Eight-Hour Ozone Trends at Sites in Lake Michigan Ozone Nonattainment Areas

ABSTRACT

Temperature-adjusted trends in 1-hr and 8-hr ozone averages were calculated for ten sites near Lake Michigan for 1980-1995. Results show that ozone trends declined similarly according to both metrics for sites on the west side of the lake. This suggests that the factors underlying the trends were similar. These factors include, among others, ozone control programs designed to address the 1-hr standard. Thus, these control programs may have been similarly effective in moving these sites toward compliance with the 8-hr standard.     

Comment on Long Term Ozone Trends

Under Title III of SARA, companies must provide information about chemicals that they manufacture, store, or process. Communities will use data about potential accidental releases to develop local emergency plans. Data about routine chemical releases will be made available to the public on a computer data base. Simply having such data available does not ensure consensus about reducing potential chemical risks. Laboratory and field research are summarized, indicating that people tend to edit small risks to zero as being too small to worry about, or to adjust them imperfectly from an anchor equal to the potential loss. These results suggest recommendations for communicating about the risks posed by accidental or routine releases of chemicals.     

Meteorological Factors of Ozone Predictability at Houston,Texas

ABSTRACT

Several ozone modeling approaches were investigated to determine if uncertainties in the meteorological data would be sufficiently large to limit the application of physically realistic ozone (O₃) forecast models. Three diagnostic schemes were evaluated for the period of May through September 1997 for Houston, TX. Correlations between measured daily maximum and model calculated O₃ air concentrations were found to be 0.70 using a linear regression model, 0.65 using a non-advective box model, and 0.49 using a three-dimensional (3-D) transport and dispersion model. Although the regression model had the highest correlation, it showed substantial underestimates of the highest concentrations. The box model results were the most similar to the regression model and did not show as much underestimation. The more complex 3-D modeling approach yielded the worst results, likely resulting from O₃ maxima that were driven by local factors rather than by the transport of pollutants from outside of the Houston domain. The highest O₃ concentrations at Houston were associated with light winds and meandering trajectories. A comparison of the gridded meteorological data used by the 3-D model to the observations showed that the wind direction and speed values at Houston differed most on those days on which the O₃ underestima-tions were the greatest. These periods also tended to correspond with poor precipitation and temperature estimates. It is concluded that better results are not just obtained through additional modeling complexity, but there needs to be a comparable increase in the accuracy of the meteorological data.     

Statistical Assumptions Matter in Data Analysis for Texas Ozone Nonattainment Sites

Strategies for control of ozone aim at regulation of its chemical precursors, non-methane organic compounds (NMOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). It is therefore important to analyze how these precursors vary temporally and geographically. This study finds significant and important differences among four Texas ozone nonattainment sites, Dallas, Ft. Worth, El Paso, and Houston, for 1984, 1985, and 1986 for NMOC, NOx, and their ratio NNR. These differences were detected through nonparametric analysis of variance and Student-New-man-Keuls’s test for multiple comparisons on rank-transformed data. A noteworthy feature of the data analysis is its attention to the assumptions underlying the statistical methods. Classical models based on normal or lognormal theory had to be abandoned for lack of realism. It is demonstrated how alternative models may be applied to yield appropriate, rather than inappropriate, conclusions.     

Statistical Analysis of Trends in Urban Ozone Air Quality

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of some statistical methods for examining trends in ambient ozone air quality downwind of major urban areas. To this end, daily maximum 1 -hr ozone concentrations measured over New Jersey, metropolitan New York City and Connecticut for the period 1980 to 1989 were assembled and analyzed. This paper discusses the application of the bootstrap method, extreme value statistics and a nonparametric test for evaluating trends in urban ozone air quality. The results indicate that although there is an improvement in ozone air quality downwind of New York City, there has been little change in ozone levels upwind of New York City during this ten-year period.     

Artificial Neural Network-Derived Trends in Daily Maximum Surface Ozone Concentrations

ABSTRACT

Interannual variability in meteorological conditions can confound attempts to identify changes in ozone concentrations driven by reduced precursor emissions. In this paper, a technique is described that attempts to maximize the removal of meteorological variability from a daily maximum ozone time series, thereby revealing longer term changes in ozone concentrations with increased confidence. The technique employs artificial neural network [multilayer perceptron (MLP)] models, and is shown to remove more of the meteorological variability from U.S. ozone data than does a Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter and conventional regression-based technique.     

Trends in fine particle concentration and chemical composition in southern California

Airborne fine particle mass concentrations in Southern California have declined in recent years. Trends in sulfate and elemental carbon (EC) particle concentrations over the period 1982-1993 are consistent with this overall improvement in air quality and help to confirm some of the reasons for the changes that are seen. Fine particle sulfate concentrations have declined as a strict sulfur oxides (SOx) emission control program adopted in 1978 was implemented over time. Fine particle elemental (black) carbon concentrations have declined over a period when newer diesel engines and improved diesel fuels have been introduced into the vehicle fleet. Organic aerosol concentrations have not declined as rapidly as the EC particle concentrations, despite the fact that catalyst-equipped cars having lower particle emission rates were introduced into the vehicle fleet alongside the diesel engine improvements mentioned above. This situation is consistent with the growth in population and vehicle miles traveled in the air basin over time. Fine particle ammonium nitrate in the Los Angeles area atmosphere contributes more than half of the fine aerosol mass concentration on the highest concentration days of the year, emphasizing both the need for accurate aerosol nitrate measurements and the likely importance of deliberate control of aerosol nitrate as a part of any serious further fine particle control program for the Los Angeles area.     

Parameter Evaluation and Model Validation of Ozone Exposure Assessment Using Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study Data

Abstract

To examine factors influencing long‐term ozone (O₃) exposures by children living in urban communities, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on personal, indoor, and outdoor O₃ concentrations, as well as related housing and other questionnaire information collected in the one‐year‐long Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study. Of 224 children contained in the original data set, 160 children were found to have longitudinal measurements of O₃ concentrations in at least six months of 12 months of the study period. Data for these children were randomly split into two equal sets: one for model development and the other for model validation. Mixed models with various variance‐covariance structures were developed to evaluate statistically important predictors for chronic personal ozone exposures. Model predictions were then validated against the field measurements using an empirical best‐linear unbiased prediction technique.The results of model fitting showed that the most important predictors for personal ozone exposure include indoor O₃ concentration, central ambient O₃ concentration, outdoor O₃ concentration, season, gender, outdoor time, house fan usage, and the presence of a gas range in the house. Hierarchical models of personal O₃ concentrations indicate the following levels of explanatory power for each of the predictive models: indoor and outdoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central and indoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, indoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, and questionnaire data alone on time activity and housing characteristics. These results provide important information on key predictors of chronic human exposures to ambient O₃ for children and offer insights into how to reliably and cost‐effectively predict personal O₃ exposures in the future. Furthermore, the techniques and findings derived from this study also have strong implications for selecting the most reliable and cost‐effective exposure study design and modeling approaches for other ambient pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and selected urban air toxics.     

California Statewide Assessment of the Effects of Ozone on Crop Productivity

Six properties appear desirable for any set of ozone attainment criteria: (1) sufficient stringency to protect public health, (2) simplicity and understandability, (3) sensitivity to real changes in air quality, (4) stability against meteorological fluctuations, (5) use of as much data as possible, and (6) equivalence between the stringency the criteria appear to mandate, and what they actually mandate. We consider how the federal attainment criteria might be improved with respect to Properties 4 through 6 while being equally strong on 1 through 3. Whether the federal standard meets Property 1 has been the subject of debate, but our analysis would apply also to a modified standard. We show that there are subtleties in how improvements might be made. In particular, basing the attainment status on a statistic with low variance may not lead to a more stable criterion, and although it is easy to find a criterion that makes it hard for a district with bad air to reach attainment, or a district with good air to get out of attainment, it is hard to find a criterion that does both. This suggests using different criteria for districts that are out of attainment from districts that are in attainment. Initially the burden of proof would be on the district to prove that its air is of attainment quality. However, once the district has achieved attainment the burden of proof would shift; the district would remain in attainment unless there was strong evidence to the contrary. An evaluation of a set of criteria based on this idea showed improvements over the federal criteria with respect to the last three desirable properties-stability, use of data, and equivalent stringency-with some sacrifice in simplicity and sensitivity.     

MTBE in California Drinking Water: An Analysis of Patterns and Trends

Over the past decade, there has been much publicity surrounding the impact of Methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE) on drinking water supplies in the United States. In California, the presence of MTBE in groundwater and drinking water has led to a ban on the future use of MTBE in gasoline. Other states, such as those in the northeast, are also seeking ways to reduce or eliminate the use of MTBE due to perceived threats to the environment and public health. Despite claims about the incidence of MTBE in drinking water, no comprehensive characterization has been conducted on the available drinking water monitoring data. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the MTBE drinking water data compiled by the California Department of Health Services (CDHS) from 1995 to 2000. We find that MTBE was detected in about 1.3% of all drinking water samples, 2.5% of drinking water sources, and 3.7% of drinking water systems in California over this 6-year period. Our analysis reveals that many drinking water sources are not sampled routinely for MTBE, and in those sources that appear to be affected by MTBE, the compound is not consistently detected. The majority of MTBE detections are also concentrated in several geographic areas, which contain about 9-21% of the total California population. Average detected MTBE concentrations have decreased significantly since 1995 and 1996, ranging from 5 to 15 ppb over the last 3 years depending on the outcome of interest. Of the samples in which MTBE was present above the analytical detection limit, the concentrations in approximately 73% of drinking water samples and 86% of drinking water sources and systems were below the State's primary health-based standard of 13 ppb. Our findings suggest that, although some drinking water supplies in California have been affected by MTBE, the majority of drinking water sources and systems either have not been affected at all or contain MTBE at concentrations below levels that are likely to be of health concern.     

MTBE in California Drinking Water: An Analysis of Patterns and Trends

Over the past decade, there has been much publicity surrounding the impact of Methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE) on drinking water supplies in the United States. In California, the presence of MTBE in groundwater and drinking water has led to a ban on the future use of MTBE in gasoline. Other states, such as those in the northeast, are also seeking ways to reduce or eliminate the use of MTBE due to perceived threats to the environment and public health. Despite claims about the incidence of MTBE in drinking water, no comprehensive characterization has been conducted on the available drinking water monitoring data. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the MTBE drinking water data compiled by the California Department of Health Services (CDHS) from 1995 to 2000. We find that MTBE was detected in about 1.3% of all drinking water samples, 2.5% of drinking water sources, and 3.7% of drinking water systems in California over this 6-year period. Our analysis reveals that many drinking water sources are not sampled routinely for MTBE, and in those sources that appear to be affected by MTBE, the compound is not consistently detected. The majority of MTBE detections are also concentrated in several geographic areas, which contain about 9–21% of the total California population. Average detected MTBE concentrations have decreased significantly since 1995 and 1996, ranging from 5 to 15 ppb over the last 3 years depending on the outcome of interest. Of the samples in which MTBE was present above the analytical detection limit, the concentrations in approximately 73% of drinking water samples and 86% of drinking water sources and systems were below the State's primary health-based standard of 13 ppb. Our findings suggest that, although some drinking water supplies in California have been affected by MTBE, the majority of drinking water sources and systems either have not been affected at all or contain MTBE at concentrations below levels that are likely to be of health concern.     

Ozone distribution and phytotoxic potential in mixed conifer forests of the San Bernardino Mountains, southern California

In the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, ozone (O(3)) concentrations have been elevated since the 1950s with peaks reaching 600ppb and summer seasonal averages >100ppb in the 1970s. During that period increased mortality of ponderosa and Jeffrey pines occurred. Between the late 1970s and late1990s, O(3) concentrations decreased with peaks approximately 180ppb and approximately 60ppb seasonal averages. However, since the late 1990s concentrations have not changed. Monitoring during summers of 2002-2006 showed that O(3) concentrations (2-week averages) for individual years were much higher in western sites (58-69ppb) than eastern sites (44-50ppb). Potential O(3) phytotoxicity measured as various exposure indices was very high, reaching SUM00 - 173.5ppmh, SUM60 - 112.7ppmh, W126 - 98.3ppmh, and AOT40 - 75ppmh, representing the highest values reported for mountain areas in North America and Europe.     

Ground-Level Ozone in Eastern Canada: Seasonal Variations,Trends, and Occurrences of High Concentrations

Over the past few years, concern has increased in Canada over the health and environmental impacts of elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone. During the summer the most populated regions of Canada frequently record ozone concentrations that exceed the one-hour average maximum acceptable air quality objective of 32 parts per billion (ppb). In 1988 the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment agreed to develop a federal/provincial management plan to control nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emissions to reduce ozone concentrations in all affected regions of the country. In addition to the proposed interim control measures, the plan recommended that studies be undertaken to acquire the information necessary to develop sound control strategies. This report represents one of those studies and provides a summary of ground-level ozone measurements for eastern Canada for the 1980 to 1991 period with an emphasis on seasonal variations, trends, and occurrences of high concentrations.

Southwestern Ontario experiences the highest maximum hourly ozone concentrations and the greatest frequency of hours greater than the 82 ppb acceptable objective. Urban sites have the highest frequencies of ozone concentration measurements in the < 10 ppb range, while rural and remote sites show peaks in frequency distribution in the 20 to 30 ppb range. Trend analysis of summertime (May to September) average daily maximum ozone concentration showed no consistent pattern for eastern Canadian sites during 1980 to 1991. Sites in Montreal showed statistically insignificant downward trends while sites in Toronto showed small but statistically significant upward trends. These ozone-increasing trends are associated with reductions in nitric oxide concentrations. At all sites there was large year-to-year variability in peak ozone levels and in the frequency of hours with ozone concentrations above the maximum acceptable objective.     

Variability in ultraviolet total optical depth during the Southern California Ozone Study (SCOS97)

Formation of photochemical air pollution is governed in part by the solar ultraviolet actinic radiation flux, but wavelength-resolved measurements of UV radiation in polluted urban atmospheres are rarely available. As part of the 1997 Southern California Ozone Study, cosine weighted solar irradiance was measured continuously at seven UV wavelengths (300, 306, 312, 318, 326, 333 and 368 nm) at two sites during the period 1 July to 1 November 1997. The first site was at Riverside (260 m a.s.l.) in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, which frequently experiences severe air pollution episodes. The second site was at Mt Wilson (1725 m a.s.l.), approximately 70 km northwest of Riverside, and located above much of the urban haze layer. Measurements of direct (i.e., total minus diffuse) solar irradiance were used to compute total atmospheric optical depths. At 300 nm, optical depths (mean±1 S.D.) measured over the entire study period were 4.3±0.3 at Riverside and 3.7±0.2 at Mt Wilson. Optical depth decreased with increasing wavelength, falling at 368 nm to values of 0.8±0.2 at Riverside and 0.5±0.1 at Mt Wilson. At all wavelengths, both the mean and the relative standard deviation of optical depths were larger at Riverside than at Mt Wilson. At 300 nm, the difference between the smallest and largest observed optical depths corresponds to over a factor 2 increase in the direct beam irradiance for overhead sun, and over a factor 7 increase for a solar zenith angle of 60°. Principal component analysis was used to reveal underlying factors contributing to variability in optical depths. PCA showed that a single factor (component) was responsible for the major part of the variability. At Riverside, the first component was responsible for 97% of the variability and the second component for 2%. At Mt Wilson, 89% of the variability could be attributed to the first component and 10% to the second. Dependence of the component contributions on wavelength allowed identification of probable physical causes: the first component is linked to light scattering and absorption by atmospheric aerosols, and the second component is linked to light absorption by ozone. These factors are expected to contribute to temporal and spatial variability in solar actinic flux and photodissociation rates of species including ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and formaldehyde.     

Weekday vs. Weekend Ambient Ozone Concentrations: Discussion and Hypotheses with Focus on Northern California

Abstract

Since the early 1970s, researchers and data analysts have reported differences between weekday and weekend ozone concentrations, with higher ozone concentrations occurring on Sundays in some locations. At that time, the phenomenon was referred to as the “Sunday effect.” In the late 1980s, additional papers focused on weekday/weekend differences in air quality in the South Coast (Los Angeles) Air Basin.

Analyses of ozone concentrations measured at a number of locations in northern California reveal that average ozone concentrations are frequently higher on weekends than on weekdays. Violations of the California 0.09 ppm 1-hour air quality standard for ozone also occur in disproportionately greater frequency on weekends. We hypothesize that this phenomenon is based largely on the differences between weekday and weekend emission patterns. We believe that the observed differences may provide information regarding which pollutant reduction strategy, NO_x or ROG control, may be more effective in reducing ambient ozone concentrations. For the northern California region, the presence of higher weekend ozone concentrations suggests the need for ROG control is greater than for NO_x control. If both NO_x and ROG are to be controlled, it is important to understand the interdependence of the two pollutants in forming ozone. With the current uncertainty and debate regarding official vehicular emission inventories, this phenomenon emphasizes the importance of using observation-based data to examine ambient pollution and emission relationships. This natural experiment of varying emissions provides an interesting test case for sophisticated air pollution model performance and evaluation.

Using a Bay Area emission inventory and an estimate of its change from weekday to weekend, combined with a generic Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) diagram, we demonstrate the weekend effect. In addition, changes in the Bay Area emission inventory from 1980 to 1990, when combined with the EKMA diagram, also show why the weekend effect is more evident in the 1990s.

It is our hypothesis that the presence of the weekend effect, positive or negative, combined with changes in emission changes, provides a simple clue to whether an area is NO_xor ROG limited with respect to ozone formation.     

Emission Reductions Needed to Meet the Standard for Ozone in Southern California: Effect of Boundary Conditions

Abstract

Combinations of total reactive organic gas (ROG) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions that do not exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone for the meteorological conditions of the August 26-28, 1987 SCAQS episode, have been determined using the California Institute of Technology (CIT) photochemical air quality model. The sensitivity of these combinations to pollutant boundary conditions is examined.     

Future Impacts of Distributed Power Generation on Ambient Ozone and Particulate Matter Concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley of California

ABSTRACT

Distributed power generation—electricity generation that is produced by many small stationary power generators distributed throughout an urban air basin—has the potential to supply a significant portion of electricity in future years. As a result, distributed generation may lead to increased pollutant emissions within an urban air basin, which could adversely affect air quality. However, the use of combined heating and power with distributed generation may reduce the energy consumption for space heating and air conditioning, resulting in a net decrease of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. This work used a systematic approach based on land-use geographical information system data to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of distributed generation emissions in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin of California and simulated the potential air quality impacts using state-of-the-art three-dimensional computer models. The evaluation of the potential market penetration of distributed generation focuses on the year 2023. In general, the air quality impacts of distributed generation were found to be small due to the restrictive 2007 California Air Resources Board air emission standards applied to all distributed generation units and due to the use of combined heating and power. Results suggest that if distributed generation units were allowed to emit at the current Best Available Control Technology standards (which are less restrictive than the 2007 California Air Resources Board standards), air quality impacts of distributed generation could compromise compliance with the federal 8-hr average ozone standard in the region.

IMPLICATIONS The San Joaquin Valley is a fast growing region that demands increasing power generation to sustain the economic development, and at the same time it is one of the worst polluted areas in the United States. Hence, the region demands alternatives that minimize the air quality impacts of power generation. This paper addresses the air quality impacts of distributed generation of power, an alternative to central power generation that can potentially reduce greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions throughout the United States.     

Ozone, nitric acid, and ammonia air pollution is unhealthy for people and ecosystems in southern Sierra Nevada, California

Two-week average concentrations of ozone (O₃), nitric acid vapor (HNO₃) and ammonia (NH₃) were measured with passive samplers during the 2002 summer season across the central Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, along the San Joaquin River drainage. Elevated concentrations of the pollutants were determined with seasonal means for individual sites ranging between 62 and 88 ppb for O₃, 1.0-3.8 μg m⁻³ for HNO₃, and 2.6-5.2 μg m⁻³ for NH₃. Calculated O₃ exposure indices were very high, reaching SUM00-191 ppm h, SUM60-151 ppm h, and W126-124 ppm h. Calculated nitrogen (N) dry deposition ranged from 1.4 to 15 kg N ha⁻¹ for maximum values, and 0.4-8 kg N ha⁻¹ for minimum values; potentially exceeding Critical Loads (CL) for nutritional N. The U.S., California, and European 8 h O₃ human health standards were exceeded during 104, 108, and 114 days respectively, indicating high risk to humans from ambient O₃.     

Parameter evaluation and model validation of ozone exposure assessment using Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study data

To examine factors influencing long-term ozone (O3) exposures by children living in urban communities, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on personal, indoor, and outdoor O3 concentrations, as well as related housing and other questionnaire information collected in the one-year-long Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study. Of 224 children contained in the original data set, 160 children were found to have longitudinal measurements of O3 concentrations in at least six months of 12 months of the study period. Data for these children were randomly split into two equal sets: one for model development and the other for model validation. Mixed models with various variance-covariance structures were developed to evaluate statistically important predictors for chronic personal ozone exposures. Model predictions were then validated against the field measurements using an empirical best-linear unbiased prediction technique. The results of model fitting showed that the most important predictors for personal ozone exposure include indoor O3 concentration, central ambient O3 concentration, outdoor O3 concentration, season, gender, outdoor time, house fan usage, and the presence of a gas range in the house. Hierarchical models of personal O3 concentrations indicate the following levels of explanatory power for each of the predictive models: indoor and outdoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central and indoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, indoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, and questionnaire data alone on time activity and housing characteristics. These results provide important information on key predictors of chronic human exposures to ambient O3 for children and offer insights into how to reliably and cost-effectively predict personal O3 exposures in the future. Furthermore, the techniques and findings derived from this study also have strong implications for selecting the most reliable and cost-effective exposure study design and modeling approaches for other ambient pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and selected urban air toxics.     

Characterization and Identification of Trends in Average Ambient Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Levels through Trajectory Cluster Analysis in Eastern Canada

Abstract

In many locations in Eastern Canada, ambient levels of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and surface ozone (O₃) depend on airflow direction and synoptic scale meteorological conditions. In this study, a cluster analysis was performed on 10 yr (1994 –2003) of back-trajectory data for 11 locations in Eastern Canada, resulting in the identification of 10 unique back-trajectory clusters (or airflows) for each location. The airflows were then used to characterize and identify spatial and temporal trends in the daily maximum 8-hr average O₃ (dmax 8-hr O₃) and the daily average PM_2.5 levels. Results showed that airflows from the southwest passing over Michigan and Southern Ontario were associated, on average, with the highest O₃ levels at most locations in Eastern Canada.For PM_2.5, the highest levels occurred with airflows from the Eastern Ohio River Valley. At major urban locations in Ontario and Quebec, the warm season mean (May to September) dmax 8-hr O₃ and the annual mean PM_2.5 were, on average, 12 parts per billion and 7.6 μg/m³ higher, respectively, than airflows from the north. Elevated levels of O₃ and PM_2.5 also occurred under light airflows, and, on average, the levels under light airflows were higher than their nonlight counterparts. At several locations in Canada, including Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Kejimkujik, the annual warm season mean dmax 8-hr O₃ experienced a statistically significant (95% confidence) increasing trend over the 10-yr period. When airflow direction was considered, a number of locations experienced statistically significant upward trends in O₃ for airflow from the north and northwest. Several locations also showed significant upward trends associated with airflow from the southwest passing over Michigan and Southwestern Ontario. Although there are no statistically significant downward trends, airflows from the southwest have shown a reduction in O₃ levels in Southwestern Ontario in more recent years.