Land use change in California,USA: Nonpoint source water quality impacts

California’s population increased 25% between 1980 and 1990, resulting in rapid and extensive urbanization. Of a total 123,000 ha urbanized in 42 of the state’s 58 counties between 1984 and 1990, an estimated 13% occurred on irrigated prime farmland, and 48% on wildlands or fallow marginal farmlands. Sixty-six percent of all new irrigated farmland put into production between 1984 and 1990 was of lesser quality than the prime farmland taken out of production by urbanization. Factors dictating the agricultural development of marginal farmlands include the availability and price of water and land, agricultural commodity prices, and technical innovations such as drip irrigation systems that impact the feasibility and costs of production. The increasing amount of marginal farmland being put into production could have significant water quality consequences because marginal lands are generally steeper, have more erodible soils, poorer drainage, and require more fertilizer than prime farmlands. Although no data exist to test our hypothesis, and numerous variables preclude definitive predictions, the evidence suggests that new irrigated marginal lands can increase nonpoint source (NPS) pollution for a given size area by an order of magnitude in some cases.     

Pluralism,The Ethical Matrix,and Coming to Conclusions

The ethical matrix approach was developed by Prof Ben Mepham and his colleagues at the University of Nottingham in the early 1990s. Since then the approach has received increasing attention and has been used by several researchers in different projects related to assessing ethical impacts of different food production technologies and other policy options of societal concern. The ethical matrix is sometimes understood simply as a checklist of ethical concerns, but might also be seen as a guide to coming to conclusions on moral questions. The problem I discuss in this paper relates to how using the ethical matrix method as a decision guide can be combined with respecting pluralism. The aim of the paper is to suggest a framework making it possible to – at the same time – enhance public justification of judgments and respect pluralism. I argue that pluralism is fundamental to the ethical matrix approach; I distinguish between intuitionist principled pluralism and societal value pluralism; and I show how both kinds of pluralism imply restrictions on how conclusions can be made. No substantive moral decision principles can be allowed. Still, I argue, decision principles of a more epistemological or procedural character can be acceptable even within pluralism. The pragmatist principle of inquiry is defended as an account of moral problem solving compatible with both principled pluralism and value pluralism. When an ethical matrix is used within such a participatory inquiry process substantive conclusions can be drawn.     

Conservation of Biodiversity: How Are We Doing?

A question rarely raised in discussions on biodiversity conservation, but surely the biggest question of all, is “How much time do we have left before the mass extinction underway surpasses our best efforts to contain it?” This prompts a further prime question because—and unlike all other problems, whether environmental or otherwise—the biotic crisis threatens to leave a severely impoverished planet for millions of years ahead; “Why do we not undertake the necessary actions to get on top of the problem before it gets on top of us?”     

Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate

This research examines whether a long-run stationary equilibrium relationship holds between economic activity and the consumption of crude steel within the UK. Using the theory of fractionally integrated and cointegrated processes, and allowing for the possibility that the equilibrium path changes abruptly at occasional points in time, it is possible to determine if steel consumption and economic activity follow a common stochastic trend or whether the two series randomly drift apart over time. Evidence is found to support such a long term relationship. This result is at odds with the conclusions drawn by previous researchers in the area. The reason for this difference may be due to these researchers concentrating only on I(0) and I(1) specifications, without consideration of fractional possibilities and also to a failure to account for structural breaks in the equilibrium relationship. Such conclusions are made within the framework of the ARFIMA methodology that yields reliable inferences on the degree of fractional integration and cointegration. Critical values for fractional contegration with an ARFIMA model in the presence of structural breaks are also derived in this paper.     

Evaluation of desiccant wheel and prime mover as combined cooling,heating, and power system

In this research heating, cooling and electrical demands of a residential tower are evaluated for Iran various weather conditions. For this purpose, several cities are selected as the representative of the specific weather conditions. To meet the cooling demand, desiccant cooling system plus alternative systems are applied. To analyze desiccant wheel, outlet humidity and temperature have been modeled. Also, the effect of rotational speed and regeneration temperature on entropy generation of the desiccant wheel has been studied based on the obtained results. It is deduced that the entropy generation may be increased by increasing the regeneration temperature and the rotational speed. To regenerate the desiccant wheel, to meet the electrical demand and also to provide heating load, prime mover in the form of internal combustion engine is selected. Since prime movers do not operate in the full load, their performance in the partial load has been evaluated. By taking into consideration the required regeneration heating, the number of required prime movers has been calculated based on the regeneration temperature and partial load for each city. The results show that the number of required prime movers is increased by increasing the regeneration temperature of the wheel.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF GROUND WATER USE AND REPLENISHMENT1

A statistical technique which offers considerable promise in ground water studies is the fitting of polynomial trend-surfaces to ground water data and studying the variations in the surfaces and the residuals from these surfaces over a period of time. The application of trend-surface analysis to ground water study is based on the premise that the piezometric surface or water table can be approximated by a mathematically computed polynomial surface of the water levels of the wells in the aquifer. The evaluation of trend surface analysis application in ground water investigations was made up essentially of two considerations; a study of the relationship existing between the trend surfaces and the actual ground water surface and a study of the potential use of the residuals from the trend-surfaces to assist in the location of favorable sites for future development of ground water resources. The conclusions on aquifer behavior drawn from the trend surface analysis were compared with conclusions drawn from a concurrent survey of ground water conditions carried out independently of this investigation. This comparison provided the basis for the critical examination of the application of trend-surface analysis in ground water investigations.     

The use and abuse of scientific studies

In response to Evelyn Pluhar'sWho Can Be Morally Obligated to Be a Vegetarian? in this journal issue, the author has read all of Pluhar's citations for the accuracy of her claims and had these read by an independent nutritionist. Detailed analysis of Pluhar's argument shows that she attempts to make her case by consistent misappropriation of the findings and conclusions of the studies she cites. Pluhar makes sweeping generalizations from scanty data, ignores causal explanations given by scientists, equates hypothesis with fact, draws false cause conclusions from studies, and in one case claims a conclusion opposite of what the scientist published. Such poor reasoning cannot be the basis of an argument for moral vegetarianism. A broader search of the literature and attention to reviews and textbooks in nutrition shows that each of Pluhar's claims is suspect or incorrect. Pluhar has not undermined my central claims: even if animals have certain rights and well-planned vegetarian diets are safe in complex industrialized societies, these diets cannot be so regarded if the presuppositions of high levels of wealth, education, and medical care do not exist; and, women, children, the aged and some ill persons are at greater risk on restrictive vegan diets. Thus, any duty of moral vegetarianism is not categorical but provisional in nature.     

The hidden costs of relocating sand and gravel mines

Mining of construction aggregate is often unwelcome near communities because of its disamenities or because it can destroy prime farmland and displace other desirable land uses. Such conflicts have led to prohibitions against mining near cities or on high-value farmland, causing these operations to be relocated to more distant locations. The cost of this relocation may go unnoticed if they are indirect, diffused and rise gradually over time, but they may be significant due to the high transportation cost of moving these materials long distances.     

The uranium and nuclear industries in China

This article reviews the available information on the uranium industry and the beginning of nuclear power in China. Few details of China's uranium industry have hitherto been published in the West. The broad conclusions reached are that China is faced with severe energy shortages for the foreseeable future; nuclear power will help to solve this problem but the timing and extent of its contribution are uncertain. The central question of civil nuclear policy is whether or not to use imported technology, although satisfactory development of the uranium industry probably will require foreign assistance. The principle conestraint in this regard is foreign exchange. To help overcome this problem the Chinese are now, for the first time, offering uranium on the international market.     

Determining Ecological Equivalence in Service-to-Service Scaling of Salt Marsh Restoration

The amount of ecological restoration required to mitigate or compensate for environmental injury or habitat loss is often based on the goal of achieving ecological equivalence. However, few tools are available for estimating the extent of restoration required to achieve habitat services equivalent to those that were lost. This paper describes habitat equivalency analysis (HEA), a habitat-based “service-to-service” approach for determining the amount of restoration needed to compensate for natural resource losses, and examines issues in its application in the case of salt marsh restoration. The scientific literature indicates that although structural attributes such as vegetation may recover within a few years, there is often a significant lag in the development of ecological processes such as nutrient cycling that are necessary for a fully functioning salt marsh. Moreover, natural variation can make recovery trajectories difficult to define and predict for many habitat services. HEA is an excellent tool for scaling restoration actions because it reflects this ecological variability and complexity. At the same time, practitioners must recognize that conclusions about the amount of restoration needed to provide ecological services equivalent to those that are lost will depend critically on the ecological data and assumptions that are used in the HEA calculation.     

Identifying Conservation and Restoration Priorities for Saproxylic and Old-Growth Forest Species: A Case Study in Switzerland

Saproxylic (dead-wood-associated) and old-growth species are among the most threatened species in European forest ecosystems, as they are susceptible to intensive forest management. Identifying areas with particular relevant features of biodiversity is of prime concern when developing species conservation and habitat restoration strategies and in optimizing resource investments. We present an approach to identify regional conservation and restoration priorities even if knowledge on species distribution is weak, such as for saproxylic and old-growth species in Switzerland. Habitat suitability maps were modeled for an expert-based selection of 55 focal species, using an ecological niche factor analyses (ENFA). All the maps were then overlaid, in order to identify potential species’ hotspots for different species groups of the 55 focal species (e.g., birds, fungi, red-listed species). We found that hotspots for various species groups did not correspond. Our results indicate that an approach based on “richness hotspots” may fail to conserve specific species groups. We hence recommend defining a biodiversity conservation strategy prior to implementing conservation/restoration efforts in specific regions. The conservation priority setting of the five biogeographical regions in Switzerland, however, did not differ when different hotspot definitions were applied. This observation emphasizes that the chosen method is robust. Since the ENFA needs only presence data, this species prediction method seems to be useful for any situation where the species distribution is poorly known and/or absence data are lacking. In order to identify priorities for either conservation or restoration efforts, we recommend a method based on presence data only, because absence data may reflect factors unrelated to species presence.     

Regulated flushing in a gravel-bed river for channel habitat maintenance: A Trinity River fisheries case study

The operation of Trinity and Lewiston Dams on the Trinity River in northern California in the United States, combined with severe watershed erosion, has jeopardized the existence of prime salmonid fisheries. Extreme streamflow depletion and stream sedimentation below Lewiston have resulted in heavy accumulation of coarse sediment on riffle gravel and filling of streambed pools, causing the destruction of spawning, nursery, and overwintering habitat for prized chinook salmon (Salmo gairdnerii) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha). Proposals to restore and maintain the degraded habitat include controlled one-time remedial peak flows or annual maintenance peak flows designed to flush the spawning gravel and scour the banks, deltas, and pools. The criteria for effective channel restoration or maintenance by streambed flushing and scouring are examined here, as well as the mechanics involved.The liabilities of releasing mammoth scouring-flushing flows approximating the magnitude that preceded reservoir construction make this option unviable. The resulting damage to fish habitat established under the postproject streamflow regime, as well as damage to human settlements in the floodplain, would be unacceptable, as would the opportunity costs to hydroelectric and irrigation water users. The technical feasibility of annual maintenance flushing flows depends upon associated mechanical and structural measures, particularly instream maintenance dredging of deep pools and construction of a sediment control dam on a tributary where watershed erosion is extreme. The cost effectiveness of a sediment dam with a limited useful economic life, combined with perpetual maintenance dredging, is questionable.     

Lake management techniques in Florida,USA: Costs and water quality effects

Economic evaluations of restored or enhanced lakes in Florida indicated gravity drawdown was the least expensive action, whereas effluent diversion was 10,000 times more costly on a per hectare basis, with the other lake treatment costs occurring in the following order: gravity drawdown < grass carp introduction < mechanical drawdown < aeration < stormwater control = drawdown-dredging < effluent diversion. Within a particular treatment category, the costs spanned approximately one and one half orders of magnitude. Contrary to the abundant cost data, which permitted an economic analysis, inappropriate statistical design and lack of commitment toward sampling Florida's restored lakes undermines attempts to understand long-term water quality responses to various enhancement techniques. Using Lake Tohopekaliga as a case study, ordinary statistical tests produced contradictory and unreliable interpretations on the effectiveness of drawdown and phosphorus removal at sewage treatment plants in improving the trophic state index. This emphasizes the need for more robust statistical approaches and more detailed data collection in evaluating lake restoration activities It is unfortunate for Florida's lake restoration program that quantitative conclusions based on inferential statistics, replete with tests of assumptions, is limited to very few lakes     

Problems with using overlay mapping for planning and their implications for geographic information systems

As part of the planning process, maps of natural factors are often superimposed in order to identify areas which are suitable or unsuitable for a particular type of resource management. Overlay maps may also be used to identify analysis areas for predictive modeling of resource productivity and ecological response to management. Current interest in applying computer-assisted mapping technology to making overlay maps is drawing attention to geographic information systems for this purpose. The resultant maps, however, may be so inaccurate or unable to capture significant units of productivity and ecological response that they could lead to imperfect or false conclusions. Recommendations are made on how to proceed in light of these problems.     

Science and Management of the Introduced Seagrass Zostera japonica in North America

Healthy seagrass is considered a prime indicator of estuarine ecosystem function. On the Pacific coast of North America, at least two congeners of Zostera occur: native Zostera marina, and introduced, Zostera japonica. Z. japonica is considered “invasive” and therefore, ecologically and economically harmful by some, while others consider it benign or perhaps beneficial. Z. japonica does not appear on the Federal or the Oregon invasive species or noxious weed lists. However, the State of California lists it as both an invasive and noxious weed; Washington State recently listed it as a noxious weed. We describe the management dynamics in North America with respect to these congener species and highlight the science and policies behind these decisions. In recent years, management strategies at the state level have ranged from historical protection of Z. japonica as a priority habitat in Washington to eradication in California. Oregon and British Columbia, Canada appear to have no specific policies with regard to Z. japonica. This fractured management approach contradicts efforts to conserve and protect seagrass in other regions of the US and around the world. Science must play a critical role in the assessment of Z. japonica ecology and the immediate and long-term effects of management actions. The information and recommendations provided here can serve as a basis for providing scientific data in order to develop better informed management decisions and aid in defining a uniform management strategy for Z. japonica.     

Cognitive performance during long-term residence in a polar environment

The objective of this study was to determine whether there was significant change in cognitive performance by prolonged duration of residence in polar environment. We examined volunteers (N = 23, scientific and logistic personnel) who spent fourteen months of continuous stay at ‘Maitri’ – The Indian research base in Antarctica (70 °45′S, 11 °44′E). Cognitive measures (tests of task acquisition, delayed recognition, attention and concentration, and digit symbol substitution) were obtained at the beginning (second month), the middle (seventh month) and the final (twelfth month) phases of prolonged residence in Antarctica. A repeated-measures MANOVA was conducted and the findings indicated a significant increase in percent accuracy in performance of task acquisition, delayed recognition and digit symbol tests that assessed recognition memory and learning. The test of attention and concentration that measured short-term memory for digits showed stable performance over a long-duration of residence in polar environment.     

EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR TROPHIC STATE IN SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: A cross-sectional data set of 80 lakes and reservoirs in nine southeastern states was examined to specify and parameterize trophic state relationships. The relationships fitted are based on measurements of several limnological variables taken over the course of a growing season or year in each of the lakes. The trophic state models relate phosphorus and nitrogen loading to inlake phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations, which in turn are related to maximum chlorophyll level, Secchi disk depth, dominant algal species, and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen status. Due to the empirical nature of the study, causal conclusions are limited; rather, the models are most useful for prediction of average growing season conditions related to trophic state.     

WATER RESOURCE INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BALANCED VERSUS UNBALANCED INVESTMENT STRATEGIES1

ABSTRACT: A number of recent investigations have attempted to determine whether or not a relationship exists between water resource investment and economic growth. Reasons for the disparity in the conclusions of these investigations are examined. The degree of balance in an investment strategy may be a primary cause of the disparity in the conclusions and in determining the extent to which investment in water resources induces economic growth. Providing definitions of balanced and unbalanced investment strategies that involve water development is complicated by the polarity associated with the terms and the wide spectrum of possible components in an investment strategy. Interpretations of the polar concepts of balance and imbalance are provided and form a basis for examining the potential role of water resource development in an investment strategy and the ability of water investment to induce economic growth.     

Electricity supplies for the primary aluminium industry

The historical relationship between aluminium smelting and hydroelectric development is examined. Data on hydroelectric schemes presently planned or under construction are used to project the quantities of aluminium which could be produced using hydroelectric power by the year 2000. Projections of aluminium demand are made and these are compared with the projections of hydrobased aluminium supply. It is concluded that the majority of the world aluminium capacity which will be installed up to the end of this century will have to rely on non-hydroelectric power, based on coal or nuclear energy. The sensitivity of the projections to the assumptions is tested and the conclusions are found to be robust.     

HYDROLOGIC IMPACT OF WEATHER MODIFICATION1

ABSTRACT: Weather modification is being proposed as a routine method of augmenting agricultural water supplies in the Southern Great Plains. This paper discusses some of the potential hydrologic impacts of weather modification. Previous work in assessing hydrologic impact is covered; the conclusion is drawn that the work is insufficient. An approach based on hydrologic models is suggested that can consider uncertainties about the effect of weather modification on rainfall and some uncertainties about the effect of model error on impact conclusions.