Lake of flies, or lake of fish? A trophic model of Lake Malawi

Ecosystem-focused models have, for the first time, become available for the combined demersal and pelagic components of a large tropical lake ecosystem, Lake Malawi. These provide the opportunity to explore continuing controversies over the production efficiencies and ecological functioning of large tropical lakes. In Lake Malawi these models can provide important insight to the effect of fishing on fish composition, and the potential competition that the lakefly Chaoborus edulis may have with fisheries production. A mass-balanced trophic model developed for the demersal fish community of the southern and western areas of Lake Malawi was integrated with an existing trophic model developed for the open-water pelagic. Input parameters for the demersal model were obtained from a survey of fish distributions, fish food consumption studies, and from additional published quantitative and qualitative information on the various biotic components of the community. The model was constructed using the Ecopath approach and software. The graphically presented demersal food web spanned four trophic levels and was based primarily on consumption of detritus, zooplankton and sedimented diatoms. Zooplankton was imported into the system at trophic levels three and four through fish predation on carnivorous and herbivorous copepods and Chaoborus larvae. It is proposed that the primary consumption of copepods was by fish migrating into the pelagic zone. Chaoborus larvae in the demersal were probably consumed near the lakebed as they conducted a daily migration from the pelagic to seek refuge in the sediments. This evidence for strong benthic-pelagic coupling provided the opportunity for linking the demersal model to the existing model for the pelagic community so producing the first model for the complete ecosystem. Energy fluxes through the resulting combined model demonstrated that the primary import of biomass to the demersal system was detritus of pelagic origin (72.1%) and pelagic zooplankton (10.6%). Only 15.8% of the biomass consumed within the demersal system was of demersal origin. Lakefly production is efficiently utilised by the lake fish community, and any attempt to improve fishery production through introduction of a non-native plantivorous fish species would have a negative impact on the stability and productivity of the lake ecosystem.     

Evaluation and application of a three-dimensional water quality model in a shallow lake with complex morphometry

Fundamental hydrodynamic and ecological processes of a lake or reservoir could be adequately depicted by one-dimensional (1D) numerical simulation models. Whereas, lakes with significant horizontal water quality and hydrodynamic gradients due to their complex morphometry, inflow or water level fluctuations require a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamics and ecological analyses to accurately simulate their temporal and spatial dynamics. In this study, we applied a 3D hydrodynamic model (ELCOM) coupled with an ecological model (CAEDYM) to simulate water quality parameters in three bays of the morphologically complex Lake Minnetonka. A considerable effort was made in setting up the model and a systematic parameterization approach was adopted to estimate the value of parameters based on their published values. Model calibration covered the entire length of the simulation periods from March 29 to October 20, 2000. Sensitivity analysis identified the top parameters with the largest contributions to the sensitivity of model results. The model was next verified with the same setup and parameter values for the period of April 25 to October 10, 2005 against field data. Spatial and temporal dynamics were well simulated and model output results of water temperature (T), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP) and one group of algae (Cyanobacteria) represented as chlorophyll a (Chla) compared well with an extensive field data in the bays. The results show that the use of the model along with an accurate bathymetry, a systematic calibration and corroboration (verification) process will help to analyze the hydrodynamics and geochemical processes of the morphologically complex Lake Minnetonka. An example of an ecological application of the model for Lake Minnetonka is presented by examining the effect of spatial heterogeneity on coolwater fish habitat analysis in 3D and under a scenario where horizontal spatial heterogeneity was eliminated (1D). Both analyses captured seasonal fish habitat changes and the total seasonal averages differed moderately. However, the 1D analysis did not capture local and short duration variabilities and missed suitable fish habitat variations of as much as 20%. The experiment highlighted the need for a 3D analysis in depicting ecological hot spots such as unsuitable fish habitats in Lake Minnetonka.     

Foodweb modeling for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the Twelvemile Creek Arm of Lake Hartwell,South Carolina,USA

PCBs from the Sangamo-Weston Superfund Site near Clemson, South Carolina, USA, were released into the Twelvemile Creek Arm of Lake Hartwell until the early 1990s. Monitoring data have shown that while PCB concentration in sediments declined since 1995, PCB concentrations in fish have remained elevated, e.g., largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) concentrations have ranged from 5 to 10 ppm. The EPA aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX was applied to this system to better characterize foodweb dynamics that lead to biomagnification of PCBs. The model was calibrated with observed fish biomass data. Simulated PCB loading over a 12-year period provided a reasonable fit to observed PCB data in fish. The model demonstrated that contaminated labile detritus loaded to the system was incorporated into the foodweb rather than deposited, thereby maintaining the PCB concentrations in fish while concentrations in the sediment declined. A dominant PCB pathway was from detritus to daphnia to shad to largemouth bass. Fish PCB concentrations showed moderate sensitivity to toxicant parameters; model runs incorporating uncertainty in these parameters predicted recovery (<2 ppm PCB) for all species in the range of years from 2008 to 2013. The high sensitivity of the model to parameters related to growth strongly affected PCB concentrations in fish and should be considered in future AQUATOX applications.     

生理毒代动力学模型及其在有机污染物水生生态毒理研究中的应用

人类生产和生活使用各种人工合成的化学品,种类和数量急剧增长,对生态系统和人体健康造成了极大威胁。因此,亟需采用高效的方法对数量巨大的化合物进行毒性评价。对生理毒代动力学(PBTK)模型的建立过程及其在污染物生态毒理研究中的应用进行了综述。PBTK模型,又称生理药代动力学(PBPK)模型,是利用生理学和解剖学等原理,将生物体简化为用血流连接的肝、肾和脂肪等各组织器官房室,模拟化合物在生物体内的吸收、分布、代谢和排泄过程。模型参数包括生理参数和生化参数2个部分,可用MATLAB等软件进行模拟。模型已应用于数百余种有机污染物在鱼体等水生生物体的毒代动力学模拟。已有模拟结果能够预测化合物在生物体内的有效剂量,对化合物毒性进行评估,并可用于不同物种、不同剂量和不同暴露途径间的外推,有力推进了污染物生态毒理研究工作的开展。     

A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model

Aedes albopictus has been the fastest spreading invasive animal species in the world from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. In areas it infests, it disrupts native mosquito ecology and can potentially vector up to 21 viruses. To better understand the population dynamics of this species, we created a temperature dependent population model. A stage-structured model was chosen to allow each life-stage to have different temperature dependent mortality and development rates, and each stage was modeled with an ordinary differential equation. Model parameters and distributions were based upon literature values. Initially, a basic model was constructed. This model then had parameters that were forced based upon daily average temperatures. Several criteria were used to evaluate the model, including a comparison to field data from Lubbock, TX. In a stochastic version of the model, a 95% confidence limit contained 70.7% of the field data points. Based upon these results, we feel reasonably confident that we have captured the role of temperature in driving the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus.     

Toxic effects of copper and zinc mixtures on some haematological and biochemical parameters in common carp, Cyprinus carpio (Linn)

The effect of heavy metals and mixture were studied on some haematological and biochemical parameters in fish, Cyprinus carpio at sublethal level over the period of 30 days. Heavy metal significantly decreased total RBC count, haemogoblin, heamatocrit (Hct) (except copper after 10 days exposure). The WBC count was increased significantly in all the treated fish. The MCH, MCHC, MVC were increased depending upon the exposure period; declined PVC was noticed at 1% level of significance after 30 days on all the treated fish. Serum level of chloride and calcium content were increased where as serum glucose, cholesterol and total serum protein were decreased significantly. The alteration in haematological and biochemical parameters shows more toxic in mixture after 30 days, showed more than 'addition action' of the individual toxicant.     

Connectivity or demography: Defining sources and sinks in coral reef fish metapopulations

The identity of an individual patch as a source or a sink within a metapopulation is a function of its ability to produce individuals and to disperse them to other patches. In marine systems patch identity is very often defined by dispersal ability alone—upstream patches are sources—while issues of variable habitat quality (which affects local production) are ignored. This can have important ramifications for the science of marine reserve siting. This study develops a spatially explicit source–sink metapopulation model for reef fish and uses it to evaluate the relative importance of connectivity versus demography and how this depends upon the level of local larval retention and the strength of density-dependent recruitment. Elasticity analyses indicated that patch contribution (source or sink) was more sensitive to demographic parameters (particularly survival) than connectivity and this effect was conserved even under strong levels of density-dependence and was generally strengthened as local retention increased. Variability in the relationship between parameter elasticity and local retention was shown to be dependent upon the magnitude of connectivity for an individual patch relative to a critical connectivity value. The proportion of larvae lost due to transport processes was an important parameter which directly affected the magnitude of this critical connectivity value. Patches with connectivity values less than the critical value contributed to the metapopulation largely via production (i.e., local demographics most important). As local retention increased, so did the importance of demographic parameters in these patches. Patches with connectivity values greater than the critical value contributed largely via dispersal of larvae and thus the importance of local demographics decreased as local retention increased.     

Identifying fishing trip behaviour and estimating fishing effort from VMS data using Bayesian Hidden Markov Models

Recent advances in technologies have lead to a vast influx of data on movements, based on discrete recorded position of animals or fishing boats, opening new horizons for future analyses. However, most of the potential interest of tracking data depends on the ability to develop suitable modelling strategies to analyze trajectories from discrete recorded positions. A serious modelling challenge is to infer the evolution of the true position and the associated spatio-temporal distribution of behavioural states using discrete, error-prone and incomplete observations. In this paper, a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (HBM) using Hidden Markov Process (HMP) is proposed as a template for analyzing fishing boats trajectories based on data available from satellite-based vessel monitoring systems (VMS). The analysis seeks to enhance the definition of the fishing pressure exerted on fish stocks, by discriminating between the different behavioural states of a fishing trip, and also by quantifying the relative importance of each of these states during a fishing trip. The HBM approach is tested to analyse the behaviour of pelagic trawlers in the Bay of Biscay. A hidden Markov chain with a regular discrete time step is used to model transitions between successive behavioural states (e.g., fishing, steaming, stopping (at Port or at sea)) of each vessel. The parameters of the movement process (speed and turning angles) are defined conditionally upon the behavioural states. Bayesian methods are used to integrate the available data (typically VMS position recorded at discrete time) and to draw inferences on any unknown parameters of the model. The model is first tested on simulated data with different parameters structures. Results provide insights on the potential of HBM with HMP to analyze VMS data. They show that if VMS positions are recorded synchronously with the instants at which the process switch from one behavioural state to another, the estimation method provides unbiased and precise inferences on behavioural states and on associated movement parameters. However, if the observations are not gathered with a sufficiently high frequency, the performance of the estimation method could be drastically impacted when the discrete observations are not synchronous with the switching instants. The model is then applied to real pathways to estimate variables of interest such as the number of operations per trip, time and distance spent fishing or travelling.     

Predicting barrier passage and habitat suitability for migratory fish species

Fish migrate to spawn, feed, seek refuge from predators, and escape harmful environmental conditions. The success of upstream migration is limited by the presence of barriers that can impede the passage of fish. We used a spatially explicit modeling strategy to examine the effects of barriers on passage for 21 native and non-native migratory fish species and the amount of suitable habitat blocked for each species. Spatially derived physical parameter estimates and literature based fish capabilities and tolerances were used to predict fish passage success and habitat suitability. Both the fish passage and the habitat suitability models accurately predicted fish presence above barriers for most common, non-stocked species. The fish passage model predicted that barriers greater than or equal to 6 m block all migratory species. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) was expected to be blocked the least. The habitat suitability model predicted that low gradient streams with intact habitat quality were likely to support the highest number of fish species. The fish passage and habitat suitability models were intended to be used by environmental managers as strategy development tools to prioritize candidate dams for field assessment and make decisions regarding the management of migratory fish populations.     

Natural and anthropogenic influences on the diversity structure of reef fish communities in the Tuamotu Archipelago (French Polynesia)

Despite the rapid rate of human-induced species losses, the relative influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the functional diversity of species assemblages remains unknown for most ecosystems. A model was previously developed to predict the diversity structure of coral reef fish assemblages in 10 atolls of low human pressure and contrasting morphology of the Tuamotu Archipelago (French Polynesia). This existing model predicted smoothed histograms (spectra) of species richness according to size classes, diet classes and life-history classes of fish assemblages using a combination of environmental characteristics at different spatial scales. The present study applied the model to Tikehau, another atoll of the same archipelago where commercial fishing is practiced and where the same sampling strategy was reproduced. Significant differences appeared between predicted and observed species richness in several size, diet and life-history classes of fish assemblages in Tikehau. Two parameters which were not accounted for in the initial model, i.e. fishing pressure and atoll position within the archipelago, explained together 63% of variance in model residuals, >60% being explained by fishing pressure only. The respective effects of fishing and atoll position on the diversity of coral reef fish assemblages are discussed, with the potential of such modelling approach to assess the relative importance of factors affecting functional diversity within communities.     

A multidimensional continuum model of fish behavior

A numerical model for the simulation and study of fish behavior is presented. The model, based on continuous representations in both biological and spatial dimensions, has been developed as part of a large Norwegian arctic ecosystems modeling project directed by Professor Jens G. Balchen of the University of Trondheim, Norway. The model describes the migratory behavior of fish, and is capable of incorporating a variety of hypothesized driving forces, such as food density, temperature, light, direction and magnitude of ocean currents, and local fish density. The model relies on standard finite difference numerical methods for solution of the continuum transport equations, and a gradient search conceptualization to determine fish taxis. Two driving forces, food and temperature fields, are used to provide a demonstration of the potentials of the proposed modeling methodology.     

Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems

Fishing mortality and primary production (or proxy for) were used to drive the dynamics of fish assemblages in 9 trophodynamic models of contrasting marine ecosystems. Historical trends in abundance were reconstructed by fitting model predictions to observations from stock assessments and fisheries independent survey data. The model fitting exercise derives values for otherwise unknown parameters that specify the relative strength of trophic interactions and, in some instances, a time series anomaly for changes in primary production. We measured how much better or worse were model predictions when bottom-up forcing by primary production were added to top-down forcing by fishing. Searching for cross system patterns, the relative contribution of fishing and changes in primary production, mediated through trophic interactions, are evaluated for the ecosystems as a whole and for selected similar species in different ecosystems. The analysis provides a simple qualitative way to explain which forcing factors have most influence on modeled dynamics. Both fishing and primary production forcing were required to obtain the best model fits to data. Fishing effects more strongly influenced 6 of 9 of the ecosystems, but primary production was more often found to be the main factor influencing the selected pelagic and demersal fish stock trends. Examination of sensitivity to ecological and model parameters suggests that the results are the product of complex food-web interactions rather than simple deterministic responses of the models.     

Fishing the line near marine reserves in single and multispecies fisheries.

Throughout the world "fishing the line" is a frequent harvesting tactic in communities where no-take marine reserves are designated. This practice of concentrating fishing effort at the boundary of a marine reserve is predicated upon the principle of spillover, the net export of stock from the marine reserve to the surrounding unprotected waters. We explore the consequences and optimality of fishing the line using a spatially explicit theoretical model. We show that fishing the line: (1) is part of the optimal effort distribution near no-take marine reserves with mobile species regardless of the cooperation level among harvesters; (2) has a significant impact on the spatial patterns of catch per unit effort (CPUE) and fish density both within and outside of the reserve; and (3) can enhance total population size and catch simultaneously under a limited set of conditions for overexploited populations. Additionally, we explore the consequences of basing the spatial distribution of fishing effort for a multispecies fishery upon the optimality of the most mobile species that exhibits the greatest spillover. Our results show that the intensity of effort allocated to fishing the line should instead be based upon more intermediate rates of mobility within the targeted community. We conclude with a comparison between model predictions and empirical findings from a density gradient study of two important game fish in the vicinity of a no-take marine-life refuge on Santa Catalina Island, California (USA). These results reveal the need for empirical studies to account for harvester behavior and suggest that the implications of spatial discontinuities such as fishing the line should be incorporated into marine-reserve design.     

Trophic food web and ecosystem attributes of a water reservoir of the Ria Formosa (south Portugal)

Using a top-down modelling approach, a balanced trophic food web model of a water reservoir of the Ria Formosa lagoonal system was constructed. Few adjustments of input data were necessary to run the model since most of the parameters were estimated at the study site and the characteristics of the water reservoir allowed a high degree of control and precision in terms of sampling and data collection. Trophic levels of the 14 compartments included in the model varied between 1.0 for primary producers and detritus to 3.4 for carnivorous fish and the 14 groups were aggregated in a food chain with six trophic levels. The water reservoir has a detritus based food chain, with the majority of the biomass concentrated in the first two levels, the producers level and the herbivore/detritivore level (97.6%). The transfer efficiencies were low, and decreased with increasing level number, varying between 6.0 and 0.2%. The degree of “ecosystem maturity” was difficult to establish, but several parameters indicate that it could be high. The water reservoir studied, which has similar environmental and ecological characteristics as the Ria Formosa lagoon, is near its carrying capacity.     

Estimation of scavenger abundance and distance of attraction to bait

Patterns of arrival, times of first arrival on bait, and instantaneous numbers of animals on bait may be used to estimate abundance and distance of attraction for scavenging species of fish and invertebrates. A simple Gaussian odour plume model, which takes into account the rate of odour production by bait, chemosensory threshold of scavengers, swimming speed of scavengers relative to current velocity, and satiation time, was used. Scavengers are assumed to be stationary and randomly or evenly distributed prior to detecting odour, and presumably respond immediately to odour. Calculations with the model are made with new and published data for various fish and the parameters and assumptions which are critical to the model.     

Integration of a fish bioenergetics model into a spatially explicit water quality model: Application to menhaden in Chesapeake Bay

Although fish are usually thought of as victims of water quality degradation, it has been proposed that some planktivorous species may improve water quality through consumption of algae and sequestering of nutrients via growth. Within most numerical water quality models, the highest trophic level modeled explicitly is zooplankton, prohibiting an investigation of the effect a fish species may be having on its environment. Conversely, numerical models of fish consumption do not typically include feedback mechanisms to capture the effects of fish on primary production and nutrient recycling. In the present study, a fish bioenergetics model is incorporated into CE-QUAL-ICM, a spatially explicit eutrophication model. In addition to fish consumption of algae, zooplankton, and detritus, fish biomass accumulation and nutrient recycling to the water column are explicitly accounted for. These developments advance prior modeling efforts of the impact of fish on water quality, many of which are based on integrated estimates over an entire system and which omit the feedback the fish have through nutrient recycling and excretion. To validate the developments, a pilot application was undertaken for Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) in Chesapeake Bay. The model indicates menhaden may reduce the algal biomass while simultaneously increasing primary productivity.     

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network. However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow.     

Impact of aquacultures on the marine ecosystem: Modelling benthic carbon loading over variable depth

In order to be used within Environmental Impact Assessment study, we have developed a three-dimensional particle tracking model for prediction of benthic carbon loading (BCL) caused by fish farms. The model is based on stochastic differential equations for particle transport consistent with the well-known semi-empirical advection/diffusion equation. It requires only easily obtainable input data in the form of measured current record, the source location and a specification of local bathymetry. The model accounts for advection by long-term residual and tidal currents, turbulent diffusion, realistic bathymetry and variations in daily (monthly or yearly) emissions from fish farm.Here, we concentrate on the changes in sedimentation pattern caused by various bathymetric shapes. Examination of idealized cases reveals where and why we can expect the worst impact on benthic communities. For future reference, these results will be included into guidelines for fish farming.     

A simulation model for Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) migrations in the western North Pacific

A two-dimensional individual-based model coupled with fish bioenergetics was developed to simulate migration and growth of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific. In the model, fish movement is controlled by feeding and spawning migrations with passive transport by simulated ocean current. Feeding migration was assumed to be governed by search for local optimal habitats, which is estimated by the spatial distribution of net growth rate of a sardine bioenergetics model. The forage density is one of the most important factors which determines the geographical distributions of Japanese sardine during their feeding migrations. Spawning migration was modeled by an artificial neural network (ANN) with an input layer composed of five neurons that receive environmental information (surface temperature, temperature change experienced, current speed, day length and distance from land). Once the weight of the ANN was determined, the fish movement was solved by combining with the feeding migration model. To obtain the weights of the ANN, three experiments were conducted in which (1) the ANN was trained with back propagation (BP) method with optimum training data, (2) genetic algorithm (GA) was used to adjust the weights and (3) the weights of the ANN were decided by the GA with BP, respectively. BP is a supervised learning technique for training ANNs. GA is a search technique used in computing to find approximate solutions, such as optimization of parameters. Condition factor of sardine in the model is used as a factor of optimization in the GA works. The methods using only BP or GA did not work to search the appropriate weights in the ANN for spawning migration. In the third method, which is a combined approach of GA with BP, the model reproduced the most realistic spawning migration of Japanese sardine. The changes in temperature and day length are important factors for the orientation cues of Japanese sardine according to the sensitivity analysis of the weights of the ANN.     

Bayesian estimation of kinetic rate constants in a food-web model of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon bioaccumulation

Water, sediments, fish and other biota were sampled from fixed stations along bayous in the LaBranche Wetlands of Louisiana as part of an environmental contamination study in 1996 and 1997. In order to understand the biological fate of some of these contaminants, a spotted gar (Lepisosteus oculatus) food-web model was developed from site-specific data and established bioaccumulation modeling assumptions. Based on gut contents analysis, the gar were found to feed on terrestrial arthropods, a variety of small fish, aquatic insects, crayfish and grass shrimp. A Bayesian approach (a hierarchical model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation) was used to estimate the kinetic rate constants of uptake from water, dietary uptake and total elimination for the food-web model using site-specific measurements of naphthalene, phenanthrene, and benzanthracene concentrations, reference literature inputs, and a hierarchical statistical model. This iterative simulation method resulted in a distribution of the parameters for each chemical comprised of the last 3000 values from four separate Markov Chains of length 15,000–25,000 iterations. The posterior parameter values were found to be consistent with rate constants published in the literature for various fish species, and were used to determine distributions of predicted gar PAH concentrations.