Vulnerability of Water Systems to the Effects of Climate Change and Urbanization: A Comparison of Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon (USA)

The coupled processes of climate change and urbanization pose challenges for water resource management in cities worldwide. Comparing the vulnerabilities of water systems in Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon, this paper examines (1) exposures to these stressors, (2) sensitivities to the associated impacts, and (3) adaptive capacities for responding to realized or anticipated impacts. Based on a case study and survey-based approach, common points of vulnerability include: rising exposures to drier, warmer summers, and suburban growth; increasing sensitivities based on demand hardening; and limited capacities due to institutional and pro-growth pressures. Yet each region also exhibits unique vulnerabilities. Comparatively, Portland shows: amplified exposures to seasonal climatic extremes, heightened sensitivity based on less diversified municipal water sources and policies that favor more trees and other irrigated vegetation, and diminished adaptive capacities because of limited attention to demand management and climate planning for water resources. Phoenix exhibits elevated exposure from rapid growth, heightened sensitivities due to high water demands and widespread increases in residential and commercial uses, and limited adaptive capacities due to weak land use planning and “smart growth” strategies. Unique points of vulnerability suggest pathways for adapting to urban-environmental change, whether through water management or land planning. Greater coordination between the land and water sectors would substantially reduce vulnerabilities in the study regions and beyond.     

Establishing the green neighbourhood: approaches to neighbourhood-scale sustainability certification in Portland,Oregon

ABSTRACT

While local governance is widely acknowledged as an important element in the pursuit of sustainability, local action alone is insufficient to produce lasting change. One recent solution to this quandary has been the production of certification frameworks that encourage sustainable development at the neighbourhood scale by providing local actors with standardised definitions of sustainable practices. While these frameworks facilitate the spread of sustainable development strategies between local communities, there are significant contrasts between their approaches to encouraging local sustainable development that simultaneously fulfils global objectives. This article explores these contrasts through two neighbourhood-scale sustainability certification frameworks: LEED for Neighborhood Development (LEED-ND) and the EcoDistricts Protocol. Analysis of these frameworks in the context of two centrally-located neighbourhoods in Portland, Oregon, reveals substantial contrasts between the two frameworks in terms of the relative flexibility of their sustainability metrics, the time frame over which decisions regarding sustainable development are made, and community involvement in the process of pursuing specific objectives. Furthermore, it suggests that greater flexibility in the application of standards, continuous governance, and greater community involvement lead to more dynamic and holistic forms of sustainability that evolve as both local community needs and broader understandings of sustainability change over time.     

Changes in Use of Three Oregon, USA, Wildernesses

/ Several studies have suggested that use of wildernesses within national forests is declining. Data from three wildernesses in Oregon (based on mandatory permits and voluntary registration) indicate that between 1976 and 1991 in two areas and between 1980 and 1993 in another area the number of recreational visitor days (RVDs) has declined between 23% and 63%. However, the number of visits has remained roughly stable in one area and more than doubled in the other two. The disparity between the two measures of use may be the result of shifts from mainly overnight to mainly day use in these wildernesses. Day use has increased from about 30% to over 60% of all visits. Trends are different enough in each wilderness to warrant independent analyses over time. Management implications of using different measures of use as well as observed trends are discussed.KEY WORDS: Wilderness management; Wilderness use; Trends     

Urban Sprawl and Rural Landscapes: perceptions of landscape as amenity in Portland, Oregon

In the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan region, an urban growth boundary (UGB) was established in 1979 to protect farm and forest lands from urban encroachment. Most of the literature on the impact of Oregon's land-use legislation has been on the urban side of the issue--primarily the relative success Portland has had in containing urban sprawl. The landscape component of this rural transformation is typically considered only as a passive backdrop to urban expansion. Portland provides an excellent site to examine the relationship city-dwellers have to nearby agricultural areas. Rapid urban growth in the 1990s pushed suburban development to the edge of the UGB creating stark contrasts between urban and rural land uses in parts of the metropolitan area. This study examines the impact of the UGB on rural landscape change in Portland. We combine findings from land-use analysis and surveys of urban and rural residents to suggest ways to merge the amenity values of landscape with planning policy regarding the UGB.     

Urban Sprawl and Rural Landscapes: Perceptions of landscape as amenity in Portland,Oregon

In the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan region, an urban growth boundary (UGB) was established in 1979 to protect farm and forest lands from urban encroachment. Most of the literature on the impact of Oregon's land-use legislation has been on the urban side of the issue—primarily the relative success Portland has had in containing urban sprawl. The landscape component of this rural transformation is typically considered only as a passive backdrop to urban expansion. Portland provides an excellent site to examine the relationship city-dwellers have to nearby agricultural areas. Rapid urban growth in the 1990s pushed suburban development to the edge of the UGB creating stark contrasts between urban and rural land uses in parts of the metropolitan area. This study examines the impact of the UGB on rural landscape change in Portland. We combine findings from land-use analysis and surveys of urban and rural residents to suggest ways to merge the amenity values of landscape with planning policy regarding the UGB.     

Use of agricultural land evaluation and site assessment in Linn County,Oregon, USA

Oregon state law requires each county in the state to identify agricultural land and enact policies and regulations to protect agricultural land use. State guidelines encourage the preservation of large parcels of agricultural land and discourage partitioning of agricultural land and construction of nonfarm dwellings in agricultural areas. A land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) system was developed in Linn County to aid in the identification of agricultural land and provide assistance to decision makers concerning the relative merits of requests to partition existing parcels of ricultural land and introduce nonagricultural uses.Land evaluation was determined by calculating soil potential ratings for each agricultural soil in the county based on the soil potentials for winter wheat, annual ryegrass, permanent pasture, and irrigated sweet corn. Soil potential ratings were expressed on a scale of 0 to 150 points. The land evaluation score for a parcel consists of the weighted average soil potential rating for all of the soils in the parcel, weighted by the percentage of each soil present in the parcel.Site assessment was based on the size of a parcel and on the amount of existing conflict between agricultural and nonagricultural uses, particularly rural residential uses, both adjacent to and in the vicinity of a parcel. Parcel size refers to both size in relation to a typical field and size in relation to a typical farm unit. Conflict takes into account the number of nonfarm dwellings within 1/4 mile (0.4 km) of a parcel, the amount of the perimeter that adjoins conflicting land uses, and the residential density adjacent to the parcel. Empirical scales were derived for assigning points to each of the site assessment factors. Both parcel size and conflict were worth 75 points in the model. For parcel size, 45 points were allocated to field size and 30 points to farm-unit size. For conflict, 30 points were allocated to nonfarm dwellings within 1/4 mile and 45 points to perimeter conflicts.The LESA model was validated by testing on 23 parcels in Linn County for which requests to partition and/or convert to nonagricultural uses had been received by the County Planning Department. This testing was an essential part of the development process, as it pointed out inconsistencies and errors in the model and allowed continuous adjustment of factors and point scales. The results of application of the final model to three of the case studies are presented to illustrate the concepts.Three possible uses of the information generated by the LESA system include determining the relative agricultural value of a parcel, determining grades of agricultural land suitability, and determining the impacts of changing land use on other parcels in the vicinity. Relative agricultural value is a direct outcome of application of the evaluation criteria in the LESA model. Good, marginal, and nonagricultural grades of agricultural suitability were determined by examining the data from all 23 test cases and establishing threshold point values for soil quality, conflict, parcel size, and total LESA score. Impact analyses were not done in this study, but could be achieved by calculating LESA scores for all parcels possibly affected by a land-use change both before and after a proposed change. All three applications fall short of making a specific land-use decision, but they do provide information that should be of value to the local jurisdiction charged with making such decisions.     

Multi-scale analysis of oxygen demand trends in an urbanizing Oregon watershed, USA

Human alteration of the landscape has an extensive influence on the biogeochemical processes that drive oxygen cycling in streams. We estimated trends from the mid-1990s to 2003, using the seasonal Mann-Kendall's test, for percent saturation dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), and ammonia-nitrogen (NH(3)-N) for 12 sites in the Rock Creek watershed, northwest Oregon, USA. In order to understand the influence of landscape change, scale, and stormwater runoff management on dissolved oxygen trends, we calculated land cover change through aerial photo interpretation at full-basin, local (near sample point) basin, and 100m stream buffer scales, for the years 1994 and 2000. Significant (p < or = 0.05) trends occurred in DO (increasing at five sites), COD (decreasing at seven sites), TKN (decreasing at five sites, increasing at one site), and NH(3)-N (decreasing at one site, increasing at one site). Significant land cover change occurred in agricultural land cover (-8% for the entire basin area) and residential land cover (+10% for the entire basin area) (p < or = 0.05). Correlation results indicated that: (1) forest cover negatively influenced COD at the full basin scale and positively influences NH(3)-N at local scales, (2) residential land cover influenced oxygen demand variables at local scales, (3) agricultural land cover did not influence oxygen demand, (4) local topography negatively influenced TKN and NH(3)-N, and (5) stormwater runoff management infrastructure correlated positively with COD at the local scale. This study indicates that landscape factors influencing DO conditions for the study streams act at multiple scales, suggesting that better knowledge of scale-process interactions can guide watershed managers' decision making in order to maintain improving water quality conditions.     

Social Acceptability of Water Resource Management: A Conceptual Approach and Empirical Findings from Portland,Oregon1

Abstract: Surface water resources in urban areas serve multiple functions ranging from recreation to wildlife habitat. As a result, diverse values influence people’s views about resource protection, potentially leading to conflicting interests. In metropolitan Portland, Oregon, natural resource planning has recently focused on habitat restoration as well as stormwater and pollution mitigation, especially through the protection of riparian areas. Due to opposition over proposed regulations in the study region, this research examines public attitudes about an array of resource management efforts. The primary research question is: what is the extent of positive–negative attitudes about water resource protection, and what theoretical dimensions underlie diverse judgments? After empirical survey results are presented, I outline a conceptual approach for future assessments of environmental attitudes while highlighting important value‐based dimensions of judgments. Although flexible, the framework allows broad comparisons to advance knowledge about the social acceptability of varied water resource management approaches across diverse places and contexts.     

Trends and patterns in section 404 permitting requiring compensatory mitigation in Oregon and Washington,USA

The effects of permitting decisions made under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act for which compensatory mitigation was required were examined. Information was compiled on permits issued in Oregon (January 1977–January 1987) and Washington (1980–1986). Data on the type of project permitted, wetland impacted, and mitigation project were collected and analyzed. The records of the Portland and Seattle District Offices of the US Army Corps of Engineers and of Environmental Protection Agency Region X were the primary sources of information. The 58 permits issued during the years of concern in Oregon document impacts to 82 wetlands and the creation of 80. The total area of wetland impacted was 74 ha while 42 ha were created, resulting in a net loss of 32 ha or 43%. The 35 permits issued in Washington document impacts to 72 wetlands and the creation of 52. The total area of wetland impacted was 61 ha while 45 ha were created, resulting in a net loss of 16 ha or 26%. In both states, the number of permits requiring compensation increased with time. The area of the impacted and created wetlands tended to be ≤0.40 ha. Permitted activity occurred primarily west of the Cascade Mountains and in the vicinity of urban centers. Estuarine and palustrine wetlands were impacted and created most frequently. The wetland types created most often were not always the same as those impacted; therefore, local gains and losses of certain types occurred. In both states the greatest net loss in area was in freshwater marshes. This study illustrates how Section 404 permit data might be used in managing a regional wetland resource. However, because the data readily available were either incomplete or of poor quality, the process of gathering information was very labor intensive. Since similar analyses would be useful to resource managers and scientists from other areas, development of an up-to-date standardized data base is recommended.     

Local government policies toward environmentally sensitive areas in British Columbia,Canada; Washington and Oregon,USA

While there has been sustained debate on the issue of provincial and state versus local government environmental planning, maintaining privately owned natural resources in the public interest is increasingly viewed as beyond the scope of local governments alone. This paper describes and compares province- and state-level mandates and options for local governments (i.e., city, county, or district) to regulate land uses of environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) in British Columbia in Canada and in Washington and Oregon in the United States. We define ESAs as landscape elements or places that are vital to the long-term maintenance of biological diversity, soil, water, and other natural resources, especially as they relate to human health, safety, and welfare, both on-site and in a regional context. Underlying similarities are that all three jurisdictions legally express the need for land-use planning by local governments in managing ESAs. Although all three jurisdictions exhibit similar problems in their attempt to accomplish this, ESA planning by local governments is an optional process in British Columbia and Washington but mandatory in Oregon. Furthermore, actual processes prescribed by each of the three jurisdictions are quite different. The information base upon which local regulation of privately held ESAs depends is variable, both within and between the province- and statelevel jurisdictions. Other than for some specific water-related resources, standard definitions and inventory methods for ESAs are lacking, as is coordination among local governments or among the province- and state-level governments. This study concludes that there is a need for a regional environmental information system in the Pacific Northwest based upon an integrated and scientific approach toward ESA structures and functions.     

Development of a Bird Integrity Index: Measuring Avian Response to Disturbance in the Blue Mountains of Oregon, USA

The Bird Integrity Index (BII) presented here uses bird assemblage information to assess human impacts to 28 stream reaches in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. Eighty-one candidate metrics were extracted from bird survey data for testing. The metrics represented aspects of bird taxonomic richness, tolerance or intolerance to human disturbance, dietary preferences, foraging techniques, and nesting strategies that were expected to be positively or negatively affected by human activities in the region. To evaluate the responsiveness of each metric, it was plotted against an index of reach and watershed disturbance that included attributes of land use/land cover, road density, riparian cover, mining impacts, and percent area in clearcut and partial-cut logging. Nine of the 81 candidate bird metrics remained after eliminating unresponsive and highly correlated metrics. Individual metric scores ranged from 0 to 10, and BII scores varied between 0 and 100. BII scores varied from 78.6 for a minimally disturbed, reference stream reach to 30.4 for the most highly disturbed stream reach. The BII responded clearly to varying riparian conditions and to the cumulative effects of disturbances, such as logging, grazing, and mining, which are common in the mountains of eastern Oregon. This BII for eastern Oregon was compared to an earlier BII developed for the agricultural and urban disturbance regime of the Willamette Valley in western Oregon. The BII presented here was sensitive enough to distinguish differences in condition among stream riparian zones with disturbances that were not as obvious or irreversible as those in the agricultural/urban conditions of western Oregon.     

Case study: examining the contribution of historical sources of lead in urban soils in Portland,Maine, USA

While the presence of lead in urban soils from residential lead paint and leaded gasoline is well documented, the relative contribution of lead from area historical industrial activities is not. This study examined the connection between historical industrial sources of lead in Portland, Maine, USA from 1860 to 1970 to current, spatial distributions of soil lead. Collecting 1859 surface and 122 sub-surface soil samples in accordance with USEPA's Lead Safe Yard Protocols, lead concentrations varied from 9 mg/kg to >100,000 mg/kg with most of the samples greater than USEPA's critical value for lead (400 mg/kg). Using historical documents, probable sources of lead were mapped. In comparing two datasets, no clear relationship emerged. Findings were hampered by inability to sample under large areas of impervious surfaces and private properties. Because of lead's immobility in soil, one would expect decreasing concentration with depth, but lead concentrations varied with depth and location. The haphazard dumping of lead-contaminated industrial waste and the relocation of contaminated fill are likely factors. These findings suggest that in urban areas where multiple historical sources of lead existed, surface sampling to determine presence of lead may not be sufficient to protect public health.     

A Simple Model that Identifies Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Estuarine and Estuary-Ecotone Habitat Locations for Salmonids in Oregon, USA

Diadromous aquatic species that cross a diverse range of habitats (including marine, estuarine, and freshwater) face different effects of climate change in each environment. One such group of species is the anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). Studies of the potential effects of climate change on salmonids have focused on both marine and freshwater environments. Access to a variety of estuarine habitat has been shown to enhance juvenile life-history diversity, thereby contributing to the resilience of many salmonid species. Our study is focused on the effect of sea-level rise on the availability, complexity, and distribution of estuarine, and low-freshwater habitat for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead (anadromous O. mykiss), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) along the Oregon Coast under future climate change scenarios. Using LiDAR, we modeled the geomorphologies of five Oregon estuaries and estimated a contour associated with the current mean high tide. Contour intervals at 1- and 2-m increments above the current mean high tide were generated, and changes in the estuary morphology were assessed. Because our analysis relied on digital data, we compared three types of digital data in one estuary to assess the utility of different data sets in predicting the changes in estuary shape. For each salmonid species, changes in the amount and complexity of estuarine edge habitats varied by estuary. The simple modeling approach we applied can also be used to identify areas that may be most amenable to pre-emptive restoration actions to mitigate or enhance salmonid habitat under future climatic conditions.     

Ecological and economic impacts of green roofs and permeable pavements at the city level: the case of Corvallis,Oregon

A city's spatial footprint is covered by extensive impervious building roofs and paved surfaces, which contribute to greater storm-water runoff, more surface pollutants, and less carbon sequestration, hence, worse ecosystem services. This research conducts an empirical study on the ecological and economic impacts of a citywide adoption of green roofs and permeable pavements in Corvallis, OR. The effects on ecosystem services of using green roofs and pervious pavements for a low impact development are modelled using Integrated Value of Ecosystem Services Trade-offs and compared to those from the City's current conventional development without green roofs and pervious pavements. The differences are analysed for ecological impact by storm-water yield, storm-water purification, and carbon sequestration and economic impact by a cost-benefit comparison. The results indicate that low impact development, especially intensive green roofs on commercial/industrial buildings and permeable pavements for parking lots, plays a significant role, even with a higher initial implementation cost, for long-term urban sustainability.     

Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.     

Environmental,economic and social costs and benefits of a packaging waste management system: A Portuguese case study

The impact of the management of packaging waste on the environment, economic growth and job creation is analyzed in this paper. This integrated assessment intends to cover a gap in the literature for this type of studies, using the specific case study of the Portuguese packaging waste management system (SIGRE).The net environmental benefits associated with the management of packaging waste, are calculated using the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. The results show that, for the categories studied, the impacts associated to SIGRE's various activities are surpassed by the benefits associated to material and energy recovery, with special focus on recycling. For example, in 2011 SIGRE avoided the emission of 116 kt CO₂ equiv. – the equivalent carbon emission of the electricity consumption of 124.000 households in Portugal.The economic impact of SIGRE is evaluated through Input–Output Analysis. It was found that SIGRE's activities also have a significant economic impact. For example, their added value are ranked amongst the upper third of the economic activities with highest multiplier effect at national level: this means that for each Euro of value added generated within SIGRE, 1.25 additional € are added to the rest of the economy (multiplier effect of 2.25).Regarding the social impacts of SIGRE, the number of direct jobs associated with the system is estimated to be more than two thousand and three hundred workers. Out of these, 83% are connected to the management of municipal waste packaging (selective collection and sorting), 15% are connected to the management of non-municipal packaging waste and only 2% are connected to the Sociedade Ponto Verde (SPV, green dot society in English) – the management entity responsible for SIGRE.In general terms, the results obtained provide quantitative support to the EEA (2011) suggestion that moving up the waste hierarchy – from landfilling to recycling – creates jobs and boosts the economy.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

Environmental and economic comparisons of manure application methods in farming systems

Alternative methods for applying livestock manure to no-till soils involve environmental and economic trade-offs. A process-level farm simulation model (Integrated Farm System Model) was used to evaluate methods for applying liquid dairy (Bos taurus L.) and swine (Sus scrofa L.) manure, including no application, broadcast spreading with and without incorporation by tillage, band application with soil aeration, and shallow disk injection. The model predicted ammonia emissions, nitrate leaching, and phosphorus (P) runoff losses similar to those measured over 4 yr of field trials. Each application method was simulated over 25 yr of weather on three Pennsylvania farms. On a swine and cow-calf beef operation under grass production, shallow disk injection increased profit by $340 yr(-1) while reducing ammonia nitrogen and soluble P losses by 48 and 70%, respectively. On a corn (Zea mays L.)-and-grass-based grazing dairy farm, shallow disk injection reduced ammonia loss by 21% and soluble P loss by 76% with little impact on farm profit. Incorporation by tillage and band application with aeration provided less environmental benefit with a net decrease in farm profit. On a large corn-and-alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)-based dairy farm where manure nutrients were available in excess of crop needs, incorporation methods were not economically beneficial, but they provided environmental benefits with relatively low annual net costs ($13 to $18 cow). In all farming systems, shallow disk injection provided the greatest environmental benefit at the least cost or greatest profit for the producer. With these results, producers are better informed when selecting manure application equipment.     

Estimating the benefits and costs to mountain bikers of changes in trail characteristics,access fees,and site closures: choice experiments and benefits transfer

Mountain biking is an increasingly popular leisure pursuit. Consequences are trail degradation and conflicts with hikers and other users. Resource managers often attempt to resolve these problems by closing trails to mountain biking. In order to estimate the impact of these developments, a model has been devised that predicts the effects of changes in trail characteristics and introduction of access fees, and correlates these with biker preference on trail selection. It estimates each individual's per-ride consumer's surplus associated with implementing different policies. The surplus varies significantly as a function of each individual's gender, budget, and interest in mountain biking. Estimation uses stated preference data, specifically choice experiments. Hypothetical mountain bike trails were created and each surveyed biker was asked to make five pair-wise choices. A benefit-transfer simulation is used to show how the model and parameter estimates can be transferred to estimate the benefits and costs to mountain bikers in a specific area.