Statistical considerations of progressive value and risk in mineral exploration

Financial markets recognise maximisation of expected value (E), in an essentially risk-neutral context, as the main corporate financial objective of private enterprise. This may be valid for large, integrated mining companies. Yet, most junior and middle-size exploration companies behave in a risk-averse fashion when making decisions about progressively more expensive exploration programs. From their perspective, a potential increase in expected value from either an increase in target value or related probability of discovery, or both, may not be a sufficient incentive to embark in an exploration programme if the resultant increase in expected value is accompanied by a significant increase in possible maximum loss. Risk-averse explorers may be unwilling to bear larger, albeit less probable losses, when the cost of successive exploration programmes is taken into account. The paper provides a practical methodology for such explorers to optimise the decision whether to progress to the next stage of exploration or to farm out a risky project. It uses a decision-tree model incorporating the effectiveness of the proposed exploration programme, the explorer's risk tolerance and related utility values and the probability distribution of the possible value of the exploration target.     

United Nations mineral exploration activities in developing countries

The purpose of the United Nations' mineral exploration activities is to assist the developing countries in identifying, evaluating and developing their mineral resources as a means of stimulating their economic development. Since 1978, these programmes have been executed by the Natural Resources and Energy Division of the Department of Technical Co-operation for Development (DTCD) with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) providing the bulk of the financing. In the past 30 years, more than 450 projects in some 100 developing countries have been executed at a cost estimated at US$600 million. This input has contributed to the discovery of deposits valued at billions of dollars, many of which are now being mined.     

State mineral production taxes and mining law reform

Fuel and leasable minerals mined in the United States have historically been subject to federal royalties while locatable minerals have not. In recent years there have been multiple attempts to alter this policy and subject locatable minerals to federal royalties as well; most recently the preliminary 2012 Obama budget included a gross royalty on hard-rock mining on public lands. This paper analyzes the issue of imposing such federal royalties from both a legal and economic perspective. From a legal perspective, it is argued that the state of western property rights precludes royalties on currently extant claims so revenues from a royalty would not be realized for many years. From an economic perspective, it is argued that the effect on revenue would be smaller than one might anticipate due to such a royalty crowding out state levies or encouraging vertical disintegration on the part of mining firms to avoid much of the burden of the royalty.     

Natural resources,governance and institutional quality: The role of resource funds

This paper investigates the relationship between resource funds, governance and institutional quality in resource-rich countries. The study is motivated by the relatively recent and inconclusive debate on resource funds and on their role in the addressing of the “resource curse”. The estimation results suggest that resource funds may be associated with governance and institutional quality improvements. The analysis complements the debate on the tools of addressing the “resource curse” and on the determinants of governance and institutional quality. The findings remain important for their policy implications. The estimation results suggest that resource funds may prove useful tools in the hands of the policy makers in the attempt to address governance and institutional quality deterioration induced by resource abundance.     

The legal environmental risk analysis (LERA) sample of mining and the environment in Turkish legislation

As advancing technology and increasing demands for natural resources continue to mount pressure on the environment, environmental conservation and sustainable management have become ever more important. Individual countries have been increasingly taking action to reduce environmental destruction caused by human activities in an attempt to find a balance in between the necessary exploitation of resources and environmental conservation. In Turkey, the struggle between environmental conservation and mining activities is set within the legal context, with the requisite legal regulations (which describe various procedures) in the midst of being updated or renewed. The legal environmental risk analysis (LERA), beginning by discussing the main legal regulations of environmental conservation in relation to mining activities, defines basic environmental components which form the basis of environmental conservation in relation to mining, and analyzes the impact of mining on each component. The analysis (LERA) finishes with an evaluation of the components as they currently stand and makes some suggestions for the improvement of insufficient regulations.     

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) for exploration: Consultants,companies and communities in processes of engagements

Over the last fifteen years, large-scale mining companies have started engaging in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), with the aim of contributing to developing local communities affected by their operations. Large-scale mining companies, together with the World Bank, have formulated voluntary principles and benchmarks to guide these company–community relations. Recently, it has been argued that CSR is also crucial in the early stages of exploration. Nowadays, mining consultants propagate a process approach to company–community relations, from early exploration to post-mining planning.     

European aggregates production: Drivers,correlations and trends

Aggregates constitute the biggest branch of mining by production volume and the second in value, after the sector of fossil fuels. Their close connection with the construction industry places them among the most used materials worldwide, second only to water. Despite its significance, the sector suffers from the non-systematic register of production data, resulting in weakness to study the main features affecting the sector’s structure and future capacity. The paper focuses on the aggregates production in 26 European countries. Data from available sources are gathered and combined for a 10-year period (1997–2006), as an effort to provide a clear view of the major attributes of this vital industrial sector. Through a thorough analysis, the main drivers in aggregates production are revealed and existing correlations and trends are identified. New findings are also presented, for example the significance of GDP from construction and the strong connection of aggregates production per capita with the residential building sector.     

A review of the PGM industry,deposit models and exploration practices: Implications for Australia's PGM potential

Australia is prospective for platinum group metal (PGM) mineralisation (in particular primary magmatic reef, primary magmatic by-product, late magmatic and hydrothermal, and alluvial placer type) but its known PGM endowment is negligible compared to that of South Africa, Russia, the USA and Canada. Most Australian PGM projects are operated by mid-cap or junior companies and form part of larger, more diverse project portfolios held by these explorers. Most projects were ‘hot’ while market conditions were favourable. However, as other metals became ‘fashionable’ and market conditions for PGM changed, so did the focus of these companies. Pure PGM companies are rare in Australia. The search for and development of PGM-only deposits in Australia are high risk business activities. No new primary PGM deposits have been discovered since the mid to late 1980s and none of the significant deposits that were discovered or evaluated in the 1980s have been mined. This review suggests that at least several A$10 million but more likely several A$100 million were sunk into PGM exploration and development projects but none advanced to the mining stage. The viability of Australian PGM projects is very sensitive to (1) metal prices, (2) the US$/A$ exchange rate, and (3) large capital expenditure requirements relative to the small size of Australian PGM-only deposits. Most PGM-only projects were initiated at times of high PGM prices. However, advanced exploration, feasibility studies and project development always lagged behind the price booms. South Africa, Russia and Canada contain approximately 98% of the known global PGM reserves. This situation has a very negative effect on the Australian PGM industry as the well-endowed nations continue to receive the lion's share of exploration spend and new projects.     

Iron ore spot price volatility and change in forward pricing mechanism

To examine the impact of the change in forward pricing mechanism on the volatility of iron ore spot prices, we model the iron ore daily price of Platts IODEX from October 7, 2008 to September 21, 2012. The identified iron ore spot price tends to be less volatile after the introduction of quarterly pricing mechanism. Our main approaches are as follows: (i) to decompose the spot price of Platts IODEX into two subsamples and relate the result of the structural break to the date of the switch in the iron ore forward pricing mechanism; (ii) to apply the EGARCH (1, 1) model to simultaneously capture the long memory and the asymmetric effect on the volatility of the iron ore spot price; and (iii) to delineate the news impact curve to further interpret the asymmetric effect.     

Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles

This paper addresses the fluctuations in real metal prices: are they simply random variations or do they display some degree of cyclicality? This study identifies peaks and troughs in the inflation adjusted prices for 14 metals, using monthly average data from January 1947 through December 2007. Duration dependence testing, which is performed on the expansions, contractions, and full cycles, finds many cases in which the duration of these phases are not purely random and have some degree of cyclicality. Additional characterization show that contractions generally persist longer than expansions (in contrast to macroeconomic cycles) that long-term real prices have been trendless, and that the amplitude of price changes over the phases has little regularity. For those performing this type of analysis, the appendices explain the procedures for dating turning points and assessing duration dependence.     

The fate of the poor in growing mineral and energy economies

There are frequent suggestions that countries specializing in mineral and energy extraction have a type of growth that is bad for the poor. Others claim that extraction-led growth is particularly good for the poor. Both claims are made without the support of substantial empirical evidence. This paper uses longitudinal data on income growth by quintile in 57 developed and developing countries to statistically assess how mineral and energy extraction has affected the relationship between growth and the poor. We can find no evidence that the data support either the claim that extraction-led growth is good for the poor or that extraction-led growth is bad for the poor. This finding does not rule out that extractive activity can have special positive or negative impacts on the poor in some countries or regions. Rather, it simply brings to light that such effects are not evident as a persistent statistical phenomenon in the national level data that are available, which may be why the debate tends to move along without resolution.     

The impact of commodity price risk management on the profits of a company

It is well recognized that for the producing companies hedging the commodity price using financial products like forwards or futures has become an important part of the company's production process. But apart from the direct impacts of hedging on the production and hedging costs the use of financial products affects the financing of the company: hedging the volatile commodity prices leads to a reduction of the risk premium the company has to pay for its debt capital, since hedging contributes to more confidence of the investors in the redemption of the debt. In this paper we therefore analyze this dependency of hedging and financing and derive optimal hedging extents for companies in different market situations based on a long-term model. By hedging the commodity price, companies can realize a surplus in profits. Thereby, the optimal hedging extent for a monopolist is often up to 100%, whereas for companies in a polypolistic market the optimum is always less than 100%. These results are illustrated by examples for a producing company.     

Metalliferous sediments in the Atlantis II Deep—Assessing the geological and economic resource potential and legal constraints

Projected increases in demand and thus increasing metal prices have brought the exploration and exploitation of marine mineral resources back into focus. The Atlantis II Deep, located in the central Red Sea between Saudi Arabia and Sudan, is one of the largest marine sulfide deposits known, with high concentrations of metals such as zinc, copper, silver and gold. However, little is known about the economic potential of marine minerals as well as the legal constraints. Our geological assessment shows that the deep is similar in grades and scale to large land-based deposits. Its economic potential is far from negligible. The total present value of possible gross revenues for the four metals zinc, copper, silver and gold ranges from 3.03 to 5.29 billion US$, depending on the assumptions made concerning future price development, mass calculation and discount rate. From a legal perspective, a general duty to cooperate in the exploration and exploitation of non-living resources located in disputed maritime areas is identified in both customary international law and in UNCLOS. It is submitted that a joint development agreement is one means of ensuring compliance with this duty in general and in the case of the Atlantis II Deep in particular.     

Estimating the volatility of mining projects considering price and operating cost uncertainties

In the real option pricing model of valuation and decision making, the estimation of future volatility is a key input parameter. For traded commodities or financial assets, past volatility is used as a proxy for predictions. But, for projects, this approach is not feasible because, in most cases, historical data of traded projects are not available. As an alternate solution, it is usually assumed that project volatility is equal to that of commodity price. In order to investigate this assumption, we estimate the project volatility considering that both commodity price and operating cost evolve as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Results of a hypothetical gold mining project indicate that project volatility is higher than that of commodity price and it only drops to price volatility under very unrealistic industry conditions, such as very high prices or very low production costs. In addition, we find that project volatility is independent of production capacity and taxation, but depends on increments in price and cost, as well as strongly on their degree of correlation.     

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.     

Effect of tax laws on mineral exploration in Canada

Changes since 1972 in Canadian federal and provincial tax laws have eliminated many of the prior tax incentives offered to the mining industry. These changes provide an opportunity to study the effect of tax laws on a country's mineral resource development by comparing trends in mineral exploration in various provinces with adjoining regions, and by comparing these results with firm behaviour that would be expected from microeconomic analysis. Mineral producers have sought higher, more stable returns, resulting in shifts of exploration into political regions with more favourable and less changeable tax policies. Future supplies of mineral raw materials from a political region are dependent on current exploration effort, which is in turn influenced by the region's tax laws.     

A mineral commodity life-cycle?: Relationships between production,price and economic resources

The production, price and economic resources profiles of a number of mineral commodities are examined and consideration is given to the theory that such profiles can be related to one another within the framework of a life-cycle model of development. While the behaviour of some of the commodities examined appears to lend support to the theory, that of others reveals fundamental problems with its underlying assumptions. It is concluded that, while the demand for a mineral commodity in specific uses may indeed manifest cyclical tendencies, as a general behavioural theory and as a basis for resource estimation the life-cycle model applied to minerals is of little value.     

The evolution of the Canadian mining industry: The role of regulatory punctuation

In this study, we analyze the evolution of Canada's mining industry from 1929 to 2006, focussing on the determinants of the number of firms in the industry and why this number changed over that period. Most empirical studies of industry evolution have focused on manufacturing industries that share similar structural characteristics. Perhaps because of this, extant models of industry evolution tend to ignore industry-specific and national-specific factors that can cause atypical trajectories, that is, heterogeneous industry evolution. Initial inspection of the Canadian mining industry shows that it is atypical in that it exhibits “negative skew” over time in the number of firms rather than the typical “positive skew.” We review two dominant theoretical approaches to industry evolution: the density-dependence theory and variants of industrial organization economics. We also consider possible sources of industry evolution heterogeneity, focussing particularly on “regulatory punctuation”. Using Canadian mining data, we find that the traditional models do not fully explain the changes in population size in Canada's mining industry. As a result, we introduce a number of hybrid models. The results from these hybrid models suggest that Canadian-specific regulatory punctuations, particularly the introduction of significant new taxes, environmental legislation, and incentives have shaped the trajectory of mining firm participation.     

Natural resources and development: The gold sector in Mali

Resource-rich countries do not necessarily perform well, especially developing countries. A debate has developed since the 1990s about a “resource curse” hypothesis, which threaten to impede the resource-rich countries in taking advantage of their natural endowments. In Mali, a less-developed country, gold export has substantially increased since the 1990s. In this paper we show that widespread analyses, such as those of the Dutch disease and the quality of institutions, are not sufficient to understand what is at stake in Mali, and that the mining sector has proved to be neither a blessing nor a curse, at least until the present. Gold mining has brought budget revenues but induced few spillovers. As gold mining has now come to maturity, the die is probably cast.     

The role of the Australian minerals industry in world mineral supplies

Australia is one of the world's main producers and exporters of both fuel and non-fuel minerals. Among the main commodities produced for export are bauxite/alumina, iron ore, and nickel—Australia is also an increasingly important source of supply of black coal, especially for Japan, and is a significant producer and exporter of a number of base metals. Resources are adequate to support a substantial expansion of both non-oil fuels and other minerals. The potential for growth, both in terms of specific commodities and in the overall role of Australia in the world mineral industry, will depend to a very large extent on the cost competitiveness of Australian mining and on continuing inflow of capital.