Ozone Air Quality Models

Abstract

The field of ozone air quality modeling, or as it is commonly referred to, photochemical air quality modeling, has undergone rapid change in recent years. Improvements in model components, as well as in methods of interpreting model performance, have contributed to this change. Attendant with this rapid change has been a growing need for those developing and using air quality models and policy makers to have a common understanding of the use and role of models in the decision making process. This Critical Review highlights recent advances and continuing problem areas in photochemical air quality modeling. Emphasis is placed on the components and input data for such models, model performance evaluation, and the implications for their use in regulatory decisions.     

Ozone Air Quality Models Prepared Discussion

The APCA Critical Review entitled “Ozone Air Quality Models” was presented by John H. Seinfeld, Louis E. Nohl Professor and Executive Officer for Chemical Engineering at the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California. Dr. Seinfeld presented his review at the 81st APCA Annual Meeting & Exhibition, held in Dallas, Texas in June 1988. The Critical Review paper, published in the May 1988 issue of JAPCA, highlighted recent advances and continuing problem areas in photochemical air quality modeling. Prepared discussions and floor comments presented during the Critical Review session in Dallas are published here, along with additional comments and closing remarks by Dr. Seinfeld. Howard M. Ellis, Chairman of the Critical Review Subcommittee of the Publications Committee, served as moderator of the 1988 APCA Critical Review session.     

The Need for a More Robust Ozone Air Quality Standard

The present National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone has many statistical problems, including use of extreme values which have inherent large fluctuations, a compliance test that can gradually lower the target of the design value below the standard level, and inconsistencies between the number-of-exceedances criterion and the design value. The above problems can be avoided or minimized by using a more robust statistic, such as the 95th percentile, and applying a statistical compliance test, without sacrificing the stringency of the standard. Analysis of EPA’s ozone data shows that the annual 95th percentiles and their three-year means have less variability than the annual second highest values and the fourth highest values in three years, respectively. A t test for the mean of the annual 95th percentiles is proposed for compliance testing not only to preserve the averaging concept of the present standard, but also to take account of ozone concentration fluctuations in order to increase the stability of the compliance status of a site or a Metropolitan Statistical Area. A procedure is provided to adjust the level of the 95th-percentile standard so that the stringency of the present standard is preserved.     

Detecting and Tracking Changes in Ozone Air Quality

This paper presents a statistical method for filtering out or moderating the influence of meteorological fluctuations on ozone concentrations. Use of this technique in examining trends in ambient ozone air quality is demonstrated with ozone data from a monitoring location in New Jersey. The results indicate that this method can detect changes in ozone air quality due to changes in emissions in the presence of meteorological fluctuations. This method can be useful in examining the effectiveness of regulatory initiatives in improving ozone air quality.     

Statistical Analysis of Trends in Urban Ozone Air Quality

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of some statistical methods for examining trends in ambient ozone air quality downwind of major urban areas. To this end, daily maximum 1 -hr ozone concentrations measured over New Jersey, metropolitan New York City and Connecticut for the period 1980 to 1989 were assembled and analyzed. This paper discusses the application of the bootstrap method, extreme value statistics and a nonparametric test for evaluating trends in urban ozone air quality. The results indicate that although there is an improvement in ozone air quality downwind of New York City, there has been little change in ozone levels upwind of New York City during this ten-year period.     

Stratospheric Ozone Protection: An EPA Engineering Perspective

Chlorine released into the atmosphere is a major factor in the depletion of the protective stratospheric ozone layer. The Montreal Protocol, as amended in 1990, and the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, address the limits and reduction schedules to be placed on chlorine- and bromine-containing chemicals. The status of technical solutions to the problem of chlorofluorocarbons, halons, methyl chloroform, and carbon tetrachloride in the major use areas of refrigeration, foam, aerosols, fire protection, and solvents is discussed here. The discussion includes the cooperative efforts involving academia, industry, U.S. governmental organizations, and other nations who are contributing solutions to these problems.     

Air Quality Modeling and Decisions for Ozone Reduction Strategies

Abstract

Despite the widespread application of photochemical air quality models (AQMs) in U.S. state implementation planning (SIP) for attainment of the ambient ozone standard, documentation for the reliability of projections has remained highly subjective. An “idealized” evaluation framework is proposed that provides a means for assessing reliability. Applied to 18 cases of regulatory modeling in the early 1990s in North America, a comparative review of these applications is reported. The intercomparisons suggest that more than two thirds of these AQM applications suffered from having inadequate air quality and meteorological databases. Emissions representations often were unreliable; uncertainties were too high. More than two thirds of the performance evaluation efforts were judged to be substandard compared with idealized goals. Meteorological conditions chosen according regulatory guidelines were limited to one or two cases and tended to be similar, thus limiting the extent to which public policy makers could be confident that the emission controls adopted would yield attainment for a broad range of adverse atmospheric conditions. More than half of the studies reviewed did not give sufficient attention to addressing the potential for compensating errors. Corroborative analyses were conducted in only one of the 18 studies reviewed. Insufficient attention was given to the estimation of model and/or input database errors, uncertainties, or variability in all of the cases examined. However, recent SIP and policy‐related regional modeling provides evidence of substantial improvements in the underlying science and available modeling systems used for regulatory decision making. Nevertheless, the availability of suitable databases to support increasingly sophisticated modeling continues to be a concern for many locations. Thus, AQM results may still be subject to significant uncertainties. The evaluative process used here provides a framework for modelers and public policy makers to assess the adequacy of contemporary and future modeling work.     

Attainment Flip-Flops and the Achievability of the Ozone Air Quality Standard

Abstract

This paper presents the results of the first reported study on fine particulate matter (PM) chemical composition at Salamanca, a highly industrialized urban area of Central Mexico. Samples were collected at six sites within the urban area during February and March 2003. Several trace elements, organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), and six ions were analyzed to characterize aerosols. Average concentrations of PM with aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM₁₀) and fine PM with aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) ranged from 32.2 to 76.6 μg m^-3 and 11.1 to 23.7 μg m^-3, respectively. OC (34%), SO₄ ⁼ (25.1%), EC (12.9%), and geological material (12.5%) were the major components of PM_2.5. For PM₁₀, geological material (57.9%), OC (17.3%), and SO₄ ⁼ (9.7%) were the major components. Coarse fraction (PM₁₀ –PM_2.5), geological material (81.7%), and OC (8.6%) were the dominant species, which amounted to 90.4%. Correlation analysis showed that sulfate in PM_2.5 was present as ammonium sulfate. Sulfate showed a significant spatial variation with higher concentrations to the north resulting from predominantly southwesterly winds above the surface layer and by major SO₂ sources that include a power plant and refinery. At the urban site of Cruz Roja it was observed that PM_2.5 mass concentrations were similar to the submicron fraction concentrations. Furthermore, the correlation between EC in PM_2.5 and EC measured from an aethalometer was r² = 0.710. Temporal variations of SO₂ and nitrogen oxide were observed during a day when the maximum concentration of PM_2.5 was measured, which was associated with emissions from the nearby refinery and power plant. From cascade impactor measurements, the three measured modes of airborne particles corresponded with diameters of 0.32, 1.8, and 5.6 μm.     

Consideration of Air Quality Standards for Vegetation With Respect to Ozone

Present evidence suggests that ozone is the most damaging of all air pollutants affecting vegetation. It is the principal oxidant in the photochemical smog complex. Concentrations of ozone have exceeded 0.5 part per million (ppm) in the Los Angeles area. One-tenth of this level for 8 hours is known to injure very sensitive tobacco varieties. Many plant species are visibly affected after a few hours exposure at concentrations much lower than 0.5 ppm. There is also some evidence that ozone reduces plant growth. Many factors must be taken into account when considering standards to protect vegetation from ozone damage. These include ozone concentration and methods of measurement, time of exposure, possible additive effects of other pollutants, sensitivity of plant species, their economic value, and the extent of injury which can be tolerated. The response of a species to the pollutant is conditioned by genetic factors and environmental conditions. Lack of specific routine methods for measuring ozone in ambient air is a handicap. California and Colorado established standards for oxidants at 0.15 and 0.10 ppm, respectively, for 1 hour. How these standards relate to the ozone dosage causing acute and chronic injury to various plant species is discussed.     

Variability of Ozone Air Quality Indicators in Selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas

This article analyzes numerical variability In ozone air quality data to understand how this variability affects the number of violations seen each year in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Three commonly cited violation indices are used: 1) the annual number of expected exceedances averaged over 3 years is greater than 1; 2) the n+ 1th hourly value in n years of data is greater than 0.12 ppm; and 3) the annual number of expected exceedances is greater than 1. Only the first index is consistent with applicable regulations. The analyses indicate that about 23 percent of all MSAs with valid data had one or more change In their ozone violation status between 1979 and 1987. This change in status occurred for approximately 7 percent of all MSA-years of available data. This statistic was about one-third of the value usually obtained when the two incorrect, but commonly used, criteria of ozone violations are used.     

The Characterization of Ozone and Sulfur Dioxide Air Quality Data for Assessing Possible Vegetation Effects

Since the 1960s, much effort has been devoted to collecting and formatting air quality data. This paper discusses 1) the availability of air quality data for assessing potential biological impacts associated with ozone and sulfur dioxide ambient exposures, 2) examples of how air quality data can be characterized for assessing vegetation effects, and 3) the limitations associated with some exposure parameters used for developing relevant vegetation doseresponse yield reduction models. Data are presented showing that some ozone monitoring sites not continuously affected by local urban sources experience consecutive hourly ozone exposures ≥0.10 ppm in the late evening and early morning hours. These sites experience their maximum ozone concentrations either in the spring or summer months. Sites influenced by local rural sources experience their maximum ozone concentrations during the summer months. It is suggested that further research be performed to identify whether the sensitivity of a target organism at the time of exposure, as well as the pollutant concentration and chemical form that enters into the target organism, is as important in defining effects as air pollutant exposure alone.     

Issues Regarding the Ozone Air Quality Standard and the Design Value

Abstract

Two problems exist in the form and the compliance test of the present National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. One is the use of the number of exceedances in the form of the standard, which generates confusion and unnecessary complexity when the form is translated to the design value. The other is the requirement of a zero percent chance of violation in the compliance test, which makes the NAAQS considerably more stringent than generally assumed. There are also two sample-size problems in the estimation procedure for the design value. One is the upward creeping of the (n+l)th highest value in n years as n increases from one in the table look-up approach. The other is the infinite-sample-size assumption instead of the number of high-ozone season days per year for the daily maximum ozone concentrations in the distribution fitting approach. Both problems lead to an exaggeration of the design value.

The above problems can be removed in a revised NAAQS by (1) using a statistic that is identical to the design value itself in the form of the standard, (2) defining the design value as an n-year mean of, say, the annual mth highest values rather than the xth highest value in n years, and (3) using a simple compliance test like the t test that compares the design value with the level of the standard, taking into account the year-to-year fluctuation of the annual mth highest values. When the design value of an area is close to the level of the standard, the test provides a natural “too close to call” interval, which adjusts itself with the fluctuation of the annual mth highest values, so that as the fluctuation increases, the ability to assign the compliance status of the area decreases. The inclusion of a “too close to call” interval or category in the standard is critical to reduce the tendency toward ozone attainment flip-flops in areas approaching attainment and to assure that the ozone NAAQS is not more or less stringent than it appears.     

Air Quality Modeling of Interpollutant Trading for Ozone Precursors in an Urban Area

Abstract

Emission trading is a market‐based approach designed to improve the efficiency and economic viability of emission control programs; emission trading has typically been confined to trades among single pollutants. Interpollutant trading (IPT), as described in this work, allows for trades among emissions of different compounds that affect the same air quality end point, in this work, ambient ozone (O₃) concentrations. Because emissions of different compounds impact air quality end points differently, weighting factors or trading ratios (tons of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) equivalent to a ton of emissions of volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) must be developed to allow for IPT. In this work, IPT indices based on reductions in O₃ concentrations and based on reductions in population exposures to O₃ were developed and evaluated using a three‐dimensional gridded photochemical model for Austin, TX, a city currently on the cusp of nonattainment with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O₃ concentrations averaged over 8 hr. Emissions of VOC and NO_x from area and mobile sources in Austin are larger than emissions from point sources. The analysis indicated that mobile and area sources exhibited similar impacts. Trading ratios based on maximum O₃ concentration or population exposure were similar. In contrast, the trading ratios did exhibit significant (more than a factor of two) day‐to‐day variability. Analysis of the air quality modeling indicated that the daily variability in trading ratios could be attributed to daily variations in both emissions and meteorology.     

Performance and Diagnostic Evaluation of Ozone Predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study

Abstract

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O₃) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O₃ was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O₃ on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O₃ concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O₃ very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within [H11006]20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O₃ within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites.The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O₃ vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64 –77% of observed NO₂ photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O₃/nitrogen oxide (NO_x) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NO_x-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O₃ production efficiency values (inferred from O₃-CO correlation) are close to the observations.     

Air Quality Impact of Aircraft at Ten U.S. Air Force Bases

Data on visits to New York City metropolitan area hospital emergency rooms for asthmatic attacks were analyzed to identify asthma “events”: days when the number of such visits was unusually high. In the fall season such days tended to occur simultaneously at all hospitals of the study, and thus can be plausibly associated with some environmental agent acting simultaneously throughout the city. Data on sulfur dioxide and particulate concentrations from the 40-station New York City Aerometric Network were used as pollution measures, and a search for a relationship between asthma “events” and air pollution levels on the same day and on the preceding day was made using standard statistical techniques. No relationship was found.     

Simulation of the Environmental Impact of an Airport on the Surrounding Air Quality

It is the purpose of this study to demonstrate the procedure involved in simulating those average and maximum pollutant concentrations at or around an airport which fall under the control of the Clean Air Act. The information is useful, when planning new or expanding existing airports, when estimating the impact of airports on the surrounding air quality, and when assessing the effectiveness of control procedures. Simulation of airport air quality requires the accurate assessment of the temporal and spatial emission patterns. This involves the tabulation of air traffic density by type and engine, make and model of aircraft, and engine mode number; the use of fuel by different aircraft; the pollutant emission rates by engine model and operational mode; the allocation of emission rates to the respective runways, turn-off points, taxi-ways, and parking areas, and the time each aircraft spent in the different operational modes. The resulting emission pattern for the Honolulu International Airport reflects scheduled and unscheduled commercial and military jet and piston aircraft and nonaircraft operations. Using this and the appropriate meteorological information average and maximum surface concentrations were calculated and compared with local ambient air quality standards. The calculation of concentrations is based on a newly developed diffusion model incorporating harmonic mean wind speeds for every degree of wind direction as determined by a Parzen maximum likelihood interpolation technique, and the assumption of log-normal concentration distributions. It is shown that for some pollutants the air quality standards are substantially exceeded, and it is concluded that airports may have a considerable adverse impact on their surrounding air quality.     

The Impact of Migration on Air Quality Dose-Response Functions: A Case Study of Jacksonville,Florida

The purpose of this study was to analyze quantitative relationships between air pollution and mortality, and to examine the impact of migration on pollution-related mortality functions. Dose-response functions were estimated for intra-urban variations in ambient air quality for the city of Jacksonville, Florida. Indices of air pollution used in this study were sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and total suspended particulates (TSP). Ambient air quality was measured by the dispersion of TSP and SO₂ across census tracts using the SYMAP dispersion model in conjunction with air quality monitoring stations.

Holding other things constant, TSP apeared to have no statistically significant association with mortality rates. By contrast, the significance of the estimated coefficient for the pollution variable, SO₂, supported the contention that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between air pollution and mortality rates. However, after making a limited test of the impact of migration on dose-response functions, the SO₂ pollution variable was no longer statistically significant. That is, recent migrants may have limited exposure to the existing level of SO₂ in Jacksonville, Florida, but carry with them long term exposure to more heavily polluted areas in the Northern United States. The results of this study suggest that further epidemiological studies and economic analysis of the health effects on air pollution should make some attempt to control the migration effect.