The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.     

Effects of climate and landcover change on stream discharge in the Ozark Highlands,USA

Stream discharge of a watershed is affected and altered by climate and landcover changes. These effects vary depending on the magnitude and interaction of the changes, and need to be understood so that local water resource availability can be evaluated and socioeconomic development within a watershed be pursued and managed in a way sustainable with the local water resources. In this study, the landcover and climate change effects on stream discharge from the Jacks Fork River basin in the Ozark Highlands of the south-central United States were examined in three phases: site observation and data collection, model calibration and simulation, and model experiment and analysis. Major results of the study show that climate fluctuations between wet and dry extremes resulted in the same change of the basin discharge regardless of the landcover condition in the basin. On the other hand, under a specified climate condition landcover change from a grassland basin to a fully forested basin only resulted in about one half of the discharge change caused by the climate variation. Furthermore, when landcover change occurred simultaneously with climate variation, the basin discharge change amplified significantly and became larger than the combined discharge changes caused by the climate and landcover change alone, a result indicating a synergistic effect of landcover and climate change on basin discharge variability. Agricultural Research Division, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Contribution Number 13437.Qi Hu: Corresponding author: Dr. Qi Hu, Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences, 237 L.W. Chase Hall, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728, USA. E-mail: qhu2@unl.edu.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa

The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.     

Predicting climate change effects on surface soil organic carbon of Louisiana,USA

This study aimed to assess the degree of potential temperature and precipitation change as predicted by the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) climate model for Louisiana, and to investigate the effects of potential climate change on surface soil organic carbon (SOC) across Louisiana using the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) and GIS techniques at the watershed scale. Climate data sets at a grid cell of 0.5°?×?0.5° for the entire state of Louisiana were collected from the HadCM3 model output for three climate change scenarios: B2, A2, and A1F1, that represent low, higher, and even higher greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Geo-referenced datasets including USDA-NRCS Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO), USGS Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and the Louisiana watershed boundary data were gathered for SOC calculation at the watershed scale. A soil carbon turnover model, RothC, was used to simulate monthly changes in SOC from 2001 to 2100 under the projected temperature and precipitation changes. The simulated SOC changes in 253 watersheds from three time periods, 2001–2010, 2041–2050, and 2091–2100, were tested for the influence of the land covers and emissions scenarios using SAS PROC GLIMMIX and PDMIX800 macro to separate Tukey-Kramer (p?p?p?p?相似文献   

Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses

Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950–2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950–2005 as a whole. In the period 1971–2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.     

Issues in modeling induced technological change in energy, environmental, and climate policy

This paper addresses the objective of including Induced Technological Change (ITC) in research and policy models of energy, environment, and climate change. Theoretical foundations, fundamentals, and current methodologies for ITC models are reviewed. In addition, limitations and possible extensions to ITC models are explored. Current approaches to energy-environmental modeling that neglect technological characteristics such as heterogeneity, uncertainty, and path-dependence are likely to underestimate both the impact and the lags in the effectiveness of policy options.     

Scientific aspects of the framework convention on climate change and national greenhouse gas inventories

Though the principles of the Earth's greenhouse effect have been known for well over a century, it is only recently that advances in climate research have indicated that significant and possibly costly climate change, due to growing emissions of greenhouse gases and their precursors by human activity, is a real possibility. Current estimates of the global human-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are presented, though many sources remain poorly known or understood. The compilation of national greenhouse inventories as required by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is likely in the longer term to help improve such global estimates, as long as comparable methodologies are used. The development of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is described, emphasizing the strategies employed to gain wide international participation.     

Regional impact analysis of climate change on natural and managed forests in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

A methodology for regional application of forest simulation models has been developed as part of an assessment of possible climate change impacts in the Federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Here we report on the application of a forest gap model to analyse the impacts of climate change on species composition and productivity of natural and managed forests in Brandenburg using a statistical method for the development of climate scenarios. The forest model was linked to a GIS that includes soil and groundwater table maps, as well as gridded climate data with a resolution of 10 × 10 km and simulated a steady-state species composition which was classified into forest types based on the biomass distribution between species. Different climate scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. The simulated forest distribution patterns for current climate were compared with a map of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) of Brandenburg.In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, we used forest inventory data to initialize the model with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with two different management strategies indicated how forest management could respond to the projected impacts of climate change. The combination of regional analysis of natural forest dynamics under climate change with simulation experiments for managed forests outlines possible trends for the forest resources. The implications of the results are discussed, emphasizing the regional differences in environmental risks and the adaptation potentials of forestry in Brandenburg.     

Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA).This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements.Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal.The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA.     

Agent-based integrated assessment modelling: the example of climate change

Current approaches to deal with the socio-economic implications of climate change rely heavily on economic models that compare costs and benefits of different measures. We show that the theoretical foundations underpinning current approaches to economic modelling of climate change are inappropriate for the type of questions that are being asked. We argue therefore that another tradition of modelling, social simulation, is more appropriate in dealing with the complex environmental problems we face today.     

Water quality change in dam reservoir and shallow aquifer: analysis on trend,seasonal variability and data reduction

Change of water quality in dam reservoir and aquifer complicates safe drinking water supply. Few parameters are monitored to control water quality in these sources. Adequate knowledge on the correlation structure, interaction effect, trends and seasonal variability of these parameters is essential to control water quality. This study applied time series and multivariate analyses on 15 water quality parameters, collected from the King Fahd dam reservoir (L1) and aquifer (L2) in Saudi Arabia during April 2010 to February 2012. Moderate to strong correlations were observed between sulfate, hardness, fluoride, chloride, magnesium, conductivity, turbidity and total dissolved solids (TDS), while separate clusters were visible for TDS-chloride-magnesium-conductivity; fluoride-turbidity; chloride-hardness; ammonia-nitrate; and calcium-magnesium-hardness. Four major principal components explained 81.1 % and 83.2 % of the overall variances in L1 and L2, respectively. The factor analysis showed that 53 % and 67 % of the data were necessary to explain 81.3 % and 83.2 % of total variances for L1 and L2, respectively, indicating the possibility of data reduction. Possible degradation of water quality in these sources was highlighted, while such degradation may require enhanced treatment for producing drinking water in future.     

Evaluating climate change effects on water and salt resources in Salt Lake, Turkey using multitemporal SPOT imagery

The main goal of this study is to investigate the dimension of climate change effects in Salt Lake and its vicinity in Turkey using satellite remote sensing data. The first stage of the study includes evaluation of the multitemporal climatic data on the Salt Lake Basin Area, Turkey for a period of 35 years (1970–2005). The changes in mean temperature and precipitation are evaluated for the study area by comparing two periods, 1970–1992 and 1993–2005. In the second stage, the effects of climate changes in the Salt Lake are investigated by evaluating water and salt reserve changes through seasonal and multitemporal SPOT imagery collected in 1987 and 2005. The climatic data and remotely sensed and treated satellite images show that water and salt reserve in Salt Lake has decreased between 1987 and 2005 due to drought and uncontrolled water usage. It is suggested that the use of water supplies, especially underground waters, around the Salt Lake should be controlled and the lake should regularly be monitored by current remote sensing data for an effective management of water and salt resources in the region.     

Hydrology of mountainous areas in the upper Indus Basin, Northern Pakistan with the perspective of climate change

Mountainous areas in the northern Pakistan are blessed by numerous rivers that have great potential in water resources and hydropower production. Many of these rivers are unexploited for their water resource potential. If the potential of these rivers are explored, hydropower production and water supplies in these areas may be improved. The Indus is the main river originating from mountainous area of the Himalayas of Baltistan, Pakistan in which most of the smaller streams drain. In this paper, the hydrology of the mountainous areas in northern Pakistan is studied to estimate flow pattern, long-term trend in river flows, characteristics of the watersheds, and variability in flow and water resource due to impact of climate change. Eight watersheds including Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Astore, Jhelum, Swat, and Chitral, Pakistan have been studied from 1960 to 2005 to monitor hydrological changes in relation to variability in precipitation, temperature and mean monthly flows, trend of snow melt runoff, analysis of daily hydrographs, water yield and runoff relationship, and flow duration curves. Precipitation from ten meteorological stations in mountainous area of northern Pakistan showed variability in the winter and summer rains and did not indicate a uniform distribution of rains. Review of mean monthly temperature of ten stations suggested that the Upper Indus Basin can be categorized into three hydrological regimes, i.e., high-altitude catchments with large glacierized parts, middle-altitude catchments south of Karakoram, and foothill catchments. Analysis of daily runoff data (1960-2005) of eight watersheds indicated nearly a uniform pattern with much of the runoff in summer (June-August). Impact of climate change on long-term recorded annual runoff of eight watersheds showed fair water flows at the Hunza and Jhelum Rivers while rest of the rivers indicated increased trends in runoff volumes. The study of the water yield availability indicated a minimum trend in Shyok River at Yogo and a maximum trend in Swat River at Kalam. Long-term recorded data used to estimate flow duration curves have shown a uniform trend and are important for hydropower generation for Pakistan which is seriously facing power crisis in last 5 years.     

On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change

The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.     

An instrumented station for the survey of ozone and climate change in the southern tropics

The assessment of changes induced by human activities on Earth atmospheric composition and thus on global climate requires a long-term and regular survey of the stratospheric and tropospheric atmospheric layers. The objective of this paper is to describe the atmospheric observations performed continuously at Reunion Island (55.5 degrees east, 20.8 degrees south) for 15 years. The various instruments contributing to the systematic observations are described as well as the measured parameters, the accuracy and the database. The LiDAR systems give profiles of temperature, aerosols and ozone in the troposphere and stratosphere, probes give profiles of temperature, ozone and relative humidity, radiometers and spectrometers give stratospheric and tropospheric integrated columns of a variety of atmospheric trace gases. Data are included in international networks, and used for satellite validation. Moreover, some scientific activities for which this station offers exceptional opportunities are highlighted, especially air mass exchanges nearby dynamical barriers: (1) On the vertical scale through the tropical tropopause layer (stratosphere-troposphere exchange). (2) On the quasi-horizontal scale across the southern subtropical barrier separating the tropical stratospheric reservoir from mid- and high latitudes.