Mixed-model statistical analysis of fuel, equipment, mileage, and driving schedule effects on particulate matter emissions from heavy diesel-powered vehicles

An extensive experimental program has been conducted to evaluate the comparative effects of California Air Resources Board diesel fuel and an ultra-low-sulfur (S) diesel (with and without aftermarket passive filtering devices) on mass emissions of particulate matter (PM) in heavy vehicles. Tests have been performed on 20 Class 8 trucks at two high-mileage levels using two different driving schedules. The design of the test program facilitates the use of mixed-model statistical analysis, which allows more appropriate treatment of the explanatory variables than normally achieved. The analysis suggests that the ultra-low-S diesel fuel yields extremely low mean PM emissions when used in conjunction with a particulate filter, even at high mileage, but that the estimates are highly variable. The high degree of uncertainty, caused at least in part by large vehicle-to-vehicle variation, may obscure the true PM response and adversely impact attainment of increasingly more stringent diesel PM emissions standards in the United States.     

Evaluation of the Effects of Emission Reductions on Secondary Particulate Matter in the South Coast Air Basin of California

An Aerosol Trajectory Model (ATM) is applied to the South Coast Air Basin of California for a two-day episode in August 1982 to evaluate proposed control strategies that aim to reduce atmospheric aerosols. Model predictions Indicate that secondary organic aerosols decrease linearly with reactive hydrocarbon emissions. In addition, the model shows that If sulf ate is produced only in the gas phase by oxidation of SO₂, then reduction In SO₂ emissions yields a nearly proportional decrease In sulfate levels. Reduction in ammonia emissions, combined with reduction of NO_x emissions, gives the best results In terms of nitrate control. The order in which the emission controls are implemented Is predicted to have a major impact on the reduction of secondary atmospheric aerosols.     

Electricity from fossil fuels without CO2 emissions: assessing the costs of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration in U.S. electricity markets.

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO2 emissions via CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO2 mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO2 capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a "bottom-up" engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000

The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.     

Rates of conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfate in a scrubbed power plant plume.

The rate of conversion of SO2 to SO4(2-) was re-estimated from measurements made in the plume of the Cumberland power plant, located on the Cumberland River in north-central Tennessee, after installation of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) scrubbers for SO2 removal in 1994. The ratio of SO2 to NOy emissions into the plume has been reduced to approximately 0.1, compared with a prescrubber value of approximately 2. To determine whether the SO2 emissions reduction has correspondingly reduced plume-generated particulate SO4(2-) production, we have compared the rates of conversion before and after scrubber installation. The prescrubber estimates were developed from measurements made during the Tennessee Plume Study conducted in the late 1970s. The postscrubber estimates are based upon two series of research flights in the summers of 1998 and 1999. During two of these flights, the Cumberland plume did not mix with adjacent power plant plumes, enabling rate constants for conversion to be estimated from samples taken in the plume at three downwind distances. Dry deposition losses and the fact the fact that SO2 is no longer in large excess compared with SO4(2-) have been taken into account, and an upper limit for the conversion rate constant was re-estimated based on plume excess aerosol volume. The estimated upper limit values are 0.069 hr(-1) and 0.034 hr(-1) for the 1998 and 1999 data, respectively. The 1999 rate is comparable with earlier values for nonscrubbed plumes, and although the 1998 upper limit value is higher than expected, these estimates do not provide strong evidence for deviation from a linear relationship between SO2 emissions and SO4(2-) formation.     

A fuel-based assessment of off-road diesel engine emissions

The use of diesel engines in off-road applications is a significant source of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM10). Such off-road applications include railroad locomotives, marine vessels, and equipment used for agriculture, construction, logging, and mining. Emissions from these sources are only beginning to be controlled. Due to the large number of these engines and their wide range of applications, total activity and emissions from these sources are uncertain. A method for estimating the emissions from off-road diesel engines based on the quantity of diesel fuel consumed is presented. Emission factors are normalized by fuel consumption, and total activity is estimated by the total fuel consumed. Total exhaust emissions from off-road diesel equipment (excluding locomotives and marine vessels) in the United States during 1996 have been estimated to be 1.2 x 10(9) kg NOx and 1.2 x 10(8) kg PM10. Emissions estimates published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are 2.3 times higher for both NOx and exhaust PM10 emissions than estimates based directly on fuel consumption. These emissions estimates disagree mainly due to differences in activity estimates, rather than to differences in the emission factors. All current emission inventories for off-road engines are uncertain because of the limited in-use emissions testing that has been performed on these engines. Regional- and state-level breakdowns in diesel fuel consumption by off-road mobile sources are also presented. Taken together with on-road measurements of diesel engine emissions, results of this study suggest that in 1996, off-road diesel equipment (including agriculture, construction, logging, and mining equipment, but not locomotives or marine vessels) was responsible for 10% of mobile source NOx emissions nationally, whereas on-road diesel vehicles contributed 33%.     

Estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions 1860–1993

This paper provides the first time series estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions from the mid-19th century to the present. Our purpose is to provide time series estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions for global climate models estimated or calibrated using historical time series data. Previous estimates of methane emissions include “top-down” (deconvolution) estimates of total emissions, estimates of global anthropogenic emissions for the 16th century, and various estimates of anthropogenic and natural emissions in the 1980s and 1990s. This study uses previously published point estimates for the 16th century and the 1980s and early 1990s and a variety of historical time series of proxy variables to estimate a time series of global anthropogenic methane emissions. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions have increased from about 80 million tonnes per annum in 1860 to about 380 million tonnes in 1990. The relative importance of various emission sources changes over time. The rate of increase now may be slowing. A comparison with the estimates generated by Khalil and Rasmussen suggests that natural sources of methane have declined over the period. There are, however, great uncertainties in these estimates which future research may be able to reduce.     

Air Pollution Problems of the Steel Industry

Urban air pollution has traditionally been modeled using annual, or at best, seasonal emissions inventories and climatology. These averaging techniques may introduce uncertainty into the analysis, if specific emissions (e.g. SO₂) are correlated with dispersion factors on a short-term basis. This may well be the case for space heating emissions. An analysis of this problem, using hourly climatological and residential emission estimates for six U.S. cities, indicates that the errors introduced using such averages are modest (~ ± 12%) for annual average concentrations. Maximum hourly concentrations vary considerably more, since maximum heat demand and worst case dispersion are in general not coincident. The paper thus provides a basis for estimating more realistic air pollution Impacts due to residential space heating.     

Product Gudie/1987

A computer program has been written to determine the cost of building and operating wet scrubbers on individual coal fired utilities in the states where emissions are likely to affect the acid rain problem in the eastern United States. The program differs from many other estimates since it calculates the cost for each of 831 individual sites. The capital costs for installing scrubbers on the top fifty sulfur oxide emitting plants will be about $20 billion. This will result in an increase in the cost of electricity on an average of 0.88 cents/kWh and a reduction of sulfur oxide emissions from 1980 of 7,100,000 tons per year. An additional reduction of at least 1,000,000 tons per year can be obtained by requiring all plants burning oil to burn low sulfur oil. These figures assume utilities will use least emissions dispatching and will use local coals containing at least 3.5 percent sulfur. The use of local coals should result in a further saving of at least 0.2 cents/kWh. This should make available a large supply of low sulfur coal which could reduce emissions of sulfur oxides by up to 1,000,000 tons per year. The SO₂ reductions will be continued for at least the next thirteen years and have a very significant effect through the year 2010.     

Electricity from Fossil Fuels without CO2 Emissions: Assessing the Costs of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration in U.S. Electricity Markets

ABSTRACT

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO₂ emissions via CO₂ capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO₂ mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO₂ capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a “bottom-up” engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Air pollutant emissions from the development,production, and processing of Marcellus Shale natural gas

The Marcellus Shale is one of the largest natural gas reserves in the United States; it has recently been the focus of intense drilling and leasing activity. This paper describes an air emissions inventory for the development, production, and processing of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale region for 2009 and 2020. It includes estimates of the emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and primary fine particulate matter (≤2.5 µm aerodynamic diameter; PM_2.5) from major activities such as drilling, hydraulic fracturing, compressor stations, and completion venting. The inventory is constructed using a process-level approach; a Monte Carlo analysis is used to explicitly account for the uncertainty. Emissions were estimated for 2009 and projected to 2020, accounting for the effects of existing and potential additional regulations. In 2020, Marcellus activities are predicted to contribute 6–18% (95% confidence interval) of the NO_x emissions in the Marcellus region, with an average contribution of 12% (129 tons/day). In 2020, the predicted contribution of Marcellus activities to the regional anthropogenic VOC emissions ranged between 7% and 28% (95% confidence interval), with an average contribution of 12% (100 tons/day). These estimates account for the implementation of recently promulgated regulations such as the Tier 4 off-road diesel engine regulation and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Oil and Gas Rule. These regulations significantly reduce the Marcellus VOC and NO_x emissions, but there are significant opportunities for further reduction in these emissions using existing technologies.

Implications: The Marcellus Shale is one of the largest natural gas reserves in United States. The development and production of this gas may emit substantial amounts of oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds. These emissions may have special significance because Marcellus development is occurring close to areas that have been designated nonattainment for the ozone standard. Control technologies exist to substantially reduce these impacts. PM_2.5 emissions are predicted to be negligible in a regional context, but elemental carbon emissions from diesel powered equipment may be important.     

Mitigation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from drained irrigated rice fields

One of the important cultural practices that affect methane and nitrous oxide emissions from tropical rice plantations is the water drainage system. While drainage can reduce methane emissions, it can also increase nitrous oxide emissions, as well as reduce yields. In this experiment, four different water drainage systems were compared in a rice field in central Thailand including: (1) continuous flooding, (2) mid-season drainage, (3) multiple drainage and (4) a local method (drainage was done according to local cultural practice) in order to find a system of drainage that would optimize yields while simultaneously limiting methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Methane and nitrous oxide emission were observed and compared with rice yield and physical changes of rice plants. It was found that drainage during the flowering period could reduce methane emission. Interestingly, nitrous oxide emission was related to number of drain days rather than the frequency of draining. Fewer drain days can help reduce nitrous oxide emission. The mid-season drainage and the multiple drainage, with 6.9% and 11.4% reduction in rice yield, respectively, had an average methane emission per crop 27% and 35% lower when compared to the local method. Draining with fewer drain days during the flowering period was recommended as a compromise between emissions and yield. The field drainage can be used as an option to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice fields with acceptable yield reduction. Mid-season drainage during the rice flowering period, with a shortened drainage period (3 days), is suggested as a compromise between the need to reduce global warming and current socio-economic realities.     

Estimating historical anthropogenic global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850–1990

It is important to establish a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time when assessing the possible effects of global change and acid rain. This study developed a database of annual estimates of national sulfur emissions from 1850 to 1990. A common methodology was applied across all years and countries allowing for global totals to be produced by adding estimates from all countries. The consistent approach facilitates the modification of the database and the observation of changes at national, regional, or global levels. The emission estimates were based on net production (i.e., production plus imports minus exports), sulfur content, and sulfur retention for each country's production activities. Because the emission estimates were based on the above considerations, our database offers an opportunity to independently compare our results with those estimates based on individual country estimates. Fine temporal resolution clearly shows emission changes associated with specific historical events (e.g., wars, depressions, etc.) on a regional, national, or global basis. The spatial pattern of emissions shows that the US, the USSR, and China were the main sulfur emitters (i.e., approximately 50% of the total) in the world in 1990. The USSR and the US appear to have stabilized their sulfur emissions over the past 20 yr, and the recent increases in global sulfur emissions are linked to the rapid increases in emissions from China. Sulfur emissions have been reduced in some cases by switching from high- to low-sulfur coals. Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has apparently made important contributions to emission reductions in only a few countries, such as Germany.     

A Fuel-Based Assessment of Off-Road Diesel Engine Emissions

ABSTRACT

The use of diesel engines in off-road applications is a significant source of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particulate matter (PM₁₀). Such off-road applications include railroad locomotives, marine vessels, and equipment used for agriculture, construction, logging, and mining. Emissions from these sources are only beginning to be controlled. Due to the large number of these engines and their wide range of applications, total activity and emissions from these sources are uncertain. A method for estimating the emissions from off-road diesel engines based on the quantity of diesel fuel consumed is presented. Emission factors are normalized by fuel consumption, and total activity is estimated by the total fuel consumed.

Total exhaust emissions from off-road diesel equipment (excluding locomotives and marine vessels) in the United States during 1996 have been estimated to be 1.2 × 10⁹ kg NO_x and 1.2 x 10⁸ kg PM₁₀. Emissions estimates published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are 2.3 times higher for both NO_x and exhaust PM₁₀ emissions than estimates based directly on fuel consumption. These emissions estimates disagree mainly due to differences in activity estimates, rather than to differences in the emission factors. All current emission inventories for off-road engines are uncertain because of the limited in-use emissions testing that has been performed on these engines. Regional- and state-level breakdowns in diesel fuel consumption by off-road mobile sources are also presented. Taken together with on-road measurements of diesel engine emissions, results of this study suggest that in 1996, off-road diesel equipment (including     

U. S. EPA Views as “Unwarranted” Federal Regulatory Involvement in Odor Control

ABSTRACT

Although there have been several studies examining emissions of criteria pollutants from in-use alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), little is known about emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from these vehicles. This paper explores HAP tailpipe emissions from a variety of AFVs operating in the federal government fleet and compares these emissions to emissions from identical vehicles operating on reformulated gasoline. Emissions estimates are presented for a variety of fuel/model combinations and on four HAPs (acetaldehyde, 1,3-butadi-ene, benzene, and formaldehyde). The results indicate that all AFVs tested offer reduced emissions of HAPs, with the following exceptions: ethanol fueled vehicles emit more acetaldehyde than RFG vehicles, and ethanol- and methanol-fueled vehicles emit more formaldehyde than RFG vehicles. The results from this paper can lead to more accurate emissions factors for HAPs, thus improving HAP inventory and associated risk estimates for both AFVs and conventional vehicles.     

Atmospheric emissions of mercury from Australian point sources

The UN Global Mercury Assessment (GMA) estimates that atmospheric emissions of mercury from Australian stationary combustion sources were 97.0 tonnes for the year of 1995. This is more than 90% of the estimated emissions from stationary combustion for the whole of North America, and seems abnormally high for a country with a population of around 20 million, in spite of the fact that most of Australia's stationary energy supply is provided by coal. It is also significantly larger than previous estimates of mercury emissions from Australian sources. New estimates of Australian mercury emissions from stationary energy sources, based on both a top down and bottom up approach, are presented. These estimates can be reconciled for black coal fired power stations, but suggest that the bottom up approach (the Australian National Pollutant Inventory) significantly under-estimates emissions from brown coal fired plant, if mercury capture efficiencies in these plants are low, as observed for lignite-fired plant. The major uncertainties in these estimates are the coal mercury content in coals burnt in Australian power stations, and the mercury capture efficiency in particulate control devices used at these stations. Based on these estimates, Australian emissions of mercury from stationary energy are currently 2–8 tonnes/year, significantly lower than the GMA estimate.     

Emissions of persistent organic pollutants and eight candidate POPs from UNECE–Europe in 2000, 2010 and 2020 and the emission reduction resulting from the implementation of the UNECE POP protocol

An emission inventory for persistent organic pollutants (POP) is made for the year 2000 based on submissions of emission data from the Parties to the Convention on LRTAP. The inventory covers the UNECE territory except Canada and the United States. For the countries, sources or compounds lacking in official submissions, default emission estimates have been prepared and applied to complete the inventory. An indicative comparison of the year 2000 emissions with the 1990 emission levels from a previous study is presented as well as emission projections for 2010, 2015, 2020 based on activity scenarios developed in the framework of the EU CAFE programme. The key source analysis of the projected emissions assuming full implementation of the UNECE protocols allows identification of remaining source strengths which subsequently are briefly discussed in terms of their potential for (further) reduction. A number of chemicals are currently being investigated for inclusion on the UN/ECE POPs protocol list of priority compounds but for these substances emission estimation methodologies are scarce or non-existent. For eight of these substances (dicofol, edosulfan, hexachlorobutadiene (HBU), pentabromodiphenyl ether (PBDE), pentachlorobenzene (PCBe), pentachlorophenol (PCP), polychloronated naftalenes (PCN) and short chained chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs)) an emission estimation methodology is proposed and a preliminary emission inventory for the year 2000 is presented.     

A Maximum Entropy Approach to Estimating Emissions

ABSTRACT

A maximum information entropy method of calculating probabilistic estimates of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by the wood furniture and fixture coating industry is presented. The maximum entropy approach is used to produce minimally biased probability distributions for number of firms, coating use, and coating emission factors from existing summary statistics. These distributions are combined to estimate VOC emissions. The maximum entropy emissions estimate provides information to support probabilistic modeling of regional air quality, probabilistic assessment of emission reduction strategies, and risk assessments. Accurate estimation of emission distributions produces more informed regulatory decisionmaking, risk comparisons, and regulatory and scientific priority setting.     

Emissions of gases and particles from biomass burning during the 20th century using satellite data and an historical reconstruction

A new dataset of emissions of trace gases and particles resulting from biomass burning has been developed for the historical and the recent period (1900–2005). The purpose of this work is to provide a consistent gridded emissions dataset of atmospheric chemical species from 1900 to 2005 for chemistry-climate simulations. The inventory is built in two steps. First, fire emissions are estimated for the recent period (1997–2005) using satellite products (GBA2000 burnt areas and ATSR fire hotspots); the temporal and spatial distribution of the CO₂ emissions for the 1997–2005 period is estimated through a calibration of ATSR fire hotspots. The historical inventory, covering the 1900–2000 period on a decadal basis, is derived from the historical reconstruction of burned areas from Mouillot and Field (2005). The historical emissions estimates are forced, for each main ecosystem, to agree with the recent inventory estimates, ensuring consistency between past and recent emissions.The methodology used for estimating the fire emissions is discussed, together with the time evolution of biomass burning emissions during the 20th century, first at the global scale and then for specific regions. The results are compared with the distributions provided by other inventories and results of inverse modeling studies.     

Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama

This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.