Barriers and opportunities for adapting to climate change on the North Coast of São Paulo,Brazil

Regional Environmental Change - This paper examines barriers and opportunities for climate change adaptation in an urban coastal setting where adaptation is in its infancy. It draws on a diagnostic...     

Economic water management decisions: trade-offs between conflicting objectives in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco watershed

Hydro-economic models can measure the economic effects of different reservoir operating rules, environmental restrictions, maintenance of ecosystems, technical constraints, institutional constraints, land use change, and climate change. To determine the optimal economic water allocation, for its main uses in the sub-middle of the São Francisco River Basin, a hydro-economic optimization model was developed and applied. Demand curves were used rather than fixed requirements for water resources. The results show that operation rules of reservoirs and institutional constraints, such as priorities for human consumption, have high impacts on costs and benefits of the principal economic uses in the study area. Especially, costs of environmental demands, like minimum ecological river flow, have high impacts on the water resource management. Scarcity costs of irrigation users associated with maintaining ecosystems and environmental constraints are particularly significant. The results from this study provide a better understanding of the water trade-offs for future policymaking and efficient water management. Policymaking for the water resources should consider the food-water-energy-environment nexus at a regional scale to minimize environmental and economic cost under water scarcity and land use change.     

The effects of air pollution and meteorological parameters on respiratory morbidity during the summer in São Paulo City

Effects of meteorological variables and air pollutants on child respiratory morbidity are investigated during two consecutive summers (December-March 1992/1993 and 1993/1994) at the Metropolitan Area of S?o Paulo (MASP), Brazil. The MASP, with almost 17 million inhabitants, is considered the most populous region in South America. Due to warmer temperatures, increased rainfall and consequent low levels of air pollutants during the summer compared to winter, less attention has been paid to epidemiological studies during this season, especially in tropical urban areas such as S?o Paulo. In the present work, principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to medical end environmental data to identify patterns relating child morbidity, meteorological variables and air pollutants during the summer. The following pollutant concentrations are examined: SO2, inhalable particulate matter (PM10), and O3. The meteorological variables investigated are air temperature, water vapor (water vapor density) and solar radiation. Although low correlation between respiratory morbidity and environmental variables are, in general, observed for the entire dataset, the PCA method indicates that child morbidity is positively associated with O3 for the 1992/1993 summer. This pattern is identified in the third principal component (PC3), which explains about 19% of the total variance of all data in this summer. However, the 1993/1994 summer shows a more complex association between both groups, suggesting stronger ties with meteorological variables. Marked changes in synoptic conditions from the end of January to end of March of the 1993/1994 summer seem to have played an important role in modulating respiratory morbidity. A detailed examination of meteorological conditions in that period indicates that prefrontal (postfrontal), hot (cold) and dry (wet) days favored the observed decrease (increase) of respiratory morbidity.     

Artisanal fisheries of the Itaparica reservoir,São Francisco River,Brazil: socioeconomic profile,environmental dynamics,and management recommendations

Currently, artisanal fisheries in fresh water reservoirs have been losing ground to commercial fish farming and a great deal of fishery resources are being threatened by human interventions, such as reservoir management and increasing net-cage aquaculture. This study aims to understand the impacts of environmental changes on fishery resources and analyse the migratory fish breeding season as a missing link for fishery management in the semi-arid area of the São Francisco River Basin. Among the 870 fishermen operating in the Pernambuco part of the Itaparica Reservoir, 10% were interviewed and affirmed that fish stocks have been compromised due to the closed fishing period’s incoherence, exotic species insertion, and changes to the river flow caused by reservoir construction and operation. A significant correlation was observed between the Reproductive Activity Index (RAI) and precipitation (p?=?0.745) as well as between the RAI and the river’s flow (p?=??0.909). This shows how important it is to consider both the semi-arid climate setting and reservoir operation in determining the closed period which should safeguard fish reproduction. Monitoring the fish reproduction period and research on the reproductive biology of native fish species is needed in the São Francisco River Basin’s different stretches in order to guarantee valuable fish stocks and fisheries maintenance. Integrated action between the fish resource users, civil society, and federal bodies/agencies is essential in order to mitigate impacts and improve fish production systems, not only in Brazil, but in other regions experiencing a similar scenario.     

The impact of global change on economic values of water for Public Irrigation Schemes at the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil

Economic values of water for the main Public Irrigation Schemes in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco River Basin, in northeastern Brazil, are determined in this study using an integration of a global agro-economic land and water use (MAgPIE) with a local economic model (Positive Mathematical Programming). As in the latter, the water values depend on the crops grown, and as Brazilian agriculture is strongly influenced by the global market, we used a regionalized version of the global model adapted to the region in order to simulate the crop land use, which is in turn determined by changes in global demand, trade barriers, and climate. The allocation of sugarcane and fruit crops projected with climate change by the global model, showed an impact on the average yields and on the water costs in the main schemes resulting in changes in the water values locally. The economic values for all schemes in the baseline year were higher than the water prices established for agricultural use in the basin. In the future, these water values will be higher in all the schemes. The highest water values currently and in the future were identified in municipalities with a significant proportion of area growing irrigated sugarcane. Being aware of current water values of each user in a baseline year and in a projected future under global climate and socioeconomic changes, decision makers should improve water allocation policies at local scale, in order to avoid conflicts and unsustainable development in the future.     

Integrated hydro- and wind power generation: a game changer towards environmental flow in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin?

Many renewable resources for the generation of electricity, such as hydropower and wind power, are dependent on climatic factors. Reservoirs have been created to overcome the stochastic nature of river flows and to make water supply more reliable. However, reservoirs are affecting the ecological status of river ecosystems, e.g., by modifying the flow regime, triggering discussions regarding the discharge of reservoirs. In Brazil’s northeast region, the installed capacity for wind power generation has increased substantially in recent years. Setting up a modeling system for simulating wind power and hydropower generation in this study, it is analyzed whether wind power generation, peaking in the dry season, can help to achieve a more environmentally oriented flow regime in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin. Simulated higher discharges from reservoirs during the rainy season and lower discharges during the dry season, representing a more natural flow regime, will reduce hydropower generation in the dry season. Under recent conditions, the resulting gap in electricity generation can only be partially covered by wind power. A large share needs to be generated by thermal power plants or be imported from other regions in Brazil. The planned future increase in installed wind power capacity can change this picture; the demand for electricity generated by thermal power plants and imported will decrease. Adopting an integrated approach for hydropower and wind power generation, the flow regime in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin can be modified to improve the ecological status of the river system.     

Federalism,water, and (de)centralization in Brazil: the case of the São Francisco River water diversion

Regional Environmental Change - The Brazilian Northeastern semi-arid region’s history has been characterized by drought, water scarcity, and poor living conditions. For the last...     

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

Regional Environmental Change - Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential...