农业生态经济系统生态效益综合评价方法探讨

根据系统思想和生态学原理，探讨了农业生态经济系统的生态效益和功能的定量评价方法，并给出了相应的计算规则，同时还阐述了这一方法在广西壮族自治区来宾县的实际应用。     

论农业生态经济系统的良性循环

本文通过对理论界一个常异常新的问题-农业生态经济系统良性循环的概念的探讨，揭示出介于良性循环与恶性循环之间的“过渡循环”是两者相互转化的枢纽；并依此为基础，阐述了农业生态经济系统良性循环的十大特征，分析了这一系统实现良性循环的基本条件。     

生态农业系统综合效益评价研究动态与展望

总结了国内外生态农业发展和生态农业系统生态经济评价体系及评价的方法，阐述了生态农业综合效益评价的特点及国内外研究的最新动态。提出土壤健康在农业持续发展评价中的重要性。最后指出了生态-经济系统整合模型在建立生态农业最优化模式中的应用前景。     

农业生态系统循环功能的综合评价（Ⅰ）：方法

根据扩展的全息理论，从人体血液循环功能与农业生态系统循环功能的全息关系出发，确定了影响农业生态系统循环功能的５个基本要素：作物单产，复种指数，饲料的浪费度，畜禽转化率和循环总量，并将人体血液循环的计算公式应用于农业生态系统，建立了描述系统循环过程中动力与阻力相互关系的数学模型。     

生态影响评价中生境评价方法

生态影响评价是环境影响评价的重要分支，生境评价方法是生态影响证件 主要方法。美国是较早开展生态影响评价的国家，发展了一批生境评价方法。本文系统介绍了美国两种最常用的生境评价方法－生境评价系统和生境评价程序，并简要对比介绍其它方法，为我国开展生态影响评价提供一定理论参考。     

论全球生态经济系统的不可持续性——基于农业生态系统承载力视角

运用3种方法预测的作物产量潜力分别为：（1）利用作物历年单产回归拟合后进行趋势外推,得出多数作物的未来产量潜力极限大约将是现在单产的2～3倍;（2）运用＂国际应用系统研究所＂（IIASA）与＂联合国粮农组织＂（FAO）共同开发的＂农业生态区划＂（AEZ）模型计算我国主要粮油作物的区域单产最高潜力,得出水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜和大豆的单产潜力分别是它们2005年全国平均单产的1.2、2.2、2.2、2.9、2.0、1.9倍;（3）运用自然界中植物的最大光能利用率计算世界主要粮油作物单产的光合潜力,得出水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜、大豆产量的最大光合生产潜力大约分别是目前高产地区单产的1.4、2.5、1.2、1.8、1.9、2.2倍。据此：从作物产量潜力极限出发,阐述了农业生态系统的承载力;再从＂封闭＂系统特性出发,论述了全球生态经济系统的不可持续性。人类所能做的是尽力延缓＂终点＂的出现：行动越早,效果越好。     

论农村生态经济系统灾变

本文从灾害的概念及其发展入手，分析了农村生态经济系统发生灾变的原因，提出了减轻或防止农村生态经济系统灾变的有效对策。文章对合理调控农村生态经济系统，实现农村生态经济平衡，防止或减轻农村灾害发生等问题作了比较深入的研究。     

村级农业生态经济系统的结构调控研究——以石辛庄为例

运用生态学原理，从结构元、结构链和结构网3个层次对石辛庄村级农业生态经济系统结构进行调控，并从生态效益、资源利用效益、环境效益和经济效益4个方面对该生态经济系统的调控效果作了评价。     

江苏省建湖县的农业生态经济建设及其效益

本文介绍建湖县以农业生态经济学理论为指导，展开农业生态经济建设的过程，同时较全面介绍了该县多种农业生态经济模式的效益。     

农业技术的综合评价指标初探

为了对农业技术进行推广前景预测或推广后的效益评估，建议采用生物学的合理性、技术的可行性、经济的有利性、生态学的持续性和社会的可接受性作为综合评价的原则．并提出了相应的定量比评价指标体系。     

An approach to evaluation of sustainability for Guangzhou's urban ecosystem

Guangzhou has ambitions to build itself into a world class metropolis by 2010. Sustainable development is the only way to achieve this magnificent goal. Based on the ecological perspective of sustainable development and the principles of ecosystem integrity, this paper develops an approach for evaluation of sustainable development in Guangzhou between 1986 and 1995. A hierarchical evaluation system of four tiers of sustainability indicators was established. Using the method of fuzzy multistage synthetic evaluation, sustainability development level index, QIx, was calculated for the indicators at the B, C, D, and E tiers. Development stages were identified based on these index values. The coordination degree among the economic, social, and natural subsystems was also computed. Further, an overall sustainability index for each year was computed by combining the development level index and the coordination degree. It was found that the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou had generally become more sustainable, in spite of fluctuations in coordination degree. The development level index of the economic subsystem has surpassed that of social and natural subsystems since 1995. Appropriate measures must be taken to ensure coordinated development among the subsystems for the purpose of sustainable development.     

An estimating function approach to the inference of catch-effort models

A class of catch-effort models, which allows for heterogeneous removal probabilities, is proposed for closed populations. The model includes three types of removal probabilities: multiplicative, Poisson and logistic. The usual removal and generalized removal models then become special cases. The equivalence of the proposed model and a special type of capture-recapture model is discussed. A unified estimating function approach is used to estimate the initial population size. For the homogeneous model, the resulting population size estimator based on optimal estimating functions is asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator. One advantage for our approach is that it can be extended to handle the heterogeneous populations in which the maximum likelihood estimators do not exist. The bootstrap method is applied to construct variance estimators and confidence intervals. We illustrate the method by two real data examples. Results of a simulation study investigating the performance of the proposed estimation procedure are presented.     

Quantitative determination of metallothionein-like proteins in mussels. Methodological approach and field evaluation

Electrochemical quantitation of metallothionin-like proteins (MLP) in mussels was based on the determination of their constituent cysteinyl residues according to Brdika's catalytic reaction. Calibration was performed by an internal MLP standard isolated from the digestive gland of Mytilus galloprovincialis for which protein concentration had been estimated by Bradford's spectrophotometric method. For that purpose three metal-binding proteins [MLP-I, MLP-II and Cu-BP (binding protein)] were separated by DEAE-Sephadex A-25 chromatography from the digestive gland of mussels previously exposed to Cd. The most negatively changed MLP-II fraction was characterized by the fact that it contained the largest amount of both total metal and sulphydryl (-SH) content per mass of protein, although this was approximately two times lower than the-SH level of commercially available MT from rabbit liver. Exposure of mussels to a relatively low level of cadmium (0.2 g Cd l^-1) added into the seawater either by itself or as a mixture with other metals (2 g Cu l^-1 and 1.6 g Pb l^-1) resulted in a measurable level of MLP induction within 14 d in comparison to the control specimens. The effect of the metal mixture on MLP synthesis appears to be less than additive, suggesting a competitive interaction between metal ions for uptake and binding sites as well as differing potentials for MLP induction. Variations in the MLP content observed in the digestive gland of mussels seasonally collected from the same location are in the range 2.1±0.4 mg g^-1 on a wet weight basis. The methodological and conceptual aspects of the application of MLP induction in the Mytilus sp. as a biomarker in seawater trace metal monitoring are critically evaluated.     

Coping with complex and dynamic systems. An approach to a transdisciplinary understanding of coastal zone developments

Complexity and uncertainty play important roles in coastal management. Economic development may push the coastal system beyond its resilience thresholds as a result of interactions between environmental and socio-economic processes. The concepts in this paper link processes of system change, natural evolutionary processes observed in coastal zones, to processes of social evolution. An indicator based on calculating an ecological footprint for coastal zones is presented to guide decision-making in spatial and economic planning. The suggested indicator may support a range of methods linking economic valuation and environmental impact analysis.     

An evaluation of three statistical methods used to model resource selection

The performance of statistical methods for modeling resource selection by animals is difficult to evaluate with field data because true selection patterns are unknown. Simulated data based on a known probability distribution, though, can be used to evaluate statistical methods. Models should estimate true selection patterns if they are to be useful in analyzing and interpreting field data. We used simulation techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of three statistical methods used in modeling resource selection. We generated 25 use locations per animal and included 10, 20, 40, or 80 animals in samples of use locations. To simulate species of different mobility, we generated use locations at four levels according to a known probability distribution across DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR) in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, USA. We either generated 5 random locations per use location or 10,000 random locations (total) within 4 predetermined areas around use locations to determine how the definition of availability and the number of random locations affected results. We analyzed simulated data using discrete choice, logistic-regression, and a maximum entropy method (Maxent). We used a simple linear regression of estimated and known probability distributions and area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) to evaluate the performance of each method. Each statistical method was affected differently by number of animals and random locations used in analyses, level at which selection of resources occurred, and area considered available. Discrete-choice modeling resulted in precise and accurate estimates of the true probability distribution when the area in which use locations were generated was ≥ the area defined to be available. Logistic-regression models were unbiased and precise when the area in which use locations were generated and the area defined to be available were the same size; the fit of these models improved with increased numbers of random locations. Maxent resulted in unbiased and precise estimates of the known probability distribution when the area in which use locations were generated was small (home-range level) and the area defined to be available was large (study area). Based on AUC analyses, all models estimated the selection distribution better than random chance. Results from AUC analyses, however, often contradicted results of the linear regression method used to evaluate model performance. Discrete-choice modeling was best able to estimate the known selection distribution in our study area regardless of sample size or number of random locations used in the analyses, but we recommend further studies using simulated data over different landscapes and different resource metrics to confirm our results. Our study offers an approach and guidance for others interested in assessing the utility of techniques for modeling resource selection in their study area.     

Multi-model approach and evaluation of the uncertainty of model results. Rationale and applications to predict the behaviour of contaminants in the abiotic components of the fresh water environment

This work aims at discussing some concepts pertaining to the theory and practice of environmental modelling in view of the results of several model validation exercises performed by the group “Model validation for radionuclide transport in the system watershed-river and in estuaries” of project EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) supported by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The analyses here performed concern models applied to real scenarios of environmental contamination. In particular, the reasons for the uncertainty of the models and the EBUA (empirically based uncertainty analysis) methodology are discussed. The foundations of multi-model approach in environmental modelling are presented and motivated. An application of EBUA to the results of a multi-model exercise concerning three models aimed at predicting the wash-off of radionuclide deposits from the Pripyat floodplain (Ukraine) was described. Multi-model approach is, definitely, a tool for uncertainty analysis. EBUA offers the opportunity of an evaluation of the uncertainty levels of predictions in multi-model applications.     

生态经济系统的一种整合评价方法:能值理论与分析方法

能值理论与分析方法是目前系统生态学和生态经济学发展的新成果，为复合生态系统开拓了一条定量研究途径，是连接生态学和经济学的桥梁。其理论研究与实践应用具有重要的科学意义和应用意义。文章论述了能值分析理论与分析方法的产生背景、过程、主要的基本概念、特点，指出了其需要解决的问题；并以种植业系统为例，简要介绍了能值分析的基本方法和步骤以及能值指标的计算。     

An empirical evaluation of the insurance hypothesis in diversity-stability models

An important stabilizing mechanism in most diversity stability models is the insurance hypothesis, which involves correlation/covariance relationships among species. These models require that species do not fluctuate synchronously over time: that is, the correlation between pairs of species does not equal 1.0. However, the strength of this stabilizing mechanism increases as correlations decline away from 1.0, especially as they become more negative and also as the summed covariance across all species pairs becomes more negative. We evaluated the importance of the insurance hypothesis as a stabilizing mechanism by examining a variety of terrestrial assemblages using long-term data from the Global Population Dynamics Database, the Breeding Bird Survey, and a long-term site in southeastern Arizona, USA. We identified co-occurring assemblages of species and calculated the Spearman rank correlations of all pairs of species and the summed covariance of the entire assemblage. We found that, in most assemblages, positive correlations were two to three times more common than negative and that the magnitude of the positive correlations tended to be stronger than the negative correlations. For all but three assemblages, the summed covariance was positive. Data from larger spatial scales tended to exhibit more positive correlations, but even at the smallest spatial scales, positive correlations outnumbered negative. We suggest that species often covary positively because coexisting species respond similarly to fluctuations in their resource base driven by climatic fluctuations. As such, our review suggests that the insurance hypothesis may not be a strong mechanism stabilizing fluctuations in natural terrestrial communities.