以物质流分析方法为基础核算我国循环经济主要指标

为更好地推动我国循环经济建设的发展，需要建立一套用于评价循环经济发展的指标体系。介绍当前国际上通用的分析资源利用的物质流分析（MFA,Material Flow Analysis）方法，以及结合我国国情建立的我国发展循环经济的几个关于资源利用的主要指标。根据这些指标，分析了我国2000-2003年直接资源投入量的变化趋势以及与其他发达国家的差异和差距；并通过对2000年和2003年中国物质流发展趋势的分析，对中国循环经济的进展进行了评估。结果表明，以上述循环经济的评价指标为基础，确立我国循环经济发展目标，制定我国循环经济战略具有重要的意义。     

Plan C： China＇s Development under the Scarcity of Natural Capital

The critical issue of China＇s modernization is whether it can free itself from the traditional modernization plan based on the relatively abundant natural capital, and innovatively create a developmental model of a large country under the scarcity of natural capital. This is why China is so keen on circular economy and economical use of resources. Focused on this issue, this paper summarizes the theoretical elements of the development under the scarcity of natural capital, points out that Plan C is the strategic choice for China＇s future development, emphasizes that China needs to enhance the new industrialization, new urbanization and new modernization based on the restriction of natural capital, and discusses the technological and mechanistic support required to realize the development under the scarcity of natural capital.     

发展循环经济的国际经验和对我国的启示

对发展循环经济的国际经验进行系统分析与研究．德国、日本等发达国家发展循环经济、建设循环型杜会的演变、动因、主要做法及其执行效果、对其他发达国家的废弃物管理措施、清洁生产和生态工业园区建设等．值得我们关注。为此．特提出国际经验对我国发展循环经济的启示．包括战略选择、法规法律、政策制度、体制与机制、优先领域、技术与信息、宣传教育与公众参与等。经过比较研究．认为我国目前要大力推进循环经济．应该借鉴国际先进经验．建立健全法律和关键制度．选择合适的优先领域．加强循环经济技术支撑体系研究．通过宣传教育提高公众意识．形成“政府引导、企业实践、公众参与。的循环经济发展机制。     

中国循环经济发展的空间分异与优化

实施可持续发展战略,积极调整生产方式和消费模式将成为我国各省(市)区加速现代化建设的迫切要求和21世纪区域经济持续增长的磐由之路,发展循环经济是实现可持续发展战略的重要途径.我国的循环经济仍处于起步阶段,在理论和实践上尚存在许多亟待解决的困难与问题.由于我国区域间在国土规模、资源禀赋、经济基础、文化背景等方面的不同,各地区循环经济发展水平和能力必然存在着明显的差异性.本文在构建评价区域循环经济发展水平指标体系的基础上,运用主成分分析方法,对我国循环经济发展的空间差异进行了定量化的测度,并对存在的主要问题进行了深入的分析和探讨.一方面,我国各省(市)区的循环经济发展能力存在着明显的差异;另一方面,我国不同水平循环经济发展能力的地区中,循环经济发展能力较弱的地区处于控制地位,反映了目前我国发展循环经济仍然任重道远.尽管我国目前在推动循环经济发展方面取得了一定成效,但从总体上看,我国发展循环经济仍面临着一些障碍,需要综合运用经济、法律、行政等手段来加以克服.     

Prospering Revolution of Resource Efficiency in Northeast Industrial Area in China

Despite its strong advantages in resource, technology and human resource, China＇s Northeast Industrial Area is also experiencing problems of unreasonable industrial structure, environmental pollution, and the degradation of ecological condition, etc., which prevent this area from achieving a sustainable devel- opment. Through analyzing the resource problem, the present paper proposed a strategy of circular economy for the prosperity of this are, discussed the theories of circular economy and resource recycling, and finally concluded that improving resource productivity is at the core of circular economy.     

贵阳市循环经济发展度量的研究

循环经济指标体系旨在度量区域循环经济发展的系统目标和工作进展。该文在“驱动力-压力-状态-响应”（DPSR）框架下设计度量区域循环经济发展的指标体系，含有状态指标、压力指标、驱动力指标、响应指标以及分离指标共5类指标集合。其中，分离指标集合作为循环经济的特征指标来表征经济发展与资源投入和污染产出分离的效果和趋势。考察贵阳循环经济规划案例表明：贵阳如果走循环经济的发展道路，可以转变经济增长方式，实现经济增长与资源投入和污染产出的分离。     

C模式:中国发展循环经济的战略选择

我国循环经济发展到了需要深化的阶段。运用生态效率的概念揭示循环经济的减物质化本质，通过对生态效率进行情景分析，指出适合我国的循环经济发展模式-C模式。C模式也称1.5-2倍数发展战略，该模式将给予我图的GDP增长一个15—20年左右缓冲的阶段，并希望经过15-20年的经济增长方式调整，最终达到一种相对的减物质化阶段。同时指出实现中图循环经济发展的C模式，需要技术和政策的双重保障。在发展循环经济过程中，中国不但要关注传统的渐进式的部门内部的技术变革，还要前瞻性地促进跨部门的技术变革。同时，还要建立基于生命周期分析和现代治理理论的促进循环经济发展的全过程、全方位政策体系。     

Spatial Variation and Space Optimization of the Development of China’s Circular Economy

China's circular economy is still at the initial stage, whose development has many difficulties and problems requiring immediate resolution theoretically and practically. Due to the differences of regions on the scale of land, endowment of resources, economic basis and cultural background, the developmental levels and capabilities of circular economy are inevitably different. Based on establishing the indicator system for assessing the developmental level of regional circular economy, spatial variation of China's circular economy is measured by the quantitative measurement using principal component analysis, and the existing problems are also analyzed and discussed. On one hand, the differences of the development capability of the circular economy of different provinces (cities) are profound in China; ①Difference between the first category (strong) and the second category (relatively strong) is 1.1264 points. Difference between the second category and the third category (relatively weak) is 0.3867 points. Difference between the third category and the fourth category (weak) is 1.0238 points. Difference between the first category and the fourth category reaches up to 2.0869 points. Average difference between the area where the developmental level of circular economy is relatively strong and the area where the developmental level of circular economy is relatively weak is 1.3617 points. ②The differences of the distribution of the areas, with different development capability of circular economy, which are located in the three economic regions of China, are also profound. The regions with a relatively strong development capability of circular economy are mainly located in the eastern economic area, which account for 22.58% of the whole regions, while only account for 12.90% in the middle and western economic areas. On the contrary, the regions with a relatively weak development capability of circular economy account for 48.39% in the middle and western area, while account for 16.13% in the eastern area. On the other hand, among regions with different development capability of circular economy, the regions with a relatively weak development capability of circular economy are in a dominant position, which accountfor 64.52% of all the provinces (cities), which indicates that the development of the China's circular economy still has a long way to go. Though certain achievements have been made in the development of China's circular economy, in general, there are still some obstacles to be tacked in the development of China's circular economy which require the economic, legal and administrative methods.     

我国水资源循环经济发展与创新体系构建

循环经济是针对持续经济增长对资源和环境压力而提出的一种发展理念、经济制度和技术范式相结合的新的经济发展模式,它以高效利用和循环利用为核心,以低消耗、低排放、高效率为基本特征,符合可持续发展思想。当前我国面临严重的水资源危机,循环经济是实现我国人口、资源与环境可持续发展的重要途径和有效措施,是我国水资源新战略的理想选择。水资源循环经济力图使人类对水资源的开发利用活动既符合水循环自然规律,又遵循社会经济规律,实现水循环与经济循环的和谐统一。水资源循环经济遵循减量化、再利用、再循环原则。我国发展水资源循环经济虽然已经具备一定的基础,但必须改革现有机制和体制,建立长效机制,构建水资源制度、技术和观念创新的体系。     

Spatial Variation and Space Optimization of the Development of China’s Circular Economy

Abstract

China’s circular economy is still at the initial stage, whose development has many difficulties and problems requiring immediate resolution theoretically and practically. Due to the differences of regions on the scale of land, endowment of resources, economic basis and cultural background, the developmental levels and capabilities of circular economy are inevitably different. Based on establishing the indicator system for assessing the developmental level of regional circular economy, spatial variation of China’s circular economy is measured by the quantitative measurement using principal component analysis, and the existing problems are also analyzed and discussed. On one hand, the differences of the development capability of the circular economy of different provinces (cities) are profound in China; Difference between the first category (strong) and the second category (relatively strong) is 1.1264 points. Difference between the second category and the third category (relatively weak) is 0.3867 points. Difference between the third category and the fourth category (weak) is 1.0238 points. Difference between the first category and the fourth category reaches up to 2.0869 points. Average difference between the area where the developmental level of circular economy is relatively strong and the area where the developmental level of circular economy is relatively weak is 1.3617 points. The differences of the distribution of the areas, with different development capability of circular economy, which are located in the three economic regions of China, are also profound. The regions with a relatively strong development capability of circular economy are mainly located in the eastern economic area, which account for 22.58% of the whole regions, while only account for 12.90% in the middle and western economic areas. On the contrary, the regions with a relatively weak development capability of circular economy account for 48.39% in the middle and western area, while account for 16.13% in the eastern area. On the other hand, among regions with different development capability of circular economy, the regions with a relatively weak development capability of circular economy are in a dominant position, which account for 64.52% of all the provinces (cities), which indicates that the development of the China’s circular economy still has a long way to go. Though certain achievements have been made in the development of China’s circular economy, in general, there are still some obstacles to be tacked in the development of China’s circular economy which require the economic, legal and administrative methods.     

物质流分析方法的理论及其应用研究

物质流分析既是发展循环经济重要的辅助手段，也是衡量循环经济发展水平的方法。目前，世界上的一些主要发达国家已经开展了物质流分析的研究与实践。我国物质流分析的研究尚处于起步阶段，特别是以城市为对象的区域物质流分析研究在我国尚处于起步和尝试阶段。为促进循环经济在我国的健康发展．应该结合我国实际，逐渐开展区（县）层面的物质流分析。本文在借鉴国外物质流分析的实践经验的基础上，以青岛市城阳区为例，运用物质流分析方法，首次对区（县）级行政区域进行了研究。此外，结合物质流分析结果，运用IPAT方程，建立了城阳区循环经济建设的指标体系，为其他地区实施区域层面物质流分析、建立循环经济建设指标体系提供了借鉴。研究表明．物质流分析对区域循环经济的规划建设具有重要意义。     

我国循环经济的发展模式

循环经济发展模式主要是指循环经济的产业发展模式和区域发展模式。根据我国循环经济的内涵、国际做法和国内相关实践探索经验,我国循环经济的产业发展模式涉及生产和消费两个重点领域和四个重点产业。四个重点产业是生态工业、生态农业、绿色服务业和废弃物再利用、资源化及无害化处置产业。循环经济区域发展模式是在区域基础设施体系和生态系统支撑下的两个重点领域和四个重点产业的有机组合和共生。是区域可持续发展的核心组成部分。区域基础设施体系也是应用循环经济原理的重要领域。以资源能源离效和环境影响最小为特征。在目前的实践中。我国出现了三种将发展循环经济作为推动区域可持续发展的助推器而引发的区域社会经济发展战略转型模式：东部发达地区的自发转型模式、辽宁资源型地区的转型模式和西部地区典型的跨越发展转型模式。     

Circular Economy Development Mode Based on System Theory

The paper tries to explore circular economy from the viewpoint of the system theory. Circular economy is a kind of complicated economic activity, and it is a wholly new ecotype economy proposed by Western countries after they had summed up many experiences and lessons from traditional economy. It is an entirety and has many layers. It keeps an open and dynamic balance. Because the system theory is the theoretical foundation of circular economy, we should systemically analyze and study circular economy from the macroscopic view, correctly grasp its operational laws, improve its service functions, and realize human beings＇ sustainable development. The paper introduces the content and general characteristics of the system theory and the idea of circular economy. Then it analyzes circular economy based on the system theory. The paper concludes that the integration of circular economy and the system theory can promote the functions of circular economy.     

中日韩循环经济政策比较研究

在中国经济迅猛发展的同时，投资主导型的经济模式中环境保护要素的缺失导致我国工业化发展旱、中期的资源、能源约束、效率低下和浪费严重。在我国实施循环经济刻不容缓。循环经济政策是依据不同的社会、经济和环境条件而制定的。由于历史的原因，中日韩三国在地缘关系、政治传统、风俗习惯、文化教育等内在制度和外在制度彼此趋同，反映在循环经济政策的制定、执行上也有某些相似的地方。对三国循环经济的历史和现状进行比较研究，得出有益于我国的经验，无疑具有很重大的现实意义。采用制度变迁的基本理论作为指导，运用历史研究法、调查研究法等方法进行研究，对中日韩循环经济政策演变的历程进行系统梳理和比较，深入全面地考量其指导思想和举措的选择动机，系统广泛地从多方面研究中日韩循环经济政策。并将三者加以比较，以得出对我国循环经济的发展具有较强借鉴意义的经验，更好地推进循环经济在我国的发展。     

加速战略转移推进持续发展

中国是一个发展中国家,经济已进入高速增长阶段,因而应从实际出发,选择一条既发展经济,又保护环境的持续发展道路。《中国21世纪议程》阐述了持续发展的战略思想、总体目标和步骤,是我国推行持续发展战略的有力保证,亦是指导今后中国环境保护工作的行动指南。     

循环经济创新评价指标体系研究

循环经济是绿色、低碳的可持续发展模式。实践充分证明,发展循环经济必须以创新为动力。循环经济创新是一项涉及面广、综合性很强的系统工程。为了科学地评价循环经济创新状况,构建一套设计合理、操作性较强的循环经济创新评价指标体系,为循环经济管理及其创新提供数据支持是十分必要的。本文根据循环经济理论,依据目前我国循环经济发展及循环经济创新情况,提出了构建循环经济创新评价指标的原则,并提出了涵盖9个一级指标、52个二级指标的评价体系。根据我国循环经济发展实际以及国家经济政策等综合考量,设置出了体现我国国情的循环经济创新评价指标体系的指标评分标准。主要用于对全社会和各地循环经济创新状况进行总体的定量判断,为循环经济发展提供依据和指导。     

基于AHP-Fuzzy的循环经济技术综合评价方法研究

国家将制定重点领域循环经济技术清单,引导和发展循环经济。在此背景下,本文针对循环经济技术的筛选,开展了综合评价方法的实证研究,结果显示该技术属于一级循环经济技术,并在资源节约与废弃物减排方面具有显著效益,表明本文构建的综合评价方法实现了对备选循环经济技术的综合评价、分级和排序,可以为企业、国家选择循环经济技术提供参考。     

Circular Economy Development Mode Based on System Theory

Abstract

The paper tries to explore circular economy from the viewpoint of the system theory. Circular economy is a kind of complicated economic activity, and it is a wholly new ecotype economy proposed by Western countries after they had summed up many experiences and lessons from traditional economy. It is an entirety and has many layers. It keeps an open and dynamic balance. Because the system theory is the theoretical foundation of circular economy, we should systemically analyze and study circular economy from the macroscopic view, correctly grasp its operational laws, improve its service functions, and realize human beings' sustainable development. The paper introduces the content and general characteristics of the system theory and the idea of circular economy. Then it analyzes circular economy based on the system theory. The paper concludes that the integration of circular economy and the system theory can promote the functions of circular economy.     

人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证

从消费压力人口视角探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握气候变化压力的人文因素,以及人口与消费可持续发展的动力学机制.本文通过对STIRPAT模型的扩展,应用岭回归方法计量分析人口、消费及技术因素对碳排放的影响.对我国1980至2007年碳排放情况的统计实证结果表明,扩展的STIRPAT模型对中国国情有较高的解释力.居民消费水平、人口城市化率、人口规模三个因素对我国碳排放总量的变化影响明显;现阶段我国居民消费水平与人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力已高于人口规模变化的影响力,居民消费水平与消费模式等人文因素的变化有可能成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;技术进步因素在此模型中对我国该阶段碳排放的解释力有限,表明我国未来通过技术进步减缓碳排放的潜力巨大.     

作为我国循环经济测度的生态效率指标及其实证研究

尝试借鉴德国环境经济账户中的生态效率指标,并根据我国实际情况,构建适合度量我国循环经济发展的生态效率指标。这套指标是基于GDP与建设用地、能源消耗、用水总量、原材料消耗等4个资源投入性指标和二氧化硫排放量、废水排放量、国内生产排放量等3个污染排放类指标生成的,包括土地产出率、能源产出率、用水产出率、原材料消耗产出率、二氧化硫排放产出率、废水排放产出率、国内生产排放产出率等7个指标。应用这套生态效率指标分析我国1990～2005年生态效率的发展趋势,发现1990～2005年各种自然输入要素的生态效率均呈现增长态势,但增长速度仅使自然输入要素与经济产出呈现出不同程度的弱脱钩。其中,用水产出率增长最快,能源产出率增长最慢;用水产出率、国内生产排放产出率和土地产出率的增长速度高于就业人员劳动生产率的增长速度,而二氧化硫排放产出率、废水排放产出率、原材料消耗产出率和能源消耗产出率的增长速度低于就业人员劳动生产率的增长速度。