $8 billion. Imports supplied more than half of US supplies of 20 important minerals. The US stockpile of strategic materials is valued at over $11 billion. While world reserves of most minerals are now deemed adequate until 2000, demand for high temperature and special property materials requires careful monitoring and anticipation of disruptions in vulnerable sources.     

Human Freshwater Demand for Economic Activity and Ecosystems in Taiwan

Freshwater is necessary to economic activity, and humans depend on goods and services generated by water-dependent ecosystems. However, national freshwater management usually focuses on direct use of domestic freshwater. With an increasing scarcity of freshwater, attention has turned to two indirect uses of freshwater by humans. The first indirect use is freshwater used by foreign countries when producing products for export. The second use is freshwater required by local ecosystems: human survival and development depend on goods and services generated in these ecosystems. This work adopted Taiwan as a case study. In addition to two widely recognized ecosystem freshwater demands, evapotranspiration and reversed river flow, this study suggests that freshwater is a constituent of some abiotic components, such as groundwater in aquifers, because excessive withdrawal has already caused significant land subsidence in Taiwan. Moreover, the estimated results show that Taiwan’s net imports of freshwater through trade amounts to approximately 25% of its total freshwater use for economic production. Integrating industrial policy, trade policy, and national freshwater management is a useful approach for developing strategies to limit the growing use of freshwater in Taiwan. Policy implications are then developed by further analyzing withdrawal sources of freshwater (domestic and foreign) for supporting economic production in Taiwan and identifying the factors (domestic final demand and export) driving freshwater-intensive products.     

碳中和背景下欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国的影响及对策分析

在全球碳中和的新形势下,欧盟委员会于2021年7月正式提出“碳边境调节机制”（CBAM）立法提案,并计划于2023年起实施。本文在总结立法提案关键要素的基础上,着重分析欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性,研判可能对我国产生的潜在影响,并从国际国内层面提出对策建议。分析发现,欧盟采取“名义”碳市场的形式,初期将覆盖水泥、电力、化肥、钢铁和铝等5个行业,只核算产品生产过程的直接排放,暂不考虑间接排放,2023—2025年是过渡期,2026年开始正式实施。欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性面临诸多挑战：不符合世界贸易组织国民待遇原则和最惠国待遇原则,但存在满足关税与贸易总协定例外条款的可能性;违反国际气候治理的共同但有区别的责任原则、公平原则和各自能力原则,也不符合公约关于国际贸易歧视或变相限制的条款;对解决碳泄漏问题和保护本土竞争力的作用有限;产品隐含碳核算和碳价确定是技术难点问题。影响评估发现,欧盟CBAM将使我国受影响部门的对欧出口总额降低11%～13%,出口成本增加1亿～3.05亿美元,其中约四分之三的成本将由钢铁行业承担,对贸易隐含碳的下降作用有待进一步考量;此外,欧盟CBAM将会影响多边国际...     

Environmental regulation, productive efficiency and cost of pollution abatement: a case study of the sugar industry in India

In this paper the input distance function is estimated for the Indian Sugar industry under alternative assumptions of weak and strong disposability of bad outputs. The estimated distance function is used to make the estimates of environmental efficiency, Malmquist productivity index and shadow prices of pollutants. The technical efficiency measure estimated under the assumption of weak disposability of bad outputs is utilized to test the Porter hypothesis. Marginal costs of pollution abatement functions are estimated for different pollutants of water. Pollutant specific taxes are computed using the tax-standards method.     

Post-merger time series analysis: Iron ore mining

In Brazil, mergers and acquisitions are usually analyzed by the antitrust authorities ex post, following a Structure-Conduct-Performance approach close to the US Merger Guidelines. However, this framework was unable to address the complexity posed by a series of acquisitions of four mining companies by the newly privatized national champion Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (known then as CVRD, nowadays as Vale). This article extends a Vector Error Correction model estimated by the Brazilian Ministry of Justice, which eventually came to reinforce the definition of the relevant geographic market and to test for structural breaks in the price series. A formal horizontal merger simulation model was not viable from the available data. Though international prices Granger-caused domestic prices in Brazil, they explain less than a third of the variance. Domestic price hikes in the acquired miners’ series were observed above the export price increase not long after the acquisitions, and a structural break could not be rejected. Since convergence of domestic prices to international levels were not to be punished, remedies eventually applied by the Brazilian Antitrust Tribunal focused on preventing CVRD from abusing dominant position to vertically foreclose competitors in logistics, a key competitive issue for the industry.     

Ecological limitations and appropriation of ecosystem support by shrimp farming in Colombia

Shrimp farming in mangrove areas has grown dramatically in Asia and Latin America over the past decade. As a result, demand for resources required for farming, such as feed, seed, and clean water, has increased substantially. This study focuses on semiintensive shrimp culture as practiced on the Caribbean coast of Colombia. We estimated the spatial ecosystem support that is required to produce the food inputs, nursery areas, and clean water to the shrimp farms, as well as to process wastes. We also made an estimate of the natural and human-made resources necessary to run a typical semiintensive shrimp farm. The results show that a semiintensive shrimp farm needs a spatial ecosystem support—the ecological footprint—that is 35–190 times larger than the surface area of the farm. A typical such shrimp farm appropriates about 295 J of ecological work for each joule of edible shrimp protein produced. The corresponding figure for industrial energy is 40:1. More than 80% of the ecological primary production required to feed the shrimps is derived from external ecosystems. In 1990 an area of 874–2300 km² of mangrove was required to supply shrimp postlarvae to the farms in Colombia, corresponding to a total area equivalent to about 20–50% of the country’s total mangrove area. The results were compared with similar estimates for other food production systems, particularly aquacultural ones. The comparison indicates that shrimp farming ranks as one of the most resource-intensive food production systems, characterizing it as an ecologically unsustainable throughput system. Based on the results, we discuss local, national, and regional appropriation of ecological support by the semiintensive shrimp farms. Suggestions are made for how shrimp farming could be transformed into a food production system that is less environmentally degrading and less dependent on external support areas.     

Establishing backcountry use quotas: An example from Mineral King,California

Increasing levels of visitor use and consequent resource damage have necessitated that backcountry use restrictions be established in the Mineral King area of Sequoia National Park, California. In this paper we review the steps taken in developing a trailhead quota system. The availability of acceptable campsites, based on a detailed inventory of site distribution and impact, was used to quantitatively derive use capacities for each camp area. Wilderness permit data on visitor dispersal patterns from the major trailheads, including length of stay at each camp area, were then used to translate the area capacities into daily trailhead quotas that would assure that these capacities were not surpassed. The general approach is applicable to any backcountry area, although large complex areas may require the use of available computer simulation models.     

Global Trade in GM Food and the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety: Consequences for China

The UN Cartagena Protocol onBiosafety adopted in Montreal, 29 January, 2000and opened for signature in Nairobi, 15–26 May,2000 will exert a profound effect oninternational trade in genetically modifiedorganisms (GMOs) and their products. In thispaper, the potential effects of variousarticles of the Protocol on international tradein GMOs are analyzed. Based on the presentstatus of imports of GMOs and domestic researchand development of biotechnology in China,likely trends in imports of foreign GM food andrelated products after China accedes to WTO isexplored. Also, China's potentialcountermeasures to control and regulate importsof GMOs in line with implementation of theProtocol are discussed. China, in recent times,has increased its food and agricultural importssubstantially from USA and Canada. Chinaimported soybean 10.42 mill. tons in 2000 andabout 15 mill tons in 2001, of which majorityare from USA where GM soybean accounts for60%. The plantation of US Monsanto'stransgenic Bt cotton was increased to more than1 million ha in China in 2001. Though China haspaid great attention to develop biotechnology,it appears to have little scope to export GMOsand GM products. So China may consider a rangeof administrative measures to implement theCartagena Protocol and to regulate its importof GMOs and GM agricultural products.Consequently, the Regulation on Safety ofAgri-GMOs was issued on June, 2001 and followedthree detailed rules issued in Jan. of 2002,with a priority to limit foreign GMOs importingby safety certification and labeling system.These were outlined taking into accountpolicies adopted in Western countries such asgreen barriers to international trade.     

猪肉价格周期波动的时空差异特征及影响因素研究

我国作为猪肉生产大国、消费大国,猪肉价格波动事关普通百姓生活。利用2001—2019年猪肉价格省级面板数据,对猪肉价格长期波动的空间差异性进行了分析。结果表明:①从我国八大经济区及调入区、调出区猪肉价格区域差异测度结果来看,北部沿海区域内各省份猪肉价格差异最大,东北区域和长江中游区域差异较小;同时从猪肉价格差异贡献率来看,区域内差异贡献率更大。②从猪肉价格波动时空演进测度结果来看,地区间差异明显存在,同时各省份之间空间集聚性呈现出波动状态,表现出先减弱后增强的长期趋势。③从对猪肉价格周期性变化规律分析结果来看,价格波动存在明显的周期性,“猪瘟”、重大疫情等突发因素短期影响作用较大,而常规因素的影响才是价格波动真正推手。④在所筛选的猪肉价格常规影响因素中,育肥猪配合饲料价格、仔猪价格、地区生产总值引起猪肉价格差异的作用显著,且育肥猪配合饲料价格对猪肉价格差异影响程度最大。     

Potential impacts of imposing methyl bromide phaseout on US strawberry growers: a case study of a nomination for a critical use exemption under the Montreal Protocol

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer requires developed countries to phaseout methyl bromide production and non-quarantine uses by 2005 and developing countries to do the same by 2015. Exemptions to phaseout have been significant in slowing the process of abatement; many countries have applied for exemptions for some uses, partly on grounds that phaseout is economically infeasible. Data on the US strawberry market are used to investigate grower costs arising from substitution away from methyl bromide, the impact of trends in and characteristics of the demand for fresh strawberries, and characteristics of trade with countries not yet required to eliminate use of the compound. It appears that actual net costs to growers will be much smaller than the simple increase in production costs cited in the US nomination for exemption.     

Contamination, Crop Trials, and Compatibility

This paper examines the ethical andsocial questions that underlie the present UKdiscussion whether GM crops and organicagriculture can co-exist within a given regionor are mutually exclusive. A EuropeanCommission report predicted practicaldifficulties in achieving sufficientseparation distances to guarantee lowerthreshold levels proposed for GM material inorganic produce. Evidence of gene flow betweensome crops and their wild relatives has beena key issue in the recent Government consultation toconsult on whether or not to authorizecommercial planting of GM crops, following theresults of the current UK farm scale trials.The admixture of imported Bt transgenes intolandrace varieties of Mexican maize alsopresents difficulties. An ethical evaluationis made of the claim that organic growersshould expect protection from adventitioustraces of GM constructs in their products. Towhat extent – on either side of the debate –can any particular group in society set upagricultural standards for itself that mayeffectively restrain others from an otherwisejust business? The assumptions behind notionslike ``purity'' and ``contamination'' areexamined, together with their underlying viewsof nature and human intervention. The 2001UK Agriculture and Environmental BiotechnologyCommission report is relevant to theseissues. While the Government wishes to promotethe UK biotechnology industry and is underpressure from US claims of trade restraint, astrong organic lobby demands purity from GMcontamination. Does this adversarial framingof the issues reflect broader public opinionin the UK public consultation? Inarriving at policy decisions, the role of thevirtue of tolerance is considered inpost-modern and Christian ethical contexts.     

A Review of the External Positions of the Oil-Importing Developing Countries and their Relationship to the World Oil Market

Many oil-importing developing countries faced greater difficulties coping with the second oil shock (1979–80) than with the first (1973–74). The recent decline in oil prices has offset only a small part of the adverse effect of the earlier increases, and a number of these countries continue to face severe problems in servicing their external debt. This paper explores the reasons for these difficulties, which are associated in part with the higher levels of real interest rates in recent years and with the slowdown in economic activity in industrial countries. Estimates are provided of the effects of changing oil prices on the net real cost of oil imports in developing countries. The paper concludes with an assessment of the medium-term prospects for the financing of external deficits.     

中美贸易模式变化对中国大气汞排放的影响

在全球贸易体系中,美国是中国大气汞排放的主要外部消费驱动力之一。现有研究多核算国际贸易驱动的大气汞排放,识别主要的贸易驱动关系,缺乏中美贸易模式变化对中国大气汞排放的影响分析。本文基于环境扩展型投入产出模型和结构分解分析方法,计算了1997—2017年中美贸易驱动的中国大气汞排放量,并深入分析了贸易相关的社会经济因素对中国大气汞排放变化的相对贡献。研究结果表明:1997—2007年,中美贸易驱动的中国大气汞排放从13.5 t增至32.8 t,2007年后开始回落,2017年回落至13.6 t。贸易规模扩大是推动大气汞排放增加的最主要因素(62.6 t),排放强度降低是大气汞排放减少的最大驱动因素(-67.0 t)。生产技术水平变化和贸易结构变化的贡献相对较小,近年来逐渐起到促进大气汞排放减少的作用,但其贡献不稳定。根据研究结果,提出了加快产业创新升级,优化、稳定贸易结构,提升产品竞争力等建议。     

Environmental and economic analysis of switchgrass production for water quality improvement in northeast Kansas

The primary objectives of this research were to determine SWAT model predicted reductions in four water quality indicators (sediment yield, surface runoff, nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) in surface runoff, and edge-of-field erosion) associated with producing switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) on cropland in the Delaware basin in northeast Kansas, and evaluate switchgrass break-even prices. The magnitude of potential switchgrass water quality payments based on using switchgrass as an alternative energy source was also estimated. SWAT model simulations showed that between 527,000 and 1.27 million metric tons (Mg) of switchgrass could be produced annually across the basin depending upon nitrogen (N) fertilizer application levels (0-224 kg N ha(-1)). The predicted reductions in sediment yield, surface runoff, NO(3)-N in surface runoff, and edge-of-field erosion as a result of switchgrass plantings were 99, 55, 34, and 98%, respectively. The average annual cost per hectare for switchgrass ranged from about 190 US dollars with no N applied to around 345 US dollars at 224 kg N ha(-1) applied. Edge-of-field break-even price per Mg ranged from around 41 US dollars with no N applied to slightly less than 25 US dollars at 224 kg N ha(-1) applied. A majority of the switchgrass produced had an edge-of-field break-even price of 30 Mg(-1) US dollars or less. Savings of at least 50% in each of the four water quality indicators could be attained for an edge-of-field break-even price of 22-27.49 US dollars Mg(-1).     

Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price

The paper studies and applies the approaches to forecast long-term (LT) real prices of iron ore. This price is crucial for valuation of investments in Greenfield iron ore projects on the horizon of more than 5 years. The forecast is obtained by three different approaches which are usually used by investment bank analysts: marginal costs approach and 2 approaches based on calculation of incentive price. The paper concludes that there has been a structural shift on the iron ore market and LT iron ore prices will be higher by 20–30% than the average of industry forecasters suggest. This is related to the 2 key factors which were taken into account in this study—depletion of existing iron ore deposits and targeted return on investments for new projects. In addition, escalated industry costs inflation is claimed to be the factor which will bolster nominal iron ore prices at high levels in the long-term. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, confidence interval for future iron ore price was estimated.     

An integrated assessment model of carbon sequestration benefits: a case study of Liping county, China

This research attempts to model the complexity of planting trees to increase China's CO(2) sequestration potential by using a GIS-based integrated assessment (IA) approach. We use the IA model to assess the impact of China's Grain for Green reforestation and afforestation program on farmer and state incomes as well as CO(2) sequestration in Liping County, Guizhou Province. The IA model consists of five sub-models for carbon sequestration, crop income, timber income, Grain for Green, and carbon credits. It also includes a complementary qualitative module for assessing program impacts by gender and ethnicity. Using four scenarios with various assumptions about types of trees planted, crop incomes by township, CO(2) credit prices, state subsidies, methods for estimating carbon sequestered, and harvesting of trees, we find great variation in the impact of the Grain for Green program on incomes and on carbon sequestered over a 48 year period at both the county and township levels.     

Genetically Engineered Animals,Drugs, and Neoliberalism: The Need for a New Biotechnology Regulatory Policy Framework

Genetically engineered (GE) animals that are meant for release in the wild could significantly impact ecosystems given the interwoven or entangled existence of species. Therefore, among other things, it is all too important that regulatory agencies conduct entity appropriate, rigorous risk assessments that can be used for informed decision-making at the local, national and global levels about the release of those animals in the wild. In the United States (US), certain GE animals that are intended for release in the wild may be regulated as new animal drugs by the Food and Drug Administration. This paper argues that the decision to treat them as new animal drugs is attributable to the influence of neoliberalism on the US biotechnology regulatory policy framework. The case is made that there should be public democratic deliberations and decision-making about the values and concerns that should guide the nation’s biotechnology regulatory policy paradigm, including the risk assessment process for GE animals meant for release in the wild.     

UK balance of payments in raw materials: A statistical analysis with implications for possible national materials policies

The author discusses the concept of a national materials policy for the UK and focuses on the implications for such a policy to be derived from analysis of the UK balance of payments. The position of materials in the overall trade balance, the role of individual commodities, the form of metal imports and the sources of supplies are all examined statistically to consider what are the major trends in materials trade.