Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods.     

Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Canada's National Park System

To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated forCanada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonaltemperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling andAnalysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems andpeople. Important, widespread changes relate to marine andfreshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern andupward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combinedEast coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosionand deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic upliftnegates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individualparks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migratelakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroythe fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. Forexample: we could not form conclusions about glacial massbalance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for theEast Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.     

Climate Change and Climate Variability: Adaptations to Reduce Adverse Health Impacts

Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.     

Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network's Proposed Core Monitoring Variables: An Early Warning of Environmental Change

This article reports on the evaluation of existing ecologicalmonitoring variables from a variety of sources to select a suiteof core variables suitable for monitoring at the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN) sites located acrossCanada. The purpose of EMAN is to promote the acquisition of relevant and consistent data that can be used to report on national trends and provide an early warning of ecosystem change. Existing monitoring variables were evaluated in twosteps. In the first step, three primary criteria were used to pre-screen preliminary variables. In the second step, a moredetailed evaluation considered twenty criteria based on dataquality, applicability, data collection methods, data analysisand interpretation, existing data and programs, and cost effectiveness to select a draft set of core monitoring variables(CMV). An ecological framework was developed to organize the CMVin a manner that permitted a gap analysis to confirm the CMV assessed a wide range of relevant environment components. Thesuite of CMV were then tested to determine their effectiveness in detecting ecosystem change caused by stressors with ecosystemresponses that have been well documented in the literature. Thisproject is part of a process lead by Environment Canada to select CMV to detect and track ecosystem change at EMAN sites. It is anticipated that the proposed CMV will undergo future discussion and development leading to the final selection of asuite of CMV for use at EMAN sites.     

气候变化下的新疆生态环境脆弱性评价

选取了脆弱性、适应能力作为影响新疆生态环境脆弱性的条件层,进一步筛选出海拔、地质环境、沙尘暴、人口密度、降水量、植被类型、生态保护政策7个因子作为成因指标层,并用专家打分法对每个指标赋予权重。将研究区剖分成195个评价单元格,借助G玛强大的数据管理功能,建立与空间数据和属性数据相互关联的生态环境脆弱性数据库;首次采用模糊数学层次分析法作为新疆生态环境脆弱性等级计算的数学模型,计算出新疆生态环境脆弱性等级,并借助CIS进行成果表达。     

A Flexible Global Warming Index for Use in an Integrated Approach to Climate Change Assessment

Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO₂). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly, they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.

Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change: Alternative Analytical Approaches

Uncertainty plays a key role in the economics of climate change, and research on this topic has led to a substantial body of literature. However, the discussion on the policy implications of uncertainty is still far from being settled, partly because the uncertainty of climate change comes from a variety of sources and takes diverse forms. To reflect the multifaceted nature of climate change uncertainty better, an increasing number of analytical approaches have been used in the studies of integrated assessment models of climate change. The employed approaches could be seen as complements rather than as substitutes, each of which possesses distinctive strength for addressing a particular type of problems. We review these approaches—specifically, the non-recursive stochastic programming, the real option analysis, and the stochastic dynamic programming—their corresponding literatures and their respective policy implications. We also identify the current research gaps associated with the need for further developments of new analytical approaches.     

环境污染物计算毒理学分析及环境行为模拟研究进展

根据国内外研究报道,系统地总结了计算毒理学和化合物环境行为模拟在环境科学领域的研究进展,包括二者的概念、理论、研究方法以及在环境研究中的应用;分析了计算毒理学和化合物环境行为模拟在发展中所面临的挑战,并提出对策;展望了计算毒理学和化合物环境行为模拟在环境研究中的发展前景。     

Use of Water Clarity to Monitor the Effects of Climate Change and other Stressors on Oligotrophic Lakes

We present evidence from studies oflakes in Killarney Park, Ontario, Canada that waterclarity is a key variable for monitoring theeffects of climate change, high UV exposure andacidification. In small oligotrophic lakes, thesestressors affect water clarity primarily byaltering the concentration of DOC in lake water. Clear lakes (<2 mg L^-1 DOC) proved to be highlysensitive indicators of stressors, exhibiting largethermal and optical responses to small changes inDOC. Extremely clear (<0.5 mg L^-1 DOC) acidic lakesshowed the effects of climate change and solarbleaching in recent decades. These lakes becamemuch clearer even though they were slowlyrecovering from acidification.     

关于建立健全我国环境健康风险评估制度的思考

环境健康风险评估是生态环境和卫生健康管理决策制定的重要依据之一,从政策制定、技术规范、制度试点、能力建设和管理应用等方面分析了我国环境健康风险评估工作现状。指出,我国环境健康风险评估制度存在各部门对环境健康风险评估的认识偏差,部门职责不清晰,管理需求不明确,技术体系不完善等问题。提出,生态环境和卫生健康部门应结合各自职责与需求制定相关工作办法,开展试点探索,条件成熟时制定专门法律;厘清生态环境和卫生健康部门在环境健康风险管理中的职责;紧密围绕生态环境和卫生健康管理需求,开展环境健康风险评估工作;借鉴国外经验,完善环境健康风险评估技术规范体系;从机构设置、技术队伍培训、合作共享、学术交流等方面提升环境健康风险评估能力。     

A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation

Winter alpine tourism has been repeatedly identified as one of the economic sectors most at risk from climate change in Switzerland. However, all of the costs that have been estimated so far for the Swiss tourism sector are, to some extent, misleading as they do not, or only partially, incorporate adaptation possibilities and general equilibrium effects. We attempt to fill this gap using a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the purposes of this research. Our modeling efforts first consist in creating a tourism sector with a part of it being dependent on snow. We also carefully model the snowmaking technology. Using climate change scenarios on future snow cover, we analyze their impacts on the Swiss ski industry. We find welfare effects for the Swiss economy ranging from − 23 to 113 million CHF in 2050. This range arises from the use of various assumptions concerning adaptation possibilities. We also show that geographical substitutions between international ski destinations have large positive effects for Switzerland. From a more general perspective, our results exemplify the risks of estimating the consequences of climate change based only on domestic impacts of climate change with no adaptation being implemented.

     

Modeling of Ecological Footprint and Climate Change Impacts on Food Security of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong in Bangladesh

This paper presents an integrated and dynamic model for the management of the uplands of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong to predict food security and environmental loading for gradual transition of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops and teak plantation, and crop land into tobacco cultivation. Food security status for gradual transmission of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops and teak plantation, and crop land into tobacco cultivation is the best option for food security, but this causes the highest environmental loading resulting from tobacco cultivation. Considering both food security and environmental degradation in terms of ecological footprint, the best option is gradual transition of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops which provides moderate increase in the food security with a relatively lower environmental degradation in terms of ecological footprint. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on rice and maize production in the uplands of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong. Climate change impacts on the yields of rice and maize of three treatments of temperature, carbon dioxide and rainfall change (+0 °C, +0 ppm and +0 % rainfall), (+2 °C, +50 ppm and 20 % rainfall) and (+2 °C, +100 ppm and 30 % rainfall) were assessed. The yield of rice decreases for treatment 2, but it increases for treatment 3. The yield of maize increases for treatments 2 and 3 since maize is a C₄ plant. There is almost no change in food security at upazila (sub-district) level for the historical climate change scenario, but there is small change in the food security at upazila levels for IPCC climate change scenario.     

Identification and Classification of Key Variables and their Role in Environmental Impact Assessment: Methodology and Software Package Intra

There is, as yet, no proven methodology to enable, objectively,the identification of key parameters out of a large number one normally encounters during any EIA. As EIA is a costly and time-consuming exercise, it is necessary to separate the man from the boys – so to speak – in order to optimize costs andefforts.In this paper a methodology for distinguishing the moreimportant parameters from the less important ones, developed byus, is described. The methodology aims at identifying andshortlisting the key parameters which ought to be studied in agiven EIA situation, thereby helping in reducing time, effort,and cost of EIA. With this methodology a system structure is developed whichgives hierarchical pattern of inter-parameter interaction, andreveals several distinguishing features of each parameter. Asoftware package INTRA (INTer-parameter Relationship Analysis)based on this methodology, has been developed. The paper alsodescribes a case study in which INTRA has been used to study theenvironmental impacts of urbanization of a typical third worldtown (Roorkee).     

河流水环境健康风险监测与评价系统设计

在介绍河流水环境健康风险评价的研究进展上,探讨了河流水环境健康风险监测与评价系统的设计.对系统结构和功能进行了剖析,进行了模型设计,对河流水环境健康风险预测预警进行分析和设计,并采用3S技术、通讯技术和软件开发技术结合进行该系统的集成和应用,以达到监测、评价、预测和预警的基本功能,一旦污染发生或进入预警状态时及时在界面上以图形网络或警戒色报警,并向有关责任人发送信息,并以可视化的交互模式传递给决策管理层,以减少风险带来的损失.     

2011—2021年全国地表水环境质量评价与变化分析

根据国家地表水监测网2011—2021年水环境监测数据,从全国、十大流域主要江河、重要湖库3个层面分析了我国地表水环境质量变化趋势及当前存在问题,并提出相关建议。分析结果显示,2011—2021年,我国地表水环境质量逐步改善。其中,2021年Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质断面比例较2011年提高了35.2个百分点,劣Ⅴ类水质断面比例较2011年降低了11.4个百分点。高锰酸盐指数、氨氮和总磷指标浓度呈现明显的下降趋势;总氮呈现先降后升再降的变化趋势,且目前仍处于较高水平。长江、珠江、浙闽片河流、西北诸河及西南诸河流域水质优于淮河、黄河、海河、辽河及松花江流域。十大流域主要江河水环境质量均有所改善,改善幅度最大的是海河流域。重要湖库水质状况有所好转,但富营养化情况未有明显改善。年内水环境质量方面,夏季水质明显劣于其他季节,表明当前我国面源污染防治存在明显短板。建议在明确当前水环境质量改善取得积极成效的同时,也应当意识到我国水生态环境保护面临的结构性、根源性压力尚未得到根本缓解,不能停留在过去的以水环境质量改善为核心的污染治理思路上,应从生态系统整体性和流域系统性出发,坚持山水林田湖草沙生命共同体理念,从"三水统筹"的角度加强对水域生态系统的整体保护。     

我国环境健康风险评估制度建设思路与建议

简述了环境健康风险评估制度内涵,分析了我国环境健康风险评估制度建设存在的关键问题,提出我国环境健康风险评估制度建设的思路与具体建议,包括以法律和政策制定为抓手开展顶层设计,从机构设置、技术研发、构建标准规范体系和开发系统性的数据库与模型工具等方面提升风险评估能力,强化环境健康风险评估结果在生态环境与健康管理中的应用,为我国环境健康风险评估制度建设提供参考。     

张家口市洋河、桑干河流域水环境健康风险评价

张家口市洋河、桑干河流域近几年来水质持续改善,为逐步恢复流域水质和下游官厅水库饮用水备用水源功能提供了条件.文章利用水环境健康风险评价模型,选取了2006年该流域水质监测数据,对流域内10个监测断面由饮水途径引起的水环境健康风险进行了评价.结果表明,该流域水体对人体健康危害最大的是化学致癌物Cr(VI),在各个监测断面中Cr(VI)的个人年风险均超过ICRP推荐的标准.同时,化学致癌物对人体健康危害的个人年风险超过非致癌物的个人年风险;因此对该流域水体的含化学致癌物Cr(VI)和As废水进行控制和治理是降低水环境健康风险的有效途径.     

饮用水源地痕量有毒有害污染物环境健康风险评价

水源地环境污染的健康风险包括化学物的致癌风险、躯体损害风险和辐射伤害风险,通过各自的剂量-反应关系,可建立3类风险的计算模型。在对部分参数进行适应性调整的基础上,运用这些模型对扬州市四水厂进行了分析评价。结果表明,该水源地水体中痕量有毒有害污染物所致健康危害总风险值为4.87×10-8a-1,远低于EPA推荐的风险限值,削减具有潜在致癌效应的卤代烃类排放是控制风险的关键。     

Impact of Climate Change on Date Production in Tunisia

Around the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one of the major phenomena affecting agriculture. Therefore, the mode of production and crop management will have to change radically. Our objective in this article is to examine the long-run effects of climate change on date production in Tunisia using panel cointegration covering the period from 1980 to 2014 in 24 regions. The climate of Tunisia differs in our study because we find a Saharan climate in the south and a European climate in the north. The central regions are characterized by a Mediterranean climate. Our empirical results show that the effects of climate and weather variability on date production must be considered a serious threat in Tunisia. In addition, we estimate relatively negative and variable long-run effects of temperature increase and rainfall shortages across regions on date output over the last three decades.