Lethal and nonlethal predator effects on an herbivore guild mediated by system productivity

Indirect effects propagated through intervening species in a food web have important effects on community properties. Traditionally, these indirect effects have been conceptualized as mediated through density changes of the intervening species, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that those mediated through trait (phenotypic) responses also can be very important. Because density- and trait-mediated indirect effects have different properties, it is critical that we understand the mechanisms of transmission in order to predict how they will interact, and when or where they will be important. In this study, we examined the mechanisms and consequences of the lethal (density-mediated) and nonlethal (trait-mediated) effects of a larval odonate predator on a guild of four herbivore species (a larval anuran and three species of snails) and their resources. We also manipulated system productivity in order to explore the effects of environmental context on the transmission of these two types of indirect effects. We show that trait-mediated effects arising from the predator can be very strong relative to density-mediated effects on both the competing herbivores and the species composition and production of their resources. A number of these indirect effects are shown to be contingent on productivity of the system. We further present evidence that trait- and density-mediated indirect effects originating from a predator may be transmitted independently through different routes in a food web, particularly when spatial responses of the transmitting prey are involved. Finally, effects on prey growth due to trait responses to the predator varied from negative to positive in predictable ways as a function of time and indirect effects on the larger food web. These results indicate the important role that trait-mediated indirect effects can play in trophic cascades and keystone predator interactions, and we discuss how the mechanisms involved can be incorporated in theory.     

Measuring the impact of dynamic antipredator traits on predator-prey-resource interactions

This article analyzes the limitations of the most widely used method for quantifying the impact of dynamic antipredator traits on food chain dynamics and discusses alternative approaches. The standard method for a predator-prey-resource chain estimates the effects of the prey's defensive behavior by comparing population densities or fitness measures in a "predator cue" treatment to those in a no-predator treatment. This design has been interpreted as providing a measure of the "nonconsumptive effect" of the predator on the prey and the "trait-mediated indirect effect" of the predator on the resource. Other approaches involve measurements of the impact of the behavior in the presence of functional predators. The questions addressed here are: (1) How consistent are the results of different approaches? (2) How time-dependent are their results? (3) How well do they correspond to theoretical measures of effect size? (4) How useful are the measurements in understanding system dynamics? A model of a tritrophic system in which the prey species adjusts a defensive trait adaptively is used to evaluate the experimental designs. Measures of changes in prey fitness or population density in a cue treatment generally include offsetting effects of the cost of the behavior and the benefit of more resources. This means that the sign of the effect, as well as its magnitude, may change depending on when the experiment is terminated. Because predation is not present in the cue treatment, few conclusions can be drawn about the impact of the behavior on population densities or fitness of the prey in a natural setting with predators. Cue experiments often do not accurately separate trait-mediated from density-mediated effects on the resource. Most scalar measures of effects are sensitive to experimental duration and initial densities. Use of a wider range of experimental designs to measure trait-related effects is called for.     

Consequences of stage-structured predators: cannibalism, behavioral effects, and trophic cascades

Cannibalistic and asymmetrical behavioral interactions between stages are common within stage-structured predator populations. Such direct interactions between predator stages can result in density- and trait-mediated indirect interactions between a predator and its prey. A set of structured predator-prey models is used to explore how such indirect interactions affect the dynamics and structure of communities. Analyses of the separate and combined effects of stage-structured cannibalism and behavior-mediated avoidance of cannibals under different ecological scenarios show that both cannibalism and behavioral avoidance of cannibalism can result in short- and long-term positive indirect connections between predator stages and the prey, including "apparent mutualism." These positive interactions alter the strength of trophic cascades such that the system's dynamics are determined by the interaction between bottom-up and top-down effects. Contrary to the expectation of simpler models, enrichment increases both predator and prey abundance in systems with cannibalism or behavioral avoidance of cannibalism. The effect of behavioral avoidance of cannibalism, however, depends on how strongly it affects the maturation rate of the predator. Behavioral interactions between predator stages reduce the short-term positive effect of cannibalism on the prey density, but can enhance its positive long-term effects. Both interaction types reduce the destabilizing effect of enrichment. These results suggest that inconsistencies between data and simple models can be resolved by accounting for stage-structured interactions within and among species.     

Trait-mediated effects on flowers: artificial spiders deceive pollinators and decrease plant fitness

Although predators can affect foraging behaviors of floral visitors, rarely is it known if these top-down effects of predators may cascade to plant fitness through trait-mediated interactions. In this study we manipulated artificial crab spiders on flowers of Rubus rosifolius to test the effects of predation risk on flower-visiting insects and strength of trait-mediated indirect effects to plant fitness. In addition, we tested which predator traits (e.g., forelimbs, abdomen) are recognized and avoided by pollinators. Total visitation rate was higher for control flowers than for flowers with an artificial crab spider. In addition, flowers with a sphere (simulating a spider abdomen) were more frequently visited than those with forelimbs or the entire spider model. Furthermore, the presence of artificial spiders decreased individual seed set by 42% and fruit biomass by 50%. Our findings indicate that pollinators, mostly bees, recognize and avoid flowers with predation risk; forelimbs seem to be the predator trait recognized and avoided by hymenopterans. Additionally, predator avoidance by pollinators resulted in pollen limitation, thereby affecting some components of plant fitness (fruit biomass and seed number). Because most pollinator species that recognized predation risk visited many other plant species, trait-mediated indirect effects of spiders cascading down to plant fitness may be a common phenomenon in the Atlantic rainforest ecosystem.     

The influence of size-specific indirect interactions in predator-prey systems

Nonlethal indirect interactions between predators often lead to nonadditive effects of predator number on prey survival and growth. Previous studies have focused on systems with at least two different predator species and one prey species. However, most predators undergo extreme ontological changes in phenotype such that interactions between different-sized cohorts of a predator and its prey could lead to nonadditive effects in systems with only two species. This may be important since different-sized individuals of the same species can differ more in their ecology than similar-sized individuals of different species. This study examined trait-mediated indirect effects in a two-species system including a cannibalistic predator with different-sized cohorts and its prey. I tested for these effects using larvae of two stream salamanders, Gyrinophilus porphyriticus (predator) and Eurycea cirrigera (prey), by altering the densities and combinations of predator size classes in experimental streams. Results showed that the presence of large individuals can significantly reduce the impact of density changes of smaller conspecifics on prey survival through nonlethal means. In the absence of large conspecifics, an increase in the relative frequency of small predators significantly increased predation rates, thereby reducing prey survival. However, with large conspecifics present, increasing the density of small predators did not decrease prey survival, resulting in a 14.3% lower prey mortality than predicted from the independent effects of both predator size classes. Small predators changed their microhabitat use in the presence of larger conspecifics. Prey individuals reduced activity in response to large predators but did not respond to small predators. Both predators reduced prey growth. These results demonstrate that the impact of a predator can be significantly altered by two different types of trait-mediated indirect effects in two-species systems: between different-sized cohorts and between different cohorts and prey. This study demonstrates that predictions based on simple numerical changes that assume independent effects of different size classes or ignore size structure can be strongly misleading. We need to account for the size structure within predator populations in order to predict how changes in predator abundance will affect predator-prey dynamics.     

Evaluating unintended consequences of intentional species introductions and eradications for improved conservation management

Increasingly intensive strategies to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function are being deployed in response to global anthropogenic threats, including intentionally introducing and eradicating species via assisted migration, rewilding, biological control, invasive species eradications, and gene drives. These actions are highly contentious because of their potential for unintended consequences. We conducted a global literature review of these conservation actions to quantify how often unintended outcomes occur and to elucidate their underlying causes. To evaluate conservation outcomes, we developed a community assessment framework for systematically mapping the range of possible interaction types for 111 case studies. Applying this tool, we quantified the number of interaction types considered in each study and documented the nature and strength of intended and unintended outcomes. Intended outcomes were reported in 51% of cases, a combination of intended outcomes and unintended outcomes in 26%, and strictly unintended outcomes in 10%. Hence, unintended outcomes were reported in 36% of all cases evaluated. In evaluating overall conservations outcomes (weighing intended vs. unintended effects), some unintended effects were fairly innocuous relative to the conservation objective, whereas others resulted in serious unintended consequences in recipient communities. Studies that assessed a greater number of community interactions with the target species reported unintended outcomes more often, suggesting that unintended consequences may be underreported due to insufficient vetting. Most reported unintended outcomes arose from direct effects (68%) or simple density-mediated or indirect effects (25%) linked to the target species. Only a few documented cases arose from more complex interaction pathways (7%). Therefore, most unintended outcomes involved simple interactions that could be predicted and mitigated through more formal vetting. Our community assessment framework provides a tool for screening future conservation actions by mapping the recipient community interaction web to identify and mitigate unintended outcomes from intentional species introductions and eradications for conservation.     

Indirect effects of an exploited predator on recruitment of coral-reef fishes

The more ecologists examine the role of trait-mediated indirect interactions (TMIIs), especially in regulating predator-prey interactions, the more we recognize their fundamental role in structuring food webs. However, most empirical evidence for TMIIs comes from studies that are either conducted in laboratory or mesocosm venues or are restricted to simple food webs involving lower trophic-level animals. Here, I quantified the direct and indirect effects of interactions between high-level vertebrate predators on their vertebrate prey using a field experiment. Specifically, I tested how varying densities of a large-bodied, top predator (Nassau grouper; Epinephelus striatus) affected persistence, growth, and behavior of two smaller-bodied, intermediate predators (coney and graysby groupers; Cephalopholis fulva and C. cruentata) on 20 isolated patch reefs in the Bahamas. Large-bodied groupers are capable of consuming their smaller-bodied counterparts, and previous observational studies have indicated that local abundances of these groupers are negatively correlated. I measured the effects of interactions among groupers on lower trophic-level prey by quantifying recruitment of coral-reef fishes to the reefs. The field experiment demonstrated a strong trophic cascade that was entirely mediated by modified behavior of the intermediate predators. These results indicate that indirect, nonlethal interactions in natural systems can have strong cascading effects even at high trophic levels and in high-diversity food webs. Incorporating the complexity of such indirect effects into fisheries management may improve the sustainability of fished populations and strengthen marine conservation efforts; however these results also indicate that the effects of fishing are complex and difficult to predict.     

Setting expectations for the ecological condition of streams: the concept of reference condition.

An important component of the biological assessment of stream condition is an evaluation of the direct or indirect effects of human activities or disturbances. The concept of a "reference condition" is increasingly used to describe the standard or benchmark against which current condition is compared. Many individual nations, and the European Union as a whole, have codified the concept of reference condition in legislation aimed at protecting and improving the ecological condition of streams. However, the phrase "reference condition" has many meanings in a variety of contexts. One of the primary purposes of this paper is to bring some consistency to the use of the term. We argue the need for a "reference condition" term that is reserved for referring to the "naturalness" of the biota (structure and function) and that naturalness implies the absence of significant human disturbance or alteration. To avoid the confusion that arises when alternative definitions of reference condition are used, we propose that the original concept of reference condition be preserved in this modified form of the term: "reference condition for biological integrity," or RC(BI). We further urge that these specific terms be used to refer to the concepts and methods used in individual bioassessments to characterize the expected condition to which current conditions are compared: "minimally disturbed condition" (MDC); "historical condition" (HC); "least disturbed condition" (LDC); and "best attainable condition" (BAC). We argue that each of these concepts can be narrowly defined, and each implies specific methods for estimating expectations. We also describe current methods by which these expectations are estimated including: the reference-site approach (condition at minimally or least-disturbed sites); best professional judgment; interpretation of historical condition; extrapolation of empirical models; and evaluation of ambient distributions. Because different assumptions about what constitutes reference condition will have important effects on the final classification of streams into condition classes, we urge that bioassessments be consistent in describing the definitions and methods used to set expectations.     

Herbivores and edaphic factors constrain the realized niche of a native plant

Biotic interactions, such as competition and herbivory, can limit plant species ranges to a subset of edaphically suitable habitats, termed the realized niche. Here we explored the role that herbivores play in restricting the niche of serpentine ecotypes of the native California annual Collinsia sparsiflora. We planted seeds from four populations into a range of natural field environments that varied in the presence/absence of naturally occurring C. sparsiflora and in predicted suitability for growth and survival of the serpentine ecotype of C. sparsiflora. Path analysis was then used to model the direct and herbivore-mediated indirect effects of environmental variables on the survival of C. sparsiflora serpentine ecotypes. We found that C. sparsiflora received more herbivory when planted into areas where serpentine ecotypes of C. sparsiflora were not predicted to persist, and that increased herbivory was associated with decreased survival, suggesting that herbivores may limit the distribution of C. sparsiflora serpentine ecotypes. Additionally, we demonstrated that edaphic environmental variables impacted the survival of C. sparsiflora serpentine ecotypes both directly and indirectly, by altering interactions with herbivores. These indirect effects were probably trait-mediated and probably occurred because edaphic factors may influence plant traits that, in turn, alter attractiveness to herbivores. Although the magnitude of direct effects exceeded the magnitude of indirect effects, many strong herbivore-mediated indirect effects were detected. Thus, interactions between the abiotic environment and insect herbivory contributed to restricting the niche of C. sparsiflora serpentine ecotypes to a subset of available habitat.     

Impact of cannibalism on predator-prey dynamics: size-structured interactions and apparent mutualism

Direct and indirect interactions between two prey species can strongly alter the dynamics of predator-prey systems. Most predators are cannibalistic, and as a consequence, even systems with only one predator and one prey include two prey types: conspecifics and heterospecifics. The effects of the complex direct and indirect interactions that emerge in such cannibalistic systems are still poorly understood. This study examined how the indirect interaction between conspecific and heterospecific prey affects cannibalism and predation rates and how the direct interactions between both species indirectly alter the effect of the cannibalistic predator. I tested for these effects using larvae of the stream salamanders Eurycea cirrigera (prey) and Pseudotriton ruber (cannibalistic predator) by manipulating the relative densities of the conspecific and heterospecific prey in the presence and absence of the predator in experimental streams. The rates of cannibalism and heterospecific predation were proportional to the respective densities and negatively correlated, indicating a positive indirect interaction between conspecific and heterospecific prey, similar to "apparent mutualism." Direct interactions between prey species did not alter the effect of the predator. Although both types of prey showed a similar 30% reduction in night activity and switch in microhabitat use in response to the presence of the predator, cannibalism rates were three times higher than heterospecific predation rates irrespective of the relative densities of the two types of prey. Cumulative predation risks differed even more due to the 48% lower growth rate of conspecific prey. Detailed laboratory experiments suggest that the 3:1 difference in cannibalism and predation rate was due to the higher efficiency of heterospecific prey in escaping immediate attacks. However, no difference was observed when the predator was a closely related salamander species, Gyrinophilus porphyriticus, indicating that this difference is species specific. This demonstrates that cannibalism can result in the coupling of predator and prey mortality rates that strongly determines the dynamics of predator-prey systems.     

Can rare positive interactions become common when large carnivores consume livestock?

Livestock populations in protected areas are viewed negatively because of their interaction with native ungulates through direct competition for food resources. However, livestock and native prey can also interact indirectly through their shared predator. Indirect interactions between two prey species occur when one prey modifies either the functional or numerical responses of a shared predator. This interaction is often manifested as negative effects (apparent competition) on one or both prey species through increased predation risk. But indirect interactions can also yield positive effects on a focal prey if the shared predator modifies its functional response toward increased consumption of an abundant and higher-quality alternative prey. Such a phenomenon between two prey species is underappreciated and overlooked in nature. Positive indirect effects can be expected to occur in livestock-dominated wildlife reserves containing large carnivores. We searched for such positive effects in Acacia-Zizhypus forests of India's Gir sanctuary where livestock (Bubalus bubalis and Bos indicus) and a coexisting native prey (chital deer, Axis axis) are consumed by Asiatic lions (Panthera leo persica). Chital vigilance was higher in areas with low livestock density than in areas with high livestock density. This positive indirect effect occurred because lion predation rates on livestock were twice as great where livestock were abundant than where livestock density was low. Positive indirect interactions mediated by shared predators may be more common than generally thought with rather major consequences for ecological understanding and conservation. We encourage further studies to understand outcomes of indirect interactions on long-term predator-prey dynamics in livestock-dominated protected areas.     

Resource identity modifies the influence of predation risk on ecosystem function

It is well established that predators can scare as well as consume their prey. In many systems, the fear of being eaten causes trait-mediated cascades whose strength can rival or exceed that of more widely recognized density-mediated cascades transmitted by predators that consume their prey. Despite this progress it is only beginning to be understood how the influence of predation risk is shaped by environmental context and whether it can exert an important influence on ecosystem-level processes. This study used a factorial mesocosm experiment that manipulated basal-resource identity (either barnacles, Semibalanus balanoides, or mussels, Mytilus edulis) to determine how resources modify the influence of predation risk, cascade strength, and the efficiency of energy transfer in two, tritrophic, rocky-shore food chains containing the predatory green crab (Carcinus maenas) and an intermediate consumer (the snail, Nucella lapillus). The effect of predation risk and the strength of trait-mediated cascades (both in absolute and relative terms) were much stronger in the barnacle than in the mussel food chain. Moreover, predation risk strongly diminished the efficiency of energy transfer in the barnacle food chain but had no significant effect in the mussel food chain. The influence of resource identity on indirect-effect strength and energy transfer was likely caused by differences in how each resource shapes the degree of risk perceived by prey. We suggest that our understanding of the connection between trophic dynamics and ecosystem functioning will improve considerably once the effects of predation risk on individual behavior and physiology are considered.     

An ecological framework for contextualizing carnivore–livestock conflict

Carnivore predation on livestock is a complex management and policy challenge, yet it is also intrinsically an ecological interaction between predators and prey. Human–wildlife interactions occur in socioecological systems in which human and environmental processes are closely linked. However, underlying human–wildlife conflict and key to unpacking its complexity are concrete and identifiable ecological mechanisms that lead to predation events. To better understand how ecological theory accords with interactions between wild predators and domestic prey, we developed a framework to describe ecological drivers of predation on livestock. We based this framework on foundational ecological theory and current research on interactions between predators and domestic prey. We used this framework to examine ecological mechanisms (e.g., density-mediated effects, behaviorally mediated effects, and optimal foraging theory) through which specific management interventions operate, and we analyzed the ecological determinants of failure and success of management interventions in 3 case studies: snow leopards (Panthera uncia), wolves (Canis lupus), and cougars (Puma concolor). The varied, context-dependent successes and failures of the management interventions in these case studies demonstrated the utility of using an ecological framework to ground research and management of carnivore–livestock conflict. Mitigation of human–wildlife conflict appears to require an understanding of how fundamental ecological theories work within domestic predator–prey systems.     

Variability of species' roles in marine communities: change of paradigms for conservation priorities

The structure and organisation of aquatic communities, moulded in each environment by combinations of abiotic factors, recruitment and productivity rates, rely upon a network of both pairwise and transitive interactions among organisms. In many cases, a few strong interactors drive basic ecological processes by playing a leading role in channelling the available resources. Among these, keystone species may control the outputs of local biodiversity through large indirect effects, disproportionately large relative to their abundance. Functional roles are not fixed labels, and species interactions have variable outputs in both time and space: also, in spite of a growing literature on species interactions, terminology is often poorly applied. This leads to the loss of the informative value of concepts, like the keystone species, which might represent useful trade-offs between science and environmental politics. Species' roles are often used to set taxonomic conservation priorities, although this might even be regarded as unethical, ecologically wrong, or in disregard of the evolutionary meaning of species coexistence and interaction. A re-assessment of species' roles is given here, attempting to highlight their limits and applicability. Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer LINK server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00227-001-0769-2.     

Exploitative competition between invasive herbivores benefits a native host plant

Although biological invasions are of considerable concern to ecologists, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential for and consequences of indirect interactions between invasive species. Such interactions are generally thought to enhance invasives' spread and impact (i.e., the "invasional meltdown" hypothesis); however, exotic species might also act indirectly to slow the spread or blunt the impact of other invasives. On the east coast of the United States, the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae, HWA) and elongate hemlock scale (Fiorinia externa, EHS) both feed on eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis). Of the two insects, HWA is considered far more damaging and disproportionately responsible for hemlock mortality. We describe research assessing the interaction between HWA and EHS, and the consequences of this interaction for eastern hemlock. We conducted an experiment in which uninfested hemlock branches were experimentally infested with herbivores in a 2 x 2 factorial design (either, both, or neither herbivore species). Over the 2.5-year course of the experiment, each herbivore's density was approximately 30% lower in mixed- vs. single-species treatments. Intriguingly, however, interspecific competition weakened rather than enhanced plant damage: growth was lower in the HWA-only treatment than in the HWA + EHS, EHS-only, or control treatments. Our results suggest that, for HWA-infested hemlocks, the benefit of co-occurring EHS infestations (reduced HWA density) may outweigh the cost (increased resource depletion).     

Understanding the net effects of pesticides on amphibian trematode infections

Anthropogenic factors can have simultaneous positive and negative effects on parasite transmission, and thus it is important to quantify their net effects on disease risk. Net effects will be a product of changes in the survival and traits (e.g., susceptibility, infectivity) of both hosts and parasites. In separate laboratory experiments, we exposed cercariae of the trematode Echinostoma trivolvis, and its first and second intermediate hosts, snails (Planorbella trivolvis) and green frog tadpoles (Rana clamitans), respectively, to one of four common pesticides (atrazine, glyphosate, carbaryl, and malathion) at standardized, ecologically relevant concentrations (201.0, 3700.0, 33.5, and 9.6 microg/L, respectively). We measured effects of pesticide exposure on six mechanisms important to this host-parasite interaction: (1) survival of E. trivolvis cercariae over 26 hours, (2) tadpole survival over two weeks, (3) snail survival over four weeks, (4) snail growth and fecundity, (5) cercarial infectivity, and (6) tadpole susceptibility to a fixed number of cercariae. Pesticides, in general, caused significantly greater mortality of E. trivolvis cercariae than did control treatments, but atrazine was the lone chemical to significantly reduce cercarial survival (LC50 value = 267 mg/L) and then only at concentrations greater than commonly found in aquatic ecosystems (> or =200 microg/L). None of the pesticides significantly enhanced E. trivolvis virulence, decreased tadpole survival, or reduced snail survival, growth, or fecundity. Sublethal exposure of the cercariae to the pesticides (4 h) did not significantly affect trematode encystment in R. clamitans. In contrast, sublethal exposure of R. clamitans to each of the four pesticides increased their susceptibility as measured by the percentage of cercariae that encysted. The reduction in exposure to trematodes due to pesticide-induced cercarial mortality (a density-mediated effect) was smaller than the pesticide-induced increase in amphibian susceptibility (a trait-mediated effect), suggesting that the net effect of exposure to environmentally realistic levels of pesticides will be to elevate amphibian trematode infections. These findings highlight the importance of elucidating the lethal and sublethal effects of anthropogenic factors on both hosts and parasites to understand the mechanisms underlying changes in parasite transmission and virulence, an approach that is especially needed for amphibians, a taxon experiencing global disease-related declines.     

Cavity excavation and enlargement as mechanisms for indirect interactions in an avian community

Direct and indirect species interactions within ecological communities may play a strong role in influencing or maintaining community structure. Complex community interactions pose a major challenge to predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change because predictive frameworks require identification of mechanisms by which community interactions arise. Cavity-nesting communities are well suited for mechanistic studies of species interactions because cavity nesters interact through the creation of and competition for cavity-nest sites. In this study, we use a cavity-nest web as a predictive framework for identifying potential indirect species interactions within a cavity-nesting community. From 2002 to 2005, we monitored abundance and nests of cavity-nesting birds in the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. Using a nest-web approach, we identified a potential indirect interaction between the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) and large secondary cavity nesters, mediated by the Northern Flicker (Colaptes auratus). We used structural equation modeling to test a path model of this interaction, using cavity excavation and enlargement as mechanisms which drive the relationship between these species. Through experimental manipulation of cavity availability, we blocked links described in our model, confirming cavity creation and enlargement as processes that influence community structure. We found that a single-species management technique could potentially disrupt this indirect relationship by affecting Northern Flicker cavity-excavation behavior. This study is the first demonstration of how experimental cavity manipulation can be used to test inferred processes derived from a nest web and highlights the need to understand how mechanisms underlying species interactions can complicate ecosystem responses to environmental change.     

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (-25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.     

Field evidence for pervasive indirect effects of fishing on prey foraging behavior

The indirect, ecosystem-level consequences of ocean fishing, and particularly the mechanisms driving them, are poorly understood. Most studies focus on density-mediated trophic cascades, where removal of predators alternately causes increases and decreases in abundances of lower trophic levels. However, cascades could also be driven by where and when prey forage rather than solely by prey abundance. Over a large gradient of fishing intensity in the central Pacific's remote northern Line Islands, including a nearly pristine, baseline coral reef system, we found that changes in predation risk elicit strong behavioral responses in foraging patterns across multiple prey fish species. These responses were observed as a function of both short-term ("acute") risk and longer-term ("chronic") risk, as well as when prey were exposed to model predators to isolate the effect of perceived predation risk from other potentially confounding factors. Compared to numerical prey responses, antipredator behavioral responses such as these can potentially have far greater net impacts (by occurring over entire assemblages) and operate over shorter temporal scales (with potentially instantaneous response times) in transmitting top-down effects. A rich body of literature exists on both the direct effects of human removal of predators from ecosystems and predators' effects on prey behavior. Our results draw together these lines of research and provide the first empirical evidence that large-scale human removal of predators from a natural ecosystem indirectly alters prey behavior. These behavioral changes may, in turn, drive previously unsuspected alterations in reef food webs.     

Identifying important species that amplify or mitigate the interactive effects of human impacts on marine food webs

Some species may have a larger role than others in the transfer of complex effects of multiple human stressors, such as changes in biomass, through marine food webs. We devised a novel approach to identify such species. We constructed annual interaction-effect networks (IENs) of the simulated changes in biomass between species of the southeastern Australian marine system. Each annual IEN was composed of the species linked by either an additive (sum of the individual stressor response), synergistic (lower biomass compared with additive effects), or antagonistic (greater biomass compared with additive effects) response to the interaction effect of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and fisheries. Structurally, over the simulation period, the number of species and links in the synergistic IENs increased and the network structure became more stable. The stability of the antagonistic IENs decreased and became more vulnerable to the loss of species. In contrast, there was no change in the structural attributes of species linked by an additive response. Using indices common in food-web and network theory, we identified the species in each IEN for which a change in biomass from stressor effects would disproportionately affect the biomass of other species via direct and indirect local, intermediate, and global predator–prey feeding interactions. Knowing the species that transfer the most synergistic or antagonistic responses in a food-web may inform conservation under increasing multiple-stressor impacts.