Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium

The cumulative availability curve shows the quantities of a mineral commodity that can be recovered under current conditions from existing resources at various prices. The future availability of a mineral commodity depends on the shape of its cumulative availability curve (determined by geologic considerations, such as the nature and incidence of the available mineral deposits), the speed at which society moves up the curve (determined by future demand and the extent to which this demand is satisfied by recycling), and shifts in the curve (determined by cost-reducing technological change and other factors). While the shape of the curve for any given mineral commodity may or may not be known, it is knowable since the geologic processes responsible for the curve's shape took place many years ago. In contrast, the factors governing how fast society moves up the curve and how the curve shifts over time are not only unknown but also unknowable.Using lithium as an example, this article shows that knowledge about the shape of the cumulative availability curve can by itself provide useful insights for some mineral commodities regarding the potential future threat of shortages due to depletion. Despite the inherent uncertainties surrounding the future growth in lithium demand as well as the uncertainties regarding the future cost-reducing effects of new production technologies, the shape of the lithium cumulative availability curve indicates that depletion is not likely to pose a serious problem over the rest of this century and well beyond.     

The concept and measurement of mineral reserves and resources

The distinction between an exploitable and a non-exploitable mineral deposit is dynamic, varying as a function of changing economic and technological factors. A conceptual framework is proposed: ‘reserves’ are restricted to known currently exploitable deposits; ‘known resources’ are reserves plus currently non-exploitable deposits; ‘total resources’ are known resources plus all deposits not yet discovered. The short-term inadequacy of some mineral reserves requites a policy of accelerated mineral exploration and rapid development of new exploration techniques. Future problems could be avoided if the nature of resources is recognized and new mineral extraction and processing techniques for lower grade and unconventional mineral deposits are developed.     

A quantitative integrated evaluation of sustainable development of mineral resources of a mining city: a case study of Huangshi,Eastern China

It is generally considered that the non-renewable nature of mineral resources will make them gradually depleted over time. However, in the perspective of development availability of mineral resources in a long-term depends not only on their currently available amounts but also on future potential mineral resources (e.g. those undiscovered and low-grade ores) and substitutive renewable resources. In addition, it is influenced by factors like technology and capital. These factors interact with each other. As a result, it is possible to make the sustainable development of mineral resources by appropriate coordination between these factors. A new concept of Degree of Sustainable Development of Mineral Resources (DSDMR) and its conceptual model are proposed in this paper in the viewpoints of system science and sustainable development to evaluate the ability of sustainable development of mineral resources for a mining city. DSDMR refers to the ability of meeting needs of present and future generations for mineral resources by their logical distribution and substitution. An indicator system and a fuzzy integrated judgment model, which involve factors of resources, economy, society, environments and intelligence, are presented. They are used to evaluate DSDMR of Huangshi city, which is the most ancient and yet one of the most important mining cities producing iron and copper in China.     

The resource curse

Countries that possess rich mineral deposits, it is widely assumed, are fortunate. Such deposits are assets, part of a country's natural capital. Mining is the key that converts dormant mineral wealth into schools, homes, ports, and other forms of capital that directly contribute to economic development. Over the past two decades, however, a more negative view of mining has emerged that questions the positive relationship between mineral extraction and economic development. The impetus for the alternative view came from empirical studies suggesting that countries where mining is important have not grown as rapidly as other countries. More recent studies have explored the possible reasons behind the disappointing performance of many mineral producing countries. While the central point of contention between the conventional and alternative views — namely, whether or not mining usually promotes economic development — remains unresolved, there is widespread agreement that rich mineral deposits provide developing countries with opportunities, which in some instances have been used wisely to promote development, and in other instances have been misused, hurting development. The consensus on this issue is important, for it means that one uniform policy toward all mining in the developing world is not desirable, despite the recent suggestions by some to the contrary. The appropriate public policy question is not should we or should we not promote mining in the developing countries, but rather where should we encourage it and how can we ensure that it contributes as much as possible to economic development and poverty alleviation.     

AGRICULTURE, WATER AND ENVIRONMENT IN BOTSWANA: A PROBLEM OF POLICY

In many countries, an increasing amount of attention is being paid to the economic and environmental repercussions of mineral resources development, and in particular to the problems of industrialisation of an agricultural society. In Botswana, the discovery of and planning for the development of nickel deposits is an important element of national policy. However, often overlooked is the basic and continuing role that has to be provided by the agricultural sector. The pressure of people and of livestock on the land, and the extension of cultivation into increasingly fragile environments where the availability of water is a critical constraint, pose serious problems for policy makers. The author examines the dilemma in a case study of Botswana, showing how changes in the agricultural sector have precipitated problems of water supply and of environmental stress. The need for inter-disciplinary approaches to policy making is underscored, together with detailed and integrated studies of the dimensions of these inter-related problems. The problem of the availability of water in adequate quantities and of appropriate quality has become a serious policy concern. Later this year the United Nations Conference on Desertification will address the broad scope of the relationships between man, land and water. This article examines one example of these changing relationships.     

Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960

Between 1960 and 2000, Japan's real GDP grew 620%. However, its consumption of copper increased only 345%, thanks to a 38% decline in the country's intensity of copper use. In light of concerns today over the possible impact of future economic development in China, India, and other developing countries on the long-run availability of mineral resources, this study proposes to explore the causes for this dramatic decline in the Japanese intensity of copper use.For some time, we have known that the intensity of metal use within a country depends on its level of economic development, usually measured by per capita income, as well as on technological change, long-run price trends, and other factors whose influence varies, more or less, with time. This study finds that rising per capita income has increased the intensity of copper use in Japan over the entire period examined. Moreover, this positive effect is expected to continue until per capita income—$44,830 in 2000—reaches $53,000. Thereafter, further advances will tend to reduce the intensity of copper use. Conversely, new copper-saving technologies and other time-related variables have on average reduced the intensity of copper use by 2.9% a year, an amount sufficient not only to offset the positive effects of growing per capita income but also to reduce intensity of use by 38%.     

UN Department of Technical Co-operation for Development regional seminar activities in 1989

The purpose of the United Nations' mineral exploration activities is to assist developing countries in identifying, evaluating and developing their mineral resources as a means of stimulating their economic development. Since 1978, these programmes have been executed by the Natural Resources and Energy Division of the Department of Technical Co-operation for Development (DTCD) with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) providing the bulk of the financing. In the past 30 years, more than 450 projects in some 100 developing countries have been executed at a cost estimated at US$600 million. This input has contributed to the discovery of deposits valued at billions of dollars, many of which are now being mined.     

Antartic minerals: A common heritage approach

The potential value of Antarctic mineral resources, including petroleum, has already spurred efforts by the Antarctic Treaty powers to establish a legal and technical regime for minerals. Management and control of Antarctic minerals need not, however, be left to the countries that have staked territorial claims or otherwise been active in Antarctica. Possible mineral regimes include open access (or first-come, first-served) and a variety of multilateral and international approaches. This article suggests that a common heritage approach would be most suitable for Antarctica and, despite opposition to such an approach among the Antarctic Treaty powers, would be a practical solution to the mineral development issue. The time for international organizations to act to establish such a common heritage regime is, however, growing short.     

Assessing the long-run availability of copper

This study questions recent research [Gordon, R.B., Bertram, M., Graedel, T.E., 2006. Metal stocks and sustainability. Proc. Natl. Acad. USA 103(5), 1209–1214] that concludes that the world is likely to experience a growing scarcity of copper over this century. In particular, it focuses on the methodology used in this work that assumes the usable copper contained in the earth is a fixed amount. While the fixed-stock paradigm is intuitively appealing—after all the earth is finite so the amount of any commodity it contains must also be finite—and used with some frequency by others as well to assess long-run trends in the availability of non-renewable mineral resources, it is flawed and can lead to overly pessimistic as well as overly optimistic expectations. A more useful and appropriate approach, the opportunity-cost paradigm, assesses long-run trends in availability by real prices or alternative measures of what society has to give up or sacrifice to obtain another ton of copper or barrel of oil. This approach indicates that copper could conceivably become less scarce by the end of the century. Whether this will be the case or whether copper will be more scarce, however, depends on a number of factors, including the future course of technological change, whose influence no one can predict with any degree of certainty decades in advance.     

United Nations mineral exploration activities in developing countries

The purpose of the United Nations' mineral exploration activities is to assist the developing countries in identifying, evaluating and developing their mineral resources as a means of stimulating their economic development. Since 1978, these programmes have been executed by the Natural Resources and Energy Division of the Department of Technical Co-operation for Development (DTCD) with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) providing the bulk of the financing. In the past 30 years, more than 450 projects in some 100 developing countries have been executed at a cost estimated at US$600 million. This input has contributed to the discovery of deposits valued at billions of dollars, many of which are now being mined.     

The influence of geomorphology on the role of women at artisanal and small‐scale mine sites

The geologic and geomorphic expressions of a mineral deposit determine its location, size, and accessibility, characteristics which in turn greatly influence the success of artisans mining the deposit. Despite this critical information, which can be garnered through studying the surficial physical expression of a deposit, the geologic and geomorphic sciences have been largely overlooked in artisanal mining‐related research. This study demonstrates that a correlation exists between the roles of female miners at artisanal diamond and gold mining sites in western and central Africa and the physical expression of the deposits. Typically, women perform ore processing and ancillary roles at mine sites. On occasion, however, women participate in the extraction process itself. Women were found to participate in the extraction of ore only when a deposit had a thin overburden layer, thus rendering the mineralized ore more accessible. When deposits required a significant degree of manual labour to access the ore due to thick overburden layers, women were typically relegated to other roles. The identification of this link encourages the establishment of an alternative research avenue in which the physical and social sciences merge to better inform policymakers, so that the most appropriate artisanal mining assistance programs can be developed and implemented.     

CHANGING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES AND TECHNIQUES IN MINERAL EXPLORATION

The concepts, approaches and techniques in mineral exploration are changing to meet the demands of society for the discovery of new ore deposits. Recent developments in mineral processing and metal production have made it possible to consider deposits not acceptable before, such as low-grade uranium and copper occurrences, lateritic nickel, iron-rich chromites, lithium in brines, and disseminated beryllium deposits. New concepts on the formation of mineral deposits, as for example the continental drift theory, and new exploration techniques, such as remote sensing, airborne mapping and sampling, electronic data storage and analysis, assure a higher success rate of exploration projects.     

Risks and opportunities for foreign investment in the mineral sectors of the Central Asian Republics: Kazakstan,Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

With the dissolution of the former Soviet Union in 1991, the nations of Central Asia gained independence and began the transition to market driven economies. Both the political and economic transformations of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) (Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) have been difficult primarily because of a holdover of various centrally planned `command and control' approaches to national development. The extensive mapping and exploration of the CARs during the Soviet era (approximately 1921–1991) led to the discovery of several hundreds of mineral deposits that were subsequently evaluated, and it is this `pool' of known, but undeveloped, deposits which is of major interest to foreign and domestic companies. However, foreign investment in the mineral sectors of the CARs is at best quite modest and there are very few positive signs that foreign investment will increase dramatically in the near term. The major risks that the mining industry faces as it works in the CARs arise primarily from the fact that the nations are transitional economies which lack both a comprehensive legal framework and experience in dealing with foreign mining corporations and their practices. The major risks are political, economic, financial, infrastructure, contractual, environmental, social and cultural and workforce related. If all individual risk factors are weighted equally, the relative ranking of the countries (from least risk to most risk for mineral development) would be Kyrgyzstan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan respectively. However, such a classification scheme does not effectively weight the importance of mineral potential. If the risk criteria are weighted with respect to geologic potential, the ranking of the countries would be (from least risk to most risk) Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, respectively.     

Valuing Urban Green Space: Hypothetical Alternatives and the Status Quo

Although many cities have guidelines on the quantity of green open space that should accompany residential development, there is less guidance on the type or facilities of these spaces. The study uses an approach to determine whether green space can be valued on the basis of its constituent characteristics and, if so, what characteristics are preferred. The results indicate that preferences vary depending on whether the green space in question is a small local park or a larger municipal park. However, where a base alternative of usual park destination is included in the analysis, the results are affected by collinearity and the actual availability of relevant green space attributes in these destinations. A mixed logit approach is used to tease out this effect from the underlying preference values.     

International policies on the economic resources of the deep-seabed

The resources of the seabed and ocean floor beyond the limits of national jurisdiction were declared the ‘common heritage of mankind’ by the United Nations General Assembly. This article discusses the mineral resources located in this area and how the commercial availability of such resources was perceived to affect national interests. Although the exploitation of these resources would have benefited all states, some more than others, such exploitation was seen to have conflicting consequences on national interests in the light of the North-South dialogue in which trade and access to raw materials played a central role. The factual basis for these different national interests is examined by a discussion of the possible impact of mineral production from the deep-seabed on world markets and the policies implemented in the Convention on the Law of the Sea to ensure these interests are evaluated.     

Determining the optimal tax on mining

This article examines three arguments often raised in support of higher taxes on mining and finds them wanting: First, the wealth or economic rents associated with particularly rich deposits rightfully belong to the citizens of the host country. Second, mining companies should compensate the State and the public for their use of mineral resources, given the intrinsic value arising from their non‐renewable nature. Third, the division of the wealth created by mining is unfair. Too much goes to mining companies, and too little to the host country to promote economic development. It suggests instead that host governments should maximize the net present value of the social benefits flowing from their mineral sector. In practice, unfortunately, it is often difficult to know whether this objective is served by raising or lowering the level of taxation on mining.     

The new economic order and world mineral production and trade

World mineral production is dominated by the developed countries — the developing countries dominate production of only tin, cobalt, bauxite, and petroleum. This production pattern is largely the result of historical, political, and economic factors, and is not likely to change radically in the next decade. Apart from petroleum, there seems to be little opportunity for the formation of mineral-producer cartels, although there is considerable scope for constructive producer-consumer agreements. Given the pattern of world mineral production and trade, the developed countries would on the whole benefit more than the developing countries from price increases. The most acute present need is for new means of financing exploration and development of mineral deposits in the developing countries, and for means of redressing the worst imbalances between rich and poor nations outside of the commodity arena.     

New mine capacity from yet-to-be found copper deposits

The copper industry in the USA is declining, but exploration for copper has been particularly promising in western Montana. The potential copper mine capacity of the area was estimated by using an interdisciplinary geological-economical assessment technique that categorizes deposits on the basis of development probability. Development probability is quantified and aggregated into potential new mine supply curves, which summarize resource potential of the region. The results suggest that copper resources in Montana and elsewhere are potentially large and that these resources probably will be mined at higher copper prices. This mineral assessment technique increases the usefulness of traditional methods for planners and policy makers.     

At the 50th anniversary of the UN

This paper describes how the design by the UN of its institutions for delivering technical assistance and advisory services in respect of mineral resources development have changed over time. UN practices in such fields as mining and minerals development are analysed, as are the gradual and subtle impacts of such practices on changes in UN perceptions of its roles not only in development but also in peace and human rights. The final section examines some of the problems that will confront the UN in the future, as it seeks to incorporate the principles of interdependence and interlinkage among development, peace and human rights into its technical assistance and advisory services in the field of mining and minerals development .     

Approaches to the implementation of the Water Framework Directive: targeting mitigation measures at critical source areas of diffuse phosphorus in Irish catchments

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) has initiated a shift towards a targeted approach to implementation through its focus on river basin districts as management units and the natural ecological characteristics of waterbodies. Due to its role in eutrophication, phosphorus (P) has received considerable attention, resulting in a significant body of research, which now forms the evidence base for the programme of measures (POMs) adopted in WFD River Basin Management Plans (RBMP). Targeting POMs at critical sources areas (CSAs) of P could significantly improve environmental efficiency and cost effectiveness of proposed mitigation strategies. This paper summarises the progress made towards targeting mitigation measures at CSAs in Irish catchments. A review of current research highlights that knowledge related to P export at field scale is relatively comprehensive however; the availability of site-specific data and tools limits widespread identification of CSA at this scale. Increasing complexity of hydrological processes at larger scales limits accurate identification of CSA at catchment scale. Implementation of a tiered approach, using catchment scale tools in conjunction with field-by-field surveys could decrease uncertainty and provide a more practical and cost effective method of delineating CSA in a range of catchments. Despite scientific and practical uncertainties, development of a tiered CSA-based approach to assist in the development of supplementary measures would provide a means of developing catchment-specific and cost-effective programmes of measures for diffuse P. The paper presents a conceptual framework for such an approach, which would have particular relevance for the development of supplementary measures in High Status Waterbodies (HSW). The cost and resources necessary for implementation are justified based on HSWs' value as undisturbed reference condition ecosystems.