Emissions- und Immissionsprognosen für den Straßenverkehr in Deutschland

The use of such threshold values, which are valid today and will be valid in the future, for waste gas emissions from motor vehicles will continuously serve to further limit the amounts of emissions from the motorized traffic in Germany, even though it must be assumed that an ever increasing amount of mileage will be observed. Following the reduction in emissions which have been calculated, and the estimated improvements to be seen in this area, important goals in atmospheric quality should be achieved in the future. Especially the risk of cancer associated with motorvehicle traffic will drop appreciably below the target goals. The most important problem of the air pollution stemming from traffic emissions, however, seems to be the fine dusts. A reduction in the quantity of these substances may possibly be related to the emissions of nitric oxides and also of NMVOCs. The efficient reduction of the climatically-relevant emissions attributed to motor-vehicle traffic is a great challenge to the fields of technology, fuel supply and user behavior patterns. These factors will therefore represent an important part of the long-term environmental discussions.     

Klimawandel und zukünftig mögliche temperaturgesteuerte Malariatransmission in Deutschland

Background, aim and scope On behalf of the Centre of Excellence for Climate Effects and Adaption (KomPass) of the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) an Expert Information System on Climate Change and Adaption (FISKA) was developed. FISKA shall provide the governmental institutions with basic information and models on climate change impacts for the development and accomplishment of adaption strategies. In this paper the impact model on potential temperature-dependent malaria transmissions is presented. It shows how, together with the REMO and WettReg climate models implemented in FISKA, areas at risk of malaria can be identified. Materials and methods FISKA was developed as an open and modular expert information system and allows the exchange of data and information with other institutions. Climate change impacts are implemented as calculation engines. The system allows for implementing additional data and impact models to improve existing impact models. For the calculation of the temperature-dependent potential secondary malaria infections the basic reproduction rate was used and the according algorithms were implemented in two calculation engines. One engine allows the calculation of the secondary infections and the other allows the calculation of the seasonal transmission gates. Measured air temperatures for the period 1961–2007 were provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD), data on future air temperatures were extracted from the climate models REMO and WettReg for the climate reference periods 1991–2020, 2021–2050, and 2051–2080. The respective secondary infections and the resulting seasonal transmission gates for each period were regionalised on the basis of an ecological land classification to analyse significant ecoregional differences. Results Comparing the climate reference period 1961–1990 and the following period 1991–2007, the proportion of Germany featuring a potential seasonal malaria transmission gate of one or rather two months has been reduced in favour of a three months transmission gate. Accordingly, in the period 1991–2007 malaria transmissions during three months are possible on 70?% of the German territory instead of 26?% in 1961–1990. The percentage of a four months transmission gate has increased from 0.02?% to 0.76?%, and even a five months transmission is possible on 0.15?% of Germany. For future periods the number of potential secondary infections increases and further extensions of the seasonal transmission gates were revealed. In case of REMO A1B in 2051–2080, almost whole Germany features thermal conditions allowing malaria transmissions during four or rather five months. Discussion Rising air temperatures lead to changes in the spatial structure of the ecological elementary factor temperature, which can, under otherwise identical conditions, facilitate the reproduction of pathogens (here Plasmodium vivax) and vectors (here Anopheles atroparvus) as well as the spread of diseases. The basic reproduction rate serves the calculation of secondary malaria infections, which are the infections of host by a vector under the assumption that every member of the host population is susceptible for the pathogen. Improved thermal conditions alone do not necessarily imply the development of a malaria epidemic. Other factors like population density or medical care and the presence of vector habitats are of major importance, however, not considered by the calculation engines. The example of malaria is intended to be a model for a range of temperature-dependent vector-borne diseases. Conclusions The impact model on temperature-dependent malaria infections shows exemplarily the information content and functionality of FISKA. Data and functionality of FISKA serve as an expert information system for the detection of risks due to climate change. The results can be published as interactive maps via the FISKA internet interface. From a technical point of view, every impact model based on a calculation engine can be implemented and published via the web interface, provided that the impact models and the resulting risk maps rely on scientific reliable assumptions and are documented comprehensively. Recommendations and perspectives An improvement of FISKA considering the European scale is technically possible. It would require the development of GIS- and model applications on the basis of Europe-wide basic and specific data. For small-scale model runs a dynamic modelling of the water balance including soil hydrology as well as consideration of microclimate effects are required.     

Umweltindikatoren für Immissionswirkungen

“In contrast to other fields of politics, a few, minor measurements (indicators) are still lacking in the environmental policies which enable one to evaluate the environmental situation and to consequently take over a major role in political discussions” (BMU 1998). There are a multitude of suggestions for such environmental indicators on both a national and an international level. To date, however, there are still no indicators through which the ecological effects of biosphere pollution can be evaluated. This work provides two examples how biomonitoring data can be connected to environmental indicators. Based on the background concentrations of a multitude of heavy metals and dioxins/furans in two individual bioindicators (standardized grass and kale cultures), which have been combined to act as indicators for the topic in question, indices have been calculated through the determination of reference values. The results are indicators for the pollution effects of traffic-related emissions, the pollution effects from the emissions of fossil fuels and the pollution effects of dioxins and furanes. These indicators may still be combined further through the methods of calculation which are described. The further, methodical development of bioindicators, however, turned out to be problematic. Only data whose survey methods have been standardized to such an extent that the results are comparable with each other over longer periods of time can be combined to represent indicators: an inalienable requirement for the presentation of trends.     

Neue horizonte für die chemie

The term ‘sustainable development’ is defined and discussed with regard to its significance and its application in the field of chemistry. This is presented using the synthetic organic chemistry as an example. A review of the history of chemistry indicates clearly the necessity for further developments in the course of concepts involving sustainability. Following the eras of bituminous coal tar and mineral oil in both of the two past centuries, a search for new raw materials and a reduction in the global ecotoxicological potential for danger is being strived for. Critical contemplations are mandatory in order to avoid making this term ‘persistence’ into a keyword. Consequently, one must take into consideration the field of research and development as well as reflecting about the classification of chemical and scientific research projects, and their political as well as social relationships. Aside from the new methods of synthesis, this will also require the formulation of other decision-relevant criteria.     

Aquatische Mesokosmosversuche im Zulassungsverfahren für Pflanzenschutzmittel

This article deals with the question of how to consider data from aquatic mesocosm tests in the registration procedure of plant protection products. The legal framework is presented. This type of test must fulfill special methodological requirements in order to become a valuable tool for risk assessment. If this is the case, the data from mesocosm studies is more important than that from laboratory tests. Such studies must only be submitted if the risk assessment on the basis of standard laboratory tests indicate a risk for aquatic organisms.     

Teil II: Stoffstromnetze für Fruchtfolgen

The general results of material flow analyses for agricultural farms presented in Part I are now specified for three farms in Lower Saxony. For this, the existing material flow net for winter wheat is extended by the crops of winter barley, winter rye, summer barley, rape, sugar beets and potatoes. The assessment is essentially done regarding the impact categories of resource depletion, cumulated energy demand (CED) and emissions to atmosphere. Besides the assessment of single farms or crops, also the comparison, of different agricultural production systems is possible, whereby the choice of the functional unit and the basis of comparison (with reference to input or output) is of major importance. Additionally, as for agricultural means of production, the material flows and emissions resulting from the provision of carbolime — an often employed carbonate fertiliser as for sugar-beet cultivation — are derived completely within this article. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses on the subject of detail intensity of agricultural basic data are presented for the example of machine employment. The material flow nets are regarded as transferable to other farms with similar crop rotation systems, with an appropriate expenditure of information gathering and parameterisation. The complete net can be used as a module within further investigations, e.g. of the industrial processing of food, as a pre-production chain for agricultural resources being part of the production process (winter wheat — mill, brewing barley — brewery, sugar beets — sugar-factory).     

Dynamisiertes Emissionskataster für den Freistaat Sachsen

A computer aided tool was created for the calculation of emission values in Saxony. It is based on the Geographic Information System ArcInfo and enables the emission values for past, present and future periods to be assessed. At present, the anthropogenic air pollutants SO₂, NO_x, CO, NH₃, NMVOC, TSP, CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O can be calculated by means of emission factors and statistical values. The tool is open to future expansions. The moduls represent the following emission groups: Power stations, large agricultural farms and large industrial plants as point sources, as well as transport, households, small consumer and the total emission of agriculture as area sources. The local resolution of emission values, the relationship of emission values to geographic or political territories, the inclusion of a high resolved digital street network, and the use of actual data concerning land use, density of population and density of build up areas are realized by GIS ArcInfo. The dynamic emission inventory can be used, alone or in conjunction with an atmospheric dispersion model, to assess trends in air quality.     

Entwicklung von Prüfwertempfehlungen für ausgewählte Schadstoffe zum Schutz des Bodens als Lebensraum für Bodenorganismen

Goal and Scope

In the German Federal Soil Protection and Contaminated Sites Ordinance there are no ecotoxicological trigger values for the protection of soil as a habitat for soil organisms. The objective of this study was to derive preliminary trigger values for the habitat function of soils. This was done by collecting data on the impact of priority pollutants on soil organisms and plants followed by the parallel use of the Factorial Application Method (FAME) and Distribution Based Extrapolation (DIBAEX) and a final verification of the plausibility of the calculated trigger values by means of an ecotoxicological test battery.

Methods

Data on the effects of pollutants on soil organisms and plants were recorded in a specific data base (Soil Value). Subsequently, we derived so-called ‘working trigger values’ using the extrapolation methods FAME (factorial application method) and DIBAEX (distribution based extrapolation). In the second phase of the project, we verified experimentally the plausibility of these values by means of an ecotoxicological test battery. Test substrate was a sandy soil with low sorption capacity and organic carbon content which was mixed with fresh pollutants (e.g. heavy metal salts) and polluted soil material from contaminated sites (aged contamination), respectively. Organisms tested were microorganisms, plants, earthworms, springtails and nematodes.

Results and Conclusions

We calculated working trigger values for 12 pollutants based on 900 datasets compiled in he data base. The laboratory investigations showed the freshly added contaminants to be less strongly adsorbed to the soil than those added by the use of contaminated soil material. Nevertheless, aged contaminations displayed often the same inhibitive effects as the freshly added chemicals. The results achieved in the second phase of the project were also recorded in the Soil-Value database. Based on the new data set, final trigger values were derived for the experimentally tested substances.

Outlook

The procedure described in this contribution exemplarily for copper can be used for the derivation of recommended trigger values for the pathway soil ? soil organisms. Besides copper, preliminary trigger values were derived for zinc, mercury, lead and HCH.