Accounting for Active Management and Risk Attitude in Forest Sector Models

Given the importance of anthropogenic determinants in forest ecosystems within Europe, the objective of this paper is to link the evidence arising from biological models to socio-economic determinants, where the expected returns of forest investments represent the main driver. A micro-economic area allocation module is therefore coupled with an inventory-based forest dynamics module and a partial-equilibrium market module in a national-level forest sector model for France (FFSM++). Running long-term scenarios (until 2100), we show the implication of an active management policy on forest composition: when the most profitable option drives forest investments, coniferous forests are generally preferred over broadleaved ones. This result is, however, reappraised when the risk aversion of forest owners is explicitly considered in the model, given the higher risk associated with the former. We further show the strong stability of forest ecosystems that, due to the very long cycles, undergoes very small variations in volume stocks, even in scenarios where the initial forest regeneration is strongly influenced.     

A Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis Model Based on ELECTRE TRI-C for Erosion Risk Assessment in Agricultural Areas

This paper deals with a real-world decision-aiding problem for zoning the risk of erosion, total suspended solids emissions, and ecological consequences of their transfers towards the streams. One of these consequences is the decrease of fishes into the streams in agricultural watersheds, because of the clogging of spawning areas. Given the multiple criteria nature of the problem, the originality of our research is to adapt a new decision-aiding sorting method, ELECTRE TRI-C, for identifying risk zones in rural areas, where measures must be taken. The developed model was applied in a small watershed (Low Normandy, France) where the objective was to assess the most appropriate intervention for protecting the reproduction habitat of the salmonid fishes. Agricultural parcels were evaluated on multiple criteria for grouping them into four risk categories, which are related to risk levels as well as priorities on the improvement works. The decision-aiding sorting model is co-constructed, within a constructive approach, through an interaction process between decision-aiding analysts, environmental experts, and local actors for improving transparency and communication on the results. This model is linked with a geographical information system (GIS) for assessing a set of criteria and the visualization of the farming parcels along with their type of intervention they should be submitted to best practices. The assignment results were validated by the environmental experts. These results have a strong impact on the agricultural practices of the farmers into the watersheds. The model proposed in this paper can be considered as a useful decision aid tool in any regions for implementing public agricultural and environmental policies for protecting the ecological areas.     

Quantifying the Effects of Forest Management Strategies on the Production of Forest Values: Timber,Carbon, Oxygen,Water, and Soil

Forest management practices alter forest structure quantified with ecosystem characteristics and values. In this paper, we utilized a forest management simulation model to assess the effects of three forest management strategies focusing on timber production, carbon sequestration, oxygen production, soil erosion, and water production of a forest management unit in Turkey. A forest simulation model “ETÇAPSimülasyon” was developed and used to project forest ecosystem development over 100 years under three forest management policies of timber-oriented forest management (TFM), multipurpose forest management (MFM), and no intervention (NI). The results showed that TFM strategy produced more timber and its net present value than MFM and NI strategies did. The amount of carbon sequestration and oxygen production potential was also found to be the highest with TFM strategy than with the MFM and NI strategies. Compared with the other strategies, however, NI strategy produced the highest amount of water production and soil losses over the planning horizon. The effects of a forest management strategy depend mainly on the initial forest structure, the rate of development and the level of forest management interventions. Therefore, forest dynamics under various management strategies should be explained before the final management decision. Understanding long-term effects of any management strategies on forest structure will provide the basis for better reaching the management objectives.     

浅析新疆环境应急管理与决策支持系统

针对在处理、处置突发性环境污染事故中存在的突出问题,阐述了利用GIS等技术在设计开发新疆环境应急管理与决策支持系统的总体设计理念,对其总体应用框架、主要应用功能等进行了分析。该系统设计既满足应急管理需要又考虑了污染源日常管理的工作需要,将在实际应用中发挥重要作用。     

Towards the harmonization between National Forest Inventory and Forest Condition Monitoring. Consistency of plot allocation and effect of tree selection methods on sample statistics in Italy

In the frame of a process aiming at harmonizing National Forest Inventory (NFI) and ICP Forests Level I Forest Condition Monitoring (FCM) in Italy, we investigated (a) the long-term consistency between FCM sample points (a subsample of the first NFI, 1985, NFI_1) and recent forest area estimates (after the second NFI, 2005, NFI_2) and (b) the effect of tree selection method (tree-based or plot-based) on sample composition and defoliation statistics. The two investigations were carried out on 261 and 252 FCM sites, respectively. Results show that some individual forest categories (larch and stone pine, Norway spruce, other coniferous, beech, temperate oaks and cork oak forests) are over-represented and others (hornbeam and hophornbeam, other deciduous broadleaved and holm oak forests) are under-represented in the FCM sample. This is probably due to a change in forest cover, which has increased by 1,559,200 ha from 1985 to 2005. In case of shift from a tree-based to a plot-based selection method, 3,130 (46.7 %) of the original 6,703 sample trees will be abandoned, and 1,473 new trees will be selected. The balance between exclusion of former sample trees and inclusion of new ones will be particularly unfavourable for conifers (with only 16.4 % of excluded trees replaced by new ones) and less for deciduous broadleaves (with 63.5 % of excluded trees replaced). The total number of tree species surveyed will not be impacted, while the number of trees per species will, and the resulting (plot-based) sample composition will have a much larger frequency of deciduous broadleaved trees. The newly selected trees have—in general—smaller diameter at breast height (DBH) and defoliation scores. Given the larger rate of turnover, the deciduous broadleaved part of the sample will be more impacted. Our results suggest that both a revision of FCM network to account for forest area change and a plot-based approach to permit statistical inference and avoid bias in the tree sample composition in terms of DBH (and likely age and structure) are desirable in Italy. As the adoption of a plot-based approach will keep a large share of the trees formerly selected, direct tree-by-tree comparison will remain possible, thus limiting the impact on the time series comparability. In addition, the plot-based design will favour the integration with NFI_2.     

A Watershed-based Cumulative Risk Impact Analysis: Environmental Vulnerability and Impact Criteria

Swine Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) have received much attention in recent years. As a result, a watershed-based screening tool, the Cumulative Risk Index Analysis (CRIA), was developed to assess the cumulative impacts of multiple CAFO facilities in a watershedsubunit. The CRIA formula calculates an index number based on: 1) the area of one or more facilities compared to the area of the watershed subunit, 2) the average of the environmental vulnerability criteria, and 3) the average of the industry-specific impact criteria. Each vulnerability or impact criterion is ranked on a 1 to 5 scale, with a low rank indicating low environmental vulnerability or impact and a high rank indicating high environmental vulnerability or impact. The individual criterion ranks, as well as the total CRIA score, can be used to focus the environmental analysis and facilitate discussions with industry, public, and other stakeholders in the Agency decision-making process.     

重庆某工业园土壤重金属污染特征、风险及源解析

以重庆市某工业园区表层土壤为研究对象,探讨了土壤重金属在不同季节的污染特征,利用污染指数法、健康风险模型和主成分/绝对主成分得分受体模型进行风险评价和源分析。结果表明:不同季节土壤样品间各重金属含量差异显著。35.5%的样品中汞含量超出土壤污染风险筛选值,其他元素未超标。与土壤背景值相比,各元素表现出不同程度的富集,汞超标约110~1300倍。内梅罗指数显示土壤整体和汞元素处于轻度污染及以下,其他元素为安全。潜在生态危害指数显示,土壤整体和汞属于极强污染,镉属于轻微~强污染,其他元素为轻微污染。土壤重金属总致癌风险为2.6×10^-7~1.0×10^-5,总非致癌风险熵均小于1,砷存在致癌风险,主要通过经口摄入暴露。秋季中,汞、六价铬、铅、镍、砷和铜来自工业源,镉主要来源于自然成因。春季中,镉和铅来自交通、冶金和燃煤等排放,镍、砷和铜源于冶炼和金属表面处理等排放,汞主要来自化工生产和燃料燃烧。交通运输、工业生产和燃料燃烧等污染的排放是土壤重金属的主要来源,今后应加强园区内汞、砷和镉的源头减排和治理。     

珠海码头内铜污染现状及生态风险分析

以珠海码头作为调查船舶防污漆使用影响的对象,分析了珠海周边海域码头内表层沉积物与海水中的重金属含量,以Cu元素为讨论重点,对其进行污染程度与潜在生态危害的评估。结果表明,码头内表层沉积物中Cu含量明显高于码头外沉积物,离市区较近的香洲码头和金沙滩码头内沉积物受到中等至较高程度的Cu污染,海岛东澳岛码头海水易流通,因此受污染程度较低。使用Hakanson生态危害指数法对沉积物进行评估的结果为低潜在生态危害,但码头内海水中Cu元素含量已高于生态安全限值。     

Zoning a Protected Area: Proposal Based on a Multi-thematic Approach and Final Decision

The Madrid Regional Government (Central Spain) proposes a zone of the Guadarrama Mountains to be declared as a National Park. This paper reports on the zoning method developed to this end. The procedure followed considers compatibility of land uses with landscape characteristics and proposes protecting a part of the zone through declaration of National Park status and declaring another part as a Regional Park. The approach is based upon a multivariate environmental analysis aimed at zoning for optimal location of potential activities. The zoning permits the design of protected areas following the criteria underlying the declaration of these two categories in accordance with the Spanish environmental legislation in force. A practical tool for policy decision-making is provided. However, the final decision taken by policymakers in the design and zoning of protected areas differed from the model output used by the scientists. This is discussed in the paper to illustrate the interactions between political decision-making and scientific modelling.     

洮滆水系湖库富营养化生态风险的特点与比较

茅东水库、长荡湖、涌湖、太湖竺山湾是洮滆水系从上游到下游排列的4大典型湖库,2008年的监测分析表明,氮、磷是该水系湖库富营养化的主要污染因子,并沿流域呈加剧趋势,上下游TP质量浓度为0.081～0.296 mg/L,差异小,而TN质量浓度为0.314～5.67 mg/L,差异大,长荡湖到涌湖是洮滆水系首要污染物TN快...     

Structural change and environmental impact: Empirical evidence on thirty-one countries in east and west

Although structural change in many industralized countries has increased since the early 1970s, the environmental policy aspects of this change have hardly been investigated. The more pronounced the positive environmental effects of structural change become, the more positive will be the structure-oriented options of environmental policy.Using a set of four indicators, in this study thirty-one Eastern and Western industrialized countries are being tested with regard to economic structure and environmentally significant structural change. The authors come to the conclusion that the strong correlation between economic performance and environmental pollution, unequivocal in 1970, had become much weaker by 1985. The de-linking of economic growth from material-intensive industrial production processes is particularly evident. In some cases automatic environmental benefits (environmental gratis effects) were generated in this way.However, the development profiles of the countries investigated differ greatly. There are countries, in particular Sweden, with absolute structural improvement in the ecological sense; countries like Japan and Norway with structural improvement relative to economic growth; and countries, including most Eastern and Southern European states, featuring no structural improvement or even environmentally negative structural change.The question is being left open to what extent the modernized economic structures are accompanied by modernized forms of environmental pollution.     

建立省级环境与健康调查及风险评估体系研究思路——以江苏省探索实践为例

以环境与健康调查及风险评估研究为出发点,江苏省于2018年设立了"江苏省环境与健康调查与风险评估体系建设"环保科研重大技术攻关类项目,根据江苏省行业、地区、流域特点以及江苏省环境与健康调查及风险评估工作基础,结合国内环境与健康研究现状,深入开展典型行业、地区、流域环境与健康调查、环境与健康问题分析、环境健康风险评价,建设环境与健康重点实验室,探索并实践环境与健康理念融入环境保护管理的研究任务,为全面开展环境与健康监测业务化运行以及环境健康风险评估进行技术实践和储备,为江苏省环境与健康管理工作提供支撑。     

江苏省风险管控和修复名录地块污染特征分析及对策建议

根据《中华人民共和国土壤污染防治法》,建立并公开《江苏省建设用地土壤污染风险管控和修复名录》（以下简称“名录”）。对2020—2022中江苏省纳入名录的116个污染地块开展系统性分析,结果表明：纳入名录的污染地块数量和面积与地区经济发展水平有关,南京、无锡、常州和苏州排名前列;土水复合污染地块占53%,其中64%的地块地下水最大污染深度大于同一地块土壤最大污染深度;共统计到167种污染物,重金属、石油烃和多环芳烃最为常见,约50%的污染物不在我国现行建设用地土壤及地下水污染评价标准中;已完成修复并移出名录的31个地块中,17%的污染土壤和25%的污染地下水采用原位修复技术。提出了完善土壤环境质量标准体系,探索土水协同治理修复模式,推进土壤污染绿色低碳修复等针对性的对策建议,为促进土壤、地下水环境管理和污染防治行业科学发展提供参考依据。     

Towards a holistic approach for the urban environment and its impact on energy utilisation in buildings: the ATREUS project

Enhanced urbanisation and its impact on the urban climate have a significant impact on the energy behaviour of buildings. Rising standards in indoor environmental quality lead to higher energy consumption values for heating, ventilation and air-conditioning purposes. ATREUS is a research and training network launched recently aiming to cover some of these aspects to enable a better understanding of the phenomena as well as providing high quality training for young European researchers. Having completed one year of work, some indicative results of the approach used within ATREUS have already produced both methodological approaches and combinatorial case studies; an example of the latter, based on the Thessaloniki experiment and the results produced by an extended field survey, will be discussed.     

Coastal Flood Risk Analysis Using Landsat-7 ETM+ Imagery and SRTM DEM: A Case Study of Izmir, Turkey

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise (MSLR) in the twentieth century in response to global climate change. If this acceleration remains constant, then some coastal areas are most likely to be inundated by the year 2100. The ability to identify the differential vulnerability of coastlines to future inundation hazards as result of global climate change is necessary for timely actions to be taken. Yildiz et al. (Journal of Mapping, 17, 1-75, 2003) reported that the local MSLR in the city of Izmir rose at a rate of 6.8 +/- 0.9 mm year(-1) between 1984 and 2002. In this study, the spatial distribution of the coastal inundation hazards of Izmir region was determined using not only land-use and land-cover (LULC) types derived from the maximum likelihood classification of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multi-spectral image set but also the classification of the digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM). Coastal areas with elevations of 2 and 5 m above mean sea-level vulnerable to inundation were found to cover 2.1 and 3.7% of the study region (6,107 km(2)), respectively. Our findings revealed that Menemen plain along Gediz river, and the settlements of Karsiyaka, Alacati, Aliaga, Candarli and Selcuk are at high risk in order of decreasing vulnerability to permanent and episodic inundation by 2100 under the high MSLR scenarios of 20 to 50 mm year(-1).     

新疆某特高压直流换流站电磁环境水平及管理对策浅析

本文通过对新疆已建成运行的某特高压直流输换流站的电磁环境水平进行分析,阐述新疆特高压直流换流站的电磁环境水平,其中地面合成场强95%值的最大值为3.250 kV/m,并提出电磁环境管理的对策。     

Emergy Analysis of Human Carrying Capacity and Regional Sustainability: an Example Using the State of Maine

The human carrying capacity for a region at a specified standard of living depends on the economic and environmental resources of the region and the exchange of resources across regional boundaries. The length of time that a human population living at a given standard can be sustained depends on the rates of use and renewal of the resource base. All environmental, economic, and social resources are produced as a result of energy transformations; therefore, the energy required for their production can be specified and evaluated in common terms by converting their energy values into emergy. Emergy is defined as the available energy of one kind, previously used up directly and indirectly to make a product or service. Its unit is the emjoule. Emergy values and indices are used to evaluate the resource base for Maine, a politically defined region, and to estimate its human carrying capacity at the 1980 standard of living and for possible future resource bases. Emergy indices for Maine are compared with similar indices for Florida, Texas, and the United States to demonstrate variations in human carrying capacity and sustainability among different regions. The 1980 standard of living for Maine, Florida, Texas, and the Nation as measured by emergy use per person fell within a relatively narrow range of 3.4E16 to 4.3E16 solar emjoules y-1. The human carrying capacity for a region is considered within a pulsing paradigm for sustainability and within the constraints provided by a renewable resource base. For example, in the short-term the developed human carrying capacity for Maine is largely determined by the fuel emergy inflow relative to renewable emergy resources. If purchased emergy inflows relative to Maine's renewable emergy increase to the average ratio for a developed country around 1980, the population living in Maine at 1980 standards could increase to 2.9 million or 2.6 times Maine's 1980 population. In contrast, the human carrying capacity based on Maine's renewable resources alone was 0.37 million people at the 1980 standard of living or 33% of the 1980 population.