Modeling ecosystem responses to prescribed fires in a phosphorus-enriched Everglades wetland: I. Phosphorus dynamics and cattail recovery

We have developed and applied a process-based model, the Wetland Ecosystem Model (WEM), to evaluate the effects of a prescribed fire on the phosphorus (P) dynamics and cattail (Typha domingensis) growth in a P-enriched area in the Florida Everglades. The WEM couples major ecosystem processes including carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and P biogeochemical cycles, plant growth, hydrology, and fire disturbance. The model is used to assess the effects of a prescribed fire on P dynamics and cattail growth through dynamic interaction among four modules: fire, water chemistry, soil, and vegetation. The simulation results are in agreement with observed data including cattail above- and belowground biomass and dead mass, P concentration in surface-water, pore-water, and soil, and soil and water temperature. Cattail aboveground biomass reached the unburned level one year after burn; belowground biomass recovered to unburned level one and half years after the fire, however, dead mass did not completely reach unburned level two years after fires. The fire increased water and soil temperatures in the short term, while indirectly increasing the sensitivity of water and soil temperature post-fire response to air temperature by altering the energy exchange between air and water through a canopy gap created by fire. The fire also altered the P dynamics in surface-water and pore-water. A post-fire P pulse that lasted for less than one month was observed in surface-water. A similar P pulse, but in a small magnitude and a longer duration, was also observed in the pore-water total phosphorus (TP), and then came back to normal level after approximately three months. No significant changes in soil TP was observed during the study period. Meanwhile, no significant changes in water nutrients were observed downstream of the study plot. This finding indicated that the P-enriched wetlands in Everglades act as a buffer in regulating the P concentration in surface-water. Our study showed that the distance of fire effects on a 300 m × 300 m plot was less than 300 m downstream. Sensitivity analysis identified that the air temperature and hydrological conditions are two important driving factors which may alter the cattail community dynamics in response to prescribed fires. Similar to the filed studies, this study provided evidences that fire played an important role in managing plant growth and P dynamics in the Florida Everglades.     

Rapid assessment of postfire plant invasions in coniferous forests of the western United States.

Fire is a natural part of most forest ecosystems in the western United States, but its effects on nonnative plant invasion have only recently been studied. Also, forest managers are engaging in fuel reduction projects to lessen fire severity, often without considering potential negative ecological consequences such as nonnative plant species introductions. Increased availability of light, nutrients, and bare ground have all been associated with high-severity fires and fuel treatments and are known to aid in the establishment of nonnative plant species. We use vegetation and environmental data collected after wildfires at seven sites in coniferous forests in the western United States to study responses of nonnative plants to wildfire. We compared burned vs. unburned plots and plots treated with mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning vs. untreated plots for nonnative plant species richness and cover and used correlation analyses to infer the effect of abiotic site conditions on invasibility. Wildfire was responsible for significant increases in nonnative species richness and cover, and a significant decrease in native cover. Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire fuel treatments were associated with significant changes in plant species composition at some sites. Treatment effects across sites were minimal and inconclusive due to significant site and site x treatment interaction effects caused by variation between sites including differences in treatment and fire severities and initial conditions (e.g., nonnative species sources). We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine what combinations of environmental variables best explained patterns of nonnative plant species richness and cover. Variables related to fire severity, soil nutrients, and elevation explained most of the variation in species composition. Nonnative species were generally associated with sites with higher fire severity, elevation, percentage of bare ground, and lower soil nutrient levels and lower canopy cover. Early assessments of postfire stand conditions can guide rapid responses to nonnative plant invasions.     

Combined effect of fire and water scarcity on vegetation patterns in arid lands

In many arid zones around the word, the vegetation spontaneously forms regular patterns to optimize the use of the scarce water resources. The patterns act as early warning signal that fragile ecosystems may suddenly undergo irreversible shifts, thus, interpreting the structural shape of vegetation patterns is crucial to deciphering the ecosystem history and its expected further development. The sudden and irreversible shift of delicate ecosystems as a consequence of minor variation of the climatic forcing has been studied extensively in the past. The attitude of the ecosystem to recover after a catastrophic event, such as fire, did not receive as much attention so far. Here we modelled fire, as a sudden shift of the ecosystem state variables and functionality and evaluated post-fire scenarios under the hypothesis that two major feedbacks shaped the vegetation patterns: a positive feedback between preferential infiltration and plant growth, and a second feedback between infiltration and vegetation burning. A simple model solving a set of partial differential equations for soil moisture, plant biomass, surface water and dead biomass balance predicted significantly diverse post-fire vegetation patterns depending on the fire severity and on the degree of soil water repellency induced by the vegetation burning.     

Simulating the effects of frequent fire on southern California coastal shrublands.

Fire disturbance is a primary agent of change in the mediterranean-climate chaparral shrublands of southern California, USA. However, fire frequency has been steadily increasing in coastal regions due to ignitions at the growing wildland-urban interface. Although chaparral is resilient to a range of fire frequencies, successively short intervals between fires can threaten the persistence of some species, and the effects may differ according to plant functional type. California shrublands support high levels of biological diversity, including many endangered and endemic species. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-term effects of altered fire regimes on these communities. A spatially explicit simulation model of landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) was used to predict the effects of frequent fire on the distribution of dominant plant functional types in a study area administered by the National Park Service. Shrubs dependent on fire-cued seed germination were most sensitive to frequent fire and lost substantial cover to other functional types, including drought-deciduous subshrubs that typify coastal sage scrub and nonnative annual grasses. Shrubs that resprout were favored by higher fire frequencies and gained in extent under these treatments. Due to this potential for vegetation change, caution is advised against the widespread use of prescribed fire in the region.     

Climatic Change, Wildfire, and Conservation

Abstract:  Climatic variability is a dominant factor affecting large wildfires in the western United States, an observation supported by palaeoecological data on charcoal in lake sediments and reconstructions from fire-scarred trees. Although current fire management focuses on fuel reductions to bring fuel loadings back to their historical ranges, at the regional scale extreme fire weather is still the dominant influence on area burned and fire severity. Current forecasting tools are limited to short-term predictions of fire weather, but increased understanding of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific Ocean (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) may improve our ability to predict climatic variability at seasonal to annual leads. Associations between these quasi-periodic patterns and fire occurrence, though evident in some regions, have been difficult to establish in others. Increased temperature in the future will likely extend fire seasons throughout the western United States, with more fires occurring earlier and later than is currently typical, and will increase the total area burned in some regions. If climatic change increases the amplitude and duration of extreme fire weather, we can expect significant changes in the distribution and abundance of dominant plant species in some ecosystems, which would thus affect habitat of some sensitive plant and animal species. Some species that are sensitive to fire may decline, whereas the distribution and abundance of species favored by fire may be enhanced. The effects of climatic change will partially depend on the extent to which resource management modifies vegetation structure and fuels.     

水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失的研究进展

水文因素为农田氮磷元素的迁移提供了动力和载体,对稻田氮磷元素的流失具有重要影响。利用新型的稻田水分管理模式以代替传统的水分管理模式,对于有效控制面源污染具有重要意义。在综合调研国内外已有研究成果和最新进展的基础上,阐述了稻田氮磷流失特征、传统水分管理模式的弊端,并从新型稻田水分管理模式的种类、削减氮磷流失的效果与机理、与水平衡模型、营养负荷模型等结合应用等几个方面综述了国内外水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失的研究现状。进行稻田土壤吸附氮磷容量及人工调节机制的研究,在部分地区开展流域化水分管理系统研究,以及适用于我国稻田的水平衡模型和营养负荷模型的建立和深入研究应为今后我国关于水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失方面研究的一些方向。     

Modelling the effect of fire-exclusion and prescribed fire on wildfire size in Mediterranean ecosystems

There is a debate on which factor, fuel accumulation or meteorological variability, is the fundamental control of the occurrence of large fires in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Its resolution has important management implications, because if the fuel hypothesis proves to be right, then fire-exclusion would enhance the occurrence of large wildfires, and prescribed-fires would be a useful tool to fight them. On the other hand, if large fires were just a direct consequence of some extreme weather situations, neither fire-exclusion nor prescribed fire would have any influence on the size of wildfires. Here we present a simple model of vegetation dynamics and fire spread over homogeneous areas intended to treat quantitatively this issue. In particular, we wanted to address the following questions: (1) What is the effect that different fire fighting capacities have on the total area burnt and, especially, on large fires? (2) What is the effect that different levels of prescribed fire have on the area burnt in wildfires and, especially, in large fires? The model incorporates meteorological variability, different rates of fuel accumulation, number of ignitions per year, fire-fighting capacity, and prescribed burning. The model was calibrated with fire regime data (mean fire size, annual area burnt, and fire size distribution) of Tarragona (NE Spain) and Coimbra (Central Portugal), and it accurately reproduced both data sets, while allowing for multiple behavioural models and prediction uncertainties within the GLUE methodology. Results showed that for a given region, with its particular characteristics of climate, number of ignitions, and vegetation flammability, there was a fairly constant annual area burnt for different fire-fighting capacities. However, higher fire-fighting capacities resulted in a slightly higher proportion of large fires. There was also a quite constant annual area burnt (prescribed and wild fires together) for different prescribed fire intensities in each region. However, the total amount and proportion of large fires decreased as the prescribed burning intensity increased. So, according to the model, it seems that the total area burnt will be more or less the same despite any effort to reduce it by extinguishing fires or by using prescribed burning. Nevertheless, the effect of the fire exclusion policy slightly enhances the dominance of large fires, whereas the use of prescribed fires greatly reduces the importance of large fires.     

N biogeochemistry and cycling in two well-drained savannas: a comparison between the Orinoco Basin (Llanos,Venezuela) and Ivory Coast (western Africa)

When a savanna burns, a decline in the input of organic matter and nutrients to the soil occurs. However, the existence of recurrent fires is a natural condition and N depletion by fire is not incompatible with the existence of savannas per se. Consequently, savanna vegetations have evolved under fires, implying a near to steady-state N budget. In some Australian and African ecosystems, N fixation appears to be insufficient to replace losses inducing soil-N depletion, whereas in neotropical Llanos and western African savannas, the N-fixation and precipitation seem to be enough to maintain production despite fires. This review presents information about well-drained savannas, namely Trachypogon savannas in Orinoco Llanos and Andropogonae savannas in Ivory Coast. The sites present similarities in climate and fire regime differing in soil parent material. A report on N budgets is presented. The budget was positive, since losses seem to be balanced by inputs in rainfall and biological fixation. Uncertainties in flux measures indicate that more work on those aspects are required. Results indicate that the estimated amounts of dinitrogen fixation and deposition seem to be enough to maintain plant production. Data support the hypothesis that the vegetation in the natural savanna has evolved under fire constraint.     

Simulation of the Effect of Spatial and Temporal Variation in Fire Regimes on the Population Viability of a Banksia Species

Populations of plants that rely on seeds for recovery from disturbance by fire (obligate seeders) are sensitive to regimes of frequent fire. Obligate seeders are prominent in fire-prone heathlands of southern Australia and South Africa. Population extinction may occur if there are successive fires during a plant's juvenile period. Research on the population biology of obligate seeders has influenced the management of fire in these heath and shrublands, but work on the effects of the spatial variability of fires is lacking. We hypothesize that extinction maybe avoided under an adverse fire frequency if fires are patchy. We present a model that simulates the effects of spatial and temporal variations in fire regimes on the viability of a plant population in a grid landscape. Seedling establishment, maturation, senescence, and seed dispersal determine the presence or absence of plants in each cell. We used values typical of serotinous Banksia species to estimate probability of extinction in relation to fire frequency and size. We examined the sensitivity of predictions to dispersal, senescence, fire frequency, spatial burning pattern and size variance, and the size of the grid. Simulations 200 years in length indicated that extinction probability was lowest when mean fire frequency was intermediate and mean fire size was large. When fire frequency was high, extinction probability was high irrespective of fire size. Senescence was more important than high-frequency fire as a cause of extinction in cells. Interactions between dispersal, fire frequency, and size were complex, indicating that extinction is governed by intercell connectivity. The model indicates that fire patchiness cannot be assumed to ensure avoidance of extinction of populations. Conservation of populations is most likely when fire patchiness is relatively low—when the size of fires is moderate to large and when burned patches are contiguous.     

Fire Regime Changes in La Michilía Biosphere Reserve, Durango, Mexico

Abstract: The ability of reserves to maintain natural ecosystem processes such as fire disturbance regimes is central to long-term conservation. Fire-scarred tree samples were used to reconstruct fire regimes at five study sites totaling approximately 230 ha in pine (   Pinus spp.) and oak ( Quercus spp.) forests of La Michilía Biosphere Reserve on the dry east slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango, Mexico. Study sites covered a 20-km environmental gradient of elevation, topography, and human land uses. Plant communities ranged from oak-pine to mixed conifer forests. Fires were frequent at all sites prior to 1930, when large-scale grazing of domestic livestock was initiated. Widespread fires have been excluded from four of the five sites since 1945, with an essentially uninterrupted regime of frequent fires continuing only in the reserve core. Xeric sites had many, smaller fires, whereas mesic sites had fewer but larger fires. On a reserve-wide scale, a fire burned on at least one site nearly every year, usually in the dry spring or early summer season, but fire years were rarely synchronous among the sites. Fire occurrence was weakly related to the Southern Oscillation climate pattern; major reserve-wide fire years almost never coincided with wet Southern Oscillation extremes but only occasionally matched dry extremes. Maintenance of the long-term frequent-fire regime in the reserve core is one indicator that the biosphere reserve model has been successful in conserving natural processes, but the protected area is small ( 7000 ha). Because of the key role of frequent-fire regimes in regulating ecosystem structure and function, restoration of the ecological role of fire disturbance is a desirable conservation strategy.     

Organic and inorganic phosphorus uptake by bacteria in a plug-flow microcosm

Phosphorus (P) is a vital nutrient for sustaining natural water productivity. Both particulate and dissolved forms of organic and inorganic P are potentially important sources of bioavailable P for primary and secondary producers. A microcosm system to imitate the bacterial community in Plym river sediment and pore water is described and bacterial uptake rates for inorganic and organic phosphorus are presented in this paper. The aim of this study was to investigate the uptake of two organic phosphorus compounds (phytic acid and D-glucose-6-phosphate) by freshwater bacteria. The bioreactors comprise glass columns packed with two types of small glass beads on which bacterial biofilm can develop. The glass beads with different porosity were introduced to simulate River SPM. The selected P compounds spiked into the inflow of the microcosm, and measured the step change of P concentration in the outflow to investigate the behavior of bacterial uptake of nutrients. The results showed that organic phosphorus was converted into inorganic phosphorus but the conversion rate depended on the type of phosphorus species. One experiment suggested that phytic acid (refractory) could displace phosphate from the biofilm surface; the other experiment showed that D-glucose-6-phosphate (labile) could be hydrolysed and utilized easily by the bacteria. The results also suggested that bacteria might break down the C-P bonds to utilize the carbon. Further experiments should investigate the effect of varying the C:N:P ratio in the microcosm system to determine which nutrient limits bacteria uptake.     

初春苦草腐解过程中营养盐释放过程及规律

采用室内模拟方法研究初春温度条件下苦草在腐解过程中碳、氮和磷的释放过程,研究沉水植物衰亡过程中营养盐的释放规律.结果表明,在初春温度条件下,苦草迅速腐解,向水体释放大量碳、氮和磷.随着时间的推移,苦草向水体释放的磷大部分沉积进入底泥,而氮则是部分沉积进入底泥,部分以气体形式移出水体.苦草腐烂分解产生的厌氧条件和大量有机碳的供给促进了水体反硝化作用并加快氮素移出水体.较大的生物残留量会引起水体缺氧,同时产生大量营养盐,导致水质严重恶化,因此需要适时收割水生植物来控制水体残留生物量.     

Grass feedbacks on fire stabilize savannas

Savannas commonly consist of a discontinuous cover of overstory trees and a groundcover of grasses. Savanna models have previously demonstrated that vegetation feedbacks on fire frequency can limit the density of overstory trees, thereby maintaining savannas. Positive feedbacks of either savanna trees alone or trees and grasses together on fire frequency have been shown to result in a stable savanna equilibrium. Grass feedbacks on fire frequency, in contrast, have resulted in stable equilibria in either a grassland or forest state, but not in a savanna. These results, however, were derived from a system of differential equations that assumes that fire occurrence is strictly deterministic and that vegetation losses due to fire are continuous in time. We develop an alternative formulation of the grass-fire feedback model that assumes that fires are discrete and occur stochastically in time to examine the influence of these assumptions on the predicted state of the system. We show that incorporating fire as a discrete event can produce a recurring temporal refuge in which both grass and trees co-occur in a stable, bounded savanna. In our model, tree abundance is limited without invoking demographic bottlenecks in the transition from fire-sensitive to fire-resistant life history stages. An increasing strength of grass feedback on fire results in regular, predictable fires, which suggests that the system can also be modeled using a set of difference equations. We implement this discrete system using modified Leslie/Gower difference equations and demonstrate the existence of a bounded savanna state in this model framework. Our results confirm the potential for grass feedbacks to result in stable savannas, and indicate the importance of modeling fire as a discrete event rather than as a loss rate that is continuous in time.     

A Hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot: Implications of weather variability and global circulation

In this study we combined an extensive database of observed wildfires with high-resolution meteorological data to build a novel spatially and temporally varying survival model to analyze fire regimes in the Mediterranean ecosystem in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa during the period 1980-2000. The model revealed an important influence of seasonally anomalous weather on fire probability, with increased probability of fire in seasons that are warmer and drier than average. In addition to these local-scale influences, the Antarctic Ocean Oscillation (AAO) was identified as an important large-scale influence or teleconnection to global circulation patterns. Fire probability increased in seasons during positive AAO phases, when the subtropical jet moves northward and low level moisture transport decreases. These results confirm that fire occurrence in the CFR is strongly affected by climatic variability at both local and global scales, and thus likely to respond sensitively to future climate change. Comparison of the modelled fire probability between two periods (1951-1975 and 1976-2000) revealed a 4-year decrease in an average fire return time. If, as currently forecasted, climate change in the region continues to produce higher temperatures, more frequent heat waves, and/or lower rainfall, our model thus indicates that fire frequency is likely to increase substantially. The regional implications of shorter fire return times include shifting community structure and composition, favoring species that tolerate more frequent fires.     

Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II

Fire regimes result from reciprocal interactions between vegetation and fire that may be further affected by other disturbances, including climate, landform, and terrain. In this paper, we describe fire and fuel extensions for the forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, that allow dynamic interactions among fire, vegetation, climate, and landscape structure, and incorporate realistic fire characteristics (shapes, distributions, and effects) that can vary within and between fire events. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new extensions using two case study examples with very different ecosystem characteristics: a boreal forest system from central Labrador, Canada, and a mixed conifer system from the Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA). In Labrador, comparison between the more complex dynamic fire extension and a classic fire simulator based on a simple fire size distribution showed little difference in terms of mean fire rotation and potential severity, but cumulative burn patterns created by the dynamic fire extension were more heterogeneous due to feedback between fuel types and fire behavior. Simulations in the Sierra Nevada indicated that burn patterns were responsive to topographic features, fuel types, and an extreme weather scenario, although the magnitude of responses depended on elevation. In both study areas, simulated fire size and resulting fire rotation intervals were moderately sensitive to parameters controlling the curvilinear response between fire spread and weather, as well as to the assumptions underlying the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. Potential fire severity was more variable within the Sierra Nevada landscape and also was more sensitive to the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. The fire modeling approach described here should be applicable to questions related to climate change and disturbance interactions, particularly within locations characterized by steep topography, where temporally or spatially dynamic vegetation significantly influences spread rates, where fire severity is variable, and where multiple disturbance types of varying severities are common.     

Effect of sheep grazing and fire on sage grouse populations in southeastern Idaho

This paper describes the development, evaluation, and use of a model that simulates the effect of grazing and fire on temporal and spatial aspects of sagebrush community vegetation and sage grouse population dynamics. The model is represented mathematically as a discrete-time, stochastic compartment model based on difference equations with a time interval of 1 week. In the model, sheep graze through sage grouse breeding habitat during spring and fall, and different portions of the area can burn at different frequencies, creating a habitat mosaic of burned and unburned areas.The model was evaluated by examining predictions of (1) growth of sagebrush canopy cover after fire, (2) seasonal dynamics of grass and forb biomass under historical environmental conditions, and (3) sage grouse population dynamics associated with selected sagebrush canopy covers. Simulated changes in sagebrush canopy cover following fire correspond well with qualitative reports of long-term trends, simulated seasonal dynamics of herbaceous biomass correspond well with field data, and simulated responses of sage grouse population size and age structure to changing sagebrush canopy cover correspond well to qualitative field observations.Simulation results suggest that large fires occurring at high frequencies may lead to the extinction of sage grouse populations, whereas fires occurring at low frequencies may benefit sage grouse if burned areas are small and sheep grazing is absent. Sheep grazing may contribute to sage grouse population decline, but is unlikely to cause extinction under fire regimes that are favorable to sage grouse.     

Phosphorus speciation and effects of environmental factors on release of phosphorus from sediments obtained from Taihu Lake,Tien Lake,and East Lake

Phosphorus is considered the primary nutrient limiting eutrophication. The release of phosphorus from sediments not only provides hydrophytes with essential nutrients, but can also produce entrophication in lakes. In this study, the sediment characteristics, phosphorus speciation, and environmental factors affecting phosphorus release from sediments from Taihu Lake, Tien Lake, and East Lake were investigated. The results indicated that phosphorus levels of sediments ranged from 647 ± 67 to 2343 ± 122 mg/kg. Inorganic phosphorus comprised the majority of total phosphorus. The main phosphorus speciation of sediments obtained from Taihu Lake and Tien Lake was Residual-P, and the main phosphorus speciation of sediment obtained from East Lake was NaOH-P. Phosphorus release occurred in acidic and alkaline conditions but more frequently under alkaline conditions. The amount of phosphorus released from the sediments increased as the disturbing intensity rose. In addition, less phosphorus was released in natural than anaerobic conditions. The amount of phosphorus released was elevated as temperature increased.     

Testing a pyroclimatic hypothesis on the Mexico-United States border

The "pyroclimatic hypothesis" proposed by F. Biondi and colleagues provides a basis for testable expectations about climatic and other controls of fire regimes. This hypothesis asserts an a priori relationship between the occurrence of widespread fire and values of a relevant climatic index. Such a hypothesis provides the basis for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence based on climatic control. Forests near the Mexico-United States border offer a place to test the relative influence of climatic and other controls in mountain ranges that are ecologically similar and subject to broadly similar top-down climatic influence, but with differing cultural influences. We tested the pyroclimatic hypothesis by comparing fire history information from the Mesa de las Guacamayas, a mountain range in northwestern Chihuahua, with previously published fire data from the Chiricahua Mountains, in southeastern Arizona, approximately 150 km away. We developed a priori hypothetical models of fire occurrence and compared their performance to empirical climate-based models. Fires were frequent at all Mesa de las Guacamayas study sites through the mid-20th century and continued uninterrupted to the present at one site, in contrast to nearly complete fire exclusion after 1892 at sites in the Chiricahua Mountains. The empirical regression models explained a higher proportion of the variability in fire regime associated with climate than did the a priori models. Actual climate-fire relationships diverged in each country after 1892. The a priori models predicted continuing fires at the same rate per century as prior to 1892; fires did in fact continue in Mexico, albeit with some alteration of fire regimes, but ceased in the United States, most likely due to changes in land use. The cross-border comparison confirms that a frequent-fire regime could cease without a climatic cause, supporting previous arguments that bottom-up factors such as livestock grazing can rapidly and drastically alter surface fire regimes. Understanding the historical patterns of climate controls on fire could inform the use of historical data as ecological reference conditions and for future sustainability.     

Modelling the interactions between nutrients and the submersed vegetation in the Orbetello Lagoon

The main problem in the Orbetello Lagoon is the control of the submersed vegetation, both in biomass and inventory, to manage a problematical coexistence between macroalgae and macrophytes. While macroalgae are liable to cause dystrophic crises, macrophytes oxygenate and stabilise the sediment and thus control the nutrient flux into the water. A mathematical model was required by the Orbetello Lagoon Managerial Office to predict the development of both groups and test the actions to favour macrophytes over macroalgae, in the context of a decision support system. This model, developed for this need, takes into account the interactions between nutrients and the submersed vegetation in a 2D spatial context including a hydrodynamic model for the water movements and an ecological model describing the interactions between nutrients and the submersed vegetation. In the spatial grid the model operates with two interlocked modules: each cell implements the kinetics of nutrients, vegetation and their interactions, running on an hourly basis to keep track of the circadian cycles, whereas an advection/diffusion mechanism running on a daily basis exchanges information among all the grid cells. The model output consists of daily variations in nutrient concentrations and vegetation biomass showing the relative abundance of either group as a consequence of environmental conditions. After a sensitivity assessment, the model has been calibrated with data from the Orbetello Lagoon, where it can now be used as a forecasting tool to predict the development of vegetation and the relative advantage that macrophytes may have upon macroalgae.     

Human influence on California fire regimes.

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.