Improving pollutant source characterization by better estimating wind direction with a genetic algorithm

In homeland security applications, it is often necessary to characterize the source location and strength of a potentially harmful contaminant. Correct source characterization requires accurate meteorological data such as wind direction. Unfortunately, available meteorological data is often inaccurate or unrepresentative, having insufficient spatial and temporal resolution for precise modeling of pollutant dispersion. To address this issue, a method is presented that simultaneously determines the surface wind direction and the pollutant source characteristics. This method compares monitored receptor data to pollutant dispersion model output and uses a genetic algorithm (GA) to find the combination of source location, source strength, and surface wind direction that best matches the dispersion model output to the receptor data. A GA optimizes variables using principles from genetics and evolution.The approach is validated with an identical twin experiment using synthetic receptor data and a Gaussian plume equation as the dispersion model. Given sufficient receptor data, the GA is able to reproduce the wind direction, source location, and source strength. Additional runs incorporating white noise into the receptor data to simulate real-world variability demonstrate that the GA is still capable of computing the correct solution, as long as the magnitude of the noise does not exceed that of the receptor data.     

The Influence of Annual Meteorological Variations On Regional Air Pollution Modeling: A Case Study of Allegheny County,Pennsylvania

The influence of year-to-year meteorological variations on the prediction of annual average ground-level pollutant concentrations has been examined via case studies of Allegheny County, Pa. Twenty-two stability wind roses representing different averaging intervals of from one to seven years were employed in the Air Quality Display Model to predict annual average SO₂ concentrations in two multiple source sub-basins, and from two single point sources representing industrial and utility boiler stacks. Effects of annual meteorological variations were manifested by changes in the magnitude of peak concentrations, the location of peak concentrations, and the geographic distribution of pollutants. For fixed rates of emission, the peak annual average SO₂ ground-level concentration varied by an average of up to 33% of highest values for point sources and 17% for sub-basin complexes. In both cases, there was relatively little change in the location of peak concentration, though occasional directional shifts were noted. In contrast, marked variations were noted in the geographic area exposed to annual average concentrations in excess of several selected values. To aid in regional planning, several methods were formulated which considerably reduced the uncertainty in predicting peak annual concentration for varying degrees of historical data on regional stability wind rose. These methods are-especially applicable to analysis of control strategies directed at attaining annual ambient air quality standards which nominally must never be exceeded.     

A model for the maximum credible hourly impact on any ground receptor from point sources with thermal plume rise

A pollutant dispersion model is developed, allowing fast evaluation of the maximum credible 1-h average concentration on any given ground-level receptor, along with the corresponding critical meteorological conditions (wind speed and stability class) for stacks with buoyant plumes in urban or rural areas. Site-specific meteorological data are not required, as the computed concentrations are maximized against all credible combinations of wind speed, stability class, and mixing height. The analysis is based on the dispersion relations of Pasquill-Gifford and Briggs for rural and urban settings, respectively, the buoyancy induced dispersion correlation of Pasquill, the wind profile exponent values suggested by Irwin, the buoyant plume rise relations of Briggs, as well as the Benkley and Schulman's model for the minimum mixing heights. The model is particularly suited for air pollution management studies, as it allows fast screening of the maximum impact on any selected receptor and evaluation of the ways to have this impact reduced. It is also suited for regulatory purposes, as it can be used to define the minimum stack size requirements for a given source as a function of the exit gas volume and temperature, the pollutant emission rates and their hourly concentration standards, as well as the source location relative to sensitive receptors.     

The Transport of Suspended Particulates as a Function of Wind Direction and Atmospheric Conditions

Linear regression of high volume air sampler data and various meteorological parameters was used to determine a suspended particulate air pollution climatology for Albany, NY. A new method for exhibiting associations between wind direction and pollutant levels using correlation coefficients is presented. Correlations between wind direction distribution frequency and other meteorological parameters is employed to help explain differences in correlations for direction with suspended particulate levels. Results show that high particulate concentrations correlate well with southerly wind flow throughout the study area, regardless of relative location of receptor to local sources. This suggests that ambient background concentrations inherent in different air masses more consistently affected suspended particulate levels than did the diffusion from local sources during the study period. Maximum particulate advection occurs under conditions of good mixing of the boundary layer and moderate wind speeds and is enhanced further in the absence of removal processes such as rainout and washout. Trajectory analysis of selected days indicates a definite relationship between path and origin of the wind flow and regional average particulate concentration.     

An analysis of continuous black carbon concentrations in proximity to an airport and major roadways

Black carbon (BC), a constituent of particulate matter, is emitted from multiple combustion sources, complicating determination of contributions from individual sources or source categories from monitoring data. In close proximity to an airport, this may include aircraft emissions, other emissions on the airport grounds, and nearby major roadways, and it would be valuable to determine the factors most strongly related to measured BC concentrations. In this study, continuous BC concentrations were measured at five monitoring sites in proximity to a small regional airport in Warwick, Rhode Island from July 2005 to August 2006. Regression was used to model the relative contributions of aircraft and related sources, using real-time flight activity (departures and arrivals) and meteorological data, including mixing height, wind speed and direction. The latter two were included as a nonparametric smooth spatial term using thin-plate splines applied to wind velocity vectors and fit in a linear mixed model framework. Standard errors were computed using a moving-block bootstrap to account for temporal autocorrelation. Results suggest significant positive associations between hourly departures and arrivals at the airport and BC concentrations within the community, with departures having a more substantial impact. Generalized Additive Models for wind speed and direction were consistent with significant contributions from the airport, major highway, and multiple local roads. Additionally, inverse mixing height, temperature, precipitation, and at one location relative humidity, were associated with BC concentrations. Median contribution estimates indicate that aircraft departures and arrivals (and other sources coincident in space and time) contribute to approximately 24–28% of the BC concentrations at the monitoring sites in the community. Our analysis demonstrated that a regression-based approach with detailed meteorological and source characterization can provide insights about source contributions, which could be used to devise control strategies or to provide monitor-based comparisons with source-specific atmospheric dispersion models.     

Urban tracer dispersion experiments during the second DAPPLE field campaign in London 2004

As part of the DAPPLE programme two large scale urban tracer experiments using multiple simultaneous releases of cyclic perfluoroalkanes from fixed location point sources was performed. The receptor concentrations along with relevant meteorological parameters measured are compared with a three screening dispersion models in order to best predict the decay of pollution sources with respect to distance. It is shown here that the simple dispersion models tested here can provide a reasonable upper bound estimate of the maximum concentrations measured with an empirical model derived from field observations and wind tunnel studies providing the best estimate. An indoor receptor was also used to assess indoor concentrations and their pertinence to commonly used evacuation procedures.     

A Simulation Model for Air Pollution over Connecticut

A different approach to mathematically modeling large-scale atmospheric processes is presented. Whereas past approaches have been to develop a model based on an accumulation of information from a specific geographical area, resulting in a model applicable to that area only, we have developed a general mathematical model applicable to any geographical area. The model’s applicability is controlled by specifying the input information describing the meteorological situation and pollution source configuration. A rectangular array of grid points is used to specify both the wind field, by using stream functions, and the average source strength of some pollutant for the area represented by the grid. The diffusion problem is divided into two areas: transport by the mean wind field, and dispersion based on travel time and distance as described by empirical equations. Trajectories of pollutants are traced backwards from the points of interest in the course of the calculations and the contributions of all sources that affect the points of interest are accumulated. The model requires an array of source strength information. An inventory of pollution sources in the State of Connecticut was compiled and maps of source strengths were prepared for five pollutants on a 5000-ft grid-square array. Maps of sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide source strengths are presented with the resulting concentration distribution for “typical” meteorological conditions. The model permits the changing of meteorological or source values at predetermined intervals so that diurnal changes are incorporated in the calculations. The model has not been verified, but the values of pollution concentration are the right order of magnitude and the resulting patterns are as expected.     

Air pollution in the Krusne Hory region,Czech Republic during the 1990s

Emissions from the Black Triangle Region were considered to be the major source of air pollution problems in Europe during the 1990s. This discussion reviews the changes in emissions and pollution concentrations in the Krusne Hory Region (Czech Republic) in the winter half of the year during most of the past decade, and describes the relationships with meteorology. Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) is used as the example pollutant. The results show a decrease in pollution concentrations since 1996, as air pollution control and management strategies for important point sources take effect. The winter of 1995–1996 was especially harsh in the number of pollution episodes. Correlations between SO₂ and meteorological parameters are inconsistent. Wind direction provides the best relationship at monitoring stations along the Krusne Hory Plateau, with wind speed and temperature more variable depending on month and location. For the valley stations, higher SO₂ concentrations are strongly related to colder temperatures, higher relative humidities, and lower wind speeds. A case study during the winter of 1995–1996 (November 9–15) illustrated the importance of synoptic high pressure and a low-level inversion in minimizing plume dispersion from point sources. Specific sources of SO₂ affecting each station could thus be identified.     

developing a practical dispersion model for an air quality region

A series of computer models have been developed to predict air quality in the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality Region. Efforts have been directed at models which have a shorter time scale than climatological models, and which are capable of providing better recommendations for effective abatement and planning, but use input data presently available.

The basic dispersion model for these investigations is a steady-state,nondivergent Gaussian-type model. A modified inventory of SO₂ sources,based on published data for the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality Region, was prepared for use with the model. The basic model has been subjected to various internal sensitivity analyses, in which was isolated the variation produced in the pollutant concentration by a given change in each of the factors that contribute, e.g., wind speed, wind direction,mixing depth, stability conditions, source strengths, and grid size for the area sources.

To date, validation tests of the model have been made against the July and August 1969 data for the ten telemetering stations of the New York City Aerometric Network. Hourly as well as averaged concentrations were considered. Various sets of meteorological data from the network stations and the three area airports, were compared and tested. Additional tests, particularly for the winter season, are needed to substantiate the preliminary conclusions suggested by the results to date.

Considerable insight into the relative importance of model components has been acquired from the sensitivity studies. Furthermore the validation results lend support to the belief that a reasonably simple, practical dispersion model can be developed for the region.     

Neural Network Model for Predicting Peak Photochemical Pollutant Levels

ABSTRACT

In this paper, an attempt is made for the 24-hr prediction of photochemical pollutant levels using a neural network model. For this purpose, a model is developed that relates peak pollutant concentrations to meteorological and emission variables and indexes. The analysis is based on measurements of O₃ and NO₂ from the city of Athens. The meteorological variables are selected to cover atmospheric processes that determine the fate of the airborne pollutants while special care is taken to ensure the availability of the required input data from routine observations or forecasts. The comparison between model predictions and actual observations shows a good agreement. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests is performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the uncertainty in meteorological variables. Model forecasts are generally rather insensitive to small perturbations in most of the input meteorological data, while they are relatively more sensitive in changes in wind speed and direction.     

Application of an integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/CALPUFF modeling tool for source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants for air quality management: A case study in the urban area of Benxi,China

In this study, the authors endeavored to develop an effective framework for improving local urban air quality on meso-micro scales in cities in China that are experiencing rapid urbanization. Within this framework, the integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/CALPUFF modeling system was applied to simulate the concentration distributions of typical pollutants (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm [PM₁₀], sulfur dioxide [SO₂], and nitrogen oxides [NO_x]) in the urban area of Benxi. Statistical analyses were performed to verify the credibility of this simulation, including the meteorological fields and concentration fields. The sources were then categorized using two different classification methods (the district-based and type-based methods), and the contributions to the pollutant concentrations from each source category were computed to provide a basis for appropriate control measures. The statistical indexes showed that CALMET had sufficient ability to predict the meteorological conditions, such as the wind fields and temperatures, which provided meteorological data for the subsequent CALPUFF run. The simulated concentrations from CALPUFF showed considerable agreement with the observed values but were generally underestimated. The spatial-temporal concentration pattern revealed that the maximum concentrations tended to appear in the urban centers and during the winter. In terms of their contributions to pollutant concentrations, the districts of Xihu, Pingshan, and Mingshan all affected the urban air quality to different degrees. According to the type-based classification, which categorized the pollution sources as belonging to the Bengang Group, large point sources, small point sources, and area sources, the source apportionment showed that the Bengang Group, the large point sources, and the area sources had considerable impacts on urban air quality. Finally, combined with the industrial characteristics, detailed control measures were proposed with which local policy makers could improve the urban air quality in Benxi. In summary, the results of this study showed that this framework has credibility for effectively improving urban air quality, based on the source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants.

Implications: The authors endeavored to build up an effective framework based on the integrated WRF/CALPUFF to improve the air quality in many cities on meso-micro scales in China. Via this framework, the integrated modeling tool is accurately used to study the characteristics of meteorological fields, concentration fields, and source apportionments of pollutants in target area. The impacts of classified sources on air quality together with the industrial characteristics can provide more effective control measures for improving air quality.

Through the case study, the technical framework developed in this study, particularly the source apportionment, could provide important data and technical support for policy makers to assess air pollution on the scale of a city in China or even the world.     

Algorithms and analytical solutions for rapidly approximating long-term dispersion from line and area sources

Predicting long-term mean pollutant concentrations in the vicinity of airports, roads and other industrial sources are frequently of concern in regulatory and public health contexts. Many emissions are represented geometrically as ground-level line or area sources. Well developed modelling tools such as AERMOD and ADMS are able to model dispersion from finite (i.e. non-point) sources with considerable accuracy, drawing upon an up-to-date understanding of boundary layer behaviour. Due to mathematical difficulties associated with line and area sources, computationally expensive numerical integration schemes have been developed. For example, some models decompose area sources into a large number of line sources orthogonal to the mean wind direction, for which an analytical (Gaussian) solution exists. Models also employ a time-series approach, which involves computing mean pollutant concentrations for every hour over one or more years of meteorological data. This can give rise to computer runtimes of several days for assessment of a site. While this may be acceptable for assessment of a single industrial complex, airport, etc., this level of computational cost precludes national or international policy assessments at the level of detail available with dispersion modelling. In this paper, we extend previous work [S.R.H. Barrett, R.E. Britter, 2008. Development of algorithms and approximations for rapid operational air quality modelling. Atmospheric Environment 42 (2008) 8105–8111] to line and area sources. We introduce approximations which allow for the development of new analytical solutions for long-term mean dispersion from line and area sources, based on hypergeometric functions. We describe how these solutions can be parameterized from a single point source run from an existing advanced dispersion model, thereby accounting for all processes modelled in the more costly algorithms. The parameterization method combined with the analytical solutions for long-term mean dispersion are shown to produce results several orders of magnitude more efficiently with a loss of accuracy small compared to the absolute accuracy of advanced dispersion models near sources. The method can be readily incorporated into existing dispersion models, and may allow for additional computation time to be expended on modelling dispersion processes more accurately in future, rather than on accounting for source geometry.     

Surface Air Pollutant Concentration Frequency Distributions: Implications for Urban Modeling

With the development of ambient air quality standards (AAQS), the need arises to describe the characteristics of regional surface air-pollutant concentration frequency distributions. In the evaluation of land use plans, numerous agencies will be concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of emission zoning and/or control actions. On a regional basis, one means of performing this assessment lies in determining the changes in the pollutant frequency distributions resulting from control actions.

This study presents new data concerning the surface air-pollutant concentration frequency distributions observed for area sources and continuous point sources, and compares these distributions with those of the pertinent meteorological variables describing the transport and diffusion of the pollutant. The observed surface air pollutant frequency distributions are compared to those corresponding to simple modeling concepts from either an urban area source or a continuous point source. For an urban source and a relatively inert pollutant like CO, we found that the observed frequency distribution for CO surface air concentration parallels the approximately log-normal frequency distribution of the reciprocal of the wind speed. We show that the constant relating these two well-correlated frequency distributions can be determined either experimentally or with a numerical simulation model of air pollution. The usefulness of numerical models in air pollution is discussed.     

An Efficient Gaussian-Plume Multiple-Source Air Quality Algorithm

The information presented in this paper is directed to air pollution scientists with an interest in applying air quality simulation models. RAM is the three letter designation for this efficient Gaussian-plume multiple-source air quality algorithm. RAM is a method of estimating short-term dispersion using the Gaussian steady-state model. This algorithm can be used for estimating air quality concentrations of relatively stable pollutants for averaging times from an hour to a day in urban areas from point and area sources. The algorithm is applicable for locations with level or gently rolling terrain where a single wind vector for each hour is a good approximation to the flow over the source area considered. Calculations are performed for each hour. Hourly meteorological data required are wind direction, wind speed, stability class, and mixing height. Emission information required of point sources consists of source coordinates, emission rate, physical height, stack gas volume flow and stack gas temperature. Emission information required of area sources consists of south-west corner coordinates, source area, total area emission rate and effective area source height. Computation time is kept to a minimum by the manner in which concentrations from area sources are estimated using a narrow plume hypothesis and using the area source squares as given rather than breaking down all sources to an area of uniform elements. Options are available to the user to allow use of three different types of receptor locations: 1 ) those whose coordinates are input by the user, 2) those whose coordinates are determined by thé model and are downwind óf significant point and area sources where maxima are likely to occur, and 3) those whose coordinates are determined by the model to give good area coverage of a specific portion of the region. Computation time is also decreased by keeping the number of receptors to a minimum.     

Seasonal Source-Receptor Relationships in a Petrochemical Industrial District over Northern Taiwan

Abstract

This study investigated the relationships between meteorological data, pollution sources, and receptors over northern Taiwan. During the intensive sampling period in summer 1992, the weather was controlled predominantly by a Pacific subtropical high and by Typhoon Mark. During the other intensive sampling period in winter 1993, while a cold frontal system approached Taiwan, the northeasterly winds prevailed most of the time. The local circulation such as land-sea breeze only developed under weak synoptic environment. Particle concentrations and element composition in winter were higher than in summer. This can be attributed to the high convection of air mass, which leads to the vertical dispersion of pollutants in summer. In addition to the subtropical high pressure, typhoons are frequently accompanied with high-wind speeds and unstable weather conditions that also dilute and eliminate the pollutants. In winter, the prevailing northeasterlies might carry pollutants from Midland China. Furthermore, the anticyclone system develops a stagnant condition that easily leads to pollutant accumulation. In this case, the wind direction affected the source contribution of the receptor and the PM₁₀ displays a higher correlation with coarse and fine particulate than meteorological parameters in summer. In addition, the mixing height shows a high correlation with PM₁₀ in winter.     

Coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with AERMOD for pollutant dispersion modeling. A case study for PM10 dispersion over Pune,India

The prediction of spatial variation of the concentration of a pollutant governed by various sources and sinks is a complex problem. Gaussian air pollutant dispersion models such as AERMOD of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) can be used for this purpose. AERMOD requires steady and horizontally homogeneous hourly surface and upper air meteorological observations. However, observations with such frequency are not easily available for most locations in India. To overcome this limitation, the planetary boundary layer and surface layer parameters required by AERMOD were computed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 2.1.1) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We have developed a preprocessor for offline coupling of WRF with AERMOD. Using this system, the dispersion of respirable particulate matter (RSPM/PM10) over Pune, India has been simulated. Data from the emissions inventory development and field-monitoring campaign (13–17 April 2005) conducted under the Pune Air Quality Management Program of the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), India and USEPA, have been used to drive and validate AERMOD. Comparison between the simulated and observed temperature and wind fields shows that WRF is capable of generating reliable meteorological inputs for AERMOD. The comparison of observed and simulated concentrations of PM10 shows that the model generally underestimates the concentrations over the city. However, data from this single case study would not be sufficient to conclude on suitability of regionally averaged meteorological parameters for driving Gaussian models like AERMOD and additional simulations with different WRF parameterizations along with an improved pollutant source data will be required for enhancing the reliability of the WRF–AERMOD modeling system.     

Field studies of aldehyde chemistry in the Paris area

Measurements of carbonyl compound concentrations at different sites in the Paris area have been carried out. Interpretation of the results made use of the following data: general meteorological conditions, wind field analysis and type of primary pollutant sources. The principal phenomena observed were: a sharp formaldehyde decrease during rainfall; concentration levels of lower aldehydes in rural sites comparable to those found in the literature; an important variation in the ratio of primary aldehydes to secondary aldehydes depending on meteorological conditions; a significant increase in lower aldehyde concentrations downwind from the urban center despite vertical dispersion of the pollutants.     

Measurements and analyses of nitrogen oxides and ozone in the yard and on the roof of a street-canyon in Suzhou

The concentrations of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and ozone characterised by very fast chemical reactions can significantly vary within urban street-canyon due to the short distances between sources and receptor. With the primary objective to analyse this issue, NO, NO₂, NO_x, O₃, BTX, and wind flow field were continuously measured for 1 week at two heights (a street-level yard and a 25-m-high rooftop) in an urban canyon in Suzhou (China). The yard ozone concentrations were found to be up to six times lower than on the roof. Different frequency distributions (FD), dynamical and chemical processes of the pollutant variations from yard to roof are discussed to explain the findings. The predominant factors for the dissimilar pollutant vertical diffusion at the two measurement locations were associated to dissimilar fluid-dynamic and heterogeneous removal effects that likely induced dissimilar ozone chemical processes relative to NO_x and BTX precursors.     

Effects of Strength and Position of Pollutant Source on Pollutant Dispersion Within an Urban Street Canyon

A two-dimensional numerical model for simulating airflow and pollutant dispersion inside an urban street canyon was first developed using the FLUENT code, and then it was validated against a wind tunnel experiment. Then the effects of strength and position of pollutant sources on pollutant dispersion within an urban street canyon were investigated numerically. The numerical results showed that the dimensionless pollutant concentrations within the urban street canyon were independent from the source strength. The results also revealed that the pollutant distributions inside the urban street canyon with a two-lane road were influenced significantly by the positions of the two sources: 1) the closer the two sources were to the street center of the canyon, the lower the pollutant concentrations on the leeward wall and at the human respiration level in the leeward footpath became; 2) the pollutant concentrations on the windward wall and at the human respiration level in the windward footpath were not sensitive to the locations of the two sources as long as the source on the windward lane was situated outside the small recirculation zone at the bottom corner of the canyon windward wall; 3) the pollutant concentrations on the lower parts of the windward and leeward walls as well as in the two footpaths increased greatly when the two sources were moved from outside into the small recirculation zones.     

Analysis of air quality within a street canyon using statistical and dispersion modelling techniques

The dispersion model, ADMS-Urban, alongside the statistical modelling technique, generalized additive modelling, have been used to predict hourly NO_x and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations at a busy street canyon location and the results compared with measurements. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were constructed for NO₂ and NO_x concentrations using input data required to run ADMS-Urban. Bivariate polar plots have been produced from the wind flow (speed and direction) and pollution data (measured and predicted concentrations) to provide further information regarding the complex wind-pollutant interactions in an urban street canyon. The predictions made with the GAMs show excellent agreement with measured concentrations at this location, reproducing both the magnitude of NO_x and NO₂ concentrations and also the wind speed-wind direction dependence of pollutant sources within the canyon. However, the predictions made with ADMS-Urban under-estimated the measured NO_x by 11% and NO₂ by 21% and there are clear differences in the bivariate polar plots. Several sensitivity tests were carried out with ADMS-Urban in an attempt to produce predictions in closer agreement to those measured at Gillygate. Increasing the primary NO₂ fraction in ADMS-Urban (from 10% to 20%) had a considerable effect on the predictions made with this model, increasing NO₂ predictions by ∼20%. However, the bivariate plots still showed major differences to those of the measurements. This work illustrates that generalized additive modelling is a useful tool for investigating complex wind-pollutant interactions within a street canyon.