Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

The African food crisis of 1982-1986*

The crisis cannot be attributed to any one cause, but rather it was the product of a number of interacting factors whose precise combination varied between countries. Drought, internal political and economic factors and an unfavourable external economic environment were significant contributory factors. Civil war and externally financed insurgency were primarily responsible for propelling a food crisis into a famine in four out of the six worst affected countries. Within the literature, there is a tendency for writers to emphasize the relative contribution of factors within their own disciplines. So far the literature on the responses, both within country and internationally, is comprised of eye witness accounts by journalists and evaluations by aid agencies of their performance. The international response by governments and the public was massive and unprecedented, but the response by governments, indigenous NGO's and the public within affected countries is often overlooked by the journalistic literature. Generalizations about "the African food crisis" have obscured the considerable diversity amongst countries. This is well illustrated by the experiences of Ethiopia, Kenya and Botswana. This diversity indicates the biased perspectives that arise from focussing on the extreme famines, as in Ethiopia. Research priorities should include studies of systems that coped during the crisis, historical analysis of the crisis, the way early warning information is processed within bureaucratic institutions, environmental degradation and fully integrated analysis of food production and consumption systems.     

Rainfall and flooding in the Guayas river basin and its effects on the incidence of malaria 1982–1985

Inasmuch as health is at cross purposes with illness, suffering, disability and death, it is clear that all measures that are adopted with foresight to reduce the repercussions of natural disasters have consequences for health     

Food acquisition during the African drought of 1983–1984: A study of Kenyan herders

In 1983 and 1984, drought spread across the northern rangelands of Kenya and herders in lowland Samburu lost substantial portions of their livestock. Food aid arrived when 50 to 75% of the cattle had already died, and after poorer pastoralists were hungry enough to sell their remaining productive animals. No pastoralists died of the immediate effects of the drought, but many were so impoverished that their longer-term prospects for remaining as herders look dim.
This essay discusses the timing and content of famine relief as it applies both to Samburu and other food-stressed areas. It focuses on the process of food acquisition during the northern Kenyan drought itself. The more "indigenous" food strategies of herding, hunting and gathering offered limited benefits. Equally, however, commercial channels for procuring food proved inadequate. Herders could not reliably sell animals to obtain cash for purchased food, nor were the grain and sugar staples always available even when cash was on hand. Lacking means to provide for themselves, Samburu came to depend on varied kinds of handouts.     

Malnutrition and Poverty in the Early Stages of Famine: North Darfur, 1988–90

In this article we report findings on the relationship between malnutrition and poverty during a period of acute food insecurity in Darfur, Sudan. Children of rich and poor families were equally likely to be malnourished, which is explained in terms of people's responses to the threat of famine. This finding has important implications for targeting interventions in the early stages of famine. Appropriate interventions at the early stages of famine are livelihood and income support to the most vulnerable. The entitlement theory of famine causation assumes that the poor are most vulnerable, and become malnourished and die during famines. In this article we show that this assumption does not hold. Even though poverty is the root cause of malnutrition, it does not follow that anthropometric status can be used to target individual poor families, or even that targeting the poor is appropriate in famine situations.     

Famine, gold and guns: the suri of southwestern ethiopia, 1985-91

Over the past few years, the Suri have lived through a deep ecological and social crisis without substantial external aid from either the Ethiopian government or international aid agencies. They have experienced drought, cattle disease and an increasing level of violent conflict with their neighbours, leading to the severe disruption of their traditional agro-pastoral subsistence system and settlement pattern. Through migration, the exploitation of gold resources and investment in automatic weapons, however, they have managed virtually a full recovery of their economy and society.     

Selective feeding programmes in Ethiopia and East Sudan–1985/1986

A survey of thirty-four feeding programmes in Ethiopia and East Sudan was undertaken. Wie differences were found between the two countries and also within Ethiopia. Irrelugar general ration distribution was commonplace in Ethiopia, thus placing an extra strain on selective feeding programmes. The principal admission criteria to Selected Feeding Programmes (SFPs) were weight for height categories. The cut-off stages of the emergency. Useful compasirions between programmes were hampered by such differences, as well as by the different methods of reporting data.
The types of food usd in programmes depended on availability and included high energyu drinks, poridges, take-home pre-mixes and sometimes indigenous foods. A large number of foods e.g. cornedbedef, chicken paté, noodles, da4tes etc. Some added interesting variety and added nutritional value to the diet, while others caused more problems than they solved due to their low acceptability, inappropriate packaging, limited accompanying information and complex an costly preparation. The imlementation of food dination policies by donors and consignees regarding appropriate foodstuffs and their recommended use was considered to be the major solution to this problem.     

Shelters from the storm: A note on the geography of hurricane shelters in Barbados, 1982

Barbados, a small island of 166 square miles in the Caribbean, with a population of 246,416 persons, has a total of 177 emergency shelters with a known capacity of 20,623 persons. The average shelter capacity is 117 persons and the total known shelter capacity represents 8.4% of the population.
The spatial arrangement of the grade I shelters, as seen relative to the 1980 population census map by grouped enumeration districts, reveals that there are many areas and persons, who, in time of emergency, will not be able to avail themselves of the protection of a shelter.     

Brief description of the effects on health of the earthquake of 3rd March 1985 – Chile

Chile is one of the most seismically active countries in the world. Earthquakes are periodic phenomena that test the quality of construction, as well as the capacity of the population to adapt to sharp changes in socio-environ-mental conditions.
Experience in this regard has demonstrated the desirability of being prepared, at the institutional level and at the level of the general population, to carry out investigations and to begin measures to cope with these catastrophes, in order to reduce damage and the interruption of normal life to a minimum.
In this paper some general aspects of the social and health impacts of the earthquake of 3rd March 1985 are examined. The shock affected the central area of Chile which contains 61% of the total population.
The earthquake occurred at 19:50 hours on Sunday, 3rd March, and was of magnitude 7.8. Recorded personal losses included 180 dead and 2,575 injured, and around 200,000 damaged or destroyed dwellings. The destruction also affected the infrastructure of the public services, such as energy, road, telecommunications and water supply, giving rise to an emergency in the provision of assistance.
Special reference is made to the effects, on the health care infrastructure, drinking water supply and, less important, on the behavior of some communicable intestinal diseases that are highly endemic in the area under study.     

先秦时期农业减灾救荒思想研究

我国先秦时期形成了较为系统的农业减灾救荒思想,它包含灾前预防思想、农业减灾思想和灾后救荒思想三大部分。中国古代的减灾和救荒两大思想体系由此成为有机整体,这在三代(夏、商、周时期)和春秋战国时期农业生产的转型发展过程中产生了积极的促进作用。研究这一时期的农业减灾救荒思想对于后世的防灾减灾极具借鉴意义。     

The Spanish toxic oil syndrome: Some explanations for the pathology and an appraisal of the similarities with other episodes of food adulteration

In 1981 in Madrid, a new disease was identified, and attributed to the fraudulent sale of adulterated, industrial-quality oil as olive oil. The competing hypotheses for the clinical symptoms and tissue changes are reviewed but it is also important to note the general similarities between this epidemic and those other incidents where food adulteration has presented an acute hazard.     

Disasters and disabled persons: An examination of the safety needs of a neglected minority

Disasters do not affect everyone in the same way. Safety needs of the ten per cnet of the population who are disabled prior to disaster must be ascertained; contingency plans and preparations should be made to ensure that disabled persons. Consideration of the safety needs of disabled persons in disasters seems to have beenlargely neglected by emergency services and those voluntary and statutory organizations directly concerned with disablement.     

Does nutritional surveillance have a role to play in early warning of food crisis and in the management of relief operations?*

A major area of investment in data collection in developing countries has been that of nutritional surveillance and monitoring. From recent debate it is clear that there is currently no consensus on the potential role of nutritional status as an early warning indicator. The author presents a synthesis of the broad spectrum of views on the role nutritional surveillance could or should have in early warning. Conceptual problems and technical difficulties are reviewed in the light of recent experiences in Africa and Asia. The author raises a number of issues for future discussion in this ongoing debate.