Best linear unbiased estimators for the simple linear regression model using ranked set sampling

When sample observations are expensive or difficult to obtain, ranked set sampling is known to be an efficient method for estimating the population mean, and in particular to improve on the sample mean estimator. Using best linear unbiased estimators, this paper considers the simple linear regression model with replicated observations. Use of a form of ranked set sampling is shown to be markedly more efficient for normal data when compared with the traditional simple linear regression estimators.     

Evaluating predictive errors of a complex environmental model using a general linear model and least square means

A general linear model (GLM) was used to evaluate the deviation of predicted values from expected values for a complex environmental model. For this demonstration, we used the default level interface of the regional mercury cycling model (R-MCM) to simulate epilimnetic total mercury concentrations in Vermont and New Hampshire lakes based on data gathered through the EPAs Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (REMAP). The response variable for the GLM was defined as R-MCMs predictive error: the difference between observed mercury concentrations and modeled mercury concentrations in each lake. Least square means of the response variable are used as an estimate of the magnitude and significance of bias, i.e., a statistically discernable trend in predictive errors for a given lake type, e.g., acidic, stratified, or oligotrophic. Using our approach, we determined lake types where significant over-prediction and under-prediction of epilimnetic total mercury concentration was occurring, i.e., regions in parameter space where the model demonstrated significant bias was distinguished from regions where no significant bias existed. This technique is most effective for finding regions of parameter space where bias is significant. Drawing conclusions concerning regions that show no significant bias can be misleading. The significant interaction terms in the GLM demonstrated that addressing this problem using univariate statistical techniques would lead to a loss of important information.     

Changes in chromium distribution during the electrodialytic remediation of a Cr (VI)-contaminated soil

A laboratory study has been carried out to determine the feasibility of in situ remediation of chromium (VI)-contaminated soil using electrodialysis in relation to its speciation in soil. This technique is best suited for low-permeability soils or sediments, which may be difficult to remediate by other means and implies the application of a low-intensity direct current to the soil, which is separated from the electrode compartments by ion-exchange membranes. A clayey soil was prepared for use in the experiments and was characterized before being mixed with a solution of potassium dichromate for several days to produce a final Cr content of 4,056 mg/kg of soil dry wt. Remediation tests were carried out under constant-voltage conditions for periods of 7–14 days and the evolution of applied current to the cell, pH, and conductivity of the electrolytes were recorded periodically. Fractionation of chromium was determined for soil samples before and after remediation using a standardized four-step sequential extraction procedure (SEP) with acetic acid, hydroxylamine, hydrogen peroxide, and aqua regia solutions. Results show that chromium is mobilized from the most labile phases (soluble/exchangeable/carbonate). In a 15 V test, SEP results show that the amount of chromium extracted in the first step drops from 80% to 9%, but also that changes in the total chromium distribution occur during the treatment with some transferred to other soil phases that are more difficult to mobilize.     

江苏沿海化工快速发展下区域生态风险评价模型研究

区域生态风险评价是区域建立生态风险预警机制,实现有效生态风险管理的基础,而其中区域生态风险评价模型的构建是关键。本研究在分析江苏沿海化工风险源及危害性、风险受体以及风险相应能力的基础上,根据科学性、可操作性、动态性与静态性相结合、定性与定量相结合以及因地制宜的原则,选取代表性强、表征明显、简明且易于统计量化的要素和因子,在传统数学模式的基础上,运用系统动力学、景观生态学以及GIS分析、引入区域化工风险压力、化工园区风险度、区域环境敏感指数等指数,采用Delphi、AHP法构建了包括化工风险压力指数、区域环境状态指数、区域生态风险管理指数的区域化工生态风险的多指标综合评价模型。建立的评价模型为研究区域尺度政策实施的生态风险状态及发展趋势提供了一种思路。     

An ecological risk assessment model for a pulsed contaminant emission into a wetland channel flow

As a continuation of the modelling on ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion of pollutant emission into an idealized two-dimensional free-surface wetland flow (Zeng, L., Chen, G.Q., 2009b. Ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion of contaminant in wetland. Ecol. Model., doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.024), an ecological risk assessment model for the typical case of a pulsed contaminant emission into a realistic three-dimensional wetland channel flow is presented in this paper for the fate of cross-sectional mean concentration under environmental dispersion. An environmental dispersion model for the mean concentration is devised as an extension of Taylor’s classical analysis on dispersion in fluid flows. The velocity distribution and the environmental dispersivity in the fully developed steady flow through the wetland is found and illustrated with limiting cases covering various known solutions for the porous media flow between parallel plates, flow in a shallow wetland, sweeping flow in a densely vegetated wetland, and single phase flow in a channel. Obtained by Aris’s method of moments, the environmental dispersivity is shown characterized with multi-scale asymptotic time variations with stem dominated stage, transitional stage, and width-depth-stem dominated stage. Based on the solution for the evolution of contaminant cloud in the wetland channel flow, critical length and duration of the contaminant cloud with concentration beyond given environmental standard level are concretely illustrated for typical pollutant constituents in wastewater emission. Under the same emission intensity and environmental standard, the duration of contaminant cloud in the wetland channel is revealed shorter than that in a free surface wetland, due to the lateral effect.     

Soil lead (Pb) in residential transects through Lubbock,Texas: a preliminary assessment

Residential lead (Pb) contamination, resulting from decades-long use of leaded gasoline and lead-based paint, is likely to be present in soils in most urban areas. A screening level sampling effort demonstrated that Lubbock, Texas, USA, like other cities of its age and size, has areas of elevated soil Pb. This effort was based on soil sampling performed on residential, commercial and thoroughfare properties. The focus of this study was to investigate that component of soil contamination due to combustion of leaded gasoline. Soils were collected from the 1–2 cm surface layer from street-side property borders, well away from buildings that might lead to soil contamination from leaded paint chips. All samples were analyzed for Pb after a 1 M HNO₃ mild extraction to determine the amount of bioavailable Pb. Two of three transects through the city demonstrated significant trends of decreasing Pb concentrations with distance from the city center, paralleling a decrease in developed property age. Peak soil Pb concentrations outside city development was 4.9 ± 0.6 mg/kg while the median concentration for the city was 35.4 mg/kg. Peak soil Pb concentrations in the city center ranged from 90.0 to 174.0 mg/kg and decreased exponentially to 6.0–9.0 mg/kg at the furthest terminus of the residential transects.     

An individual-oriented model for ecological risk assessment of wading birds

The contribution of certain contaminants to reproductive failure in many avian species has been an ongoing concern. Appropriate quantitative techniques have focused either on the individual organisms by providing explicit bioaccumulation dynamics or on whole ecosystems by looking at the fate of the contaminant but fail to make the necessary link via population dynamics of interacting individuals. We used the individual-oriented approach in an effort to quantify effects of chronic contaminant exposure on individual birds. This was made possible by the use of an object-oriented model, where individual birds are interacting objects, and their actions are implemented by passing to them appropriate messages. Using this modeling approach a breeding colony of Great Blue Herons (Ardea herodias) is simulated as an assemblage of interacting individuals whose daily actions (foraging, growth, feeding of the young) are simultaneously followed over short time intervals for a nesting season. Spatial distribution of the contaminants in prey resources is used on a cell by cell basis and their effects on certain behavior characteristics of adult birds (e.g. foraging efficiency, effects on flying efficiency, parental care) are taken into account. Results showed that sublethal effects could have a considerable effect on colony success. Appropriate selection of endpoints for risk assessment yields a variety of scenarios for colony success.     

Identification and mapping of heavy metal pollution in soils of a sports ground in Galway City,Ireland, using a portable XRF analyser and GIS

Heavy metals in urban soils continue to attract attention because of their potential long-term effects on human health. During a previous investigation of urban soils in Galway City, Ireland, a pollution hotspot of Pb, Cu, Zn and As was identified in the sports ground of South Park in the Claddagh. The sports ground was formerly a rubbish dumping site for both municipal and industrial wastes. In the present study, a portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) analyser was used to obtain rapid in-situ elemental analyses of the topsoil (depth: about 5–10 cm) at 200 locations on a 20 × 20-m grid in South Park. Extremely high values of the pollutants were found, with maximum values of Pb, Zn, Cu and As of 10,297, 24,716, 2224 and 744 mg/kg soil, respectively. High values occur particularly where the topsoil cover is thin, whereas lower values were found in areas where imported topsoil covers the polluted substrate. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were applied to the dataset to create elemental spatial distribution maps, three-dimensional images and interpretive hazard maps of the pollutants in the study area. Immediate action to remediate the contaminated topsoil is recommended to safeguard the health of children who play at the sports ground.     

Viral metagenomics: a new and complementary tool for environmental quality assessment

Metagenomic sequencing of nucleic acids from environmental or other complex samples can be successfully used as a powerful tool for environmental quality assessment. Being a culture-independent approach, it does not rely on the presence or absence of specific organisms or genes, and can even identify novel organisms. When focused on viruses, metagenomics can help to shed light on their involvement in ecosystem functioning, due to their dependence on their hosts and their ability to respond quickly to environmental changes. Moreover, viral metagenomics can show the impact of contamination on different natural ecosystems, highlighting putative sources and potential pathogens.     

Crustacean habitat potential mapping in a tidal flat using remote sensing and GIS

To make a macrofaunal (crustacean) habitat potential map, the spatial distribution of ecological variables in the Hwangdo tidal flat, Korea, was explored. Spatial variables were mapped using remote sensing and a geographic information system (GIS) combined with field observations. A frequency ratio (FR) and logistic regression (LR) model were employed to map the macrofauna potential area for the Ilyoplax dentimerosa, a crustacean species. Spatial variables affecting the tidal macrofauna distribution were selected based on abundance and biomass and used within a spatial database derived from remotely sensed data of various types of sensors. The spatial variables included the intertidal digital elevation model (DEM), slope, distance from a tidal channel, tidal channel density, surface sediment facies, spectral reflectance of the near infrared (NIR) bands and the tidal exposure duration. The relation between the I. dentimerosa and each spatial variable was calculated using the FR and LR. The species was randomly divided into a training set (70%) to analyse habitat potential using FR and LR and a test set (30%) to validate the predicted habitat potential map. The relations were overlaid to produce a habitat potential map with the species potential index (SPI) value for each pixel. The potential habitat maps were compared with the surveyed habitat locations such as validation data set. The comparison results showed that the LR model (accuracy is 85.28%) is better in prediction than the FR (accuracy is 78.96%) model. The performance of models gave satisfactory accuracies. The LR provides the quantitative influence of variables on a potential habitat of species; otherwise, the FR shows the quantitative influence of a class in each variable. The combination of a GIS-based frequency ratio and logistic regression models and remote sensing with field observations is an effective method to determine locations favorable for macrofaunal species occurrences in a tidal flat.     

应用物种敏感性分布法分析太湖及天目湖水体的生态风险

采用物种敏感性分布法(SSDs法),应用水生生物急性和慢性毒性数据计算了31种污染物在水中和其中疏水物质在沉积物中的预测无效应浓度(PNECwater和PNECsed),通过收集以往报道的16种污染物在太湖和天目湖的环境浓度,用商值法求得物质的风险商并进行排序.结果发现:蒽、菲、萘、荧蒽、阿特拉津和马拉硫磷在太湖的梅梁湾和五里湖具有很大的生态风险;毒死蜱、三丁基锡氧化物和环己锡虽无环境浓度报道但很有可能具有风险.     

Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies

Forest fires play a critical role in landscape transformation, vegetation succession, soil degradation and air quality. Improvements in fire risk estimation are vital to reduce the negative impacts of fire, either by lessen burn severity or intensity through fuel management, or by aiding the natural vegetation recovery using post-fire treatments. This paper presents the methods to generate the input variables and the risk integration developed within the Firemap project (funded under the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology) to map wildland fire risk for several regions of Spain. After defining the conceptual scheme for fire risk assessment, the paper describes the methods used to generate the risk parameters, and presents proposals for their integration into synthetic risk indices. The generation of the input variables was based on an extensive use of geographic information system and remote sensing technologies, since the project was intended to provide a spatial and temporal assessment of risk conditions. All variables were mapped at 1 km² spatial resolution, and were integrated into a web-mapping service system. This service was active in the summer of 2007 for semi-operational testing of end-users. The paper also presents the first validation results of the danger index, by comparing temporal trends of different danger components and fire occurrence in the different study regions.     

Using geospatial business intelligence paradigm to design a multidimensional conceptual model for efficient coastal erosion risk assessment

One of the main challenges in Coastal Erosion Risk Assessment (CERA) is integrating and analysis of conflicting data in various time periods and spatial scales through dissimilar environmental, social, and economic criteria. Currently, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are widely used in risk assessment despite their drawbacks and limitations as transactional systems for multi-scales, multi-epochs, and multi-themes analysis. Hence, an analytical conceptual framework is proposed in this paper based on geospatial business intelligence paradigm to develop a Spatial Multidimensional Conceptual Model (SMCM) to assess coastal erosion risk. The model is designed based on Spatial On-Line Analytical Processing (SOLAP) platform, on the top of both analytical and transactional paradigms, to allow fast synthesis of cross-tabulated data and easy comparisons over space, scales, epochs, and themes. This objective is achieved through a comprehensive integration of multiple environmental, social, and economic criteria as well as their interactions at various scales. It also takes into account multiple elements at risk such as people, infrastructure, and built environment as different dimensions of analysis. Using this solution allows decision makers to benefit from on-demand, interactive, and comprehensive information in a way that is not possible using GIS alone. The developed model can easily be adapted for any other coastal region through the proposed framework to perform risk assessment. The advantages and drawbacks of the proposed framework are also discussed and new research perspectives are presented.     

Influence of complexation on lead(II) and cadmium(II) percolation through a clay liner

Wastes are usually stocked in waste disposals without any pre-treatment. Runoff waters lead to the formation of leachates containing mineral and organic pollutants. In order to prevent groundwater contamination, a double barrier is placed on the landfill bottom. The first one is an active barrier made up of a draining system and a geomembrane, and the second one, consisting of a clay liner allowing pollutant retention, is considered as a passive system. The aim of this work is to evaluate the complexation impact on the organic and inorganic retention. Percolations on columns filled with clay are performed, which allow a better knowledge of the transfer of metallic pollutants, complexed or not, through a model porous media, considering charge and conditional stability of complexes.     

钢铁工业区周边农业土壤中多环芳烃(PAHs)残留及评价

对某大型矿业企业周边农业土壤中多环芳烃(PAHs)残留量进行了调查。结果表明,PAHs总残留量范围为312. 2~27 580. 9ng·g-1,且以4环以上多环芳烃组分为主。所有土样中均检出PAHs,单一污染物以芘、艹屈、荧蒽、苯并[a]芘、蒽、菲、苯并[a]蒽、苯并[k]荧蒽、茚并[1,2,3 cd]芘、苯并[g,h,i]苝为主。PAHs残留量与有机质含量相关性较好。不同样区土壤PAHs残留量受常年风向影响明显。以加拿大农业区域土壤PAHs的治理标准值为指标,用内梅罗综合指数法进行评价表明,研究区农业土壤达重污染水平的占37%,中度污染的占19%,轻污染的占25%,另有13%的采样点污染程度处于警戒限,仅有6%的采样点尚处于安全级。     

Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model

There are presently few tools available for estimating epidemic risks from forest pathogens, and hence informing pro-active disease management. In this study we demonstrated that a bioclimatic niche model can be used to examine questions of epidemic risk in temperate eucalypt plantations. The bioclimatic niche model, CLIMEX, was used to identify regional variation in climate suitability for Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), a major cause of foliage damage in temperate eucalypt plantations around the world. Using historical observations of MLD damage, we were able to convert the relative score of climatic suitability generated by CLIMEX into a severity ranking ranging from low to high, providing for the first time a direct link between risk and impact, and allowing us to explore disease severity in a way meaningful to forest managers. We determined that the ‘Compare Years’ function in CLIMEX could be used for site-specific risk assessment to identify severity, frequency and seasonality of MLD epidemics. We explored appropriate scales of risk assessment for forest managers. Applying the CLIMEX model of MLD using a 0.25° or coarser grid size to areas of sharp topographic relief frequently misrepresented the risk posed by MLD, because considerable variation occurred between individual forest sites encompassed within a single grid cell. This highlighted the need for site-specific risk assessment to address many questions pertinent to managing risk in plantations.     

外来有害生物风险评估技术

概述了有害生物风险分析的概念、必要性、生物学基础和一般程序 ;论述了生态气候图、农业气候相似距库、生态气候评价的分析模型、地理信息系统、专家系统、基于定性分析与定量估算相结合的数学模型等有害生物风险分析技术的原理和特点 ;认为应用网络技术 ,建立基于分布式计算的全球入侵物种风险评价数据体系 ,可有效提高风险评价的速度和准确性。     

Multiple-time contamination of benzo(a)pyrene in soils inhibits soil enzymatic activities

Benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) is accumulating in soils in a low-dose cumulative manner. The objectives of this study were to investigate the effects of B[a]P on the extractable and available fractions of B[a]P and on soil enzymatic activity using multiple-time superimposed and one-time contamination approaches. Results showed that the contents of B[a]P rapidly decreased in the first 14?d and later decreased slowly from 14 to 56?d in both one-time and multiple-time contamination tests. The contents of B[a]P in the multiple-time contamination test were lower than those in the one-time test. Soil urease, sucrase and dehydrogenase activities were rapidly inhibited in the early stage (14?d) and stimulated during the rest of the incubation, and soil dehydrogenase activity was more sensitive to B[a]P contamination than the other enzymes. High concentrations of B[a]P in soil led to greater inhibition of enzymatic activity than that at low concentrations in the early period of culture. Soil enzyme activities were weakly inhibited in multiple-time compared with in one-time contamination tests and were lower in the subsurface layer than in the surface layer. Our results revealed that the multiple-time superimposed approach might be better than one-time contamination for evaluating B[a]P risk in soil.     

Assessment of relative bioavailability of heavy metals in soil using in vivo mouse model and its implication for risk assessment compared with bioaccessibility using in vitro assay

There is limited study to simultaneously determine the relative bioavailability of heavy metals such as Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr(VI), and Ni in soil samples. In the present study, the bioaccessibility of heavy metals using in vitro assay was compared with the relative bioavailability of heavy metals using in vivo mouse model. The bioaccessibility of heavy metals ranged from 9.05 ± 0.97 % (Cr) to 42.8 ± 3.52 % (Cd). The uptake profile of heavy metals in soil and solution samples in mouse revealed that the uptake kinetics could be fitted to a two-compartment model. The relative bioavailability of heavy meals ranged from 34.8 ± 7.0 % (Ni) to 131 ± 20.3 % (Cu). Poor correlation between bioaccessibility and relative bioavailability of heavy metals was observed (r ² = 0.11, p > 0.05). The relative bioavailability of heavy metals was significantly higher than the bioaccessibility of heavy metals (p < 0.05). The present study indicated that the in vitro digestion method should be carefully employed in risk assessment.     

基于盲数的水体沉积物潜在生态风险评价方法

基于生态风险评价系统中多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的特性,将盲数理论应用于水体沉积物潜在生态风险的评价研究。在将Hakanson潜在生态风险指数模型参数定义为盲参数的基础上,建立了沉积物潜在生态风险评价的盲数模型,并提出了污染程度和潜在生态风险等级识别盲数可靠性计算模型。根据上述盲数模型,不仅可以得到沉积物污染程度和潜在生态风险的可能取值区间,也可以得到各区间相应的可信度水平,进而定量计算待评价对象隶属于各评价等级的主观可能性大小。作为案例,将上述模型应用于巢湖十五里河河口沉积物中重金属潜在生态风险评价的研究。在得到沉积物中单个重金属污染物(Hg,Cd,Pb,Cu,Cr)隶属于污染程度各等级和潜在生态风险各等级可信度水平的基础上,得出十五里河河口处于较高生态风险水平的结论,相应的可信度为0.626。实例研究表明,以盲数理论评价沉积物的潜在生态风险,理论上可行,评价结论可信。