Comparison of the industrial source complex and AERMOD dispersion models: case study for human health risk assessment

Air quality models are typically used to predict the fate and transport of air emissions from industrial sources to comply with federal and state regulatory requirements and environmental standards, as well as to determine pollution control requirements. For many years, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) widely used the Industrial Source Complex (ISC) model because of its broad applicability to multiple source types. Recently, EPA adopted a new rule that replaces ISC with AERMOD, a state-of-the-practice air dispersion model, in many air quality impact assessments. This study compared the two models as well as their enhanced versions that incorporate the Plume Rise Model Enhancements (PRIME) algorithm. PRIME takes into account the effects of building downwash on plume dispersion. The comparison used actual point, area, and volume sources located on two separate facilities in conjunction with site-specific terrain and meteorological data. The modeled maximum total period average ground-level air concentrations were used to calculate potential health effects for human receptors. The results show that the switch from ISC to AERMOD and the incorporation of the PRIME algorithm tend to generate lower concentration estimates at the point of maximum ground-level concentration. However, the magnitude of difference varies from insignificant to significant depending on the types of the sources and the site-specific conditions. The differences in human health effects, predicted using results from the two models, mirror the concentrations predicted by the models.     

A complex terrain dispersion model for regulatory applications at the Westvaco luke mill

A data set for studying transport and dispersion in complex terrain was collected at the Westvaco Corporation's Luke Mill, located in the Potomac River valley in western Maryland. Meteorological analyses indicate very strong channeling of winds and the presence of strong inversions and wind shears in a shallow layer at the height of the surrounding mountaintops (300 m above the valley floor). Wind velocities observed near the valley floor are unrepresentative of wind velocities at plume height. Observed turbulence intensities at plume height are about twice as large as those observed over flat terrain. Standard stability classification schemes generally underestimate plume dispersion at this site. When high 3-h and 24-h average SO₂ concentrations are observed, winds are usually light and an inversion is present. These instances of relatively high concentrations are often associated with periods when the wind shifts direction 180° from up-valley to down-valley or vice versa, and the nearly stagnant polluted air mass blows against the mountainsides.A dispersion model was developed that is Gaussian in form but uses observed meteorological data to the maximum extent possible. For example, observed turbulence intensities at plume height are used to estimate dispersion. Plume impaction on terrain is calculated if the plume height is below a critical height dependent on the Hill Froude number. Evaluation of the model with the full 2-y data set shows that it can estimate the second highest 3-h and 24-h average concentrations (of regulatory significance) with a mean bias of less than 7%.     

Development of a livestock odor dispersion model: part I. Model theory and development

A livestock odor dispersion model (LODM) was developed to predict mean odor concentration, odor frequency, instantaneous odor concentration, and peak odor concentration from livestock operations. This model is based on the Gaussian fluctuating plume model and has the ability to consider the instantaneous concentration fluctuations and the differences between odor and traditional air pollutants. It can predict odor frequency from the routine hourly meteorological data input and deal with different types of sources and multiple sources. Also, the relationship between odor intensity and odor concentration was incorporated into the model.     

Relevance of mixed layer scaling for daytime dispersion based on raps and other field programs

A brief review and assessment of field measurement programs that provide data for mixed layer diffusion research is presented. The majority of programs emphasize either the meteorological aspects of the mixed layer or plume characterization. Few programs are available that provide the complimentary blend of plume and appropriate meteorological measurements needed to adequately validate mixed layer diffusion theory. Three major U.S. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) field programs that provide databases for model development and validation of mixed layer diffusion processes are described and discussed in more detail. The Regional Air Pollution Study (RAPS) focused on measurements of surface and mixed layer turbulent transport processes in the urban environment. The Tennessee Plume Study (TPS) obtained a database with coincident measurement of boundary layer turbulent structure and plume dispersion for a large coal-fired power plant in nonuniform terrain over the diurnal cycle. The North East Regional Oxidant Study (NEROS) obtained data on transport and dispersion of regional air mass along with supporting documentation on the spatial variations of mixed layer depths, vertical turbulent transport processes, cloud fluxes, energy budget and synoptic conditions. A design feature common throughout these experimental programs, but primarily in the RAPS and TPS, was the provision to study significant land-use scale variations and processes which influence the diffusion process. Current similarity predictions of the relevant turbulent parameters are assessed in this context. Additionally, the role of convective clouds rooted within the mixed layer in pollution dispersion as a consequence of mixed layer processes is briefly described.     

Air pollution in the Krusne Hory region,Czech Republic during the 1990s

Emissions from the Black Triangle Region were considered to be the major source of air pollution problems in Europe during the 1990s. This discussion reviews the changes in emissions and pollution concentrations in the Krusne Hory Region (Czech Republic) in the winter half of the year during most of the past decade, and describes the relationships with meteorology. Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) is used as the example pollutant. The results show a decrease in pollution concentrations since 1996, as air pollution control and management strategies for important point sources take effect. The winter of 1995–1996 was especially harsh in the number of pollution episodes. Correlations between SO₂ and meteorological parameters are inconsistent. Wind direction provides the best relationship at monitoring stations along the Krusne Hory Plateau, with wind speed and temperature more variable depending on month and location. For the valley stations, higher SO₂ concentrations are strongly related to colder temperatures, higher relative humidities, and lower wind speeds. A case study during the winter of 1995–1996 (November 9–15) illustrated the importance of synoptic high pressure and a low-level inversion in minimizing plume dispersion from point sources. Specific sources of SO₂ affecting each station could thus be identified.     

Observations and model simulations of carbon monoxide emission factors from a California highway

A series of twelve intensively monitored 1-hr CO dispersion studies were conducted near Davis, CA, in winter 1996. The experimental equipment included twelve CO sampling ports at elevations up to 50 m, three sonic anemometers, a tethersonde station, aircraft measurements of wind and temperature profile aloft, and a variety of conventional meteorological equipment. The study was designed to explore the role of vehicular exhaust buoyancy during worst-case meteorological conditions, such as low winds oriented in near-parallel alignment with the road during a surface-based nocturnal inversion. From the study, field estimates of the CO emission factor (EF) from a California vehicle fleet were computed using two different methods. The analysis suggests that the CT-EMFAC/EMFAC (EMission FACtor) models currently used to conduct federal conformity modeling significantly overpredict CO emissions for high-speed, free-flowing traffic on California highways.     

Observations and Model Simulations of Carbon Monoxide Emission Factors from a California Highway

ABSTRACT

A series of twelve intensively monitored 1-hr CO dispersion studies were conducted near Davis, CA, in winter 1996. The experimental equipment included twelve CO sampling ports at elevations up to 50 m, three sonic anemometers, a tethersonde station, aircraft measurements of wind and temperature profile aloft, and a variety of conventional meteorological equipment. The study was designed to explore the role of vehicular exhaust buoyancy during worst-case meteorological conditions, such as low winds oriented in near-parallel alignment with the road during a surface-based nocturnal inversion. From the study, field estimates of the CO emission factor (EF) from a California vehicle fleet were computed using two different methods. The analysis suggests that the CT-EMFAC/ EMFAC (EMission FACtor) models currently used to conduct federal conformity modeling significantly overpredict CO emissions for high-speed, free-flowing traffic on California highways.     

Modeling Short Range Air Dispersion from Area Sources of Non-buoyant Toxics

A model based on K-theory has been developed for describing the short range air dispersion from area sources of non-buoyant toxics. Model parameter estimation is via boundary layer theory. Lateral dispersion by plume meander is considered but ail other sources of horizontal dispersion are neglected. The model can be applied on and near area sources and it can be adapted for predictions of downwind concentrations with a wide variety of meteorological Inputs.

The model has been evaluated by simulating the data obtained during atmospheric tracer studies and by comparison to vinyl chloride concentrations near the BKK landfill in southern California. The model appears to represent a useful and accurate tool for regulatory planning and risk assessment close to area sources of toxics.     

Urban tracer dispersion experiments during the second DAPPLE field campaign in London 2004

As part of the DAPPLE programme two large scale urban tracer experiments using multiple simultaneous releases of cyclic perfluoroalkanes from fixed location point sources was performed. The receptor concentrations along with relevant meteorological parameters measured are compared with a three screening dispersion models in order to best predict the decay of pollution sources with respect to distance. It is shown here that the simple dispersion models tested here can provide a reasonable upper bound estimate of the maximum concentrations measured with an empirical model derived from field observations and wind tunnel studies providing the best estimate. An indoor receptor was also used to assess indoor concentrations and their pertinence to commonly used evacuation procedures.     

The Transport of Suspended Particulates as a Function of Wind Direction and Atmospheric Conditions

Linear regression of high volume air sampler data and various meteorological parameters was used to determine a suspended particulate air pollution climatology for Albany, NY. A new method for exhibiting associations between wind direction and pollutant levels using correlation coefficients is presented. Correlations between wind direction distribution frequency and other meteorological parameters is employed to help explain differences in correlations for direction with suspended particulate levels. Results show that high particulate concentrations correlate well with southerly wind flow throughout the study area, regardless of relative location of receptor to local sources. This suggests that ambient background concentrations inherent in different air masses more consistently affected suspended particulate levels than did the diffusion from local sources during the study period. Maximum particulate advection occurs under conditions of good mixing of the boundary layer and moderate wind speeds and is enhanced further in the absence of removal processes such as rainout and washout. Trajectory analysis of selected days indicates a definite relationship between path and origin of the wind flow and regional average particulate concentration.     

Urban Development in Air Pollution Basins: An Appeal to the Planners for Help

The air basin between the Mississippi River and the bluff in Illinois is of particular interest for this report. The autumnal temperature profiles were measured by a wiresonde. Each day through September and October had an inversion at dawn and/or dusk. During the entire three months, inversions 5° or more occurred at dawn 64% of the mornings, those 10° or more occurred 45% of the mornings; and those 15° occurred 23% of the mornings. Under intense inversions, the topography holds cool air in the basin like water in a saucer, and currents within this 200-ft air layer comprise a quasi-closed circulation system. A frequent pattern of air circulation involves a northwestward surface drift in the basin, with a southwest wind aloft and an updraft over St. Louis. This forms a horizontal semi-vortex along the river, concentrating the heavier particulates near East St. Louis and Granite City. Multiple evidence showed this pattern to exist one morning among four. Business interests would use the basin for industrial expansion, but air resource planners prefer to keep new air pollution sources out of this low land.     

Modeling Emissions from Elevated Cylindrical Bins

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how wind tunnel modeling data that accurately describe plume characteristics near an unconventional emission source can be used to improve the near-field downwind plume profiles predicted by conventional air pollution dispersion models. The study considers a vertical, cylindrical-shaped, elevated bin similar to large product storage bins that can be found at many industrial plant sites. Two dispersion models are considered: the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ISC2(ST) model and the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Energy's GAS model. The wind tunnel study showed that plume behavior was contrary to what was predicted using conventional dispersion models such as ISC2(ST) and GAS and default values of input parameters. The wind tunnel data were used to develop a protocol for correcting the dispersion models inputs, resulting in a substantial improvement in the accuracy of the dispersion estimates.     

Validation of ADMS against wind tunnel data of dispersion from chemical warehouse fires

Comparisons are presented of the predictions of the atmospheric dispersion modelling system (ADMS) and wind tunnel data for plume dispersion from chemical warehouse fires. The focus of the comparisons is dispersion from structurally intact buildings with open roofs and dispersion of plumes flush with the ground without obstacles, however, dispersion from building shells and doors is also considered. Both buoyancy driven and momentum driven flows are treated, although emphasis is on buoyancy driven flows as these are generally more likely to occur in warehouse fires. The study shows that the ADMS building module is able to reproduce many of the features of dispersion observed in the wind tunnel. These include a recirculating region behind the building in which material may be trapped, a main wake which brings material down towards the surface, and appropriate sensitivity to the buoyancy and momentum of the emitted material, and the location of sources on the building roof. The comparisons suggest that the ADMS building model can be used to predict dispersion from the stages of fire development studied. The precise level of agreement depends (but not in a systematic way) on the buoyancy flux parameter F_B, the momentum flux parameter F_M and the number of roof lights. There are some significant differences between the wind tunnel boundary layer and the simulated atmospheric boundary layer in ADMS which have to be considered when making wind tunnel model comparisons. These relate mainly to the near surface where the wind tunnel underestimates turbulent velocities, the boundary layer height which in the wind tunnel corresponds to an atmospheric boundary layer depth of 82.5 m (atmospheric boundary layers are frequently an order of magnitude deeper), and the boundary layer top where the ADMS boundary layer is capped by an inversion and has low turbulence levels whereas the wind tunnel boundary layer has higher levels of turbulence and no capping inversion.     

An Efficient Gaussian-Plume Multiple-Source Air Quality Algorithm

The information presented in this paper is directed to air pollution scientists with an interest in applying air quality simulation models. RAM is the three letter designation for this efficient Gaussian-plume multiple-source air quality algorithm. RAM is a method of estimating short-term dispersion using the Gaussian steady-state model. This algorithm can be used for estimating air quality concentrations of relatively stable pollutants for averaging times from an hour to a day in urban areas from point and area sources. The algorithm is applicable for locations with level or gently rolling terrain where a single wind vector for each hour is a good approximation to the flow over the source area considered. Calculations are performed for each hour. Hourly meteorological data required are wind direction, wind speed, stability class, and mixing height. Emission information required of point sources consists of source coordinates, emission rate, physical height, stack gas volume flow and stack gas temperature. Emission information required of area sources consists of south-west corner coordinates, source area, total area emission rate and effective area source height. Computation time is kept to a minimum by the manner in which concentrations from area sources are estimated using a narrow plume hypothesis and using the area source squares as given rather than breaking down all sources to an area of uniform elements. Options are available to the user to allow use of three different types of receptor locations: 1 ) those whose coordinates are input by the user, 2) those whose coordinates are determined by thé model and are downwind óf significant point and area sources where maxima are likely to occur, and 3) those whose coordinates are determined by the model to give good area coverage of a specific portion of the region. Computation time is also decreased by keeping the number of receptors to a minimum.     

A trajectory plume model for simulating air pollution transients

An air quality simulation model that is simple, yet capable of accurately estimating concentrations under unsteady meteorological conditions, has been developed. This trajectory plume model uses the Gaussian plume equation, but has an applicability that is approximately as wide as the Lagrangian puff model. The plume axis is represented by a series of straight-line plume segments. The performance of this model was evaluated by comparing it with other diffusion models. A comparison between simulation results using the present model and those using integrated puff and Eulerian diffusion models for three different metropolitan areas (one in Japan and two in the U.S.) has indicated that a simple trajectory plume model performs as well as the two other more complex models in simulating pollutant dispersion under complicated meteorological conditions such as those which occur during the transition period from a sea breeze to a land breeze.     

Urban air pollution modelling and measurements of boundary layer height

An urban field trial has been undertaken with the aim of assessing the performance of the boundary layer height (BLH) determination of two models: the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and a Gaussian-type plume model, ADMS. Pulsed Doppler lidar data were used to measure mixing layer height and cloud base heights for a variety of meteorological conditions over a 3 week period in July 2003. In this work, the daily growth and decay of the BLH from the lidar data and model simulations for 5 days are compared. The results show that although the UM can do a good job of reproducing the boundary layer growth, there are occasions where the BLH is overestimated by 30–100%. Within dispersion models it is the BLH that effectively limits the height to which pollution disperses, so these results have very important implications for pollution dispersion modelling. The results show that correct development of the boundary layer in the UM is critically dependant on morning cloud cover. The ADMS model is used routinely by local authorities in the UK for local air-quality forecasting. The ADMS model was run under three settings; an ‘urban’ roughness, a ‘rural’ roughness and a ‘transition’ roughness. In all cases, the ‘urban’ setting over estimated the BLH and is clearly a poor predictor of urban BLH. The ‘transition’ setting, which distinguishes between the meteorological data input site and the dispersion modelling site, gave the best results under the well mixed conditions of the trial.     

Applied dispersion modelling based on meteorological scaling parameters

A method for calculating the dispersion of plumes in the atmospheric boundary layer is presented. The method is easy to use on a routine basis. The inputs to the method are fundamental meteorological parameters, which act as distinct scaling parameters for the turbulence. The atmospheric boundary layer is divided into a number of regimes. For each scaling regime we suggest models for the dispersion in the vertical direction. The models directly give the crosswind-integrated concentrations at the ground, x_y, for nonbuoyant releases from a continuous point source. Generally the vertical concentration profile is proposed to be other than Gaussian. The lateral concentration profile is always assumed to be Gaussian, and models for determining the lateral spread σ_y are proposed. The method is limited to horizontally homogeneous conditions and travel distances less than 10km. The method is evaluated against independent tracer experiments over land. The overall agreement between measurements and predictions is very good and better than that found with the traditional Gaussian plume model.     

工业点源大气污染扩散空间信息系统

开发了一个基于高斯扩散的大气污染扩散空间信息系统,用于模拟工业点源污染对区域大气质量的影响。该工业点源污染模型包括工业点源数据库、扩散参数、气象条件和大气质量评价4个主要数据库。用该模型计算上海市主要工业区的SO2排放,结果表明,该模型为模拟SO2污染扩散提供了一个有效便捷的方法。     

Principal Plume Dispersion Models: TVA Power Plants

The body of information presented in this paper is directed to those individuals who may be concerned with principal plume dispersion models at coal-burning power plants. About 20 years of comprehensive field surveillance and documentation of dispersion of power plant emissions for a varied range of unit sizes, stack heights, and meteorological conditions have determined the Tennessee Valley Authority’s interpretation of principal plume dispersion models. TVA’s experience indicates that as unit sizes are increased and taller stacks are constructed, the plume dispersion model associated with maximum surface concentrations changes. Maximum surface concentrations for principal plume dispersion models were approximately equal for the early small plants. However, the coning model was considered the critical plume dispersion model because the frequency of recurrence of surface concentrations from this model was appreciably greater than other models.

There were progressive changes because of an increase in unit sizes and stack heights; the magnitude of maximum surface concentrations from the coning model decreased, and the magnitude (relative to the coning model) of concentrations from the inversion breakup model increased. However, with plumes from newer and larger units with higher stacks, the trapping dispersion model became prominent. Finally, by the time unit size had increased to 900 mw and stack height to about 245 meters, as at Bull Run Power Plant, the magnitude of surface concentrations associated with trapping had increased to such a degree that it became the critical dispersion model identified with power plants of this size.     

Refining emission rate estimates using a coupled receptor–dispersion modeling approach

Receptor modeling techniques like chemical mass balance are used to attribute pollution levels at a point to different sources. Here we analyze the composition of particulate matter and use the source profiles of sources prevalent in a region to estimate quantitative source contributions. In dispersion modeling on the other hand the emission rates of various sources together with meteorological conditions are used to determine the concentrations levels at a point or in a region. The predictions using these two approaches are often inconsistent. In this work these differences are attributed to errors in emission inventory. Here an algorithm for coupling receptor and dispersion models is proposed to reduce the differences of the two predictions and determine the emission rates accurately. The proposed combined approach helps reconcile the differences arising when the two approaches are used in a stand-alone mode. This work is based on assuming that the models are perfect and uses a model-to-model comparison to illustrate the concept.