Interactions between cod, herring and sprat in the changing environment of the Baltic Sea: A dynamic model analysis

The interactions between cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Central Baltic Sea were examined with a simple dynamic model, an alternative to more complicated and data-demanding multispecies and ecosystem models. The main aims of the study were to compare the effect of alternative structures on the model output and examine the control relationships in the fish assemblage under different environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions was modelled using a stock-recruitment equation for cod incorporating an environmental index. The model output was especially sensitive to the functional response in predation by cod on herring and sprat. The type II functional response led to a collapse of the clupeid stocks when cod was abundant, while the type III response produced more realistic stock dynamics. According to the simulations, an abundant cod stock was able to keep the sprat stock at a low level, while the herring stock was less affected and benefited from the decreased density of sprat. Simulation of different fishing scenarios indicated that reducing fishing mortality to the level currently advised by ICES would allow the recovery of the cod stock even in unfavourable environmental conditions.     

基于土地转移矩阵的生态服务功能研究——以南京市仙林新市区为例

以南京市仙林新市区为例,运用土地转移矩阵方法分析土地利用变化,并采用专家打分法和层次分析法对生态服务功能进行分类评价,对其结果进行空间化表达,分析土地利用变化对生态服务功能的影响。结果表明:(1)2003—2013年仙林新市区耕地和水体面积大量减少,而建设用地、密集型草地和裸地面积大量增加。土地利用类型变化主要体现在耕地、水体向建设用地、密集型草地和裸地的转移。(2)区域生态服务功能整体降低,但生态服务功能改变程度具有空间异质性,西北部和中部的大部分区域生态服务功能降低程度高,而东南部小部分区域降低程度低。(3)耕地、有林地和水体向建设用地的转移是造成生态服务功能降低的主要原因,其作用程度达到70%以上。