Probabilistic risk assessment of insecticide concentrations in agricultural surface waters: a critical appraisal

Due to the specific modes of action and application patterns of agricultural insecticides, the insecticide exposure of agricultural surface waters is characterized by infrequent and short-term insecticide concentration peaks of high ecotoxicological relevance with implications for both monitoring and risk assessment. Here, we apply several fixed-interval strategies and an event-based sampling strategy to two generalized and two realistic insecticide exposure patterns for typical agricultural streams derived from FOCUS exposure modeling using Monte Carlo simulations. Sampling based on regular intervals was found to be inadequate for the detection of transient insecticide concentrations, whereas event-triggered sampling successfully detected all exposure incidences at substantially lower analytical costs. Our study proves that probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) concepts in their present forms are not appropriate for a thorough evaluation of insecticide exposure. Despite claims that the PRA approach uses all available data to assess exposure and enhances risk assessment realism, we demonstrate that this concept is severely biased by the amount of insecticide concentrations below detection limits and therefore by the sampling designs. Moreover, actual insecticide exposure is of almost no relevance for PRA threshold level exceedance frequencies and consequential risk assessment outcomes. Therefore, we propose a concept that features a field-relevant ecological risk analysis of agricultural insecticide surface water exposure. Our study quantifies for the first time the environmental and economic consequences of inappropriate monitoring and risk assessment concepts used for the evaluation of short-term peak surface water pollutants such as insecticides.     

Probabilistic human health risk of PCDD/F exposure: a socioeconomic assessment

The aim of the present study was to assess the human health risks (carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic) of PCDD/F exposure for the adult population living in two different areas (industrial and residential) of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), as well as to compare these risks according to the socioeconomic status of the population. Two pathways were considered for PCDD/F exposure: direct (air inhalation, dermal contact and ingestion from soils and dust) and dietary. Although environmental exposure was higher for the population living in the neighborhood of the industrial area (mainly lower socioeconomic group subjects), it only accounted 1.05%. On the other hand, PCDD/F exposure through dietary intake was more important for those individuals of an upper socioeconomic level. This was due to the fact that their diet is richer in those foodstuffs containing higher PCDD/F concentrations. Consequently, taking together direct and dietary exposure to PCDD/Fs, the result is that upper socioeconomic group populations are more exposed to these toxic pollutants. In any case, the current levels of PCDD/F exposure would not mean significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for the population living in the industrial and residential areas of Tarragona.     

Dissipation behavior and risk assessment of butralin in soybean and soil under field conditions

Dissipation behavior, final residue, and risk assessment of butralin in soybean, green soybean, plant, and soil were investigated. Butralin residues were extracted with acetonitrile and then soybean samples were detected with gas chromatography-mass spectrometer (GC-MS) and soil samples were determined with GC with nitrogen phosphorous detector (GC-NPD). The limit of quantification (LOQ) of the method was 0.01 mg/kg for soybean, green soybean, plant, and soil. Average recoveries ranged from 90.4 ~ 98.2% for green soybean, 86.2 ~ 86.6% for soybean, 86.0 ~ 98.8% for plant, and 85.0 ~ 106.8% for soil. The relative standard deviations (RSDs) were 2.0 ~ 7.2% for green soybean, 2.0 ~ 3.0% for soybean, 3.1 ~ 8.1% for plant, and 1.8 ~ 6.6% for soil. Half-lives of butralin in soil samples varied in the range of 11–22 days. At harvest time, final residues of butralin in soybean and green soybean were lower than LOQ. Risk assessment demonstrated that, at recommended dosage and frequency, butralin would not induce significant harm on humans. The study could be used as a quantitative basis for application of butralin on soybean.     

Potential health risk of arsenic and cadmium in groundwater near Xiangjiang River, China: a case study for risk assessment and management of toxic substances

As part of our efforts to find effective methods to the drinking water risk management, the health risk assessment of arsenic and cadmium in groundwater near Xiangjiang River was analyzed. The results suggest that although the arsenic and cadmium concentrations in 97% of groundwater sources are less than the requirement of Water Quality Standards for Drinking Water (GB5749-2006) in China, the residents served by almost all of the investigated centralized drinking water sources have a significant potential health risk by consumption, especially cancer risk. It is justified through analyses that risk assessment is an effective tool for risk management, and the maximum permissible concentration of arsenic and cadmium in drinking water (0.01 and 0.005?mg L^-1, respectively) is suitable for China at present, considering the current economic status of China. Risk managers develop cleanup standards designed to protect against all possible adverse effects, which should take into account highly exposed individuals, effects of mixtures of toxic substances, attendant uncertainties, and other factors such as site-specific (or generic) criteria, technical feasibility, cost?Cbenefit analyses, and sociopolitical concerns.     

Health risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides with emphasis on DDTs and HCHs in abandoned agricultural soils

The aim of this study was to evaluate the consequence of changing land use from agriculture land to other use purposes with respect to OCPs non-cancer and cancer risk on human health, based on concentrations of DDTs and HCHs in soils collected from 55 locations representing 12 different land use types. There were no non-cancer risks of DDTs and γ-HCHs on adults and children, and there were very low cancer risks of DDD, o,p'-DDE, DDT, α-HCH, β-HCH, γ-HCH based on their total concentrations in all samples. Nonetheless, there were significant correlations of DDT to its metabolites (DDE and DDD) (r = 0.506 and r = 0.648) and DDE to DDD (r = 0.438) both at p < 0.01. OCP levels should be routinely monitored in different environmental media and food in order to verify whether there is fresh input. Their potential risks on human health should also be assessed.     

Persistence and risk assessment of spiromesifen on tomato in India: a multilocational study

Supervised field trials were conducted at four different agro-climatic locations of India to evaluate the dissipation pattern and risk assessment of spiromesifen on tomato. Spiromesifen 240 SC was sprayed on tomato at 150 and 300 g a.i.?ha^?1. Samples of tomato fruits were drawn at 0, 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 15 days after treatment and soil at 15 days after treatment. Quantification of residues was done on gas chromatograph–mass spectrophotometer in selective ion monitoring mode in the mass range of 271–274 (m/z). The limit of quantification of the method was found to be 0.05 mg kg^?1, while the limit of determination was 0.015 mg kg^?1. Residues were found below the LOQ of 0.05 mg kg^?1 in 10 days at both the doses of application at all the locations. Spiromesifen dissipated with a half-life of 0.93–1.38 days at the recommended rate of application and 1.04–1.34 days at the double the rate of application. Residues of spiromesifen in soil were detectable level (<0.05 mg kg^?1) after 15 days of treatment. A preharvest interval (PHI) of 1 day has been recommended on tomato on the basis of data generated under All India Network Project on Pesticide Residues. Spiromesifen 240 SC has been registered for its use on tomato by Central Insecticide Board and Registration Committee, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. The maximum residue limit (MRL) of spiromesifen on tomato has been fixed by Food Safety Standard Authority of India, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India as 0.3 μg/g after its risk assessment.     

Cumulative risk assessment for an urban agglomeration based on a relative risk model and multi-media fugacity model: A case study in Guangdong province,China

Urban agglomeration, which is an organism with distinct organizational characteristics, differs from a single city. In its policy-level environmental impact assessment, the ecological and health risks need to be addressed in a unified manner, because multiple cities interact and influence each other, and the environmental risks have multiple elements, multiple processes, and multiple effect interaction and superposition. To this end, this study proposed a regional-level cumulative risk assessment framework coupling a relative risk model (RRM) with a multi-media fugacity model (MFM). The RRM translated the risk causal relations into four city-differentiated matrices, which consisted of normalized factors (NFs), ranging from 0 to 1, that were indicative of the impact intensity and possibility. The MFM was embedded into the RRM to generate the NFs. The NFs were multiplied for each city-source-endpoint combination to get the overall risk score, and the score provided policy references. This framework was applied to Guangdong Province of China (GD). As heavy metal contamination is one of the GD's major concerns, this study analyzed their cumulative risks due to industrialization for the year 2020 and compared the city level and industrial level risk scores. The results showed that the central part of GD was under the highest risk, with Guangzhou, Foshan, and Jiangmen having the highest risk. From the perspective of the risk pressure sources, Pb and Cd were the biggest stressors. Non-ferrous/ferrous metals mining and processing and metal products manufacturing were the major threats. As these industries gain greater footholds in the GD's ecologically susceptible region, the relevant policies should be elaborately designed before new entrants commence their operations.     

Monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in a tropical river of an agricultural watershed in northern Thailand

The increasing application of pesticides in the uplands of northern Thailand has increased the transfer of pesticides to surface water. To assess the risk of pesticide use for stream water quality, we monitored the concentrations of seven pesticides (atrazine, dichlorvos, chlorpyrifos, dimethoate, chlorothalonil, (α-, β-) endosulfan, cypermethrin) frequently used in the Mae Sa watershed (77 km²) in water and sediment samples over a period of one and a half years (2007–2008). All investigated pesticides were recorded in the river. Chlorpyrifos was detected most often in water samples (75 % at the headwater station), while cypermethrin was most often found in riverbed (86 %) and in all suspended sediment samples. The highest concentrations of the pesticides were detected during the rainy season. About 0.002 to 4.1 % by mass of the applied pesticides was lost to surface water. The risk assessment was based on the risk characterization ratio (RCR). The RCRs of dichlorvos in water, (α-, β-) endosulfan, and cypermethrin in water and sediments were higher than unity indicating that they are likely to pose a threat to aquatic ecosystem. Finally, we discuss the role of sampling design on ecotoxicological risk assessment. Our study shows that pesticide contamination of surface waters is an environmental issue in the Mae Sa watershed and that measures need to be undertaken to reduce the loss of pesticides from soil to surface waters.     

Modelling-tracer study for risk assessment of a proposed sour gas facility

As an integral part of a risk assessment of a sour gas pipeline proposed for a recreational area in the Rocky Mountain foothills, the dispersion of hydrogen sulphide was assessed using meteorological monitoring, tracer gas concentration measurement and a complex terrain diffusion model. Sulphur hexafluoride was released into the nocturnal drainage winds of two valleys in the eastern slopes of the Alberta Rockies southwest of Calgary. The resulting concentrations were measured at several points on transects at various distances from the source. The NUVAL version of the dispersion model IMPACT (Integrated Model for Plumes and Atmospherics in Complex Terrain) was site tuned using the measured concentrations and concurrent meteorological data. Relative mean absolute errors of 24–50% were obtained. The Gaussian model (PLUMES) with modified stability classes gave relative mean absolute errors of 42–64% in predicting transect maxima. Dilution rates were found to be much larger than would be experienced under similar conditions over flat terrain.     

A probabilistic water quality index for river water quality assessment: a case study

Available water quality indices have some limitations such as incorporating a limited number of water quality variables and providing deterministic outputs. This paper presents a hybrid probabilistic water quality index by utilizing fuzzy inference systems (FIS), Bayesian networks (BNs), and probabilistic neural networks (PNNs). The outputs of two traditional water quality indices, namely the indices proposed by the National Sanitation Foundation and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, are selected as inputs of the FIS. The FIS is trained based on the opinions of several water quality experts. Then the trained FIS is used in a Monte Carlo analysis to provide the required input-output data for training both the BN and PNN. The trained BN and PNN can be used for probabilistic water quality assessment using water quality monitoring data. The efficiency and applicability of the proposed methodology is evaluated using water quality data obtained from water quality monitoring system of the Jajrood River in Iran.     

Health,safety and environmental unit performance assessment model under uncertainty (case study: steel industry)

Performance assessment is a critical objective of management systems. As a result of the non-deterministic and qualitative nature of performance indicators, assessments are likely to be influenced by evaluators’ personal judgments. Furthermore, in developing countries, performance assessments by the Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) department are based solely on the number of accidents. A questionnaire is used to conduct the study in one of the largest steel production companies in Iran. With respect to health, safety, and environment, the results revealed that control of disease, fire hazards, and air pollution are of paramount importance, with coefficients of 0.057, 0.062, and 0.054, respectively. Furthermore, health and environment indicators were found to be the most common causes of poor performance. Finally, it was shown that HSE management systems can affect the majority of performance safety indicators in the short run, whereas health and environment indicators require longer periods of time. The objective of this study is to present an HSE-MS unit performance assessment model in steel industries. Moreover, we seek to answer the following question: what are the factors that affect HSE unit system in the steel industry? Also, for each factor, the extent of impact on the performance of the HSE management system in the organization is determined.     

Spatial�Ctemporal assessment and redesign of groundwater quality monitoring network: a case study

Assessment of groundwater quality monitoring networks requires methods to determine the potential efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the current monitoring programs. To this end, the concept of entropy has been considered as a promising method in previous studies since it quantitatively measures the information produced by a network. In this study, the measure of transinformation in the discrete entropy theory and the transinformation?Cdistance (T?CD) curves, which are used frequently by other researchers, are used to quantify the efficiency of a monitoring network. This paper introduces a new approach to decrease dispersion in results by performing cluster analysis that uses fuzzy equivalence relations. As a result, the sampling (temporal) frequency determination method also recommends the future sampling frequencies for each location based on certain criteria such as direction, magnitude, correlation with neighboring stations, and uncertainty of the concentration trend derived from representative historical concentration data. The proposed methodology is applied to groundwater resources in the Tehran?CKaradj aquifer, Tehran, Iran.     

Applications of behavioral science to biodiversity management in agricultural landscapes: conceptual mapping and a California case study

Regime shifts of major salinity constituents (Ca, Mg, Na, K, SO₄, Cl, HCO₃, and NO₃) in the lower Salinas River, an agricultural ecosystem, can have major impacts on ecosystem services central to continued agricultural production in the region. Regime shifts are large, persistent, and often abrupt changes in the structure and dynamics of social-ecological systems that occur when there is a reorganization of the dominant feedbacks in the system. Monitoring information on changes in the system state, controlling variables, and feedbacks is a crucial contributor to applying sustainability and ecosystem resilience at an operational level. To better understand the factors driving salinization of the lower Salinas River on the central coast of California, we examined a 27-year record of concentrations of major salinity constituents in the river. Although limited in providing an understanding of solute flux behavior during storm events, long-term “grab sampling” datasets with accompanying stream discharges can be used to estimate the actual history of concentrations and fluxes. We developed new concentration–discharge relationships to evaluate the dynamics of chemical weathering, hydrological processes, and agricultural practices in the watershed. Examinations of long-term records of surface water and groundwater salinity are required to provide both understanding and perspective towards managing salinity in arid and semi-arid regions while also enabling determination of the influence of external climatic variability and internal drivers in the system. We found that rock weathering is the main source of Ca, Mg, Na, HCO₃, and SO₄ in the river that further enables ion exchange between Ca, Mg, and Na. River concentrations of K, NO₃, and Cl were associated with human activities while agricultural practices were the major source of K and NO₃. A more direct anthropogenic positive trend in NO₃ that has persisted since the mid-1990s is associated with the lag or memory effects of field cropping and use of flood irrigation. Event to inter-year scale patterns in the lower Salinas River salinity are further controlled by antecedent hydrologic conditions. This study underscores the importance of obtaining long-term monitoring records towards understanding watershed changes-of-state and time constants on the range of driving processes.

     

Groundwater quality assessment and its correlation with gastroenteritis using GIS: a case study of Rawal Town,Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Majority of the people of Pakistan get drinking water from groundwater source. Nearly 40 % of the total ailments reported in Pakistan are the result of dirty drinking water. Every summer, thousands of patients suffer from acute gastroenteritis in the Rawal Town. Therefore, a study was designed to generate a water quality index map of the Rawal Town and identify the relationship between bacteriological water quality and socio-economic indicators with gastroenteritis in the study area. Water quality and gastroenteritis patient data were collected by surveying the 262 tubewells and the major hospitals in the Rawal Town. The collected spatial data was analyzed by using ArcGIS spatial analyst (Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation) and geostatistical analysis tools (inverse distance weighted, radial basis function, kriging, and cokriging). The water quality index (WQI) for the study area was computed using pH, turbidity, total dissolved solids, calcium, hardness, alkalinity, and chloride values of the 262 tubewells. The results of Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation showed that the groundwater physicochemical parameters were clustered. Among IDW, radial basis function, and kriging and cokriging interpolation techniques, cokriging showed the lowest root mean square error. Cokriging was used to make the spatial distribution maps of water quality parameters. The WQI results showed that more than half of the tubewells in the Rawal Town were providing “poor” to “unfit” drinking water. The Pearson’s coefficient of correlation for gastroenteritis with fecal coliform was found significant (P?P?P?相似文献   

Evaluation of soil contamination in intensive agricultural areas by pesticides and organic pollutants: south-eastern Spain as a case study

A comprehensive survey of the occurrence and fate of pesticides and organic contaminants in soils from an intensive agricultural area devoted to horticultural production in plastic-based greenhouses has been performed to determine if the operation under integrated pest management practices has contributed to reduce the levels of these compounds. Almería province (south-eastern Spain) was selected for the case study. 38 agricultural soil samples (each sample corresponds to an independent private greenhouse) of areas working under integrated pest management (IPM) programs have been analyzed in order to evaluate their contamination fate. Sampling was designed to cover an area of about 400 km(2). Pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), phenolic compounds and di-(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) were monitored. The obtained results were compared to other studies reported in Spain and Europe. Among relevant persistent pesticides, DDTs and endosulfans were mainly found and the results indicated historical application, although recent application of endosulfan was rarely detected. PAHs were also found but to a lesser extent and derived from pyrogenic sources. DEHP levels were considerably higher in comparison to the other monitored analytes. The evaluation revealed that despite the use of IPM programs, pesticide and organic contaminants are still being detected in this type of agricultural soil, although at relatively low concentration levels. In general, the contamination rate was similar or lower in comparison to other agricultural areas from nearby regions or countries. However, further monitoring studies should be carried out to establish the possible reduction in contamination by the selected compounds.     

Classification of alluvial soils according to their potential environmental risk: a case study for Belgian catchments

Alluvial soils may represent important sinks of contaminants as a result of the deposition of contaminated sediments along the river by overbank flooding or after dredging. Because of the erosion of alluvial deposits or the release of contaminants from sediments, alluvial soils can also be a source of contamination. In this paper, a risk assessment for contaminated (alluvial) soils is presented. The approach, mainly based on physico-chemical soil characteristics, single extractions and leaching tests, is illustrated by means of a case study from four Belgian catchments. The extractions and leaching tests that were used have been validated by European testing programs and can provide valuable information for classifying the potential environmental risks of soils. Irrespective of the location, pH, organic carbon content and 'mobilisable' metal concentrations were the most important factors explaining 'mobile' metal concentrations in the alluvial soils. Additionally, the data of the physico-chemical soil characterization, extractions and leaching tests were combined with local and regional factors to classify the alluvial soils in different categories according to their actual and potential risk for the environment.     

Towards generalised reference condition models for environmental assessment: a case study on rivers in Atlantic Canada

Evaluation of the ecological status of river sites in Canada is supported by building models using the reference condition approach. However, geography, data scarcity and inter-operability constraints have frustrated attempts to monitor national-scale status and trends. This issue is particularly true in Atlantic Canada, where no ecological assessment system is currently available. Here, we present a reference condition model based on the River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System approach with regional-scale applicability. To achieve this, we used biological monitoring data collected from wadeable streams across Atlantic Canada together with freely available, nationally consistent geographic information system (GIS) environmental data layers. For the first time, we demonstrated that it is possible to use data generated from different studies, even when collected using different sampling methods, to generate a robust predictive model. This model was successfully generated and tested using GIS-based rather than local habitat variables and showed improved performance when compared to a null model. In addition, ecological quality ratio data derived from the model responded to observed stressors in a test dataset. Implications for future large-scale implementation of river biomonitoring using a standardised approach with global application are presented.     

Scientist–stakeholder collaboration in integrated assessment of climate change: lessons from a case study of Northwest Canada

Research on the climate change issue has generally focused on uncertainties in climate projections and calculation of mitigation costs. Most integrated assessment (IA) efforts have been directed at the mitigation component. The problem of climate change, however, is really about the potential effects on ecosystems, resources, and societies that depend on them. As illustrated by experiences from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study, a case study from Northwest Canada, these effects will be unique to each region and country. Many of these will be indirect, including region specific thresholds, vulnerabilities and adaptations which may not be included in sectoral analyses. Science can define some of the “What if” aspects of climate change, but the regional “So what” and “What should be done” questions are largely unanswered and subject to intense debate in various political fora. IA needs to recognize the multiobjective and multistakeholder aspects of vulnerabilities, risks, and potential responses to climate change. IA could provide a more holistic analysis of the regional impacts dimension of climate change by including both modeling and non‐modeling approaches, and incorporating institutional and stakeholder issues that do not readily lend themselves to economic analyses.