Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate

This research examines whether a long-run stationary equilibrium relationship holds between economic activity and the consumption of crude steel within the UK. Using the theory of fractionally integrated and cointegrated processes, and allowing for the possibility that the equilibrium path changes abruptly at occasional points in time, it is possible to determine if steel consumption and economic activity follow a common stochastic trend or whether the two series randomly drift apart over time. Evidence is found to support such a long term relationship. This result is at odds with the conclusions drawn by previous researchers in the area. The reason for this difference may be due to these researchers concentrating only on I(0) and I(1) specifications, without consideration of fractional possibilities and also to a failure to account for structural breaks in the equilibrium relationship. Such conclusions are made within the framework of the ARFIMA methodology that yields reliable inferences on the degree of fractional integration and cointegration. Critical values for fractional contegration with an ARFIMA model in the presence of structural breaks are also derived in this paper.     

The price of gold and the exchange rates: Once again

This paper examines the theoretical and empirical relationships between the major exchange rates and the price of gold using forecast error data. Among other things, it is found that, since the dissolution of the Bretton Woods international monetary system, floating exchange rates among the major currencies have been a major source of price instability in the world gold market and, as the world gold market now seems to be dominated by the US dollar bloc, appreciations or depreciations of that dollar would have strong effects on the price of gold in other currencies. The results of this study are rather different from those obtained in an earlier study of the same subject.     

Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy

This paper empirically examines the impact of oil price volatility on key macroeconomic indicators of Thailand. Following Andersen et al. [2004. Analytical evaluation of volatility forecasts. International Economic Review 45(4), 1079–1110], quarterly oil price volatility is measured by using the realized volatility (RV). The impact of the oil price volatility is investigated using the vector auto-regression (VAR) system. The Granger causality test, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition show that oil price volatility has significant impact on macroeconomic indicators, such as unemployment and investment, over the period from 1993Q1 to 2006Q4. Perron's [1997. Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables. Journal of Econometrics 80(2), 355–385] test identifies structural breaks in all the concerned variables during the time of the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998). A VAR for the post-crisis period shows that the impact of oil price volatility is transmitted to budget deficit. The floating exchange rate regime introduced after the crisis may be the key contributor to this new channel of impact.     

Mixed signals: market incentives, recycling, and the price spike of 1995

Environmental economics assumes that reliance on price signals, adjusted for externalities, normally leads to efficient solutions to environmental problems. We explore a limiting case, when market volatility created ‘mixed signals’: prices of waste paper and other recycled materials were suddenly extremely high in 1994–1995, then plummeted back to traditional low levels in 1996. These rapid reversals resulted in substantial economic and political costs. A review of academic and business literature suggests six possible explanations for abrupt price spikes. An econometric analysis of the prices of wood pulp and waste paper shows that factor which explained price changes in 1983–1993 contribute very little to understanding the subsequent price spike. From the econometric analysis and from other sources, we conclude that speculation must have played a major role in the price spike, perhaps in combination with modest effects from changes in government policy and in export demand. If speculatively driven price spikes can disrupt an environmentally important industry such as recycling, what is the appropriate role for public policy? When price volatility is sufficiently disruptive, then measures to control or stabilize prices, rather than interfering with the market, might help to make it more efficient.     

From landfill to water,land and life: The creation of the Centre for stone materials aimed at secondary processing

This paper focuses on the creation of a Centre for the recycling of stone materials. The Centre will be able to offer a range of activities amongst which is the improvement of the production chain of the Orosei Marble district in Sardinia, Italy. Several companies operate within the marble producing area, specializing in both quarrying and stone processing. They have formed a Consortium in order to rehabilitate an area of more than 17 ha. The restoration will be carried out through an environmentally sustainable procedure. The area was previously used as a landfill for waste deriving from marble quarrying and processing. At that time unshaped blocks of various sizes (which are unsuitable to block-cutter sawing), waste deriving from both block sawing and slab/strip cutting (such as broken slabs, strips, tiles) and microfine dust from filter presses of water treatment plants were representing an environmental problem. The local administration was struggling to find new areas which could be used for landfills, resulting in an additional cost for the landfill, ultimately affecting the variable production costs. The project involves the building of a venue to be used for temporary storage, treatment of wastes produced by both quarrying and primary processing, in order to make them suitable as secondary raw materials. The project also deals with the catch basin hydrology of the area involved in the project, the building of a multifunctional centre, the landscaping and other environmental features such as vehicle traffic and slopes greening.     

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining in Burkina Faso: Suggestion of multi-agent methodology as a complementary support in elaborating a policy

In order to better manage artisanal and small-scale gold mining, the Burkinabe authorities have planned to build a suitable methodological support as an aid to elaborating appropriate policies and actions. The developed methodology concerns (a) at a spatial level, the generation and analysis of a geological resources map needed by the artisanal miners and (b) at a socioeconomic level, analysis of the miners' activity. This paper reports and discusses the results of our suggestion to also introduce the use of an approach known as multi-agent system (MAS) as a complementary part of this initial methodology, at a downstage level to the above two analysis stages. MAS methodology could be used to develop simulation models to forecast the future of the activity. MAS is appropriate for describing the dynamics of systems where it is impossible to obtain all output data of a model from a purely mathematical or statistical transformation of input data. Our suggestion involves (i) demonstrating the capacity of the approach to simulate all parameters needed by mining policy makers and (ii) evaluating to what extent the methodology is accepted by them, as well as, at a more scientific level, the literature regarding mining system simulation.     

On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.     

Broadening the statistical search for metal price super cycles to steel and related metals

During the past five years, industry analysts have proclaimed that metal prices are in the early phase of a ‘super cycle,’ driven primarily by Chinese industrial expansion. Academic economists have generally been very skeptical about the presence of long cycles. A time-series econometric analysis by Cuddington and Jerrett [2008. Super cycles in real metals prices? IMF Staff Pap. 55(4), in press], however, has used band-pass filtering techniques to isolate super cycles in the prices of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (the ‘LME6’). This paper extends the search for super-cycle behavior to three additional metal products that are critical in the early phases of industrial development and urbanization: steel, pig iron, and molybdenum (a key ingredient in many steel alloys). There is strong evidence of super cycles in these three metals, although their timing differs to some extent from the super cycles found for the LME6.     

An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals

In recent years, commodity markets show a large amount of volatility and substantial price jumps, indicating an increasing economic scarcity in many cases. As this scarcity makes commodity procurement a critical issue for national economies, industry sectors and manufacturing companies, a number of criticality indices have been presented and utilized in science as well as in practice. These indices are mostly based on an aggregation of different key figures, both qualitative and quantitative. However, the weighting of the different factors is in most cases arbitrary or based on rough estimates.     

Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply,reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches

The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC–3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840–2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7–3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35–1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027–2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply.     

Property rights integrity,tenure security and forestland rental market participation: Evidence from Jiangxi Province,China

The decentralization of property rights is the focus of the forest tenure reforms in several developing countries. In China, it was achieved by the launch of a new round of collective forest tenure reform beginning in 2003, which provided farmers with more integrated and secure forestland rights. Drawing on household data collected in Jiangxi province in 2011 and 2013, this paper examines the impacts of households’ recognition of property rights and improved tenure security on forestland rental activities. Our empirical results show that households with higher perceptions of more complete use rights and mortgage rights have a lower probability and intensity of renting‐in land, while households with lower expectations of future forestland redistribution or expropriation are more likely to rent in forestland and more of it. These results imply that the development of a forestland rental market leading to better forest management requires an integrated forestland management approach consisting of decentralization of property rights and village governance. In particular, the central government may further clarify the rights and obligations affiliated to forestland ownership, contractual rights, and management rights; while the village collective may shift from direct intervention in the integrity and security of forestland rights to the supervision and protection of decentralized forestland rights to increase efficiency from the decentralization of property rights.     

Measurement of market power for the environmentally regulated Korean iron and steel manufacturing industry

For industries in which where market prices of certain inputs are not available, measuring the degree of market power by using the markup over the marginal market cost may be inappropriate. With regard to the Korean iron and steel manufacturing industry, which is subject to environmental regulations, the calculation of the price of abatement capital is hindered by a lack of relevant data. To increase the reliability of market power markups, this paper estimates the restricted cost function in which abatement capital is assumed to be quasi-fixed at an optimal level and the supply relation. The degree of market power for the industry, measured as the ratio of the estimated market power markup to the supply price, was estimated to be 0.54 on average between 1982 and 2001. The results indicate that ignoring environmental regulations can overstate the degree of market power by approximately 12%.     

Environmental policy stringency,renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions: Panel cointegration analysis for BRIICTS countries

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between environmental policy stringency and CO₂ emissions in BRIICTS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, Turkey and South Africa) for the period 1993–2014 after controlling for renewable energy, fossil energy, oil prices and income. We believe that this is the first attempt to use the recently OECD-developed environmental policy stringency index to test the effectiveness of environmental stringency policy in reducing CO₂ emission in these countries. Applying the Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributive Lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator, we found an inverted U–shaped relationship between environmental policy stringency and CO₂ emissions. This suggests that initially strict stringent environmental policy does not lead to improvements in the environment but after a certain level or a threshold point, environmental stringency policy leads to improvement in environmental quality. Renewable energy consumption was negatively related to CO₂ emissions while fossil energy consumption and real oil prices and income were positively and significantly related to CO₂. Our findings suggest that strengthening the stringency of environmental policies and promoting renewable energy are effective ways of preventing environmental degradation in BRIICTS countries.     

Evidence of hydrocarbon contamination from the Burgan oil field, Kuwait: interpretations from thermal remote sensing data

The paper presents the application of thermal remote sensing for mapping hydrocarbon polluted sites. This has been achieved by mono-window algorithm for land surface temperature (LST) measurements, using multi-date band 6 data of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM). The emissivity, transmittance and mean atmospheric temperature were used as critical factors to estimate LST. The changes in the surface emissivity due to oil pollution alter the apparent temperature, which was used as a recognition element to map out oil polluted surfaces. The LST contrast was successfully used to map spatial distribution of hydrocarbon pollution in the Burgan Oil field area of Kuwait. The methodology can be positively used to detect waste dumping, oil spills in oceans and ports, besides environmental management of oil pollution at or near the land surface.     

The Tucson Mineral Show and the market for collector minerals: The potential for artisanal and small scale miners

Minerals that are sold to collectors are often produced by artisanal and small scale miners in many developing countries. The market for collector minerals is not well understood by most government agencies or NGOs but has a large impact on the artisanal and small miners that have the opportunity to produce these minerals because of the high prices that can be realized. This paper describes the collector mineral market that is held annually in Tucson, Arizona, that analyzes the competitive forces that affect the profitability of the mineral dealers at the show and describes potential methods for artisanal and small scale miners to participate successfully in the show. Most collector minerals produced by artisanal and small-scale miners are valued for their aesthetic qualities instead of mineral content. The 43 shows that operate during the first two weeks in February make up the largest gem and mineral show in the world, the Tucson Show. The Tucson Mineral Show is a subgroup of six shows that specialize primarily in collector minerals.There are several competitive forces at the Tucson Mineral Show that can affect the profit potential of dealers that participate in the show. These forces include potential entrants, suppliers, buyers, substitutes, and rivalry among existing competitors. New entrants face several barriers to entering the market place including the supply side economies of scale, demand side benefits of scale, and capital requirements. Because of these barriers, the cost of doing business and the way that promoters organize and manage the shows, it is difficult for artisanal and small scale miners to enter the show and compete with established dealers. However, with support from entities such as local governments, non-profit organizations, and international organizations the artisanal and small scale miners have the potential to have their minerals sold at the Tucson Shows for prices that would be greater than what can be achieved in the local market. Methods to help the artisanal and small scale miners compete include direct sales or consignments to retail dealers, tailgating, development of sales co-operatives, and the creation of an artisanal/small scale mineral show.     

A market for nature: linking the production and consumption of organics in Tuscany

Contemporary analysis of the food sector has failed convincingly to link production to consumption, and it has not provided a sociological account of such links. This paper makes a provisional attempt to begin such an analysis and does so by examining the case of the market for organic food in Tuscany. It proposes that the ‘pioneers’ of organics in this region constituted a new food movement that succeeded in opening up a new market. However, this market could only be successfully expanded once other actors were enrolled in the market-making process, notably state agencies and supermarkets. The regional government, through new regulations and specific initiatives, integrated organic foods into rural development policy, thereby assisting producers in the process of conversion. Supermarkets co-operated in the implementation of these policies and made space for Tuscan organic products in their stores. So while the ‘pioneers’ began the process of market building, these later entrants were crucial to the stabilization and expansion of the organic sector in Tuscany. Thus, it can be concluded that the emergence of these new ‘markets’ for nature can only be adequately explained by analysing the full range of actors. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The community vs. the market and the state: Forest use inUttarakhand in the Indian Himalayas

Most writers on resource management presume that local populations, if they act in their self-interest, seldom conserve or protect natural resources without external intervention or privatization. Using the example of forest management by villagers in the Indian Himalayas, this paper argues that rural populations can often use resources sustainably and successfully, even under assumptions of self-interested rationality. Under a set of specified social and environmental conditions, conditions that prevail in large areas of the Himalayas and may also exist in other mountain regions, community institutions are more efficient in managing resources than either private individuals or the central government. In advancing this argument, the paper undermines the often dogmatic belief in the universal superiority of private forms of ownership and management.     

Quality assessment of composts in the Greek market: the need for standards and quality assurance

An extensive data survey and study of the Greek market for composts or products marketed as such was carried out in order to acquire a comprehensive image of the local situation, in view of the proposed operation of large municipal solid waste (MSW) composting facilities and EU legislation changes. Physical and chemical parameters (moisture, organic matter, electrical conductivity, pH and heavy metals), stability indicators (self-heating potential, germination index) and biological indicators (microbial population, pathogen indicators and selected pathogens) were analyzed for the assessment of product quality. Results revealed wide variations even within the same group of products, which is particularly significant for parameters directly related to environmental protection and public health. The heavy metal content ranged from levels exceeding the fairly lenient Greek standards to below the stringent limits for A+ class compost in Austria. About 25% of the composts examined met the heavy metal limits for the EU eco-label award. Salmonella spp. was not detected in any of the composts but Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridium perfringens were found in 17 and 96% of the composts respectively. Pathogen indicator microorganisms were present at levels above suggested limits in all the composts. The high variability of such important parameters in composts available on the Greek market suggests an urgent need for establishing quality assurance procedures and mechanisms in the country. Moreover, the wide range of limit values within EU member states suggests the need for developing EU compost quality standards, in order to harmonize the compost markets.     

Preliminary Evidence for Pollen as an Indicator of Recent Floodplain Accumulation Rates and Vegetation Changes: The Barmah-Millewa Forest, SE Australia

Eucalyptus forest; and in the composition of understorey herbs, sedges, and grasslands. Pollen concentration and charcoal and organic content also exhibit post-European changes. Thus, pollen analysis provides a technique for determining changes in sediment budgets and identifying major vegetation changes in floodplains.