Implications of climate change for evaporation from bare soils in a Mediterranean environment

The purpose of this study was to predict quantitative changes in evaporation from bare soils in the Mediterranean climate region of Turkey in response to the projections of a regional climate model developed in Japan (hereafter RCM). Daily RCM data for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET _r) and soil evaporation were obtained for the periods of 1994–2003 and 2070–2079. Potential evaporation (E _p) from bare soils was calculated using the Penman–Monteith equation with a surface resistance of zero. Simulation of actual soil evaporation (E _a) was carried out using Aydin model (Aydin et al., Ecological Modelling 182:91–105, 2005) combined with Aydin and Uygur (2006, A model for estimating soil water potential of bare fields. In Proceedings of the 18th International Soil Meeting (ISM) on Soils Sustaining Life on Earth, Managing Soil and Technology, Sanliurfa, 477–480pp.) model of predicting soil water potential at the top surface layer of a bare soil, after performances of Aydin model (R ² = 94.0%) and Aydin and Uygur model (R ² = 97.6) were tested. The latter model is based on the relations among potential soil evaporation, hydraulic diffusivity, and soil wetness, with some simplified assumptions. Input parameters of the model are simple and easily obtainable such as climatic parameters used to compute the potential soil evaporation, average diffusivity for the drying soil, and volumetric water content at field capacity. The combination of Aydin and Aydin and Uygur models appeared to be useful in estimating water potential of soils and E _a from bare soils, with only a few parameters. Unlike ET _r and E _p projected to increase by 92 and 69 mm (equivalent to 8.0 and 7.3% increases) due to the elevated evaporative demand of the atmosphere, respectively, E _a from bare soils is projected to reduce by 50 mm (equivalent to a 16.5% decrease) in response to a decrease in rainfall by 46% in the Mediterranean region of Turkey by the 2070s predicted by RCM, and consequently, to decreased soil wetness in the future.     

Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors

The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.     

Shoreline change and potential sea level rise impacts in a climate hazardous location in southeast coast of India

Climate change impact on the environment makes the coastal areas vulnerable and demands the evaluation of such susceptibility. Historical changes in the shoreline positions and inundation based on projected sea-level scenarios of 0.5 and 1 m were assessed for Nagapattinam District, a low-lying coastal area in the southeast coast of India, using high-resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data; multi-dated Landsat satellite images of 1978, 1991, 2003, and 2015; and census data of 2011. Image processing, geographical information system, and digital shoreline analysis system methods were used in the study. The shoreline variation indicated that erosion rate varied at different time scales. The end point rate indicated the highest mean erosion of ??3.12 m/year, occurred in 73% of coast between 1978 and 1991. Weighted linear regression analysis revealed that the coast length of 83% was under erosion at a mean rate of ??2.11 m/year from 1978 to 2015. Sea level rise (SLR) impact indicated that the coastal area of about 14,122 ha from 225 villages and 31,318 ha from 272 villages would be permanently inundated for the SLR of 0.5 and 1 m, respectively, which includes agriculture, mangroves, wetlands, aquaculture, and forest lands. The loss of coastal wetlands and its associated productivity will severely threaten more than half the coastal population. Adaptation measures in people participatory mode, integrated into coastal zone management with a focus on sub-regional coastal activities, are needed to respond to the consequences of climate change.     

WEPP and ANN models for simulating soil loss and runoff in a semi-arid Mediterranean region

This paper presents the use of both the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of runoff and soil loss in the central highland mountainous of the Palestinian territories. Analyses show that the soil erosion is highly dependent on both the rainfall depth and the rainfall event duration rather than on the rainfall intensity as mostly mentioned in the literature. The results obtained from the WEPP model for the soil loss and runoff disagree with the field data. The WEPP underestimates both the runoff and soil loss. Analyses conducted with the ANN agree well with the observation. In addition, the global network models developed using the data of all the land use type show a relatively unbiased estimation for both runoff and soil loss. The study showed that the ANN model could be used as a management tool for predicting runoff and soil loss.     

Impact of land-cover change in the Southern Amazonia climate: a case study for the region of Alta Floresta,Mato Grosso,Brazil

The transformation of forest into pastures in the Brazilian Amazon leads to significant consequences to climate at local scale. In the region of Alta Floresta (Mato Grosso, Brazil), deforestation has been intense with over half the forests being cut since 1970. This article first examines the evolution of precipitation observed in this region and shows a significant trend in the decrease in total precipitation especially at the end of the dry season and at the beginning of the rainy season. The study then compares the temperatures measured in cleared and forested sectors within a reserve in the area of Alta Floresta (Mato Grosso, Brazil) between 2006 and 2007. The cleared sector was always hotter and drier (from 5% to 10%) than the forested area. This difference was not only especially marked during the day when it reached on average 2°C but also seemed to increase during the night with the onset of the dry season (+0.5°C). The Urban Heat Island effect is also evident especially during the night and in the dry season.     

The relative role of climate change and human activities in the desertification process in Yulin region of northwest China

To overcome the shortcoming of existing studies, this paper put forward a statistical vegetation–climate relationship model with integrated temporal and spatial characteristics. Based on this model, we quantitatively discriminated on the grid scale the relative role of climate change and human activities in the desertification dynamics from 1986 to 2000 in Yulin region. Yulin region’s desertification development occurred mainly in the southern hilly and gully area and its reverse in the northwest sand and marsh area. This spatial pattern was especially evident and has never changed thoroughly. From the first time section (1986–1990) to the second (1991–1995), the desertification was developing as a whole, and either in the desertification development district or in the reverse district human activities’ role was always occupying an overwhelmingly dominant position (they were 98.7% and 101.4%, respectively), the role of climate change was extremely slight. From the second time section (1991–1995) to the third (1996–2000), the desertification process was reaching a state of stability, in the desertification development district the role of climate change was nearly equivalent to that of human activities (they were 46.2% and 53.8% separately), and yet in the desertification reverse district, the role of human activities came up to 119.0%, the role of climate change amounted to ?19.0%. In addition, the relative role of climate change and human activities possessed great spatial heterogeneity. The above conclusion rather coincides with the qualitative analysis in many literatures, which indicates that this method has certain rationality and can be utilized as a reference for the monitoring and studying of desertification in other areas.     

Selection of ecological indicators for the conservation, management and monitoring of Mediterranean coastal salinas

Salinas systems are artificial wetlands which are interesting from the viewpoint of nature conservation. They play an important role both as habitats for migratory waterbird species and as nodes of biotic connectivity networks. In the Mediterranean basin, where the coastal salinas are highly significant as alternative and complementary habitats for waterbirds, a process of abandonment occurs, and many seminatural systems of this kind are disappearing. This abandonment is having serious consequences for migratory bird populations and for the ecological role these play. In the present paper, this group of waterbird species has been used to evaluate these wetlands for conservation purposes. We have developed a methodological approach for the selection of ecological indicators for the conservation and management of these Mediterranean habitats and waterbird assemblages, the main consumers therein. The stepwise procedure developed constitutes a practical tool for this task. Application thereof enabled us to differentiate the habitats available for the waterbirds and to identify the biotic and abiotic indicators for the maintenance and management of the salina ecosystems. These variables can then be incorporated into monitoring programs.     

An instrumented station for the survey of ozone and climate change in the southern tropics

The assessment of changes induced by human activities on Earth atmospheric composition and thus on global climate requires a long-term and regular survey of the stratospheric and tropospheric atmospheric layers. The objective of this paper is to describe the atmospheric observations performed continuously at Reunion Island (55.5 degrees east, 20.8 degrees south) for 15 years. The various instruments contributing to the systematic observations are described as well as the measured parameters, the accuracy and the database. The LiDAR systems give profiles of temperature, aerosols and ozone in the troposphere and stratosphere, probes give profiles of temperature, ozone and relative humidity, radiometers and spectrometers give stratospheric and tropospheric integrated columns of a variety of atmospheric trace gases. Data are included in international networks, and used for satellite validation. Moreover, some scientific activities for which this station offers exceptional opportunities are highlighted, especially air mass exchanges nearby dynamical barriers: (1) On the vertical scale through the tropical tropopause layer (stratosphere-troposphere exchange). (2) On the quasi-horizontal scale across the southern subtropical barrier separating the tropical stratospheric reservoir from mid- and high latitudes.     

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using remote sensing,susceptibility index,and WetSpass model in an arid region (Biskra,SE Algeria)

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment - Downstream water pollution resulting from anthropogenic pressures on upstream water can cause conflicts, especially in transboundary rivers basins. This...     

Health impact assessment of air pollution using a dynamic exposure profile: Implications for exposure and health impact estimates

In both ambient air pollution epidemiology and health impact assessment an accurate assessment of the population exposure is crucial. Although considerable advances have been made in assessing human exposure outdoors, the assessments often do not consider the impact of individual travel behavior on such exposures.Population-based exposures to NO₂ and O₃ using only home addresses were compared with models that integrate all time-activity patterns—including time in commute—for Flanders and Brussels. The exposure estimates were used to estimate the air pollution impact on years of life lost due to respiratory mortality.Health impact of NO₂ using an exposure that integrates time-activity information was on average 1.2% higher than when assuming that people are always at their home address. For ozone the overall estimated health impact was 0.8% lower. Local differences could be much larger, with estimates that differ up to 12% from the exposure using residential addresses only. Depending on age and gender, deviations from the population average were seen.Our results showed modest differences on a regional level. At the local level, however, time-activity patterns indicated larger differences in exposure and health impact estimates, mainly for people living in more rural areas. These results suggest that for local analyses the dynamic approach can contribute to an improved assessment of the health impact of various types of pollution and to the understanding of exposure differences between population groups.     

Mobility and ecological risk assessment of trace metals in polluted estuarine sediments using a sequential extraction scheme

The three-stage sequential extraction procedure for the fractionation of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn, proposed by the Commission of the European Communities Bureau of Reference, was applied to sediment five samples collected from the Sal estuary, Sergipe State, northeast Brazil, in September 2009. The method showed satisfactory recoveries, detection limits, and standard deviations for determinations of trace metals in the sediments. Cd and Pb were the metals most prevalent in the bioavailable fractions (carbonates, Fe and Mn oxides, organic matter, and sulfides), while Ni, Zn, Cu, and Cr showed higher percentages in the inert fraction. The order of mobility of the metals was Cd (66 %) > Pb (65 %) > Zn (59 %) > Ni (57 %) = Cr (57 %) > Cu (56 %). Possible toxicity related to these metals was examined using the risk assessment code, and by comparing the chemical data with sediment quality guideline ERL-ERM values. Results obtained using the two methods were in agreement, and showed low to medium risk for all metals, indicating that adverse effects on aquatic biota should rarely occur.     

Global climate change and contaminants--an overview of opportunities and priorities for modelling the potential implications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic

This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are limited by the availability of reliable emission factors. However, potentially more influential for human exposure than changes to the physical environment are changes in human behaviour. This includes the gradual displacement of traditional food items by imported foods from other regions, driven by prey availability and/or consumer preference, but also the possibility of increased exposure to chemicals used in packaging materials and other consumer products, driven by dietary and lifestyle choices.     

A temporal and spatial monitoring of organotin pollution in a harborside region of Brazil by imposex and ecological quality ratio using <Emphasis Type="Italic">Leucozonia nassa</Emphasis>

This study represents the first use of Leucozonia nassa (Mollusca-Gastropoda) in a program of long-term monitoring. Specimens of L. nassa were collected between 2006 and 2014 and analyzed for the occurrence of imposex in two areas in Southeastern Brazil, one control area and another characterized by the presence of many ports and marinas. Imposex was evaluated in nine sites based on the percentage of females exhibiting imposex (I%), relative penis length index and vas deferens sequence index, classical indices to evaluate tributyltin (TBT) impacts. Moreover, this study uses for the first time in a tropical environment the ecological quality ratio (EQR), an approach to verify the imposex levels as an indicator of the impact by organotin compounds according to the EU Water Framework Directive. The results confirm the occurrence of high levels of imposex in L. nassa with all the indices evaluated. Furthermore, the results also indicate that, despite the international ban, antifouling paints based on TBT are still possibly used in Brazil. In addition, this study shows that L. nassa has the characteristics that make it a suitable bioindicator to monitor TBT pollution, and that the use of the EQR may create important data regarding this problem.     

Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model

Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996?C2006 (3,226.2739 US$ × 10⁶ in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$ × 10⁶ in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.     

Mapping afforestation and deforestation from 1974 to 2012 using Landsat time-series stacks in Yulin District, a key region of the Three-North Shelter region, China

The Three-North Shelter Forest Program is the largest afforestation reconstruction project in the world. Remote sensing is a crucial tool to map land use and land cover change, but it is still challenging to accurately quantify the change in forest extent from time-series satellite images. In this paper, 30 Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+ epochs from 1974 to 2012 were collected, and the high-quality ground surface reflectance (GSR) time-series images were processed by integrating the 6S atmosphere transfer model and a relative reflectance normalization algorithm. Subsequently, we developed a vegetation change tracking method to reconstruct the forest change history (afforestation and deforestation) from the time-series Landsat GSR images based on the integrated forest z-score (IFZ) model by Huang et al. (2009a), which was improved by multi-phenological IFZ models and the smoothing processing of IFZ data for afforestation mapping. The mapping result showed a large increase in the extent of forest, from 380,394 ha (14.8 % of total district area) in 1974 to 1,128,380 ha (43.9 %) in 2010. Finally, the land cover and forest change map was validated with an overall accuracy of 89.1 % and a kappa coefficient of 0.858. The forest change time was also successfully retrieved, with 22.2 % and 86.5 % of the change pixels attributed to the correct epoch and within three epochs, respectively. The results confirmed a great achievement of the ecological revegetation projects in Yulin district over the last 40 years and also illustrated the potential of the time-series of Landsat images for detecting forest changes and estimating tree age for the artificial forest in a semi-arid zone strongly influenced by human activities.