Entitlements, coping mechanisms and indicators of access to food: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

Vulnerability to famine and traditional responses to food insecurity in Wollo Region, Ethiopia are described. The timeliness of anthropometric and socio-economic indicators of access to food is then assessed, using data collected in Wollo by Save the Children Fund during 1987–88, a period of drought and subsequent food insecurity. The movements of different indicators are then examined for evidence of correspondence at sub-district level. The author concludes that although anthropometric status does not respond as early as crop yield or grain price, a deterioration in anthropometric status is detectable at a stage when livestock and migration indicators show little or no change and mortality rate remains unaffected. At sub-district level, changes in different indicators are not well-correlated.     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

Operational value of anthropometric surveillance in famine early warning and relief: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

In this article I examine the operational implications of the findings reported in 'Entitlements, Coping Mechanisms and Indicators of Access to Food: Wollo Region, Ethiopia, 1987–88' (Kelly, 1992). The usefulness of anthropometric and other indicators for early warning and relief planning in Wollo is assessed by comparing the findings of Save the Children Fund's nutritional surveillance programme with those of the Early Warning and Planning Service of the Ethiopian government's Relief and Rehabilitation Commission. Case studies are used to illustrate the value of anthropometric and other indicators for targeting relief food and monitoring its effects. The costs of monitoring various indicators are then considered, and the cost of the Save the Children Fund programme is compared with that of other programmes. It is argued that in Wollo, anthropometric surveillance is a cost-effective means of improving early warning, planning, targeting and monitoring.     

War and Food Security in Eritrea and Ethiopia, 1998–2000

This paper examines the 1998–2000 'border' war between Eritrea and Ethiopia and its continuing legacies from the perspective of food security.¹ Focusing on the food crisis that hit both countries during the same period and was allowed to develop into a famine in southeast Ethiopia, it argues that this was linked with the war in more ways than hitherto recognised. Such connections can be appreciated only by taking a longer-term view of the decline of the rural economy of which this food crisis was part, factoring in the role played by this and other conflicts that have flared up in the region. An analysis of this kind might have helped donors and aid agencies to respond more effectively both to short-term humanitarian needs in the midst of an inter-state war and to the need for longer-term support for food security in a region beset by endemic conflict.     

Cross-Border Relief Operations in Eritrea and Tigray

Cross-border relief operations to non-government controlled regions of Eritrea and Tigray have been on-going since before the 1984/85 famine in Ethiopia became international news. Little is officially known about the character and scale of these operations, however, as a result of their politically sensitive nature. The background, assets and limitations of the operations are examined, with a focus on the period 1985–1988. The report also addresses issues arising from the delivery of assistance in the context of so-called internal wars against the central government.     

Archetypes of famine and response

Famines have long been characterised by rapidly shifting dynamics: sudden price spirals, sharp increases in mortality, the media frenzy that often accompanies such spikes, the swift scaling up of aid flows, and a subsequent decline in interest. In arguing that these aspects of famine have been largely ignored in recent years due to attention to the famine process', this paper attempts to make these dynamics more explicit by applying systems thinking. It uses standard archetypes of systems thinking to explain six situations—watch, price spiral, aid magnet, media frenzy, overshoot, and peaks—that are present in many famine contexts. It illustrates their application with examples from crises in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Sudan. The paper contends that the systems approach offers a tool for analysing the larger patterns in famines and for pinpointing the most appropriate responses to them, based on an awareness of the dynamics of the crises.     

Drought and famine relief in Ethiopia

This item was filed by an independent observer in March 1983. The overall context given of the relief operation remained valid up to at least the mid-year point, with one well-publicised exception. Late in April, the town of Korem, in northern Wollo region, was seized for several days by the Tigray People's Liberation Front. The famine relief operation was completely disrupted, and the shelter population dispersed. The official relief programme resumed slowly after some 6 to 7 weeks; of the relief workers captured by the TPLF, the expatriate contingent was released in Sudan in the second week of June.     

The structure of regional conflict in northern ethiopia

A conventional view of regional conflict in Ethiopia is that it is the result of the domination and exploitation of conquered peoples by the central Ethiopian state. The pattern of regional conflict does not, however, fit this explanation. The most important threat to the central government today comes not from the recently conquered pastoral and sedentary peoples of southern Ethiopia but from the northern highlands (Eritrea, Tigray, northern Wollo and Gonder) which have been associated with the Ethiopian state for many centuries. A more satisfactory explanation needs to take into account both the political and economic bases of revolt in northern Ethiopia following the 1974 revolution. Politically, the people were alienated from a national government of which they had previously often been a dominant part. Economically, the progressive marginalisation and agricultural degradation of the northern highlands was accelerated by the policies of the post-1974 government, policies which brought immediate and important benefits to the southern regions.     

The African food crisis of 1982-1986*

The crisis cannot be attributed to any one cause, but rather it was the product of a number of interacting factors whose precise combination varied between countries. Drought, internal political and economic factors and an unfavourable external economic environment were significant contributory factors. Civil war and externally financed insurgency were primarily responsible for propelling a food crisis into a famine in four out of the six worst affected countries. Within the literature, there is a tendency for writers to emphasize the relative contribution of factors within their own disciplines. So far the literature on the responses, both within country and internationally, is comprised of eye witness accounts by journalists and evaluations by aid agencies of their performance. The international response by governments and the public was massive and unprecedented, but the response by governments, indigenous NGO's and the public within affected countries is often overlooked by the journalistic literature. Generalizations about "the African food crisis" have obscured the considerable diversity amongst countries. This is well illustrated by the experiences of Ethiopia, Kenya and Botswana. This diversity indicates the biased perspectives that arise from focussing on the extreme famines, as in Ethiopia. Research priorities should include studies of systems that coped during the crisis, historical analysis of the crisis, the way early warning information is processed within bureaucratic institutions, environmental degradation and fully integrated analysis of food production and consumption systems.     

Diagnosis of famine: a discursive contribution

This paper recommends the incorporation of an additional discursive dimension in famine diagnosis that draws on the number of reports referring to famine in the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)'s ReliefWeb database. Present‐day diagnostic tools already apply the principle of triangulation with multiple indicators; the addition of a discursive diagnostic dimension would enable even more refined analysis, allowing more forcefully for the incorporation of the aspect of change. The newly devised discursive famine indices are used both to identify famines—in Ethiopia (2000), Malawi (2002), and Somalia (2011)—and to analyse key socioeconomic determinants of famine. The study finds that income (or poverty) together with state fragility appear to be the major determinants of cross‐country variations in famine reporting, while political regimes do not appear to have any independent effect. The indices appear largely robust with regard to concerns about cross‐country, semantic, and temporal biases.     

The political economy of complex emergency and recovery in northern Ethiopia

During the 1980s Ethiopia experienced the effects of conflict, drought and famine on a scale far greater than many CPEs elsewhere. In May 1991, after the decisive defeat of the military dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam by the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and after decades of civil war, drought and famine, Ethiopia faced the prospects of peace and of much needed development. This paper explores both Ethiopia's experience of conflict and humanitarian intervention in areas of Tigray held by the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front (TPLF) during the 1980s, and its experience of post-conflict rehabilitation and reconstruction in the 1990s. It first deals with the roots of the conflicts within Ethiopia: political marginalisation, heavy state intervention and highly extractive relations between state and peasants, inappropriate and failed development policies, ethnic identity and the politicisation of ethnicity. The Mengistu regime's counter-insurgency measures are then contrasted with the policies and programmes of the TPLF, Ethiopia's most effective opposition movement and the leading element in the EPRDF, and its achievements in mobilising popular support: its establishment of democratically elected structures of local governance and its famine relief distribution programme.     

III A Disaster for Whom?: Local Interests and International Donors During Famine Among the Dinka of Sudan

The 1985–88 famine amongst the Dinka is described and shown to have been rooted in the long term exploitation of the south by northern Sudanese and international interests. This process of exploitation served, and continues to serve, important functions for particular groups. Some of the ways in which the 1985–88 famine was functional – for the central government, the army and merchants – are outlined and the implications for relief operations considered. It is argued that international donors had considerable "room for manoeuvre" which they could have used to adopt more effective policies. They only did so after the worst of the mortality was over.     

Knowledge and Power: A Critique of an International Relief Operation

Exploring an alternative way to approach famine relief interventions, this paper draws on the work of French philosopher Michel Foucault and David Keen's recent work on south-west Sudan. It suggests that different discourses on 'famine' can lead to the dominance of certain kinds of institutional practices, and the prioritisation of special kinds of knowledge, at the expense of other modes of understanding and action. Using the case of the relief operation to Tigrayan refugees in eastern Sudan in 1984/5, the paper examines the specific ways in which 'power' was elaborated in the midst of the operation, and the manner in which institutional practices — designed to save as many lives as possible — influenced the reaction of international agencies to the spontaneous repatriation of the Tigrayans back to Ethiopia.     

New policy directions in disaster preparedness and response in ethiopia

Following the fall of the government of Mengistu Haile Mariam in May 1991, the Transitional Government of Ethiopia has initiated new policy directions in relation to national disaster preparedness and response. Drawing on the lessons learnt from more than a decade's experience of famine and famine relief work in the north of the country, policies are emerging from the reconstituted Relief and Rehabilitation Commission that represent a new agenda for the conduct of assistance programs. These changes have important implications for the relationship between the Transitional Government, international aid organizations and local communities.     

The Ethiopian crisis of 1999-2000: lessons learned,questions unanswered

During 1999-2000, Ethiopia was brought to the edge of a major disaster, with some 10 million people estimated to be in need offood assistance at the height of the crisis. A repeat of the catastrophic famine of 1984-5 was avoided, but the numbers of people affected, the loss of life and the destruction of livelihoods made this one of the most serious crises in the Horn of Africa in the past 15 years. The humanitarian community has been slow to recognise the lessons of 1999-2000, and there have been surprisingly few attempts to conduct a serious, post-event evaluation of the overall crisis and response. The label famine averted' seems to summarise the crisis to the satisfaction of most parties involved. This paper reviews the crisis, the events that led up to it and the response effort. It examines thefactors that contributed to making this crisis so serious, in order to draw conclusions and note issues that are relevant to current thinking about disaster preparedness and response - in Ethiopia and elsewhere. Some of the lessons learned from the 1999-2000 crisis are not new. However, the veryfact that mistakes have been repeated should be a lesson to the humanitarian community.     

Mortality and morbidity in refugee camps in eastern Sudan: 1985-90

Civil war has disrupted life in Ethiopia since the 1960s and many people have sought refuge in Eastern Sudan, particularly during the famine emergency of 1984–85. UNHCR has provided the main financial support for the refugee programme, but began scaling down operations in 1990. Nearly 300,000 refugees still live in camps and benefit from food and health programmes. Health services are co-ordinated by the Sudanese Refugee Health Unit which operates a centralised health and nutrition surveillance system with the co-operation of the NGOs responsible for health care in the camps. A revision of the monthly reporting system and the establishment of a computer database in 1990 provided an opportunity to review the situation in the camps over the five years since the emergency. Child death rates for example, appear to have been reduced to levels below those expected in rural Africa. Patterns of mortality, morbidity, and nutritional status are outlined here and point to the general effectiveness of the health care programme. The surveillance system can, however, be used to identify those camps which have persistent problems, while monthly comparisons with the situation in previous years can provide early warning of deteriorating conditions.     

Famine early warning systems and the use of socio-economic data

Famine early warning systems using socio-economic data suffer from several problems. One is that they cannot, and do not attempt to, distinguish between qualitatively different kinds of famine. The second is that they cannot predict these either accurately or early enough. This is because all the socio-economic indicators produce both false positives and false negatives, the indicators themselves are "late" and because interpretation of the data is complex and time-consuming. The third problem is that within the context of a famine that is occurring, these indicators cannot predict excess mortality. The argument is illustrated with examples from the 1984–5 famine in Darfur, Sudan.     

Climate variability,political crises,and historical population displacements in Ethiopia

Abstract

El Niño events from the 1970s through the 1990s caused extended droughts in Ethiopia. These droughts were followed by famine and political turmoil that resulted in radical changes of government, secession, and a massive program of population redistribution. Cartographic analysis of Ethiopian census data from 1984 and 1994 shows changes in demographic patterns. The consequences of government-imposed migration policies, whose catalyst was the climate variability caused by repeated El Niño events, were changes in the ethnic composition of certain Ethiopian regions and changes in the geographic pattern of population growth.     

Monitoring and responding to famine: lessons from the 1984 - 85 food crisis in kenya

The geographic and temporal scale of institutional responses to food crises suggests three levels of food information or famine early warning system: a seasonal national food balance, baseline data on household food poverty and estimates of vulnerability to climatic and economic variations, and targeted interventions based on individual entitlements and food deprivation. Stimulating the demand for food information, beyond the need to forecast famines, is a crucial factor in the adoption of improved monitoring systems. Issues in the design of food information systems are illustrated by the experience in Kenya in 1984–85. The government of Kenya responded to the 1984 drought and ensuing food crisis to prevent widespread famine, largely through timely commercial imports of yellow maize. Although qualified by the nature of the drought and Kenya's economic development, this success story emphasises the need to improve food information systems.     

Getting the Scale Right: A Comparison of Analytical Methods for Vulnerability Assessment and Household-level Targeting

This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue, and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities.