A Reassessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

The potential adverse effects of environmental change on agriculture have motivated considerable public research on this topic. Acid deposition, gaseous air pollutants, stratosphere ozone depletion and "green house" phenomena, individually and in combination, have been or are being evaluated in terms of effects on agricultural productivity. Assessments of the economic consequences of such effects have also been performed as input into the regulatory process. As with any applied bioeconomic analysis, the credibility of these economic assessments is dependent on the quality of the natural science and other data on the pollutant In question.

The ability of economists to assess the agricultural effects of one important pollutant, tropospheric ozone, has been Improved by the recently completed National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The structure, protocols and initial plant science findings of this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency program have been presented in this journal (see, for example, Heck et al).^1-2 In a related article,³ we reported the economic consequences of those preliminary ozone crop yield effects. Summary plant science findings have now been published.⁴

We provide here a more complete analysis of estimated benefits from reductions in troposphere ozone based on the final results of the NCLAN plant science research. In doing so, we concentrate on improvements in the modeling and underlying data which are reflected In this current assessment. While uncertainties still remain, these improvements should result in more defensible estimates of the magnitude of ozone’s effects on U.S. agriculture.     

An Empirical Model for Forecasting Maximum Daily Ozone Levels in the Northeastern U.S.

A stepwise multiple regression procedure was employed to develop the best .fit equation relating maximum afternoon ozone concentrations to meteorological and emission factors along a 24h upwind air parcel trajectory. The equation was developed using ozone data from receptor sites in Northern New Jersey and the resulting correlation coefficient was 0.96. The four most significant variables were the upwind ozone maximum on the previous day, today’s maximum temperature, the previous day’s upwind maximum temperature and the mean wind speed from the surface to 1000 m. The model was also successfully tested at 5 other sites in the Northeastern Quadrant of the United States. The results indicate that the model could be a potentially useful tool for air pollution forecasters in predicting maximum ozone concentrations in this quadrant of the country.     

California Statewide Assessment of the Effects of Ozone on Crop Productivity

Six properties appear desirable for any set of ozone attainment criteria: (1) sufficient stringency to protect public health, (2) simplicity and understandability, (3) sensitivity to real changes in air quality, (4) stability against meteorological fluctuations, (5) use of as much data as possible, and (6) equivalence between the stringency the criteria appear to mandate, and what they actually mandate. We consider how the federal attainment criteria might be improved with respect to Properties 4 through 6 while being equally strong on 1 through 3. Whether the federal standard meets Property 1 has been the subject of debate, but our analysis would apply also to a modified standard. We show that there are subtleties in how improvements might be made. In particular, basing the attainment status on a statistic with low variance may not lead to a more stable criterion, and although it is easy to find a criterion that makes it hard for a district with bad air to reach attainment, or a district with good air to get out of attainment, it is hard to find a criterion that does both. This suggests using different criteria for districts that are out of attainment from districts that are in attainment. Initially the burden of proof would be on the district to prove that its air is of attainment quality. However, once the district has achieved attainment the burden of proof would shift; the district would remain in attainment unless there was strong evidence to the contrary. An evaluation of a set of criteria based on this idea showed improvements over the federal criteria with respect to the last three desirable properties-stability, use of data, and equivalent stringency-with some sacrifice in simplicity and sensitivity.     

Ambient Ozone Concentration Patterns among Eastern U.S. Urban Areas Using Factor Analysis

Data on dally maximum ozone concentrations measured at ambient air monitoring stations operated by state and local air pollution control agencies in the Eastern United States were analyzed using principal factor analysis. Four orthogonal factors representing O₃ formation potentials were derived using the statistical package SPSS; these factors accounted for over two-thirds of the variations in 1978 summer O₃ levels at 21 urban-oriented stations. The analysis confirmed that O₃ variations are similar among stations within defined geographical areas; this confirmation supports the widely held theory that ambient O₃ formations are reglonwlde. The analysis suggested that trends analysis for determining general progress in improving O₃ air quality should be based on aggregate statistics from clusters of monitors rather than from a single monitoring station within areas associated with the derived factors.     

Uncertainties in the Current Knowledge of Some Atmospheric Trace Gases Associated with U.S. Agriculture: A Review

Abstract

Approximately 80 different crop species are grown in the United States in widely differing geographic areas, climatic and edaphic conditions, and management practices. Although the majority of cultivated acreage in the United States is planted with only about 10 primary crops, uncertainties associated with trace gas emissions arise from: (1) limited data availability, (2) inaccurate estimates because of large temporal and spatial variability in trace gas composition and magnitude of trace gas emissions from agricultural activities, (3) differing characteristics of pollutant emissions from highly dispersed animal feed-lots, and (4) limited understanding of the emissions of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) associated with agriculture. Although emission issues are of concern, so also is atmospheric deposition to cropping systems, including wet and dry nitrogen, minerals, and organic compounds. These can have feedback effects on trace gas emissions. Overall, the many gaps in our understanding of these aspects of agricultural systems deserve serious attention.     

Modification of an Ambient Air Quality Model for Assessment of U. S. Naval Aviation Emittants

Previous studies have indicated that the EPA-HIWAY model significantly overestimates the pollutant concentrations for stable atmospheric conditions, especially under parallel wind-road orientation angles with low wind speed. This overestimation is due to the fact that the model's dispersion parameters do not properly account for the traffic-induced turbulence near roadways. In this paper, the Pasquill- Gifford dispersion curves used by the model are modified based on the recent studies that have quantified the nature of the trafficinduced turbulence and its influence on the pollutant dispersion in the near-field. The results show that the model performance is significantly improved when these new dispersion curves in conjunction with an aerodynamic drag factor, which in a rough way accounts for the change in the mean wind field due to the moving vehicles, are used in the HIWAY model.     

A status report on the U.S. national dioxin study

In 1983, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) embarked on an extensive investigation of the presence and extent of contamination of the national environment by CDDs/CDFs. This status report is a prelude to a final report to be delivered to the US Congress in December, 1985.     

Effects of Nighttime Chemistry upon the Transport of Ozone and Ozone Precursors

It has been recognized for several years that ozone in rural areas can exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for photochemical oxidant whirh was 0.08 ppm for one hour, not to be exceeded more than once per year. During the summer of 1973, the NAAQS was exceeded from 15 to 37% of the time at four rural monitoring sites in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia.¹ This is a greater violation rate than is found in many urban areas. Dimitriades and Altshuller² have enumerated four possible sources for this rural ozone: (a) transport from urban areas, (b) local photochemical generation from urban ozone precursors, (c) local photochemical generation from precursors of rural origin which may be man-made or natural, and (d) injection of stratospheric ozone into the rural area. This paper considers the chemistry pertinent to the first two of these possible sources of rural ozone, namely the long distance (overnight) transport of ozone and ozone precursors.     

Economic Assessment of the Effects of Air Pollution on Agricultural Crops in the San Joaquin Valley

Physical and economic impacts of 1978 ambient levels of ozone and sulfur dioxide on 33 crops In the San Joaquin Valley are estimated. The field data regression approach Is used and evaluated for estimating yield losses. The effects of alternative air pollution measures and regression functional forms are evaluated. An economic model is employed that accounts for both farm and market responses to yield improvements from reduced air pollution. Economic damages were estimated to exceed $100 million in 1978 with the biggest losers being the producers of cotton and producers and consumers of grapes, a crop that has heretofore been Ignored in agricultural assessments of pollution damage.     

Effects of Fluoride on Agriculture

The effects of atmospheric fluorides on plants are summarized with respect to the level of biological organization at which they occur. The factors that determine the occurrence and degree of these effects are reviewed briefly. A series of economic effects on agriculture is postulated and its possible relationship to the botanical effects of fluorides is discussed.     

Visibility reductions from soil dust in the Western U.S.

Soil dust can at times contribute significantly to atmospheric turbidity in the western U.S.A. An examination of meteorological surface observations from three sites in the west shows an increase in the number of cases of blowing dust (BD) over the past 30 years, while the mean wind speed associated with BD has decreased in growing, urban areas. Dust is reported more often in developing areas (such as Denver and Tucson) than in less disturbed areas (Winslow, AZ). Dust turbidity models, whose development was stimulated by the 1930s great plains dust bowl catastrophe are applicable to western soils as well and help explain visibility reductions caused by dust. Vehicle generated dust from unpaved roads can limit visibilities to values of one-third or less than the molecular scattering limit. The upper limits to the amounts of dust and visibility reduction to be expected in the west for differing meteorological conditions are calculated. It is estimated that dust devils may occasionally contribute 247 μg m ⁻³ of dust to the lower atmosphere in the west and a possible correlation between dust devils and human activity is noted.     

Source apportionment: findings from the U.S. Supersites Program

Receptor models are used to identify and quantify source contributions to particulate matter and volatile organic compounds based on measurements of many chemical components at receptor sites. These components are selected based on their consistent appearance in some source types and their absence in others. UNMIX, positive matrix factorization (PMF), and effective variance are different solutions to the chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model equations and are implemented on available software. In their more general form, the CMB equations allow spatial, temporal, transport, and particle size profiles to be combined with chemical source profiles for improved source resolution. Although UNMIX and PMF do not use source profiles explicitly as input data, they still require measured profiles to justify their derived source factors. The U.S. Supersites Program provided advanced datasets to apply these CMB solutions in different urban areas. Still lacking are better characterization of source emissions, new methods to estimate profile changes between source and receptor, and systematic sensitivity tests of deviations from receptor model assumptions.     

Source Apportionment: Findings from the U.S. Supersites Program

Abstract

Receptor models are used to identify and quantify source contributions to particulate matter and volatile organic compounds based on measurements of many chemical components at receptor sites. These components are selected based on their consistent appearance in some source types and their absence in others. UNMIX, positive matrix factorization (PMF), and effective variance are different solutions to the chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model equations and are implemented on available software. In their more general form, the CMB equations allow spatial, temporal, transport, and particle size profiles to be combined with chemical source profiles for improved source resolution. Although UNMIX and PMF do not use source profiles explicitly as input data, they still require measured profiles to justify their derived source factors. The U.S. Supersites Program provided advanced datasets to apply these CMB solutions in different urban areas. Still lacking are better characterization of source emissions, new methods to estimate profile changes between source and receptor, and systematic sensitivity tests of deviations from receptor model assumptions.     

Characterization of DNAPL from the U.S. DOE Savannah River Site

The composition of chlorinated hydrocarbon DNAPLs (dense non-aqueous phase liquids) from field sites can be substantially different than the material originally purchased for use as a solvent. Waste management practices at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS) included co-disposal of a wide range of organic and inorganic wastes. In 1991, a clear, orange-colored DNAPL was found in two wells near the SRS M-area settling basin. Waste effluent from the fuel and target fabrication facilities that were discharged to this settling basin included acids, caustics, metals and chlorinated solvents. The characterization of the SRS DNAPL suggests that numerous constituents partitioned into the DNAPL during its use as a solvent, co-disposal and ultimate migration through the subsurface. Trace constituents in the DNAPL include metals, from processing operations or co-disposal practices and subsurface minerals, high molecular weight hydrocarbons and alkyl esters, and acids. This complex mixture results in DNAPL-water interfacial properties that are substantially different than would be expected from a simple mixture of PCE and TCE. Under conditions when there is a high DNAPL to water volume ratio, a semi-rigid film accumulates on water droplets suspended in the DNAPL. It is concluded that the array of precipitated metal species comprising this film contributes to the interfacial tension that is over an order of magnitude lower than expected for a "clean" PCE/TCE mixture.     

Assessment of heterogeneity of metal composition of fine particulate matter collected from eight U.S. counties using principal component analysis

The main objectives of this study are to (1) characterize chemical constituents of particulate matter (PM) and (2) compare overall differences in PM collected from eight US. counties. This project was undertaken as a part of a larger research program conducted by the Johns Hopkins Particulate Matter Research Center (JHPMRC). The goal of the JHPMRC is to explore the relationship between health effects and exposure to ambient PM of differing composition. The JHPMRC collected weekly filter-based ambient fine particle samples from eight US. counties between January 2008 and January 2010. Each sampling effort consisted of a 5-6-week sampling period. Filters were analyzed for 25 metals using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Overall compositional differences were ranked by principal component analysis (PCA). The results showed that weekly concentrations of each element varied 3-40 times between the eight counties. PCA showed that the first five principal components explained 85% of the total variance. The authors found significant overall compositional differences in PM as the average of standardized principal component scores differed between the counties. These findings demonstrate PCA is a useful tool to identify the differences in PM compositional mixtures by county. These differences will be helpful for epidemiological and toxicological studies to help explain why health risks associated with PM exposure are different in locations with similar mass concentrations of PM.     

Simplified Models of U.S. Acid Rain Control Costs

Simplified algorithms are presented for estimating the cost of controlling sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from existing coal-fired power plants on a state-by-state basis. Results are obtained using the detailed Utility Control Strategy Model (UCSM) to calculate the Impacts of emission reductions ranging from approximately 30 percent to 90 percent of projected 1995 emissions for 18 different scenarios and 36 states. Scenarios include the use of two dry SO₂ removal technologies (lime spray dryers and LIMB) as potential options for power plant retrofit, in addition to currently available emission control options including coal switching, coal cleaning and wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD). Technical assumptions relating to FGD system performance and the upgrading of existing cold-side electrostatic precipitators (ESP) for reduced sulfur levels are also analyzed, along with the effects of interest rates, coal prices, coal choice restrictions, plant lifetime, and plant operating levels. Results are summarized in the form of a 3-term polynomial equation for each state, giving total annualized SO₂ control cost as a function of the total SO₂ emissions reduction for each scenario. Excellent statistical fits to UCSM results are obtained for these generalized equations.     

Principles and organization of methods for establishing maximum permissible emissions in the cities of the U.S.S.R.

Principles are presented for standardization and establishment of maximum permissible emissions (MPE) into the atmosphere in accordance with theoretical and experimental investigations of pollutant diffusion from sources of various types, accounting for meteorological and topographical conditions. MPE refers to the amount of pollutants from a single source that together with other neighbouring sources give rise to air pollution concentrations that do not exceed the air quality standard. Due to a lack of confidence in theories it is impossible at present to prove the establishment of MPE and our present technical knowledge supports only a gradual decrease of emissions and determination of temporarily agreed emissions (TAE). For determination of MPE and TAE from multiple urban sources, calculation and analysis of their total concentration field are performed. The physical bases of the methods for standardization of industrial emissions officially adopted in the U.S.S.R. for practical use are presented. It is considered how standardization and establishment of MPE and control on their fulfillment are organized in the U.S.S.R.     

Inorganic PM2.5 at a U.S. agricultural site

In this study, we present approximately two years (January 1999-December 2000) of atmospheric NH3, NH4+, HCl, Cl-, HNO3, NO3-, SO2, and SO4= concentrations measured by the annular denuder/filter pack method at an agricultural site in eastern North Carolina. This site is influenced by high NH3 emissions from animal production and fertilizer use in the surrounding area and neighboring counties. The two-year mean NH3 concentration is 5.6 (+/-5.13) microg m(-3). The mean concentration of total inorganic PM2.5, which includes SO4=, NO3-, NH4+, and Cl-, is 8.0 (+/-5.84) microg m(-3). SO4=, NO3-, NH4+, and Cl- represent, respectively, 53, 24, 22, and 1% of measured inorganic PM2.5. NH3 contributes 72% of total NH3 + NH4+, on an average. Equilibrium modeling of the gas+aerosol NH3/H2SO4/HNO3 system shows that inorganic PM2.5 is more sensitive to reductions in gas + aerosol concentrations of sulfate and nitrate relative to NH3.     

Day-of-Week behavior of atmospheric ozone in three U.S. cities

The weekly cycles of atmospheric ozone (O3) are of interest because they provide information about the response of O3 to changes in anthropogenic emissions from weekdays to weekends. The weekly behavior of O3 in Chicago, IL; Philadelphia, PA; and Atlanta, GA, is contrasted. In Chicago and Philadelphia, maximum 1-hr average O3 increases on weekends. In Atlanta, O3 builds up from Mondays to Fridays and declines during weekends. In all three areas, volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratios are higher during weekends, resulting from greater than proportionate decreases in NOx relative to VOC emissions. The VOC/NOx ratios correlate with maximum 1-hr O3 concentrations in Chicago, a response consistent with a VOC-sensitive airshed. A weak correlation between O3 concentrations and VOC/NOx ratios in Philadelphia suggests the impact of transported O3, which is formed in upwind VOC-sensitive locations that may be hundreds of kilometers away. Ozone concentrations in Atlanta do not correlate with VOC/NOx ratios but with concentrations of NOx and total reactive nitrogen (NOy) carried over from the previous day. When data from 1986-1990 and 1995-1999 are compared, only small differences in the weekly behavior of O3 are observed in Chicago and Philadelphia. The day-of-week differences in O3 are amplified in the more recent period in Atlanta, a possible result of urban growth.