Metallakkumulation in Moosen: Standörtliche und regionale Randbedingungen des Biomonitoring von Luftverunreinigungen

Goal and Scope

Several studies show that the concentration of metals in mosses depends not only on metal deposition but also on factors such as moss species, canopy drip, precipitation, altitude, distance to the sea and the analytical technique used. However, contrasting results have been reported and the interpretation of the spatial variability of the metal accumulation in mosses remains difficult. In the presented study existing monitoring data from the European Heavy Metals in Mosses Surveys together with surface data on precipitation, elevation and land use are statistically analysed to assess factors other than emissions that have an influence on the metal accumulation in the mosses.

Main Features

Inference statistics and Spearman correlation analysis were applied to examine the association of the metal accumulation and the distance of the monitoring sites to the sea as well as the altitude. Whether or not significant differences of the metal loads in the mosses exist at national borders was examined with help of the U-test after Mann and Whitney. In order to identify and rank the factors that are assumed to have an influence on the metal uptake of the mosses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) were applied.

Results

No clear tendency could be derived from the results of the inference statistical calculations and the correlation analyses with regard to the distance of the monitoring site to the sea and the altitude. According to the results of the CART-analyses mainly the moss species, potential emission sources around the monitoring sites, canopy drip and precipitation have an effect on the metal bioaccumulation. Assuming that each participating country followed strictly the manual for sampling and sample preparation the results of the inference statistical calculations furthermore suggest that in most cases different techniques for digestion and analysis bias the measurements significantly.

Discussion

For the first time a national monitoring data base consisting of measurement data and metadata as well as surface information on precipitation, land use and elevation was applied to examine influence factors on the metal bioaccumulation in mosses. The respective results mirror existing knowledge from other national studies to a large extend, although further analyses are necessary to affirm the findings. These analyses should include data from other national monitoring programmes and should additionally be carried out with other decision tree algorithms than CART.

Conclusions

The local variability in the metal concentration in mosses can be uncovered in terms of predictors or underlying hidden causes by using CART. Ideally, such an approach should be applied across the whole of Europe. This will only be feasible if all participating countries provide additional information about site characteristics as currently is done in for example the German moss surveys.

Recommendations

The UNECE Metals in Mosses Survey experimental protocol should be improved in order to reduce the observed influences, to enhance standardisation, and to strengthen the quality control. This implies the integration of sampling site describing metadata into the assessment. Furthermore, basis research is needed to test the hypothesis concerning moss species-specific accumulation of depositions.

Perspectives

Provided that the presented results hold true in further analyses correction factors should be applied on the moss data in order to get the depicted spatial patterns and temporal trends of metal bioaccumulation unbiased. Such factors should be calculated for natural landscape units or ecoregions that are homogeneous with regard to climate, vegetation and altitude.     

Wissenschaftstheoretische Grundlagen der Beobachtung von GVO-Umweltwirkungen

Goal, Scope and Background

The release of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) may result in ecological impacts to be monitored. This series presents the state-of-art concerning the environmental monitoring of ecological impacts of GMOs. Since this monitoring is conducted by several authorities, the methodical comparability and spatial validity of the monitoring data is crucial. Thus, the respective fundamentals of philosophy of science and of statistics as well as the methodical standardisation form the focus of this article.

Main Features

At first, the monitoring requirements will be described from the viewpoint of ecology. Consequently, the GMO monitoring needs to be integrated into existing programmes. Exposure and effects of GMOs have to be monitored across the hierarchy of ecological organisation. For monitoring to be efficient and sufficient, the design must be founded in terms of philosophy of science and statistics. Hence the fundamentals concerning the verification of hypotheses represent another feature of this article. The data used for the verification of hypotheses must comply with quality criteria. One of these criteria is the spatial and temporal extrapolation of the monitoring results, which is the third feature in this introductory article.

Conclusions

The evaluation of hypotheses on GMO impacts requires the linkage to ecosystems research and environmental monitoring. These both are, in terms of methodology, complementary and of significant technical and scientific value for GMO monitoring.

Recommendations

GMO-monitoring should closely be connected with ecosystems research and environmental monitoring. The levels of ecological organisation should be covered as well as the exposure and the effects of GMOs. The expected GMO exposure and effects should be considered by localising the monitoring sites.

Perspectives

Further articles of this series will deal with network designing, GMO pollen monitoring and extrapolation of site-specific measurements and modelling results.     

Moosmonitoring als Spiegel der Landnutzung?

Goal, Scope and Background

The study was conducted to test the hypothesis that the regional variability of nitrogen (N) and metal accumulations in terrestrial ecosystems are due to historical and recent ways of land use. To this end, in two regions of Central Europe the metal and N accumulations in both regions should be examined by comparative moss analysis. The regions should be of quantitatively specified representativity for selected ecological characteristics of Europe. Within both regions these characteristics should be covered by the sites where the moss samples were collected. The number of samples should allow for geostatistical estimation of the measured nitrogen and metal loads.

Methods

The two regions of investigation were selected according to an ecological land classification of Europe which was computed by classification trees. Within each of both research areas the sampling points were localized according to the areas occupied by the ecologically defined land classes. The sampling and chemical analysis of mosses was conducted in accordance with an appropriate UNECE guideline by means of ICP-MS (metals) and combustion analysis (N). The quality of measurements was assured using certified reference materials. The differences of deposition loads were tested for statistical significance with regard to time and space. Variogram analysis was used to examine and model the spatial autocorrelation function of the measurements. Ordinary kriging was then applied for surface estimations.

Results

By use of the ecological regionalisation of Europe the Weser-Ems Region (WER) and the Euro Region Nissa (ERN) were selected for investigation. The sampling sites represent quite well the natural landscapes and the land use categories of both regions. The measurement values corroborate the decline of metal accumulation observed since the beginning of the European Mosses Monitoring Survey in 1990. The metal loads of the mosses in the ERN exceed those in the WER significantly. The opposite holds true for the N concentrations: those in the WER are significantly higher than those in the ERN.

Discussion

The decrease of heavy metal emissions is correlated with lowered deposition and accumulation rates in terrestrial ecosystems. The accumulation of nitrogen in the biosphere is not following this trend.

Conclusions

The technique of moss analysis is adequate for spatially valid biomonitoring of spatial and temporal trends of metals and nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems. By this, it enables to prove the efficiency of environmental policies.

Recommendations and Perspectives

The accumulation of N in ecosystems is still a serious environmental problem. Related ecological impacts are the eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems like ground waters, lakes, rivers and oceans as well as the biocoenotic changes in terrestrial ecosystems. Thus, a statistically valid exposure analysis must encompass both, accumulation of metals and N bioaccumulation. Further, the bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants should be monitored. Finally, environmental biomonitoring should be conducted in much closer contact with human health aspects.     

Korrelation meteorologischer und pflanzenphänologischer Indikatoren des Klimawandels

Goal and Scope

While the rise of the air temperature as part of the global climatic change seems to be widely assured, questions about the effects of this phenomenon in ecological systems get more and more interesting. In this sense this article shows by the example of monitoring sites in Baden-Württemberg the correlation of air temperature measurements with data on the phenology of selected plants.

Methods

To this end the data on air remperature and plant phenology which are gathered from spatial dislocated measurement sites were correlated by prior application of Kriging interpolation. In addition, geostatistics are ssed to analyze and cartographically depict the spatial structure of the phenology in spring and in summer.

Results and Conclusion

The statistical analysis reveals a significant relationship between the rising air temperature and the early beginning phenological phases like blooming or fruit maturation. From 1991 to 1999 spring time as indicated by phenological phases begins up to 14 days earlier than from 1961 to 1990. As proved by geostatistics, this holds true for the whole territory of Baden-Württemberg.

Recommendation and Perspective

The effects of the rise of air temperature should be examined not only by monitoring of biological individuals as for example plants, but on ecosystem level, too. The German ecosystem research and the environmental monitoring should be supplemented by the study of the effects of the climatic change in ecosystems. Because air temperature and humidity have a great influence on the temporal and spatial distribution of pathogen carriers (vectors) and pathogens mapping of the determinants of vector and pathogen distribution in space and time should be done in order to identify hot spots for risk assessment and further detailed epidemiological studies.     

GIS-basierte Modellierung von Gewässerimmissionen

Goal and Scope

Environmental assessment of aquatic micro pollutants should consider the spatial and temporal variability of emission, transport and transformation. Simulation models coupled with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide digital maps of concentration patterns caused by the overlay of multipoint and diffuse emissions and natural attenuation processes in river basins. The paper gives an overview on GIS-based models for river basins and demonstrates the applicability by using some illustrating examples with GREAT-ER.

Main Features

Georeferenced models have several advantages: visualization of concentration patterns, investigation of spatial and temporal concentration profiles, analysis of exceedance of environmental quality standards, embedding in integrated river basin management systems.

Results and Discussion

GIS-based models allow a more realistic assessment. Monitoring programmes should be designed to deliver appropriate measured data for the evaluation and improvement of models.

Recommendation and Perspectives

The combination of digital maps, simulation models and environmental monitoring would provide better approaches for the risk assessment and water quality management of aquatic micro pollutants.     

(Persistent) Organic pollutants in Germany: results from a pilot study within the 2015 moss survey

Background

Since 1990, every 5 years, moss sampling is conducted within the European moss monitoring programme to assess the atmospheric deposition of airborne pollutants. Besides many other countries, Germany takes regularly part at these evaluations. Within the European moss monitoring 2015, more than 400 moss samples across Germany were taken according to a harmonized methodology for the assessment heavy metal and nitrogen input. In a pilot programme, eight of these sites were chosen for additional investigations on a broad range of organic contaminants to evaluate their accumulation in moss and thereby their presence in atmospheric deposition in Germany. Target compound classes comprised polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and –furans (PCDD/F), dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB, ndl-PCB), polyfluorinated alkyl substances, classical flame retardants as well as emerging chlorinated and brominated flame retardants. In total, 120 target compounds were analysed. For some analytes, comparisons of accumulation in moss and tree leave samples were possible.

Results

Except for certain flame retardants, PFAS, and ndl-PCB, substances of all other compound classes could be quantified in moss samples of all sites. Concentrations were highest for PAH (40–268 ng g^?1) followed by emerging flame retardants (0.5–7.7 ng g^?1), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE; 0.3–3.7 ng g^?1), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD; 0.3–1.2 ng g^?1), dl-PCB (0.04–0.4 ng g^?1) and PCDD/F (0.008–0.06 ng g^?1).

Conclusions

Results show the widespread atmospheric distribution and deposition of organic contaminants across Germany as well as the suitability of moss as bioaccumulation monitor for most of these compound classes. Compared to nearby tree leaf samples, accumulation potential of moss appeared to be higher for pollutants of high octanol–air partition coefficient (K_OA) and octanol–water partition coefficient (K_OW).

     

Trendanalysen mit Mann-Kendall-Test und Theil-Schätzer

Goal and Scope

An extension for trend analysis with Mann Kendall test and Theil estimator is presented which enables the weighting of data by weight factors.

Methods

It is shown in which way the weighting can effect the outcome of a trend analysis. Weighting is done in relation to the different sample sizes of the data points. A value or an observation derived from many specimens will be considered more reliable than a value derived from only a few specimens and will thus get a higher weighting factor.

Results

When weighting is applied, this will effect the Theil estimator rather than the Mann Kendall test. As a result the regression line is tilted towards those points with higher weights.

Outlook

Future must show whether the extensions presented here and in part 1 prove to be practical for the trend analysis in environmental monitoring or not.     

Modelling spatial patterns of correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in mosses and atmospheric deposition in 2010 across Europe

Background

This paper aims to investigate the correlations between the concentrations of nine heavy metals in moss and atmospheric deposition within ecological land classes covering Europe. Additionally, it is examined to what extent the statistical relations are affected by the land use around the moss sampling sites. Based on moss data collected in 2010/2011 throughout Europe and data on total atmospheric deposition modelled by two chemical transport models (EMEP MSC-E, LOTOS-EUROS), correlation coefficients between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were specified for spatial subsamples defined by ecological land classes of Europe (ELCE) as a spatial reference system. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were then used to separate moss sampling sites regarding their contribution to the strength of correlation considering the areal percentage of urban, agricultural and forestry land use around the sampling location. After verification LDA models by LR, LDA models were used to transform spatial information on the land use to maps of potential correlation levels, applicable for future network planning in the European Moss Survey.

Results

Correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were found to be specific for elements and ELCE units. Land use around the sampling sites mainly influences the correlation level. Small radiuses around the sampling sites examined (5 km) are more relevant for Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn, while the areal percentage of urban and agricultural land use within large radiuses (75–100 km) is more relevant for As, Cr, Hg, Pb, and V. Most valid LDA models pattern with error rates of <?40% were found for As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and V. Land use-dependent predictions of spatial patterns split up Europe into investigation areas revealing potentially high (=?above-average) or low (=?below-average) correlation coefficients.

Conclusions

LDA is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of correlations between atmospheric deposition and respective concentrations of heavy metals in moss and related mapping considering the influence of the land use around moss sampling sites.

     

Humanarzneimittel im aquatischen Ökosystem

Goal

In the Brandenburg State Office for the Environment an approach to assess the potential risk of drug residues in aquatic ecosystems has been developed based on an investigation of the consumption amounts in 1999 to identify or to exclude a potential environmental risk of important human drugs and further to define priority substances for monitoring programs in Brandenburg in the future.

Method

This assessment approach tested with 60 drug agents is based on an exposure estimation considering the main path for the entry human—waste water—sewage plant—surface water, on a substance specific analysis of effects and on an analysis of the environmental fate as compartment distribution, bioaccumulation and persistence.

Results

In Brandenburg surface waters the drug agent concentration for eight of the considered substances is supposed to be greater than 1 μg/l and for at least 13 of the considered substanoes the PNEC in aquatic ecosystems is assumed to be lower than 1 μg/l. A potential risk for the environment can be seen for the antibiotics Ciprofloxacin-HCl and Clarithromycin, the disinfectants Benzalkonium Chloride, Cocospropylendiaminguaniacetat, Glucoprotamine, Laurylpropylenediamine and Polyvidone-iodine, the sexual hormon Ethinylestradiol, the antidiabetic Metformin-HCl, the antiepileptic Carbamazepine and the lipid regulator Clofibrinic acid on the basis of effects because their PEC:PNEC-relation is about 1 or higher. For further 19 drug agents an environmental risk is to be assumed because of their environmental behaviour without support by ecotoxicological data at present.

Conclusion

Although there is only a small base of valid ecotoxicological data, this risk assessment shows that adverse effects in the aquatic environment by some drug agents cannot be excluded. However, it should be noted that this first assessment gives only a crude orientation. Appropriate test data are necessary to refine the assessment in future.     

Bestimmung des Ferntransports von persistenten organischen Spurenstoffen und der Umweltexposition mittels Modelluntersuchungen

Background, Aim and Scope

Many environmental pollutants are slowly degrading (persistent) and very mobile. They are semivolatile, i.e. they are partitioned between the environmental media of soil, water and air, and undergo long-range transport. The combined action of climate and substance properties determines the distributions and fate of these substances, among them as the persistent organic pollutants (POPs), other pesticides and industrial chemicals.

Main Features

Multicompartment chemistry-transport models are under development in order to study environmental exposure models.

Results

The investigation of transport and fate of some POPs on the global scale has emphasized the significance of historically explicit and geo-referenced simulations for substance distributions, persistence and long-range transport potential. Apart from the substance properties, it is the regional climate which is most important. This was illustrated by studies into the regional cycling of DDT and γ-HCH in selected tropical and extra-tropical regions.

Discussion

The isolation of individual steps of subsequent cycles of emission, transport and deposition (a so-called grasshopper effect) in model experiments shows the potential to elucidate the complex superposition of substance properties and environmental conditions, variable in time and space.

Conclusions

The results suggest that the grasshopper effect enhances the long-range transport potential, but is not required to explain an accumulation in polar regions (at least for γ-HCH).

Perspectives

A number of relevant scientific questions should be addressed by exposure modelling.     

Auswahl repräsentativer Standorte zur Modellierung der Ausbreitung von gentechnisch veränderten Pflanzen in Nord-Deutschland

Goal and Scope

The use of genetically modified plants (GMP) in agriculture is increasing rapidly. While GMP in North and South America are already established an extensive cultivation in Germany is yet to come. Risk assessment on possible effects of released GMP are mainly based on empirical studies with a small spatial extent (laboratories, small-scale field trials). The joint research project ‘Generic detection and extrapolation of genetically modified rape (GenEERA)’ aimed at estimating the dispersal and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape (Brassica napus) by the use of individual based models. The objective of the article at hand is to give a detailed account of the spatial variability of climate in Northern Germany (German Federal States of Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Bremen Mecklenburg Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg). Based on this, a method was developed that includes both, the determination of representative oilseed rapefields for modelling the dispersal of GM oilseed rape at field scale, and the subsequent generalisation of the results to landscapes.

Data and Methods

The statistically founded selection of modelling sites was performed by a compilation of available indicators within a GIS environment which are supposed to be important for the dispersal and the persistence of oilseed rape. Meteorological data on precipitation (P), air temperature (T), and sunshine duration (S) collected at up to 1,200 monitoring sites from 1961–1990 were as well as data on wind conditions (W) aggregated multivariate-statistically by Ward cluster analysis. An ecoregionalisation was used for characterising Northern Germany ecologically. Phenological data on the start of the oil seed rape bloom differentiated in the monitoring periods 1961–1990 and 1991–1999, respectively, were regionalised by performing variogram analysis and kriging interpolation. These maps were used to select appropriate Landsat images to identify rape fields by remote sensing algorithms as well as to define the respective flowering periods for individual based modelling.

Results

The separately generated P-T-S-W-Cluster were aggregated to four homogenic climatic regions. In combination with agricultural clusters defining typical landuse patterns (crop rotation, cultivation management) eight model regions were derived which describe the climatic and agronomic variations in Northern Germany. For each of these regions a representative monitoring site was selected serving for individual based modelling. At last, the modelling results were extrapolated back to the model regions applying corresponding GIS queries.

Discussion

The generated climatic regions reflect the transition of marine climate at the North Sea to continental climate in Northeast Germany. The shift in flowering of oil seed rape coincides with other studies on phenological changes of agricultural crops and wild plants.

Conclusions

Due to the huge calculation efforts and the lack of adequate land registers it was not possible to simulate the potential dispersal of GM oil seed rape at farm scale. Thus, generalisations were used to describe the variations of relevant ecological drivers affecting the dispersal of GMP. It could be shown that the aggregation of those factors to homogenic climatic regions was a successful approximation.

Recommendations and Perspectives

Due to the limited empirical data base it is necessary to validate and substantiate the modelling results by a GMP monitoring. The EU Directive 2001/18/EC on the deliberate release of genetically modified organisms into the environment stipulates assessment of direct and indirect effects of GMP on humans and the environment by case-specific monitoring and general surveillance. It should be realised as soon as possible, since the release and the cultivation of GMP in Germany have been started, already. The monitoring should be complemented by the implementation of a web-based geoinformation system (WebGIS) which enables access to relevant geodata and monitoring data and assists in analysing possible GMP impacts.     

Bewertung der Luftqualität in Rheinland-Pflaz mittels verschiedener Luftqualitätsindizes

Goal and Scope

The constant increase of traffic and the rising energy and material consumption both in industry and trade as well as in private households mean a constant challenge to environmental protection and to the air pollution control. With the commencement of the Federal ambient pollution control act in April 1974, the legal basis for the monitoring of air pollution was created. In future, the limit values laid down in the Council Directive 1999/30/EG, 2000/69/EG and 96/62/EG, will be valid. In town and regional planning there is a great demand for a simple index to evaluate the air quality. From the available data of PM₁₀, NO₂, O₃, CO, SO₂, trends of the air quality will be derived.

Methods

The indices LQI and TLQ suggested by Mayer et al. (2002) were calculated for selected stations of the air pollution monitoring network (ZIMEN) in Rhineland-Palatine. All analysis are based on hourly recorded value, Mean values and frequency distributions are used for the interpretation. Furthermore, the characteristics and trends of the indices under different weather conditions were examined and discussed.

Results

The examination figures out that the air pollutions indices at all stations show similar patterns in the period between January 2001 and December 2002. Neither the LQI, nor the TLQ shows an annual variation. Existing variations are mainly controlled by the general weather situation and the air temperature. High values of the indices appear at extremely high or low mean daily air temperature. The absolute value of the air pollution index is determined by local pollution factors.

Outlook and Recommendations

Both indices are well suitable to evaluate the air quality and to assess the effects of state-aided measures for air pollutant control. Therefore, the indices TLQ and LQI should be published as an additional information in the world wide web.     

Die Lösung von Nutzungskonflikten aufgrund flächenhafter Bodenkontaminationen mit Hilfe Geografischer Informationssysteme und Mitteln der Geostatistik

Goal and Scope

By means of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and other geostatistical methods, the extensive heterogeneous data materials of large area soil contaminations are re-evaluated to eliminate exploitation conflicts and investment obstacles.

Methods

The mapping of relevant frame criteria generates the basis to solve the conflicts, such as types of exploitation of field areas, development plans, protected areas, flooded areas, etc. as well as their geo-referencing in the Geographical Information System. The critical examination of data age and quality as well as the geostatistical evaluation by means of semivariogram analysis and Kriging technique are essential prerequisites for the determination of areas related to utility and exceeding test values.

Results and Conclusions

As a result, one can modify the hazardous situation and can provide recommendations for an optimal elimination of hazards, mostly in the framework of scheduled measures in terms of town planning.

Outlook

On the basis of the results obtained, further exploitation or monitoring work can clearly be optimized.     

Ableitung ökotoxikologisch begründeter Bodenqualitätskriterien am Beispiel Arsen

Background

A vast amount of data on the concentration of substances in soils is being generated in environmental monitoring programmes. This data has to be assessed in terms of effects on terrestrial biota. Benchmarks for such an assessment have been missing up to now. This gap has been filled by the development of a concept for the derivation of ecotoxicologically based soil quality criteria (SQC) and the application of this concept to environmentally relevant substances.

Objectives

The derivation method was applied to arsenic. The derivation process was described in detail from the compilation of data regarding effects on microbial processes, plants, and soil invertebrates to the formulation of a recommendation for an SQC.

Methods

The conceptual framework for the derivation of ecotoxicologically based SQC was developed after reviewing national and international concepts for the assessment of the effects of substances on terrestrial communities. For the assessment of arsenic effects, all relevant biotic processes and trophic levels have been taken into account. Moreover, soil characteristics that may affect the toxicity to biota have been reviewed.

Results

Effects of arsenic on biota may occur at soil background concentrations or slightly above. There are only a few studies in which the influence of soil characteristics, such as soil pH, soil texture, and soil organic carbon, on the effects of arsenic has been investigated systematically. That is why the SQC was oriented on soil background concentrations for sandy soils (5 mg As/kg soil dw). A comparison of the SQC derived in this work with ecotoxicologically based soilquality values from Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United States shows an average value of 16 mg As/kg, with a range between 5 and 34 mg/kg. The variations in the soil quality values are mainly due to differences in the derivation approaches.

Conclusions and Outlook

The concept applied is considered suitable for the derivation of SQC designed to protect terrestrial communities against direct effects of substances in soils. Therefore, its use is planned to derive SQC for other environmentally relevant substances. In addition to compensation factors, statistical methods should be taken into account to compensate for risks which cannot be quantified. Furthermore, there is the need for an assessment of indirect effects of soil contaminants on birds and mammals.     

A flexible spatio-temporal model for air pollution with spatial and spatio-temporal covariates

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of \(\text {NO}_{x}\) in the Los Angeles area during a 10 year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated \(R^2\) of approximately \(0.7\) at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.     

Entscheidungsanalytische Simulation formalisierter Umweltmediationsabläufe

Goal and Scope

During the last 10 years environmental mediation has become a popular instrument in Germany to solve environmental conflicts. Environmental mediation is a voluntary negotiation process that is supported by a neutral third person and in which those involved in a conflict jointly search for solutions that are acceptable to all. The simulation of mediation processes can be used to determine the main factors that influence the progression of the conflict and to assess the potential and limits of environmental mediation.

Methods

In this article a decision-theoretical, dynamic model is discussed which is used to simulate a formalized mediation process. It covers, over and above the standard assumptions, the role of emotions. They are the missing link between a state of conflict, and rational, utility maximizing behavior as it is postulated in standard economics.

Results and Conclusions

With this model, the effects of several different parameter sets have been tested. Here, the willingness of the parties to negotiate and to agree to a compromise solution is discussed as well as the role of the integrated emotions which are envy and anger.

Outlook

Due to the large amount of data produced by the model, the evaluation has so far mainly focused on the results of the mediation process. For future research, a more detailed analysis of the simulation runs as well as experiments can help to make the model more realistic.     

Schwermetallbelastung von Dreissena polymorpha in Donau und Drau und ihre Bedeutung als Bioindikator

Goal and Scope

This study was undertaken to investigate the differences in heavy metal burden between the organisms and environmental compartments and to evaluate the role of Dreissena polymorpha as a bioindicator organism.

Methods

The concentrations of zinc, copper, cadmium and lead in whole soft body and selected tissues of D. polymorpha at two river habitats in Austria were examined using atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS). Concentrations in organisms were compared to those in sediment and water.

Results and Conclusion

Zebra mussels of the river Drau showed generally higher heavy metal concentrations as compared to mussels of the river Danube and contained elevated zinc and cadmium levels as compared to metal concentrations found in soft tissues of zebra mussels from uncontaminated sites in Germany and The Netherlands. The essential metals zinc and copper were mainly accumulated in gills, foot and byssal gland tissue of the mussel, in contrast to the non-essential metals cadmium and lead which were found predominantly in the midgut gland. The heavy metal concentrations in both, sediments and mussel tissue, were higher than in water samples. There was no correlation between the concentrations in water and in the organisms except for zinc. In contrast, correlations were found between concentrations in sediments and mussel soft tissue.

Recommendation and Perspective

Further investigations should include the examination of sediments and consider the mechanism of food uptake to assess the role of D. polymorpha as a bioindicator organism.