Understanding the Price Dynamics in the Jiangsu SO2 Emissions Trading Program in China: A Multiple Periods Analysis

Because emissions permits can be considered to be a pseudo-commodity, the permit price in the emissions trading markets has already attracted great interest from the economic literature. This research took the Jiangsu sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions trading program in China as a case study to examine the price dynamics over the next 10 years (2011–2020) based on Jiangsu’s new SO₂ emissions trading policy design. An adaptive agent-based simulation model was developed to estimate the price dynamics as well as the impact of energy price, policy design, and new environmental regulation on the permit price. The results showed that the equilibrium price of the Jiangsu SO₂ emissions trading market is approximately 4.20 CNY/kg, and the permit price will fluctuate around this price if the other conditions are not changed. If the coal price increases during 2011–2016, the permit price will decline to 2.79 CNY/kg by 2020 under China’s current coal–electricity price mechanism. In addition, the banking mechanism will smooth the price fluctuations and the average permit price will be generally higher when banking is not allowed. Finally, the stricter environmental regulation will reduce the market supply of permits and will raise the permit price. According to China’s potential new SO₂ discharge standard, the permit price will jump to 11 CNY/kg. The quantification of the permit price dynamics can help power plants to make decisions on emissions trading.     

Optimal strategies for best management practice placement in a synthetic watershed

It is significant to arrange suitable design and placement of best management practices (BMPs) for reaching the aim that can not only satisfy environmental quality standards, but also decrease the total cost of BMPs. This study applied WinVAST model to predict watershed responses. The objective of this work was to discuss both the economic costs and benefits of BMPs and the control efficiency of discharge and pollutant exports, and to create some suitable standards for the optimal BMPs placement strategies. It is significant to find an optimal number and location of BMPs. In the case study herein, the number of BMPs including a detention pond and a grassy swale would be better to be given by four. The number of BMPs should also be determined by the environmental standards. Moreover, the result shows that the optimal location of BMPs placement is in the downstream area near the outlet and on the mainstream of the catchment. When the BMPs are set in these regions, it cannot only reduce the peak flow and peak pollutant exports, but also have slow time to peak watershed responses.     

The Role of Abatement Costs in GHG Permit Allocations: A Global Stabilization Scenario Analysis

Our objective is to propose permit allocation schemes that lead to a fair distribution of the net abatement cost among regions in a global greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization scenario. We use a detailed technology-based energy model, World-MARKAL, to determine efficient abatement decisions, and to calculate the regional gross abatement costs (before permit allocation and trading). The net abatement costs are then calculated and used for different permit allocation schemes.     

A Stochastic Dynamic Game of Carbon Emissions Trading

This paper proposes a computable stochastic equilibrium model to represent the possible competition between Russia and China on the international market of carbon emissions permits. The model includes a representation of the uncertainty concerning the date of entry of developing countries (e.g., China) on this market in the form of an event tree. Assuming that this date of entry is an uncontrolled event, we model the competition as a dynamic game played on an event tree and we look for a solution called S-adapted equilibrium. We compare the solution obtained from realistic data describing the demand curves for permits and the marginal abatement cost curves in different countries, under different market and information structures: (i) Russia's monopoly, (ii) Russia–China competition in a deterministic framework, (iii) Russia–China competition in a stochastic framework. The results show the possible impact of this competition on the pricing of emissions permits and on the effectiveness of Kyoto and post-Kyoto agreements, without a US participation.     

Using an Allowance Reserve to Manage Uncertain Costs in a Cap-and-Trade Program for Greenhouse Gases

This paper investigates the design and performance of an allowance reserve in the context of a cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases. We use a Monte Carlo approach in which the parameters of the marginal abatement cost function, and the supply of offsets, are drawn from specified distributions. Our framework focuses on the potential impact of “medium-run shocks” to abatement cost and offset supply, as opposed to either short-run volatility or permanent shifts in the cost curve. Our model suggests that under reasonable (and even fairly conservative) assumptions about abatement cost and offset supply, an allowance reserve broadly similar to recent proposals for US climate legislation can be effective in containing allowance prices. In our core policy scenario, with a trigger price equal to US $32 in 2015, we estimate that the probability of drawing on the allowance reserve is <25% and the probability of requiring more than 7?GT of reserve tons over 20?years is <5%. We also use the model to explore the trade-off among three features of the reserve that are most relevant to policy makers: the total size of the reserve, the trigger price, and the degree of confidence that the reserve will be large enough to limit allowance prices to the target level. Our essential result is that a lower trigger price, or a higher degree of confidence, requires a larger reserve.     

支撑排污许可制度的固定源监测技术体系完善研究

排污许可制度是固定源核心管理制度,对污染源监测技术提出"便捷、智能、精细"的发展要求,依规发证、依证管理2个阶段均需要污染源监测技术的有效支撑.针对当前污染源监测技术体系现状,应进一步完善自行监测技术指南体系,对发证行业指南实施情况跟踪评估,适时修订;为将工业园区纳入核发排污许可证范围扎牢基础,制定工业园区自行监测技术...     

环境统计与排污许可衔接的工业源排放核算研究

环境统计面临依据排污许可数据估算工业污染排放总量的挑战.以某市4个行业6类污染物的排放数据为案例,讨论了在非重点源污染排放量估算问题上衔接排污许可和环境统计的可行性和存在的问题.研究结果表明:排污许可重点管理单位与环境统计重点调查单位存在显著差异,不能采用比率估算方法估算工业非重点源排污量;排污许可简化和登记管理单位排...     

Competitive Markets for Pollution Permits: Impact on Factor Income and International Equilibrium

We are interested in the impact of pollution permits on wages and profits. We analyze important consequences of introducing a market of pollution permits. A fundamental issue concerns the initial allocation of such permits: should they be allocated freely by grandfathering or be auctioned. The international symmetric case allows us to capture the essence of the problem on income factor. We show that allocating permits to factors in proportion of their contribution to production leads to an efficient (neoclassical) distribution. Considering the international asymmetric case, we show that a permit market does not modify the competitive world equilibrium without permits when the total allocation is large enough. When it is not, if allocation of permits is not proportional to the emissions in the world without permits, there is a reduction factor of emissions that results from the equilibrium allocation of capital.     

The impact of stormwater treatment areas and agricultural best management practices on water quality in the Everglades Protection Area

Half of the original Everglades system has been lost to drainage and development. What remains is included within the boundaries of the Everglades Protection Area (EPA), comprised of three Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) and Everglades National Park (Park). Inflows to the EPA contain elevated nutrient concentrations. Best management practices (BMPs) were implemented and six large wetlands called stormwater treatment areas (STAs) were constructed to improve water quality. We analyzed water quality in the WCAs and Park and performed an economic analysis of the STAs to remove nutrients from EPA inflows. In general, nutrient concentrations in all WCAs were higher during the pre-STA period than after the STAs became operational. In WCA2 and the Park, total phosphorus (TP) trends showed more negative slopes prior, as compared to after, the STAs became operational. These results suggest that BMPs lead to large initial decreases in nutrient export resulting in improved downstream water quality. A preliminary economic analysis shows that operation and management of the STAs are complicated and cost intensive. Comparing the cost of phosphorus (P) removal from water entering the EPA using BMPs and STAs may not currently be viable. BMPs prevent P from being applied to, or leaving from agricultural fields while STAs remove P from stormwater. We expect nutrient concentrations in water flowing into and out of the STAs to decline as both BMPs and STAs become more effective. We suggest an economic analysis of BMPs, STAs, and other potential approaches to determine the most cost-effective methods to reduce nutrient concentrations and related stressors affecting the Everglades.     

Evaluation of Water Quality Projects in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Lake Tahoe is a large sub alpine lake located in the Sierra Nevada Range in the states of California and Nevada. The Lake Tahoe watershed is relatively small (800 km(20) and is made up of soils with a very low nutrient content and when combined with the Lake's enormous volume (156 km(3)) produces water of unparalleled clarity. However, urbanization around the Lake during the past 50 yr has greatly increased nutrient flux into the Lake resulting in increased algae production and rapidly declining water clarity. Lake transition from nitrogen limiting to phosphorous limiting during the last 30 yr suggests the onset of cultural eutrophication of Lake Tahoe. Protecting Lake Tahoe's water quality has become a major public concern and much time, effort, and money has been, and will be, spent on this undertaking. The effectiveness of remedial actions is the subject of some debate. Local regulatory agencies have mandated implementation of best management practices (BMPs) to mitigate the effects of development, sometimes at great additional expense for developers and homeowners who question their effectiveness. Conclusive studies on the BMP effectiveness are also expensive and can be difficult to accomplish such that very few such studies have been completed. However, several project evaluations have been completed and more are underway. Such study usually demonstrates support of the project's effectiveness in decreasing nutrient flux to Lake Tahoe. Here, we review the existing state of knowledge of nutrient loading to the Lake and to highlight the need for further evaluative investigations of BMPs in order to improve their performance in present and future regulatory actions.     

Threshold Effect in Residential Water Demand: Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

This paper aims to empirically examine the presence of nonlinear behavior in residential water demand for the case of Tunisia. We specifically explore the existence of nonlinearity with respect to the magnitude of water price changes through a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) framework and an increasing multi-step water pricing scheme. Using quarterly time series for the period 1980–2007 which describes residential water consumption and its main determinants, our results provide strong evidence that water consumption responds nonlinearly to the extent of price changes for the two consumption blocks considered. Water price elasticities are found to be higher when variation in tariffs surpasses a given threshold. More precisely, we find a unit elastic water demand for lower block consumers (low-income households) when price changes exceed a threshold of roughly 5%. For the upper block consumers (high-income households), water consumption is less elastic in comparison to low-income households, but still significant when the price variation exceeds a threshold of 2.6%. Our findings imply that increasing the length of the lower block of consumption may help achieve goals of social equity, while increasing tariff progressivity, at least for upper block consumers, helps promote water saving.

     

基于排污许可证执行报告的“依证指数”构建方法研究

排污许可证执行报告是评价排污单位排污许可证实施情况的重要依据。执行报告以自行监测与台账记录信息为核心,涵盖排污单位污染治理与排放全过程的众多信息,但是目前尚缺少据此对排污许可执行情况进行综合评价的方法体系。采取常见的指数化方法,基于执行报告中的自行监测和台账记录等信息,构建排污许可证执行报告报送指数(A)、合规指数(R),结合监督检查校正系数(B),最终建立依证指数(I),依此对排污单位排污许可执行情况进行综合评价。对案例甲和案例乙两家火电企业2018年、2019年依证指数进行试算,所得结果可以较为全面地反映排污单位的执行情况,证明了该方法的可行性。建议以此方法为基础,对排污单位排污许可执行情况进行综合评价,以推动排污许可制的有效执行。     

Effect of spatial variability of storm on the optimal placement of best management practices (BMPs)

It is significant to design best management practices (BMPs) and determine the proper BMPs placement for the purpose that can not only satisfy the water quantity and water quality standard, but also lower the total cost of BMPs. The spatial rainfall variability can have much effect on its relative runoff and non-point source pollution (NPSP). Meantime, the optimal design and placement of BMPs would be different as well. The objective of this study was to discuss the relationship between the spatial variability of rainfall and the optimal BMPs placements. Three synthetic rainfall storms with varied spatial distributions, including uniform rainfall, downstream rainfall and upstream rainfall, were designed. WinVAST model was applied to predict runoff and NPSP. Additionally, detention pond and swale were selected for being structural BMPs. Scatter search was applied to find the optimal BMPs placement. The results show that mostly the total cost of BMPs is higher in downstream rainfall than in upstream rainfall or uniform rainfall. Moreover, the cost of detention pond is much higher than swale. Thus, even though detention pond has larger efficiency for lowering peak flow and pollutant exports, it is not always the determined set in each subbasin.     

Eutrophication Prediction Using a Markov Chain Model: Application to Lakes in the Yangtze River Basin,China

Lake eutrophication is harmful and difficult to predict due to its complex evolution. As an alternative to existing mechanistic models, a Markov chain model was developed to predict the development of lake eutrophication based on an 11-year dataset in 41 lakes of the Yangtze River Basin. This model was validated using a real-time update strategy and was demonstrated to be reliable. Based on the dataset, the lake eutrophication dynamics from 2000 to 2010 were analyzed. Lakes with different trophic states from 2011 to 2050 and their responses to different water management practices were simulated based on the developed model. The simulation results show that lake eutrophication would worsen from 2011 to 2040; however, eutrophication could be significantly alleviated by changing 100 km² of hypereutrophic lakes into eutrophic lakes per year from 2010 to 2020. The nutrient conditions in most of the lakes in the Yangtze River Basin show that phosphorus control would be more efficient than nitrogen control in eutrophication management practices. This case study demonstrates the utility of Markov chain models in using prior information to predict the long-term evolution of lake eutrophication at large spatial scales. The Markov chain technique can be easily adapted to predict evolutionary processes in other disciplines.     

The placement strategies of structural best management practices for different moving rainstorms

Hydrological responses and pollutant exports are always highly related to rainfall characteristics. Many studies have demonstrated that the influence of moving rainstorm on flows and mass transport process in hydrologic systems cannot be ignored. Best management practices (BMPs) are popularly applied for controlling water quantity and water quality in a watershed. Since the movements of rainstorm can influence watershed responses, BMP placement strategies should be suitably adjusted in different moving rainstorms. This study designed an intermediate rainfall pattern with varied movement behavior and tried to find the optimal BMP placement strategies, which cannot only satisfy environmental standards but also improve economic benefits, for the rainfall events. The result shows that the control efficiency of pollutant and runoff can highly improve when the BMPs are set near the outlet of a watershed. Since the economic efficiency is always regarded as an important factor, the BMP placement strategy is significant for watershed conservation and management.     

Modelling and assessing inter-regional trade of CO2 emission reduction units

A cost-efficient way to allocate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions among countries or regions is to harmonise their marginal reduction costs. This could be achieved by a market of emission reduction units (ERUs). To model such a market, we use a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model. It gives insights into the consequences of co-ordinating CO₂ abatement on regional energy systems and economies. As a numerical application, we assess the establishment of a market of ERUs among three European countries for curbing their CO₂ emissions.     

An Analysis with the CERT Model of the FSU Market Power in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market

This paper aims to assess the consequences of the amendments made to the Kyoto Protocol during COP 7 in Marrakech. The major issue of hot air and CDM transaction costs is examined using the CERT model to show that primary supply regions, typically those with hot air availability, might control the emissions reduction permit supply market and maximise net export revenues of permit supply by withholding 40 to 60% of available hot air credits. The assumption that primary permit suppliers control permit price via a restriction of hot air supply to the market will inadvertently leave a portion of the market share open to non-Annex B CDM supply, despite potentially extreme variance in CDM transaction costs. A summary table of policy implications on the emissions reduction permit market is also included.     

Improving water quality through California’s Clean Beach Initiative: an assessment of 17 projects

California’s Clean Beach Initiative (CBI) funds projects to reduce loads of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) impacting beaches, thus providing an opportunity to judge the effectiveness of various CBI water pollution control strategies. Seventeen initial projects were selected for assessment to determine their effectiveness on reducing FIB in the receiving waters along beaches nearest to the projects. Control strategies included low-flow diversions, sterilization facilities, sewer improvements, pier best management practices (BMPs), vegetative swales, and enclosed beach BMPs. Assessments were based on statistical changes in pre- and postproject mean densities of FIB at shoreline monitoring stations targeted by the projects. Most low-flow diversions and the wetland swale project were effective in removing all contaminated runoff from beaches. UV sterilization was effective when coupled with pretreatment filtration and where effluent was released within a few hundred meters of the beach to avoid FIB regrowth. Other BMPs were less effective because they treated only a portion of contaminant sources impacting their target beach. These findings should be useful to other coastal states and agencies faced with similar pollution control problems.